When Will We Feel Safe to Cruise Again

[HappyInVan]

56 minutes ago, Geobugs said:

Now.

 

Guys,

 

We have to dampen the enthusiasm. This is the UK's chief scientific adviser. He has access to the top minds in the medical professions and pharma...

 

“Coronavirus likely to become as ‘endemic’ as the flu and a vaccine might not be able to stop it, top UK scientist says”

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/20/covid-19-likely-to-become-as-endemic-as-flu.html

 

It will be a while before cruising returns to pre-covid levels. Perhaps, not for a generation if this thing mutates.

 

 

[dreaminofcruisin]

4 minutes ago, HappyInVan said:

 

Guys,

 

We have to dampen the enthusiasm. This is the UK's chief scientific adviser. He has access to the top minds in the medical professions and pharma...

 

“Coronavirus likely to become as ‘endemic’ as the flu and a vaccine might not be able to stop it, top UK scientist says”

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/20/covid-19-likely-to-become-as-endemic-as-flu.html

 

It will be a while before cruising returns to pre-covid levels. Perhaps, not for a generation if this thing mutates.

 

 

 

I think my assumption for a while has been that it would be an annual vaccine like the flu vaccine. My optimism is that the early vaccines will not be quite as good, but the more people that get them would reduce the likelihood of getting covid.  They will continue to improve on the covid vaccine as they did with the Shingles vaccine.

 

Soooo...we won't be back to 'normal' next year....but we can hope for improvement.

 

[mcrcruiser]

4 hours ago, dreaminofcruisin said:

 

I think my assumption for a while has been that it would be an annual vaccine like the flu vaccine. My optimism is that the early vaccines will not be quite as good, but the more people that get them would reduce the likelihood of getting covid.  They will continue to improve on the covid vaccine as they did with the Shingles vaccine.

 

Soooo...we won't be back to 'normal' next year....but we can hope for improvement.

 

 Perhaps you are right in your thinking of a yearly vaccine for covid 19 similar to the flu shot  . We won't know for some time the effectiveness of the upcoming vaccines ,though we can hope that they are very effective . Certainly ,we don't want this virus to mutate & have to start all pver  developing vaccines  for the new strain 

 

  At this point it is any ones guess as to when cruises will be like the pre covid19 cruises .We would not be on any cruise ship unless  we were certain that the vaccines  stop us from getting the virus  & you probably can count many other seniors making similar decisions 

 

  Many of the posts here have been very educational   .Thanks to every one for their contributions 😃

Edited October 21, 2020 by mcrcruiser

[By The Bay]

45 minutes ago, mcrcruiser said:

 Perhaps you are right in your thinking of a yearly vaccine for covid 19 similar to the flu shot  . We won't know for some time the effectiveness of the upcoming vaccines ,though we can hope that they are very effective . Certainly ,we don't want this virus to mutate & have to start all pver  developing vaccines  for the new strain 

 

  At this point it is any ones guess as to when cruises will be like the pre covid19 cruises .We would not be on any cruise ship unless  we were certain that the vaccines  stop us from getting the virus  & you probably can count many other seniors making similar decisions 

 

  Many of the posts here have been very educational   .Thanks to every one for their contributions 😃

It would appear that there are already more than 1 strain of COVID-19. This was reported today. Source

 

"A cargo ship has been forced to anchor off the Sunshine Coast amid concerns a previously undetected strain of COVID-19 is on board."

 

"NZ Health Director-General Ashley Bloomfield said while there were thousands of subtypes of the virus around the world, the global database was "heavily weighted" towards the strains reported by high income countries including the UK, US, European countries, Australia and New Zealand.

 

"So what we've seen here is this strain is a new one, in that it's not any of the ones we've had reported here in New Zealand previously," he said."

[mcrcruiser]

42 minutes ago, By The Bay said:

It would appear that there are already more than 1 strain of COVID-19. This was reported today. Source

 

"A cargo ship has been forced to anchor off the Sunshine Coast amid concerns a previously undetected strain of COVID-19 is on board."

