Are vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?

[Ken the cruiser]

12 hours ago, TeeRick said:

Well we are at 3150 posts so pretty good following.  We were never even labelled a "hot topic" by the editors!  It seems we are competing with the thread Captain's Club Power Up Points at over 2000 posts.  Funny!😀

Well, our thread finally got the "hot topic" label today. 😂😂

[rmalbers]

I got my first shot last weekend but I don't think I'll be cruising any time in the next year for sure, after that yes.

[Arizona Wildcat]

1 hour ago, Ken the cruiser said:

Hey, if you're an "eligible veteran" (whatever the technical definition of that is nowadays, and from the stories I've heard it's quite broad) and your local VA is offering vaccines over 55, it's worth at least showing up and asking the question. Here's what is posted on our local VA's FB page:

 

CAVHCS COVID-19 Walk-In Vaccination Clinic at Montgomery

(No Appointments Required)

*Alabama and Georgia enrolled and eligible Veterans are encouraged to attend

Montgomery VA Clinic COVID-19 Vaccination Clinic

Date: Wednesday, February 24, 2021

Time: 10 a.m. – 2 p.m. (CT)

Location: Montgomery VA Clinic (off Chantilly Parkway)

8105 Veterans Way, Montgomery, Alabama

Vaccines are available for enrolled and eligible Veterans 55 years of age and older. Veterans who are frontline essential workers and are enrolled and eligible for VA care can also receive the vaccine.

Frontline essential workers include but are not limited to:

• Firefighters

• Police officers

• Corrections officers

• Food and agricultural workers

• United States Postal Service workers

• Manufacturing workers

• Grocery store workers

• Public transit workers

• Educational sectors such as teachers, support staff and daycare workers

Same at the VA facilities in Arizona.  Appointments difficult now.  With increased shipments should be lots easier in a week or two.

 

As for cruising, the reality of some 5 billion adults around the world in poor countries that need vaccination is daunting.  Cruising is an international activity.  The vaccines will be available by early 2022 for everyone.  The challenge will be getting it into arms.

[REEtired]

2 hours ago, nocl said:

I will check with them again.

Not to muddy the waters but we’re talking VA health care and not VA compensation. Both my dad (WWII) and DH (Vietnam) did and do receive VA health care simply because they served.  Perhaps a local VSO in your area can help.  The VA is a wonderful resource for veterans. 

[nocl]

1 hour ago, Crazy planning mom said:

Given that the US will have enough supply with just what they have ordered from Pfizer and Moderna, the fact that J & J is about to approved and the fact the US already ordered 300 million from AstraZeneca and 100 million from Novavax, do you think the US will donate alot of the extra supply to Covax?

Once US needs are met and there is enough supply then I would expect that extra supply will get donated. Either that or the contract modified and the order volumes reduced and the manufacturer selling to some other country.  Depends upon how the contracts were constructed.

 

When you consider the relatively short shelf life of the vaccines.  No value keeping it on the shelf until they expire, once the demand has been met.

 

The uncertainty is if anyone is working on  putting together a system to utilize product once it has left the manufacturer and is at risk of expiring unused. That would take a degree of organization at the national level that has not yet been demonstrated.

 

Many countries will not accept even donated product once it has left the control of the manufacturer.

 

Much easier to shift purchased product directly from the manufacturer, but that assumes that you have a good handle on exactly what the demand level will be once the rush is over.

 

Would not be surprised to see a lot of product wasted during the transition from short supply to over supply. 

[nocl]

2 hours ago, REEtired said:

Not to muddy the waters but we’re talking VA health care and not VA compensation. Both my dad (WWII) and DH (Vietnam) did and do receive VA health care simply because they served.  Perhaps a local VSO in your area can help.  The VA is a wonderful resource for veterans. 

 

[TeeRick]

22 hours ago, Ken the cruiser said:

Hey, I just want to thank everyone who has contributed to this thread over these past several months. Yes, there have definitely been some interesting perspectives shared on this thread. But at the same time I've always been amazed how some of our more insightful contributors have stepped up with some very meaningful responses to bring the stress level back down, as this has definitely been some very dark times we've all been going through together.

