Are vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?

[D C]

8 hours ago, Ken the cruiser said:

Just to add a little more positive vibes to the idea of cruise lines restarting with only vaccinated cruisers, here's an article where the head of the Federal Maritime Commission is recommending the idea.

 

https://www.travelweekly.com/Cruise-Travel/FMC-commissioner-urges-cruising-restart

That seems like a huge positive.   Does the FMC have any sway over the CDC though?  Or can they trump the CDC?

 

[puppycanducruise]

18 hours ago, Ken the cruiser said:

I was wondering what the new administration was going to do with the excess vaccines we've purchased, especially if/when the FDA approves the AstraZeneca EUA. Glad they'll be going to our neighbors, Canada and Mexico.

 

Biden to send surplus AstraZeneca vaccine doses to Mexico, Canada | TheHill

Thank you to the USA and Pres Biden.

We are happy you are willing to share with us.

[ECCruise]

7 hours ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

I wonder if these are the same models that predicted Covid would overwhelm the hospitals. 

Like this just 2 months ago?

Map reveals how US hospitals are overwhelmed with COVID-19 patients

 

[D C]

3 minutes ago, ECCruise said:

Like this just 2 months ago?

Map reveals how US hospitals are overwhelmed with COVID-19 patients

 

Which model predicted that distribution of cases/hospitalizations?
I actually haven't seen any modeling being touted in ~8 months. It seems that they were so dismal at predicting cases and spread, they simply faded away. 

[ECCruise]

30 minutes ago, D C said:

Which model predicted that distribution of cases/hospitalizations?
I actually haven't seen any modeling being touted in ~8 months. It seems that they were so dismal at predicting cases and spread, they simply faded away. 

Rand and Johns Hopkins for starters. 

"Dismal at predicting cases and spread?"   ????

Edited March 19, 2021 by ECCruise

[D C]

35 minutes ago, ECCruise said:

Rand and Johns Hopkins for starters. 

"Dismal at predicting cases and spread?"   ????

Yes. The models are, and have been dismal with ridiculously huge margins of error.  

[TeeRick]

19 hours ago, deadzone1003 said:

Problem is we have about 30,000,000 doses of AZ vaccines sitting in a warehouse in Ohio and it has a shelf-line of 3 months, hope it wasn't shipped to us in January, but since they said they only had 7,000,000 releasable AZ vaccines, I think they are having a problem with inventory control.  When AZ and Novavax gets approved, their contracts kicks in and, theoretically, we can vaccinated 500,000,000 adult Americans (a little less since we may have to throw away some AZ vaccines).  We have 330,000,000 Americans of all ages and kids can't take this vaccine.  You do the math. 

Can you reference this statement?  The US has 7 million releasable doses meaning that they have finished manufacturing and have passed Quality Control and Quality Assurance Release requirements as set by the FDA.  Other doses are likely undergoing final fill/finish, QA and QC and then will be releasable.  Also the AZ /Oxford vaccine presumably is more stable and that is why some consider it the world wide vaccine.  Where are you seeing 30 million doses in a warehouse in Ohio about to expire?  

[TeeRick]

1 hour ago, D C said:

That seems like a huge positive.   Does the FMC have any sway over the CDC though?  Or can they trump the CDC?

 

I do not think that the head of the FMC has any real authority in the restart of cruising.  Just an opinion but at least a positive one.

[TeeRick]

16 hours ago, Ken the cruiser said:

Thanks! From the following statement in the article, my uninformed guess is HAL and Princess and a few other more senior-targeted Carnival-owned lines might be on the short list for mandated vaccines. Just guessing though.

 

However, he did say that they may make it mandatory for cruises that are geared towards seniors.

 

 

Whether the Carnival CEO makes them required or not seems to not matter very much.  What will the CDC require?  What will the passengers want?  To sail on a ship with no requirement for vaccines?  That seems like a losing commercial strategy to me anyway for at least the next two years.

[TeeRick]

9 hours ago, BigAl94 said:

https://news.sky.com/story/vaccinations-alone-are-unlikely-to-contain-coronavirus-infections-in-the-uk-study-warns-12250239 worth a read.

Here is a good summary from the NY Times this morning on the very good success of the UK's vaccine strategy.

https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?abVariantId=1&campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20210319&instance_id=28228&nl=the-morning&productCode=NN&regi_id=121450033&segment_id=53745&te=1&uri=nyt%3A%2F%2Fnewsletter%2F2952ba12-6e9f-5815-bfe3-e7cf14d546d1&user_id=8259b050a84d722b46d85f64ae857bb0

[Charles4515]

3 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Whether the Carnival CEO makes them required or not seems to not matter very much.  What will the CDC require?  What will the passengers want?  To sail on a ship with no requirement for vaccines?  That seems like a losing commercial strategy to me anyway for at least the next two years.

 

Momentum for the cruise lines requiring vaccination continues. Princess will be restarting UK sailings in May. Vaccination required. 

