When Will We Feel Safe to Cruise Again

[MissP22]

43 minutes ago, PrincessLuver said:

We cannot see how cruise lines are going to succeed where the airlines have failed.  I still think people will be lucky if they are cruising by late 2021 and then of course the question is "where too?"  The world does not appear too eager to have a boat load of possible Covid-19 spreaders show up on their shores.  Love all the wishful thinking though of others.....it is certainly entertaining in these times!!!!!

As we don't fly any longer to catch a cruise that eliminates one of the biggest problems. 

We personally have been to the Caribbean so many times that in our last dozen cruises have only gotten off the ship to get some exercise so if we don't stop at any of the islands we'll wind up saving port charges anyway. 🤑

I do agree that cruising won't really get underway until late 2021 and if it's going to be wearing a mask, count us out. 😷

[drowelf]

18 hours ago, junglejane said:

Because a big winter wave looks inevitable, I think a vaccine will be necessary before cruises can restart.  Ironically, the initial rollout of a vaccine could delay a restart by creating a reason to wait "just a few more months."  If scarce vaccine supplies are  only available to a few, that will not feel like the right time.  There will be a sense to wait until the vaccine is widely available.  I have heard people estimate that could happen in a broad range from like Feb to June, but I have no idea.  

This is exactly where we are. Our game plan is to not cruise, or even travel, until a vaccine is available and has been widely distributed.  The cruise lines may want to open, but until there is somewhere to go (ports) I can't see us on a cruise. While some may enjoy just sailing around on a cruise ship, that's not the primary reason we do. We just cancelled our March 28 Day Asia, as I don't think those conditions will be met. Our next shot is August 2021, followed by Feb 2022. 

[drowelf]

5 hours ago, PrincessLuver said:

We cannot see how cruise lines are going to succeed where the airlines have failed.  I still think people will be lucky if they are cruising by late 2021 and then of course the question is "where too?"  The world does not appear too eager to have a boat load of possible Covid-19 spreaders show up on their shores.  Love all the wishful thinking though of others.....it is certainly entertaining in these times!!!!!

 

There is also the converse of the boatload of Covid-19 showing up on your shore. Nobody wants to be on the the next Diamond Princess or the other 'plague' ships that had a hard time even finding a port to offload their passengers. One outbreak on a ship when cruising restarts is going to be very damaging to the industry. 

[mcrcruiser]

15 minutes ago, drowelf said:

 

There is also the converse of the boatload of Covid-19 showing up on your shore. Nobody wants to be on the the next Diamond Princess or the other 'plague' ships that had a hard time even finding a port to offload their passengers. One outbreak on a ship when cruising restarts is going to be very damaging to the industry. 

Yes agreed that one other cruise ship  outbreak of covid 19   would severely damage the entire cruise industry  .Better to have the vaccine available & most people taking it  before serious cruising can resume

[caribill]

11 hours ago, drowelf said:

 

There is also the converse of the boatload of Covid-19 showing up on your shore. Nobody wants to be on the the next Diamond Princess or the other 'plague' ships that had a hard time even finding a port to offload their passengers. One outbreak on a ship when cruising restarts is going to be very damaging to the industry. 

 

Part of the CDC requirements for a ship to sail is to have arranged in advance for this situation to be taken care of if it happens.

[MissP22]

3 hours ago, mcrcruiser said:

The problem we see  for the immediate future is when we can get the vaccine ?Will our doctor approve of it's safety for us to get vaccinated in his office ? ,How effective will these first vaccines be to protect us ? When will at least 70% of the USA population be vaccinated ,to get herd immunity going ?  

Not that I know anything about what Princess intends to do after a vaccine is available but my thinking is that they'll require proof of a vaccination in order to board. I know this idea would upset lots of folks who don't believe in vaccinations but it seems like it could reduce the possibility of transferring the Chinese virus around the ship.   

[mcrcruiser]

43 minutes ago, MissP22 said:

Not that I know anything about what Princess intends to do after a vaccine is available but my thinking is that they'll require proof of a vaccination in order to board. I know this idea would upset lots of folks who don't believe in vaccinations but it seems like it could reduce the possibility of transferring the Chinese virus around the ship.   