 

And I know we're not there yet, but with the pending approval of the "one shot" J&J vaccine to go along with the massive ramping up of the production lines associated with the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, that light keeps getting brighter and brighter.

 

Now, will the cruise lines get a temporary PVSA waiver so Alaska might open up to cruise ships this coming season? Probably not. But, I'm starting to see a glimmer of hope that we may be able to go on some short Caribbean cruises this summer. Of course, that's all up to the CDC and I'm just sitting over here in the peanut gallery. But it does feel like we've past the apex of this very dark ride and the light does seem to be getting a little brighter and brighter every day. 🙃

Ken- thanks for starting the thread and trying to keep us on track!  

[TeeRick]

20 hours ago, cangelmd said:

Do you think J and J will be recommended for everyone, or just some groups, particularly younger people?

My personal opinion is the the J&J vaccine will get the same treatment and recommendations as the two mRNA vaccines.  Having a 1-shot vaccine with easier storage and distribution is a big win.  There are quite a few people on this board who have admitted to being vaccinated already.  Perhaps some have rose-colored vaccine glasses?  But the large majority of the US vaccine-willing population is still playing a frustrating waiting game.  The J&J vaccine will help the bottleneck almost immediately.  

[TeeRick]

19 hours ago, Ken the cruiser said:

Rick, are you by chance a military veteran? If so, this was just posted Feb 23rd on our local VA's FB page where veterans 55 and older can get a vaccine. You may want to see if there is one in your area offering similar walk-in services. NOTE: If not currently enrolled in the VA, it takes about 2 minutes to do so once you get there.

 

(2) Central Alabama Veterans Health Care System | Facebook

 

 

Thanks Ken.  But I am not a Veteran.  But I am happy the VA is taking care of all veterans over 55!

[TeeRick]

19 hours ago, nocl said:

If they are smart they would route the J&J vaccines to the more rural areas that have had issues with the storage requirements for Moderna and Pfizer.  Areas where it is more difficult to coordinate the second shot. Areas that also tend to be a bit lower risk than more dense urban areas.

This is a possibility but honestly this topic keeps coming up here but there seems overall to not be an issue getting vaccines to rural areas.  Maybe truly remote areas but not rural areas.  A majority of the USA is rural (by geography). There is perhaps some enhanced vaccine - resistance or mistrust in some of these areas according to some reports.  But that might be manufactured by the media.  Hard to really know until the vaccines are truly in excess and then will become apparent which areas and segments of the population are resistant. 

 

https://www.npr.org/2021/01/08/954584135/covid-19-vaccinations-are-off-to-a-slow-start-but-not-in-some-rural-areas

 

https://www.ruralhealthinfo.org/topics/covid-19/vaccination

[TeeRick]

15 hours ago, lyndarra said:

Thank you. I am aware of COVAX. Also, it was good to see that the US had rejoined WHO.

The US has not only rejoined the WHO but just initially committed $2B to COVAX with another $2B to follow.

 

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/02/18/fact-sheet-president-biden-to-take-action-on-global-health-through-support-of-covax-and-calling-for-health-security-financing/

[TrulyBlonde]

This thread is probably the most informative on CC. Lot's of good info given daily. Here is a little something I read this a.m. from an Internal Medicine Dr.

“If you’ve received both doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, and two weeks have passed since your second dose, you have good immunity and are unlikely to develop symptoms, become severely ill or die from COVID-19,” ****** explained. “We still don’t know the extent to which these vaccines convey sterilizing immunity, the type of immunity that prevents COVID-19 from establishing an infection. Sterilizing immunity differs from effective immunity in that the latter can prevent illness but still lead to asymptomatic infection. In other words: You could still get COVID-19 and spread it to others.”