[TeeRick]

More good news on vaccines preventing asymptomatic infection.  The real world post-vaccine data is answering the questions that were not addressed in the clinical trials.

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/vaccines-prevent-asymptomatic-infection-key-ending-pandemic-rcna444

[Charles4515]

Latest news. Princess and Celebrity restarts, guests must be vaccinated. Pumpkin was wrong about major cruise lines not requiring vaccination.  Sorry anti-vaxxers you lose. Looks like no cruising for you.

 

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/princess-cruises-reveals-details-of-all-inclusive-uk-summer-seacations-on-medallionclass-ships-301250795.html

 

 

https://creative.rccl.com/Sales/Celebrity/General_Info/ITK/CEL_JUNE_CARIBBEAN_COMEBACK_FOR_CELEBRITY_CRUISES_Press_Release_3-19-21.pdf

[TeeRick]

6 minutes ago, Charles4515 said:

Latest news. Princess and Celebrity restarts, guests must be vaccinated. Pumpkin was wrong about major cruise lines not requiring vaccination.  Sorry anti-vaxxers you lose. Looks like no cruising for you.

 

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/princess-cruises-reveals-details-of-all-inclusive-uk-summer-seacations-on-medallionclass-ships-301250795.html

 

 

https://creative.rccl.com/Sales/Celebrity/General_Info/ITK/CEL_JUNE_CARIBBEAN_COMEBACK_FOR_CELEBRITY_CRUISES_Press_Release_3-19-21.pdf

Here is what it says about Millennium regarding vaccines:

 

"The ship will sail with vaccinated crew and will be available to vaccinated adult guests and children under the age of 18 with a negative PCR test result within 72 hours of embarkation."

 

Wondering how they will accomplish getting the crew fully vaccinated by June 5th?  

[D C]

38 minutes ago, Charles4515 said:

Latest news. Princess and Celebrity restarts, guests must be vaccinated. Pumpkin was wrong about major cruise lines not requiring vaccination.  Sorry anti-vaxxers you lose. Looks like no cruising for you.

 

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/princess-cruises-reveals-details-of-all-inclusive-uk-summer-seacations-on-medallionclass-ships-301250795.html

 

 

https://creative.rccl.com/Sales/Celebrity/General_Info/ITK/CEL_JUNE_CARIBBEAN_COMEBACK_FOR_CELEBRITY_CRUISES_Press_Release_3-19-21.pdf

 

Hopefully, announcements like this and the Federal Maritime Commissioner urging for cruising to restart with vaccinated crew and guests will put a little more pressure on the CDC to get off their butts.

 

 

[Arizona Wildcat]

20 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Here is what it says about Millennium regarding vaccines:

 

"The ship will sail with vaccinated crew and will be available to vaccinated adult guests and children under the age of 18 with a negative PCR test result within 72 hours of embarkation."

 

Wondering how they will accomplish getting the crew fully vaccinated by June 5th?  

Should not be difficult.  J&J about to shut for 2 weeks to double production rate.  The US already has lots of vaccine produced in the US for vaccines not approved here - about 130M.  By May the US will have vaccine to handle everyone and be sending it elsewhere.  And sure by early May a few thousand doses can be made available.  The challenge will be getting crew on board.  Maybe they pick them up on a cruise from Phillipines via Indonesia, Pakistan etc and cruise to the Caribbean.

Another piece is passengers getting to St Martin.  Would need flights and protocols.  Hope that gets organized better than British Columbia.  Have a nurse friend that has now spent over a week trying to get an ID badge so she can assist the vaccination there.  Going very slowly with some vaccine getting close to expiry date.

Interesting.

 

[deadzone1003]

1 hour ago, TeeRick said:

Can you reference this statement?  The US has 7 million releasable doses meaning that they have finished manufacturing and have passed Quality Control and Quality Assurance Release requirements as set by the FDA.  Other doses are likely undergoing final fill/finish, QA and QC and then will be releasable.  Also the AZ /Oxford vaccine presumably is more stable and that is why some consider it the world wide vaccine.  Where are you seeing 30 million doses in a warehouse in Ohio about to expire?  

Can't find the original article of the 30,000,000 vaccines, but here is a link were they are referencing it:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/11/us/politics/coronavirus-astrazeneca-united-states.html

 

The 7,000,000 releaseable vaccines is referenced in this article:

 

https://nypost.com/2021/03/18/us-to-send-millions-of-covid-vaccine-doses-to-canada-mexico/

 

As for the shelf life, a small boo-boo on my part.  I was mixing up the remaining shelf-line of an article that I had been reading on AZ vaccines in South Africa.  AZ has a shelf-line of 6 months if stored properly.   What I can't understand is why we should be accepting AZ vaccines when it looks like we can't use them?  We should have started getting rid of them as soon as J&J was approved. 

[Charles4515]

49 minutes ago, D C said:

 

Hopefully, announcements like this and the Federal Maritime Commissioner urging for cruising to restart with vaccinated crew and guests will put a little more pressure on the CDC to get off their butts.