Time will tell  .Cruising will be starting prior to the availability of any  mass produced vaccine  .Thus ,imo ,the cruise lines probably will not require  proof of vaccination ;but ,they can take fast tests at the pier , for the virus as well as  temperature tests .

[Daniel A]

2 minutes ago, mcrcruiser said:

Time will tell  .Cruising will be starting prior to the availability of any  mass produced vaccine  .Thus ,imo ,the cruise lines probably will not require  proof of vaccination ;but ,they can take fast tests at the pier , for the virus as well as  temperature tests .

No mandatory vaccine to sail, no Daniel A...😐

[MissP22]

2 hours ago, Daniel A said:

No mandatory vaccine to sail, no Daniel A...😐

So far this seems to hold true but we'll be waiting until it's either common practice by everyone to accept the vaccine or they require it to board.

I've see to many cases of Noro over the years to think that they can control the covid-19 virus so easily.

 

[cheone]

5 hours ago, MissP22 said:

So far this seems to hold true but we'll be waiting until it's either common practice by everyone to accept the vaccine or they require it to board.

I've see to many cases of Noro over the years to think that they can control the covid-19 virus so easily.

 

Thanks to Operation Warp Speed, Pfizer vaccines will be available in the third week of this month, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson will be available in Dec.  Altogether with the three,  300 million doses will be available in December, most of which have already been manufactured.  The cruise lines will probably have 2 groups  and how they treat them on the ship.  Group 1. those that got the vaccine- No restrictions and back to normal, and Group 2. those that have not got the vaccine.  Group 2 will have to practice social distancing and wear masks and probably be prohibited to go onshore except for Princess tours.   

[capriccio]

3 minutes ago, cheone said:

Thanks to Operation Warp Speed, Pfizer vaccines will be available in the third week of this month, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson will be available in Dec.   Who made this statement and when was it made?  I couldn't find supporting information.

 

The cruise lines will probably have 2 groups  and how they treat them on the ship.  Group 1. those that got the vaccine- No restrictions and back to normal, and Group 2. those that have not got the vaccine.  Group 2 will have to practice social distancing and wear masks and probably be prohibited to go onshore except for Princess tours.   Do you have inside information or is this your plan if a cruise line should seek your thoughts?

Comments above.

[memoak]

46 minutes ago, cheone said:

Thanks to Operation Warp Speed, Pfizer vaccines will be available in the third week of this month, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson will be available in Dec.  Altogether with the three,  300 million doses will be available in December, most of which have already been manufactured.  The cruise lines will probably have 2 groups  and how they treat them on the ship.  Group 1. those that got the vaccine- No restrictions and back to normal, and Group 2. those that have not got the vaccine.  Group 2 will have to practice social distancing and wear masks and probably be prohibited to go onshore except for Princess tours.   

How would you tell the difference between the two groups?  Do we get tattoos ? I think that it will be vaccinated only at some point. Just like you need to get various vaccinations to enter certain countries. I have had to show proof of yellow fever, malaria etc

 

[mcrcruiser]

7 hours ago, cheone said:

Thanks to Operation Warp Speed, Pfizer vaccines will be available in the third week of this month, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson will be available in Dec.  Altogether with the three,  300 million doses will be available in December, most of which have already been manufactured.  The cruise lines will probably have 2 groups  and how they treat them on the ship.  Group 1. those that got the vaccine- No restrictions and back to normal, and Group 2. those that have not got the vaccine.  Group 2 will have to practice social distancing and wear masks and probably be prohibited to go onshore except for Princess tours.   

The  Pfizer & Moderna  vaccines are 2 injections ,one month apart from each other .They both need refrigeration prior to being injected . A person's own doctor will need to tell the patient any elements of risk  taking the vaccines .

 

 The Johnson N Johnson injection is one shot & I am not sure whether their vaccine requires refrigeration  prior to application . Same review by patients own doctor 

 

  These are my opinions  .We are both 81 in the high risk category with underlying medical conditions  .  I do not  envision getting a vaccine shots for my wife nor I before Jan /Feb  of 2021 because first responders get the shots first & we may be in the next group 

Edited November 2, 2020 by mcrcruiser

[HappyInVan]

8 hours ago, cheone said:

Thanks to Operation Warp Speed, Pfizer vaccines will be available in the third week of this month...