[TeeRick]

15 hours ago, nocl said:

Not entirely dark but to put things in perspective the US is 340 million, the EU is 447 million. So the developed countries maybe one billion.  China, Russia and the rest of the world 6.8 billion.  At best, even if the vaccines are free it is going to take quite a while.

 

 

China and Russia have the majority of the world population outside of the USA and European countries.  Fortunately they are producing their own vaccines and are actively vaccinating.  And they are shipping vaccines and have agreements with the countries in their sphere of influence.  So it is not all being done by western countries, WHO and COVAX.  Truly a world-wide effort.

[TeeRick]

14 hours ago, Crazy planning mom said:

Given that the US will have enough supply with just what they have ordered from Pfizer and Moderna, the fact that J & J is about to approved and the fact the US already ordered 300 million from AstraZeneca and 100 million from Novavax, do you think the US will donate alot of the extra supply to Covax?

A good thought but they might keep extra supply for a while just in case the vaccinated need booster doses.  That is TBD.

[TeeRick]

9 minutes ago, TrulyBlonde said:

This thread is probably the most informative on CC. Lot's of good info given daily. Here is a little something I read this a.m. from an Internal Medicine Dr.

“If you’ve received both doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, and two weeks have passed since your second dose, you have good immunity and are unlikely to develop symptoms, become severely ill or die from COVID-19,” ****** explained. “We still don’t know the extent to which these vaccines convey sterilizing immunity, the type of immunity that prevents COVID-19 from establishing an infection. Sterilizing immunity differs from effective immunity in that the latter can prevent illness but still lead to asymptomatic infection. In other words: You could still get COVID-19 and spread it to others.”

Thanks for sharing this.  This is the current advice for those vaccinated.  It might change over the next year as more is learned from the post-vaccinated populations of the world.  But we cannot let up on masking and social distancing just yet.  But normalcy will surely return.  The vaccines are really working!

[TeeRick]

13 hours ago, nocl said:

Once US needs are met and there is enough supply then I would expect that extra supply will get donated. Either that or the contract modified and the order volumes reduced and the manufacturer selling to some other country.  Depends upon how the contracts were constructed.

 

When you consider the relatively short shelf life of the vaccines.  No value keeping it on the shelf until they expire, once the demand has been met.

 

The uncertainty is if anyone is working on  putting together a system to utilize product once it has left the manufacturer and is at risk of expiring unused. That would take a degree of organization at the national level that has not yet been demonstrated.

 

Many countries will not accept even donated product once it has left the control of the manufacturer.

 

Much easier to shift purchased product directly from the manufacturer, but that assumes that you have a good handle on exactly what the demand level will be once the rush is over.

 

Would not be surprised to see a lot of product wasted during the transition from short supply to over supply. 

Pfizer has stated that their vaccine shelf-life is 6 months stored at ultra-low freezer temperatures.  But they have not had a chance to go much beyond that given how new these mRNA vaccines are and how recently they were manufactured.  I would think mRNA formulations should be stable for a lot longer than 6 months at ultra-low temperatures.  They have every motivation to get these extended studies done.  And they are continuously doing stability studies.  And testing lyophilized (freeze-dried) formulations as well.

https://www.pfizer.com/news/hot-topics/covid_19_vaccine_u_s_distribution_fact_sheet

 

[TeeRick]

1 hour ago, TeeRick said:

China and Russia have the majority of the world population outside of the USA and European countries.  Fortunately they are producing their own vaccines and are actively vaccinating.  And they are shipping vaccines and have agreements with the countries in their sphere of influence.  So it is not all being done by western countries, WHO and COVAX.  Truly a world-wide effort.

Sorry I am correcting myself here.  I meant to say China and India.  Combined they are 2.8 Billion people out of the world's 7.8 Billion people.  And like China, India has significant vaccine manufacturing capacity and is a partner of AZ for that vaccine.  Both countries committed to vaccinate their own populations. 

