When Will We Feel Safe to Cruise Again

[Paula_MacFan]

46 minutes ago, sfaaa said:

It is up to the citizens to do the right thing. COVID is also spiking in Europe, India and other parts of the world, not just US. Blaming it all on leadership is over simplistic.

I posted the whole quote so people would see the source; however, the real point of my post was the second part about vaccines not being widely available until 3rd qtr 2021. Some people on CC think they will be vaccinated & cruising in January.

[mcrcruiser]

4 hours ago, Luckiestmanonearth said:

You should have bought it when it was at $7.80 (now at $14.26)

We can't buy every stock . My choice s are on target & we are doing well in the market  . Additionally , it is not critical to own CCL ,at this  time  .There is plenty of time to load up  , once the industry starts cruising with paying pax 

[mcrcruiser]

53 minutes ago, Paula_MacFan said:

I posted the whole quote so people would see the source; however, the real point of my post was the second part about vaccines not being widely available until 3rd qtr 2021. Some people on CC think they will be vaccinated & cruising in January.

The Pfizer CEO has  stated that their vaccine will be ready the end of this November 

[d9704011]

4 minutes ago, mcrcruiser said:

The Pfizer CEO has  stated that their vaccine will be ready the end of this November 

That seems to be a bit of a rosy interpretation of what Pfizer said....

 

By Pfizer’s best estimate, the third week of November will be the earliest they will be able to apply for approval.

[Paula_MacFan]

18 minutes ago, mcrcruiser said:

The Pfizer CEO has  stated that their vaccine will be ready the end of this November 

 

Someone already beat me to it, but as they said, that doesn't mean the vaccine will be widely available, which is what I originally posted.

 

[Shaver John]

If you live in California thank goodness our Governor is going to get our own State approval for the vaccine before having us all take this. At least if Dr. Fauci and the Governors task force tells us it will be safe and effective to take the vaccine we will take the vaccine, but if not then we will wait until we see how many folks get sick and still get Covid 19. Still think it will be the end or at least toward the end of next year before we can all get the shot and still be wearing masks for a year or two. That is only my opinion, no data, just from what I hear and read.

[TNTLAMB]

On 9/12/2020 at 5:45 PM, cruzsnooze said:

The Doctors state it will be a two step vaccine and each need to be given 30 days apart. The actual expect, Dr Fauci says things won't get back to pre-covid until late 2011.  

  I don't feel comfortable about any vaccine rushed through protocol by politicians and will wait to see if it really works without major side effects.

Fauci is as the CDC essentially an administrator not a researchers. He's smart, so don't misunderstand. He is evaluating others data. Researchers both academic and NIH doing actual research don't know most of the answers.  Only half (if that) of the job is done there are lots of models and theory  (and lots of changes to those theories) But its not "science" YET.  All of those models need tested, not only by the original researchers but other labs as well. Fauci has only had one other similar situation (HIV) in his career. and he muffed it. Once the science caught up, it got fixed. The vaccine is not being fast tracked. It's going through all the steps. How effective it will be is another matter. Effective in terms of how long it will last. After all it is covid and we are yet to have a vaccine for the common cold which is also covid. I don't have any answers but lots of questions.  BTW I worked as lead scientist in the area (NIH) and have several vaccines in my VC.

Edited October 19, 2020 by TNTLAMB

[Luckiestmanonearth]

3 hours ago, mcrcruiser said:

We can't buy every stock . My choice s are on target & we are doing well in the market  . Additionally , it is not critical to own CCL ,at this  time  .There is plenty of time to load up  , once the industry starts cruising with paying pax 

sorry I thought your original post indicated you were interested in making stock gains

[mcrcruiser]

4 hours ago, TNTLAMB said:

Fauci is as the CDC essentially an administrator not a researchers. He's smart, so don't misunderstand. He is evaluating others data. Researchers both academic and NIH doing actual research don't know most of the answers.  Only half (if that) of the job is done there are lots of models and theory  (and lots of changes to those theories) But its not "science" YET.  All of those models need tested, not only by the original researchers but other labs as well. Fauci has only had one other similar situation (HIV) in his career. and he muffed it. Once the science caught up, it got fixed. The vaccine is not being fast tracked. It's going through all the steps. How effective it will be is another matter. Effective in terms of how long it will last. After all it is covid and we are yet to have a vaccine for the common cold which is also covid. I don't have any answers but lots of questions.  BTW I worked as lead scientist in the area (NIH) and have several vaccines in my VC.