 

"NZ Health Director-General Ashley Bloomfield said while there were thousands of subtypes of the virus around the world, the global database was "heavily weighted" towards the strains reported by high income countries including the UK, US, European countries, Australia and New Zealand.

 

"So what we've seen here is this strain is a new one, in that it's not any of the ones we've had reported here in New Zealand previously," he said."

A new strain would not be encouraging especially if it got a foot hold  else where in the world  .Hopefully they can quarantine this person & track any others he may have been in contact  & then isolate the strain 

[TNTLAMB]

12 hours ago, mcrcruiser said:

A new strain would not be encouraging especially if it got a foot hold  else where in the world  .Hopefully they can quarantine this person & track any others he may have been in contact  & then isolate the strain 

I would not worry about that a lot. The Covid 19 vaccine is very similar to that of your annual flushot not only in how its made, but in how it works. It will never be like a measles or small pox vaccine. nor will this "thing" ever go away like smallpox. herd immunity will never happen (if did, the common cold would be rare) These types of vaccines are not inoculations. While they may not ever totally prevent you from getting the disease they can and do prevent the viral load from growing to the point of making you seriously ill. As far as new strains its important to note Influenza vaccines, also known as flu shots or flu jabs, are vaccines that protect against infection by influenza viruses. New versions of the vaccines are developed twice a year, as the influenza virus rapidly changes. It will be much the same with Covid. There is an occasional miss (ie Swine flu) but that is rare.

 

[mcrcruiser]

5 hours ago, TNTLAMB said:

I would not worry about that a lot. The Covid 19 vaccine is very similar to that of your annual flushot not only in how its made, but in how it works. It will never be like a measles or small pox vaccine. nor will this "thing" ever go away like smallpox. herd immunity will never happen (if did, the common cold would be rare) These types of vaccines are not inoculations. While they may not ever totally prevent you from getting the disease they can and do prevent the viral load from growing to the point of making you seriously ill. As far as new strains its important to note Influenza vaccines, also known as flu shots or flu jabs, are vaccines that protect against infection by influenza viruses. New versions of the vaccines are developed twice a year, as the influenza virus rapidly changes. It will be much the same with Covid. There is an occasional miss (ie Swine flu) but that is rare.

 

Then we all need to take a yearly vaccine like we take the flu  vaccine ;which is not a bad thing 😄  Back to cruising sooner we hope 😃

 

Edited October 21, 2020 by mcrcruiser

[nocl]

18 hours ago, mcrcruiser said:

A new strain would not be encouraging especially if it got a foot hold  else where in the world  .Hopefully they can quarantine this person & track any others he may have been in contact  & then isolate the strain 

Keep in mind that there are strains and there are STRAINS.  Almost all viruses mutate into various strains.  COVID has frequently, that is how they can identify how the virus has changed over time, and that the more infectious virus of today is different from the virus from back in January.  I used strains to mean genetic differences with the virus.  I use STRAINS to identify changes that impact the effectiveness of a vaccine being developed.  COVID-19 has many strains, but all share the common features (the horns) that the vaccines are being developed to react to.  So far none have changed enough to be a different STRAIN.

 

However, that fact that a virus has different strains, does not mean that they have changed in such a way that a vaccine aimed for a STRAIN will not work on all of the different strains that are out there.

 

My read of the article is that the strain is only mentioned in that it identifies that it has come from outside of New Zealand and not one of the various versions that have shown up in the country.  Not to imply anything about the validity of a vaccine against it or that the current batch of vaccines will not work against it.

Edited October 21, 2020 by nocl

[HappyInVan]

There is good news.

 

China quarantined Wuhan on January 23. Moderna had a candidate on February 24.

 

https://nypost.com/2020/02/25/massachusetts-biotech-firm-releases-potential-coronavirus-vaccine-for-human-testing/

 

Why was pharma able to launch promising vaccines so quickly? Never been done before!

 

That's because pharma has invested tons of money in leading edge technologies, avoiding the shortcomings of 'old' technology. The investment climate is very different from the old days.