[Von & John]

2 hours ago, TeeRick said:

This is a possibility but honestly this topic keeps coming up here but there seems overall to not be an issue getting vaccines to rural areas.  Maybe truly remote areas but not rural areas.  A majority of the USA is rural (by geography). There is perhaps some enhanced vaccine - resistance or mistrust in some of these areas according to some reports.  But that might be manufactured by the media.  Hard to really know until the vaccines are truly in excess and then will become apparent which areas and segments of the population are resistant. 

 

https://www.npr.org/2021/01/08/954584135/covid-19-vaccinations-are-off-to-a-slow-start-but-not-in-some-rural-areas

 

https://www.ruralhealthinfo.org/topics/covid-19/vaccination

 

For the US - Alaska has some of the most remote areas & they have done exceptional w/ the current 2 vaccines...  Many of the rural villages are 100% vaccinated for those eligible.  Of course, to survive Alaska has excelled at the logistical piece of supporting the remote areas for all goods... 

 

The 2021 Iditarod Race will soon take place, which was created to commemorate the 1925 Diptheria Serum Run to save the residents of Nome, AK...

"Nearly 100 years ago, the famous mission to deliver lifesaving serum from Nenana to Nome led by Leonhard Seppala, saved an entire community. Since March 2020, communities throughout Alaska have been faced with the COVID 19 Coronavirus pandemic. Today, Iditarod (the race) and the 1925  Serum Run have many things in common. Now, more than ever, it’s important to channel the grit and determination that allowed teams of mushers to complete this herculean effort and deliver diphtheria serum that saved countless childrens’ lives. That spirit lives on in Alaska today, and should be celebrated! "

 

Additional Great News - if the J&J Vaccine is approved tomorrow - Alaska could receive the vaccine as early as next week:

https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2021/02/24/johnson-johnson-vaccine-could-arrive-in-alaska-as-early-as-next-week/

 

[jagoffee]

2 hours ago, TrulyBlonde said:

This thread is probably the most informative on CC. Lot's of good info given daily. Here is a little something I read this a.m. from an Internal Medicine Dr.

“If you’ve received both doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, and two weeks have passed since your second dose, you have good immunity and are unlikely to develop symptoms, become severely ill or die from COVID-19,” ****** explained. “We still don’t know the extent to which these vaccines convey sterilizing immunity, the type of immunity that prevents COVID-19 from establishing an infection. Sterilizing immunity differs from effective immunity in that the latter can prevent illness but still lead to asymptomatic infection. In other words: You could still get COVID-19 and spread it to others.”

In other words, you may still be able to get COVID-19 and spread it to others.  Not could and will.  Since it was not tested it is unknown.

[4774Papa]

2 hours ago, TrulyBlonde said:

This thread is probably the most informative on CC. Lot's of good info given daily. Here is a little something I read this a.m. from an Internal Medicine Dr.

“If you’ve received both doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, and two weeks have passed since your second dose, you have good immunity and are unlikely to develop symptoms, become severely ill or die from COVID-19,” ****** explained. “We still don’t know the extent to which these vaccines convey sterilizing immunity, the type of immunity that prevents COVID-19 from establishing an infection. Sterilizing immunity differs from effective immunity in that the latter can prevent illness but still lead to asymptomatic infection. In other words: You could still get COVID-19 and spread it to others.”

Good points about Russia and China having their own vaccines, but India has the largest population in the World after China.   Not sure how well India is doing?

[deadzone1003]

In the last 7 days, the average distribution of the Moderna & Pfizer vaccine is just over 2.3 million doses per day.  Right now, the daily vaccination capacity for all states is probably over 2,000,000 though the actual daily vaccinations are lower due to spot shortages.  So, it looks like supply is at least catching up to capacity to vaccinate though still not have caught up with demand, unfortunately.   We get there sometime in April or May, i.e. supply meeting demand.  Once the J&J vaccine is available then the J&J vaccine can be distributed like the flu vaccine. 

[nocl]

3 hours ago, TeeRick said:

This is a possibility but honestly this topic keeps coming up here but there seems overall to not be an issue getting vaccines to rural areas.  Maybe truly remote areas but not rural areas.  A majority of the USA is rural (by geography). There is perhaps some enhanced vaccine - resistance or mistrust in some of these areas according to some reports.  But that might be manufactured by the media.  Hard to really know until the vaccines are truly in excess and then will become apparent which areas and segments of the population are resistant. 