 

Where did you get that tidbit from? Straight from the White House? 🙄

 

"Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said in an open letter on Friday that his company could *APPLY* for emergency federal approval of its coronavirus vaccine as soon as late November, noting that the drugmaker expects to have enough data on the treatment's safety and efficacy by then. That marks the first time a vaccine developer has specified when a vaccine might be available..."

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-vaccine-pfizer-emergency-use-november/

 

"Pfizer’s clinical trial is testing the vaccine in 44,000 people, half of whom have received a vaccine and half who have gotten a placebo. The trial’s protocol, or blueprint, allows for an initial look at results after at least 32 people in either group have developed Covid-19. If more than 26 of those people are in the placebo group, then the vaccine is considered likely to be effective...." (NY Times)

 

Certainly inspires confidence?

 

 

[Roberto256]

4 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

 

Where did you get that tidbit from? Straight from the White House? 🙄

 

"Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said in an open letter on Friday that his company could *APPLY* for emergency federal approval of its coronavirus vaccine as soon as late November..."

 

Are you suggesting that we take the word of the pfizer ceo over some anonymous internet poster???

Crazy!

 

I think all operation warp speed has done is scare the public into thinking a vaccine won't be safe

because it has been rushed for political expediency.

 

I'm not getting a vaccine until Jenny McCarthy says it is safe.

 

Edited November 2, 2020 by Roberto256

[nocl]

13 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

 

Where did you get that tidbit from? Straight from the White House? 🙄

 

"Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said in an open letter on Friday that his company could *APPLY* for emergency federal approval of its coronavirus vaccine as soon as late November, noting that the drugmaker expects to have enough data on the treatment's safety and efficacy by then. That marks the first time a vaccine developer has specified when a vaccine might be available..."

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-vaccine-pfizer-emergency-use-november/

 

"Pfizer’s clinical trial is testing the vaccine in 44,000 people, half of whom have received a vaccine and half who have gotten a placebo. The trial’s protocol, or blueprint, allows for an initial look at results after at least 32 people in either group have developed Covid-19. If more than 26 of those people are in the placebo group, then the vaccine is considered likely to be effective...." (NY Times)

 

Certainly inspires confidence?

 

 

Why wouldn't it. That is standard process for drug development.  Early looks by the Data Monitoring and Safety Board are a standard part of ethical clinical trials.  If the data in such early looks is extremely bad it is to stop the trial and not put additional risk on the participants.  If the data is extremely good and statistically significant then it would be unethical to withhold treatment that would have significant potential impact with a large unmet medical need.  In such cases data continues to be collected, but the process is the same as normal and the numbers are also what one would expect for this kind of trial. 

 

The formula for calculating efficacy is   (# Placebo Arm - # Treated Arm)/# Placebo Arm   * 100 so the numbers you listed of 26-6/26 = 77% efficacy and even with small number would be sufficient to show statistical significance above the required rate.  Keep in mind that the required rate with a full 150 cases is 50% so that would be 100 cases in the Placebo arm and 50 Cases in the treated Arm.

Edited November 2, 2020 by nocl

[nocl]

8 hours ago, Roberto256 said:

 

Are you suggesting that we take the word of the pfizer ceo over some anonymous internet poster???

Crazy!

 

I think all operation warp speed has done is scare the public into thinking a vaccine won't be safe

because it has been rushed for political expediency.

 

I'm not getting a vaccine until Jenny McCarthy says it is safe.

 

Not the word of Pfizer, it would be the word of the Data Monitoring and Safety Board.

[Steelers36]

9 hours ago, Roberto256 said:

I think all operation warp speed has done is scare the public into thinking a vaccine won't be safe

because it has been rushed for political expediency.