We are hoping that the Pfizer vaccine will have enough initial doses to take care of front line people & us the ones at high risk  initially . If my own doctor tells me it is safe & will keep us from getting the covid 19 virus ,then we will take that vaccine or a future vaccine that is safe for us  .We are wishing that we can travel to see our adult children ,grand children & great grand children for Christmas .Thus ,we have to be protected  to take that trip 

[mcrcruiser]

3 hours ago, Luckiestmanonearth said:

sorry I thought your original post indicated you were interested in making stock gains

We do make gains in stocks ,it is just not the best time ,imo to get into any of the cruise line stocks  .There will be time enough to buy shares once the industry is viable again 

[mcrcruiser]

7 hours ago, d9704011 said:

That seems to be a bit of a rosy interpretation of what Pfizer said....

 

By Pfizer’s best estimate, the third week of November will be the earliest they will be able to apply for approval.

Pfizer will have hundreds of thousands of vaccine doses ready for deployment  & perhaps millions of doses . The way we read the news release was that the end of  November was their intended target  .We are hoping that we could get the injection safely before Christmas

Edited October 20, 2020 by mcrcruiser

[caribill]

2 hours ago, mcrcruiser said:

Pfizer will have hundreds of thousands of vaccine doses ready for deployment  & perhaps millions of doses . The way we read the news release was that the end of  November was their intended target  .We are hoping that we could get the injection safely before Christmas

 

They claim 100 Million doses by the end of the year, enough for the required two doses for 50 Million people. ot sure if all of those does are for the USA.

[caribill]

One possible safety warning:

 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/10/could-certain-covid-19-vaccines-leave-people-more-vulnerable-aids-virus

[HappyInVan]

12 hours ago, TNTLAMB said:

 BTW I worked as lead scientist in the area (NIH) and have several vaccines in my VC.

Excellent. Could we have your opinion on the coming cold season? Why is Putin in such a hurry to vaccinate his people?

 

 

[d9704011]

8 hours ago, mcrcruiser said:

Pfizer will have hundreds of thousands of vaccine doses ready for deployment  & perhaps millions of doses . The way we read the news release was that the end of  November was their intended target  .We are hoping that we could get the injection safely before Christmas

Hope springs eternal!

[TNTLAMB]

2 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

Excellent. Could we have your opinion on the coming cold season? Why is Putin in such a hurry to vaccinate his people?

 

 

I suspect without seeing the "Specific Data" the Russians get it. Their Vaccine like Pfizers  is based on known technology which has been used succesfully for over 30 years. Overly simplified they simply attach RNA from the virus to an agent to update the immune system. its exactly the same methodology used to create the seasonal flu vaccine which is made every year with different RNA based on a "best guess" of whats going to be out there. We could have had should have had a vaccine months ago. The technology exists. (Personally I think its a result of the anti vaccine folk getting political again, but thats ONLY my opinion) IF enough people take the vaccine basically what happens is a herd immunity is created.

 

The problem in the US and much of the world is we are looking to Immunologists for a solution that we already have. What we are failing to do is listen to another Specialty- Rheumatology. The Cov-idiots are partially correct. Covid isn't a big problem by itself. For most its no worse than a bad cold but for a smaller group its a huge problem. Its not the virus that is causing the deaths and long term problem directly but rather the virus effecting these people immune system causing it to go into over drive and the body literally starts attacking itself.

 

This is called the Koebner effect. An insult to the body wakes up a part of their genetic system causing an acute autoimmune disorder. Some have the genetics most don't. The Koebner effect is also what causes everything from Rheumatoid arthritis to Lupus and a host of other autoimmune disease.  Rheumatolgists understand this. Studies in both England and Italy have confirmed this. Patients who are taking immuno suppresents including Biologics (Humira, Enbrel etc), DMARDs (Methotrexate, Hydroxychloroquine, etc) are encourage to keep taking them - even in the US.

 

The effects of Covid on these folks have been much less than expected. The medications used Hydroxychloroquine, Regeneron's cocktail etc have been studied in General population and studies disagree. Heres the problem. It takes weeks if not months for them to work for autoimmune disorders. I'm not sure its realistic to expect different results with someone in ICU. SOOOOO then there is thng of massive steroid doses whih is what Rheumatologists have used for years. (not that the treatment discussion has anything to do with your question) Those meds will NOT work and possibly make things worse if you DON'T have an autoimmune disorder.