 

https://www.npr.org/2021/01/08/954584135/covid-19-vaccinations-are-off-to-a-slow-start-but-not-in-some-rural-areas

 

https://www.ruralhealthinfo.org/topics/covid-19/vaccination

I am talking about the areas where people have to travel ether long distances, or remote as in the type of roads such that two trips in would be difficult.  Number of locations in Nevada and other western states come to mind. Villages in Alaska. Some of the areas in Maine and the some of the areas like the far north of Michigan, the lakes area of Wisconsin, etc. Places where towns tend to be small.  Medical facilities relatively far between.  Areas where people need to drive 40 to 50 miles (during winter conditions at this time of year) for their shots. The ability to get single shots that can be stored for long periods of time, so it can be used when someone comes to town, instead of their having to be there at a specific date and time for an appointment.

 

Those areas are currently getting reached, but by having vaccine there for specific dates.  If one is not there on those dates, it might be weeks before another event is scheduled.

[nocl]

3 hours ago, TeeRick said:

China and Russia have the majority of the world population outside of the USA and European countries.  Fortunately they are producing their own vaccines and are actively vaccinating.  And they are shipping vaccines and have agreements with the countries in their sphere of influence.  So it is not all being done by western countries, WHO and COVAX.  Truly a world-wide effort.

However even with producing their own vaccines they have vaccinated very small percentages of their population (less than 3%). Another large country with production capability is India (1%). Both China and Russia started before the US approval of Pfizer.  At the rate they are vaccinating it will take quite a while for them to even get to a substantial percentage of their populations.

[UnorigionalName]

28 minutes ago, 4774Papa said:

Good points about Russia and China having their own vaccines, but India has the largest population in the World after China.   Not sure how well India is doing?

 

They are one of the largest vaccine manufacturers in the world and I believe they manufacture the AZ vaccine.  They also believe that the health of their people and economy is more important than international IP laws and they select to ignore them in certain cases.  So by one way or another i think they will be producing a vaccine for their own population in not too long.

[nocl]

1 hour ago, Von & John said:

 

For the US - Alaska has some of the most remote areas & they have done exceptional w/ the current 2 vaccines...  Many of the rural villages are 100% vaccinated for those eligible.  Of course, to survive Alaska has excelled at the logistical piece of supporting the remote areas for all goods... 

 

The 2021 Iditarod Race will soon take place, which was created to commemorate the 1925 Diptheria Serum Run to save the residents of Nome, AK...

"Nearly 100 years ago, the famous mission to deliver lifesaving serum from Nenana to Nome led by Leonhard Seppala, saved an entire community. Since March 2020, communities throughout Alaska have been faced with the COVID 19 Coronavirus pandemic. Today, Iditarod (the race) and the 1925  Serum Run have many things in common. Now, more than ever, it’s important to channel the grit and determination that allowed teams of mushers to complete this herculean effort and deliver diphtheria serum that saved countless childrens’ lives. That spirit lives on in Alaska today, and should be celebrated! "

 

Additional Great News - if the J&J Vaccine is approved tomorrow - Alaska could receive the vaccine as early as next week:

https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2021/02/24/johnson-johnson-vaccine-could-arrive-in-alaska-as-early-as-next-week/

 

Von and John - My understanding from some relatives in Alaska, that they did cover many of the remote villages, but they were done in pretty much vaccinate the entire village at one time.  If someone was not there for the vaccination event, they would have gotten missed and for many of those villages they were one time events. Given priority because of being very high risk.  Good acceptance rate by the population.  Fortunately for many of those villages few are out this time of year.  But it would be handy to have some doses there for any that were missed.

 

How are they doing things in Talkeetna? Are they doing the vaccines at Sunshine? Steady supply or on specific days?

Edited February 25, 2021 by nocl