In my mind Operation Warp Speed was reference to the concentrated focus of many scientists, etc, to the research and development of a vaccine and the accelerated production of vaccine to be ready for distribution if/when one was approved.  Otherwise, the development and manufacturing cycle starting after approval would slow the whole process down.  So a lot of money is being spent on potential vaccines that may well be discarded.  Another aspect of Warp Speed was the use of logistics experts in the military to get vaccines out to the States and have them in designated centers available to put into use. 

 

If the public would listen to the real info and not the enemies of the WH, who frame things for their own purposes, I think the picture would be clearer.  It has been stated multiple times that Warp Speed does not mean proper testing and reviews are bypassed.

 

[HappyInVan]

11 minutes ago, Steelers36 said:

It has been stated multiple times that Warp Speed does not mean proper testing and reviews are bypassed.

 

 

Tell that to certain politicians! 🙂

[Steelers36]

Just now, HappyInVan said:

 

Tell that to certain politicians! 🙂

There you go again.

[HappyInVan]

41 minutes ago, nocl said:

The formula for calculating efficacy is   (# Placebo Arm - # Treated Arm)/# Placebo Arm   * 100 so the numbers you listed of 26-6/26 = 77% efficacy and even with small number would be sufficient to show statistical significance above the required rate.  Keep in mind that the required rate with a full 150 cases is 50% so that would be 100 cases in the Placebo arm and 50 Cases in the treated Arm.

 

Well, I hope they don't shut down the trial just because they have a EUA. For a population of 44k, I would be happier if we had returns on several hundred?

[nocl]

Just now, HappyInVan said:

 

Well, I hope they don't shut down the trial just because they have a EUA. For a population of 44k, I would be happier if we had returns on several hundred?

The trial is not set up for several hundred.  Its full efficacy read out is defined to be 150 cases.  At that point if it passes efficacy hurdles the trial would stop and the placebo are treated, thus ending the efficacy portion of the trial.  With an early look the the trial would continue, however, if the results are good enough the data monitoring and safety board could recommend the trial to be unblinded and the placebo arm treated, since with a very good result it would be considered to be unethical to withhold protection from the placebo arm.

[nocl]

20 minutes ago, Steelers36 said:

In my mind Operation Warp Speed was reference to the concentrated focus of many scientists, etc, to the research and development of a vaccine and the accelerated production of vaccine to be ready for distribution if/when one was approved.  Otherwise, the development and manufacturing cycle starting after approval would slow the whole process down.  So a lot of money is being spent on potential vaccines that may well be discarded.  Another aspect of Warp Speed was the use of logistics experts in the military to get vaccines out to the States and have them in designated centers available to put into use. 

 

If the public would listen to the real info and not the enemies of the WH, who frame things for their own purposes, I think the picture would be clearer.  It has been stated multiple times that Warp Speed does not mean proper testing and reviews are bypassed.

 

If the WH actually supported the scientific and regulatory authorities instead of trying to control their communications in ways that damages their credibility the public might be far more comfortable.

[HappyInVan]

2 minutes ago, nocl said:

The trial is not set up for several hundred.  Its full efficacy read out is defined to be 150 cases.  

 

Well, I seem to recall someone complaining about the low hurdles set for the Stage 3 trials. That's exactly why EUA should  be limited to emergency cases only. 

[nocl]

11 minutes ago, HappyInVan said:

 

Well, I seem to recall someone complaining about the low hurdles set for the Stage 3 trials. That's exactly why EUA should  be limited to emergency cases only. 

If you actually understand what my concerns were.

 

The low hurdles have nothing to do with efficacy and safety of the drug.  The low hurdles are the use of symptoms, not prevention of infection.  With that measure the drug may be perfectly safe and may be effective in preventing cases with symptom.  But it may not keep someone that is vaccinated from getting infected, with an asymptomatic case and potentially infecting others.  There is no data in the trial to determine that.  So the vaccine might protect those that are vaccinated but not contribute to herd immunity and as such be limited in its impact upon the infection. Which has nothing to do with numbers in the trial.  Only the data gained and overall impact of the vaccine.

 

So if someone has gotten the vaccine, they cannot assume that they are clear when they meet with other, at risk people that have not been vaccinated.

 

Edited November 2, 2020 by nocl