 

If we get a vaccine, and people take it,  people follow the rules to slow things down etc. we should be cruising soon.  With a vaccine, despite the fact I have AA amyloidosis and Psoriatic arthritis, I'll be on the first Cruise I can. I won't go to the buffet (because of the crowds) but I never do anyway. I'll cheat on attendance at the embarkation drills, stay out of the elevators and wash my damn hands till the skin falls off, but will have a great time thoroughly.

 

The short Answer is, It appears the Russians know what they are doing, and the rest are questionable. We are failing to listen to the right Scientists. Fauci should know Better.

Edited October 20, 2020 by TNTLAMB

[mcrcruiser]

8 hours ago, caribill said:

 

They claim 100 Million doses by the end of the year, enough for the required two doses for 50 Million people. ot sure if all of those does are for the USA.

Thanks this sounds encouraging  For us it would be wonderful to be able to get the vaccine injection  prior to Christmas so that we can visit with our adult children ,grand children & great grand children . We drive from  San Diego county to LA county for that purpose .  what we must be sure of is that with our underlying medical conditions that the vaccine will  really protect us from  getting this covid 19 . We are both in the very high risk category  . We have  masks & even bought shields ;but ,who would want to be in a home with your close relatives wearing those things  ?.Well we can hope now for the  the early timing of this vaccine & that our doctor tells us it is safe to take it .So there still are a lot of ifs 

[mcrcruiser]

As for cruises we have 2 booked ,first one is Jan 15 ,2022 on Princess Majestic to Mexico & the 2nd is Oct 16 ,2022 on Carnival Miracle for 15 night Hawaii . We always book into balcony cabins  . We would both be 83 at the time of these cruises  .We do not fly any longer  to get to cruise ships ;as we can easily drive to 2 close by Southern California ports 

 

 We booked into 2022 with the idea that this virus will be well controlled  by then 

[mcrcruiser]

2 hours ago, d9704011 said:

Hope springs eternal!

This is all any of us have is hope that the vaccine is safe  & we all could get back to our lives . when a person is a lot younger than us ,the impact of time is felt less ;but ,when you are in your 80s  this time taken away  makes a huge difference  for quality of life 

[HappyInVan]

1 hour ago, TNTLAMB said:

The problem in the US and much of the world is we are looking to Immunologists for a solution that we already have....

 

The short Answer is, It appears the Russians know what they are doing, and the rest are questionable. We are failing to listen to the right Scientists. Fauci should know Better.

 

Actually, its the pharma companies that are driving covid R&D in the west. I'm not sure if Fauci is at fault.

 

Some of your colleagues have warned about unexpected side effects...

 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/10/could-certain-covid-19-vaccines-leave-people-more-vulnerable-aids-virus

 

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/11/081103102118.htm

 

 

Are the Russian and Chinese using Ad5-specific antibodies? BTW, WHO are running their own projects. Are they promising?

 

Thanks.

 

 

[TNTLAMB]

13 minutes ago, HappyInVan said:

 

Actually, its the pharma companies that are driving covid R&D in the west. I'm not sure if Fauci is at fault.

 

Some of your colleagues have warned about unexpected side effects...

 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/10/could-certain-covid-19-vaccines-leave-people-more-vulnerable-aids-virus

 

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/11/081103102118.htm

 

 

Are the Russian and Chinese using Ad5-specific antibodies? BTW, WHO are running their own projects. Are they promising?

 

Thanks.

 

 

Russias is intresting its a two jab deal  They are using two vectors Jab One is Ad26.  Jab2 is Ad5.   There real data isn't available so its hard to know if they know something or simply could decide which way to go so went both.  Chinas is Ad5. Your articles are right on.  Most think of T-cells in regards to HIV and forget the mitigation of Bcells. Its interesting you bring up the subject because this is exactly why I distrust Fauci. Way back when he made call based on Primate research which doesn't apply as well as he thinks (pigs, Chinese hamsters and even horses are better choices in regards to immune system research)

 

He chose to go with a new class of drugs called assembly inhibitors. The theory was those compounds bind to HIV-1 capsid proteins and prevent them from assembling into the HIV capsid, the inner structure of the virus that houses viral RNA, enzymes, and other key viral components.  These compounds do not stop new viruses from assembling, they cause them to form with defective capsids, which cannot then infect new cells. the combination of drugs that comprise HAART (Highly active antiretroviral therapy) can interact with other drugs and weaken the effect of the “cocktail,” thus allowing resistant strains of HIV to emerge.