 

 

 

LOL. The CDC is off their butts. They are not going to bend to that kind of pressure. Their decisions are based on health and safety not from pressure a selfish segment of the population wants to cruise which is a nonessential activity or polititians trying to get votes or brownie points.

Edited March 19, 2021 by Charles4515

[TeeRick]

39 minutes ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

Should not be difficult.  J&J about to shut for 2 weeks to double production rate.  The US already has lots of vaccine produced in the US for vaccines not approved here - about 130M.  By May the US will have vaccine to handle everyone and be sending it elsewhere.  And sure by early May a few thousand doses can be made available.  The challenge will be getting crew on board.  Maybe they pick them up on a cruise from Phillipines via Indonesia, Pakistan etc and cruise to the Caribbean.

Another piece is passengers getting to St Martin.  Would need flights and protocols.  Hope that gets organized better than British Columbia.  Have a nurse friend that has now spent over a week trying to get an ID badge so she can assist the vaccination there.  Going very slowly with some vaccine getting close to expiry date.

Interesting.

 

The J&J vaccine would need to be used to vaccinate the crew in May for it to be effective for a June cruise.  A lot of the US population will still not be vaccinated by May.  I cannot see how Celebrity can obtain vaccine from the US supply for a foreign crew sailing out of St Martin.

 

Celebrity says in the announcement that to get the special pricing you need to use Flights By Celebrity to get to St Martin.

[Charles4515]

Royal Caribbean restart open to vaccinationed travelers. So sorry antivaxers.
 

https://www.royalcaribbeanpresscenter.com/press-release/1507/royal-caribbean-marks-2021-return-to-caribbean-with-cruises-from-the-bahamas/

Edited March 19, 2021 by Charles4515

[TeeRick]

2 minutes ago, Charles4515 said:

Royal Caribbean restart open to vaccinationed travelers. So sorry antivaxers.
 

https://www.royalcaribbeanpresscenter.com/press-release/1507/royal-caribbean-marks-2021-return-to-caribbean-with-cruises-from-the-bahamas/

Similar to the Celebrity announcement but this one is on Adventure OTS starting June 12.  For vaccinated adult passengers.  Kids under 18 must have a negative COVID test to board.    Wondering about capacity restrictions?  Will these cruises be full or at reduced capacity.  Adventure is a very big ship (3800 passengers + crew).

[UnorigionalName]

1 hour ago, TeeRick said:

Here is what it says about Millennium regarding vaccines:

 

"The ship will sail with vaccinated crew and will be available to vaccinated adult guests and children under the age of 18 with a negative PCR test result within 72 hours of embarkation."

 

Wondering how they will accomplish getting the crew fully vaccinated by June 5th?  

 

My guess would be sinovac or sputnik

[Ken the cruiser]

10 minutes ago, UnorigionalName said:

 

My guess would be sinovac or sputnik

Possibly in coordination with the Philippine government??? No idea. Just a guess based on this article.

 

Palace: Private companies allowed to purchase COVID-19 vaccines under tripartite deal – Manila Bulletin (mb.com.ph)

[D C]

1 hour ago, Charles4515 said:

 

LOL. The CDC is off their butts. They are not going to bend to that kind of pressure. Their decisions are based on health and safety not from pressure a selfish segment of the population wants to cruise which is a nonessential activity or polititians trying to get votes or brownie points.

No. They're not. The CDC is stuck in the past in regards to the conditional sail order while everyone else is moving on with reality.

 

The CDC agrees that vaccinated people can be in close contact without masks or distancing.  Cruise companies are saying that vaccinations will be required.   Combine those two and it's as big of a no-brainer as you can get.    Yet the CDC is not part of any public discussion.

 

They're also months late to the discussions around vaccination passports or whatever you would like to call them.  Where they should have been ahead of the game (along with other governmental agencies) with an established method for proof & verification back in December, we're quickly headed to the point where all adults are able to be vaccinated yet the only proof anyone has is a reminder card.  

 

 

[cangelmd]

5 hours ago, ECCruise said:

Rand and Johns Hopkins for starters. 

"Dismal at predicting cases and spread?"   ????

I don’t know anything about Rand, but JHU has some big blind spots.

Read an article on CNN just last night discussing concern about a spike in Michigan. The article quoted John’s Hopkins tracker as showing a 90% increase in the state of Alabama. I watch our numbers daily. Average new cases per week has been pretty much flat for at least 2, almost three weeks. New positives in our lab are at the absolute most once a day, although that number is likely higher in the urgent cares. 
One day each week during this time, the state has posted big backlogs from as far back as October - our daily numbers are averaging about 600 new cases, varying from 300-800- these backlogs were 2700 and 1500, of course it skews the averages.

JHU is covering the world, they aren’t parsing the state level data the way our independent state level tracker does- and CNN reports whatever they want to report.

 

 I am not insinuating we are out of the woods with variants, we don’t know yet, but we aren’t really going to know until it is too late if things go badly, so we have to continue risk assessment and taking precautions in riskier settings, even vaccinated.