 

The HIV vaccine trial your links refer to was abruptly halted when researchers found that the vaccine promoted rather than prevented, HIV infection. Researchers in Molecular Genetics in France and our own NIH knew how the vaccine could have enhanced HIV infection I was convinced at the time  Fauci didn't know the difference between a bacteria and a virus. Did he learn anything beween then and now? https://www.niaid.nih.gov/research/anthony-s-fauci-md  i'm not convinced. He states:

 

 "Our approach over the past several years has been to delineate the role of persistent viral reservoirs in the pathogenesis of HIV infection and to explore and develop novel therapeutic strategies aimed at achieving sustained virologic remission in infected individuals in the absence of ART."

 

He still doesn't get it. Hes trying to kill the virus. His approach to COVID is exactly the same as his approach to HIV.  

 

Pharma long ago moved beyond all of that and realized it wasn't the damn virus, overly simplified it was what the virus did to the immune system. Some real progress was made. But again it came from Pharma. Canada was the first to jump on board and made HAART available. In fact British Columbia Made HAART Free for all.  These medications may also be called antiretroviral drugs (ART), antiretrovirals (ARVs), or anti-HIV drugs. The availability of HAART means that HIV is manageable through lifelong treatment. I dare say the HIV Crises and approach has had more effect on modern medicine that most would like to admit. Immunotherapy, precision medicine etc all came from that research. Just about all recent cancer treatment comes from that work. Were it up to Fauci we would have seen a rise in HIV that made the 80's look like nothing. He is taking the same damn approach to Covid. I'm not convinced yet  Those side effects warned in your article are not unexpected in fact quite the opposite. I would trust Pharma over Fauci any day.

 

Keep in mind though I'm long retired so is just opinion,  and really want to be cruising again

[cheone]

21 hours ago, mcrcruiser said:

The Pfizer CEO has  stated that their vaccine will be ready the end of this November 

Today. Moderna announce that they will be ready in December.  Thanks to Operation Warp Speed,  100 million doses from Moderna and Pfiser will be available and ready to be distributed this year.   The US govt has the military with special equipment to handle the Vaccine distribution to McKesson (100's of Distribution Centers).   I am 100% sure that I will be getting a Covid 19 shot by the time of my cruise in March.

[HappyInVan]

4 hours ago, TNTLAMB said:

We could have had should have had a vaccine months ago. The technology exists.

 

BTW, seems to me that the Russians and Chinese (30 year technology) are not faster than Moderna etc. All are reaching clinical trials at about the same time. The difference is that the Russians and Chinese are shortening the clinical trial period by vaccinating 'volunteers' in high risk occupations.

 

That will surely generate more infection data for them to analyze.

 

Sorry, I am not willing to take a vaccine unless it passes the proper scientific test and evaluation phases. You're pointed out why. There are so many candidates (different technologies) that there will be several approved vaccines in 2021. Possibly, more than two with an efficacy exceeding 70%.

 

In the meantime, I'm willing to cruise with distancing and masks in low risk areas. EZ PZ.

 

PS: I would nominate you as advisor to the WH instead of the neurosurgeon. 

 

 

Edited October 20, 2020 by HappyInVan

[TNTLAMB]

2 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

 

BTW, seems to me that the Russians and Chinese (30 year technology) are not faster than Moderna etc. All are reaching clinical trials at about the same time. The difference is that the Russians and Chinese are shortening the clinical trial period by vaccinating 'volunteers' in high risk occupations.

 

 

 

 

They aren't shortening the trials. The FDA for reasons they won't state (but would practically guarantee are political in some measure including perceived public pressure) have added 2 mos of "observation" following the completion of Phase 3 trials before the manufacturers can apply for compassionate use approval (ie impacted populations which is what China and the USSR are doing) I don't know that I have ever seen that. In fact I have seen both early access and compassionate use permits near the end of phase one and not uncommonly during phase 2) I can understand early access as adverse event reporting is different but I will be very interested in the October 22 meeting when the FDA gets to explain to the manufacturers why they changed the rules. A phase 4 trial is an aftermarket trial somehow there has been a step added. Funny how it covers a lame duck congress but that's apolitical statement which I generally avoid making.

 

[Geobugs]

Now.