 

https://www.prescouter.com/2019/06/pharmaceutical-rd-global-spending-trends-in-2019/

 

All they had to do when the pandemic hit, was to adapt their delivery system to the covid payload. Payday!

 

All this has nothing to do with 'warp speed'. The investments had already been made over the years.

 

What does this have to do with cruising?

 

We can be grateful that we live in the west. The Russians and Chinese are using 'old' technology? That's because they can't match the R&D investments made by the pharma industries in the capitalist economies. They're in a hurry and they used what they had.

 

With such a vast flow of investments, there are many vaccine candidates using different technologies. In July (6 months after Wuhan), there were 200+ covid vaccine projects. Of which 29 were undergoing human trial.

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/canadian-vaccine-candidates-covid-coronavirus-1.5764874

 

IMO, there's bound to be multiple successful vaccines sooner, rather than later. Allowing us to resume cruising (with distancing) possibly by 2021.

 

Also, future pandemics will likely also see quick responses and multiple vaccines.

 

[mcrcruiser]

10 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

There is good news.

 

China quarantined Wuhan on January 23. Moderna had a candidate on February 24.

 

https://nypost.com/2020/02/25/massachusetts-biotech-firm-releases-potential-coronavirus-vaccine-for-human-testing/

 

Why was pharma able to launch promising vaccines so quickly? Never been done before!

 

That's because pharma has invested tons of money in leading edge technologies, avoiding the shortcomings of 'old' technology. The investment climate is very different from the old days.

 

https://www.prescouter.com/2019/06/pharmaceutical-rd-global-spending-trends-in-2019/

 

All they had to do when the pandemic hit, was to adapt their delivery system to the covid payload. Payday!

 

All this has nothing to do with 'warp speed'. The investments had already been made over the years.

 

What does this have to do with cruising?

 

We can be grateful that we live in the west. The Russians and Chinese are using 'old' technology? That's because they can't match the R&D investments made by the pharma industries in the capitalist economies. They're in a hurry and they used what they had.

 

With such a vast flow of investments, there are many vaccine candidates using different technologies. In July (6 months after Wuhan), there were 200+ covid vaccine projects. Of which 29 were undergoing human trial.

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/canadian-vaccine-candidates-covid-coronavirus-1.5764874

 

IMO, there's bound to be multiple successful vaccines sooner, rather than later. Allowing us to resume cruising (with distancing) possibly by 2021.

 

Also, future pandemics will likely also see quick responses and multiple vaccines.

 

This all makes sense & we certainly look forward to seeing  people enjoying their cruising vacations once again   .We follow this industry closely because one we love to cruise & secondly ,there will come a time when we add 100 shares of CCL & RCL  to the portfolio & hoping that will be sooner than later 😄

 

[mcrcruiser]

Charts looking better ,starting to buy CCL stock 😀

 

 

[d9704011]

34 minutes ago, mcrcruiser said:

Charts looking better ,starting to buy CCL stock 😀

 

 

Go for it!  Barron’s has a different opinion but trust your instincts.

 

https://www.barrons.com/articles/dont-expect-cruise-ship-sailings-to-resume-this-year-analysts-say-51603376755

[mcrcruiser]

15 minutes ago, d9704011 said:

Go for it!  Barron’s has a different opinion but trust your instincts.

 

https://www.barrons.com/articles/dont-expect-cruise-ship-sailings-to-resume-this-year-analysts-say-51603376755

Before we bought the stock & not all  100 shares I read that article . This is why  CCL is a buy imo . The stimulus will go through adding more & more liquidity to the markets  & the markets are looking forward not backyard  pr present times . We are in a melt up  in the stock market & money is cheap. There is no reason to keep  large amounts in savings banks or government bonds at todays piddly  returns .  Imo CCL is a decent buy at these prices because when cruising starts this  current $15.10 price point will be history  . what could be lost using a trailing stop loss ?  Very minimal downside imo

Edited October 22, 2020 by mcrcruiser

[d9704011]

1 hour ago, mcrcruiser said:

Before we bought the stock & not all  100 shares I read that article . This is why  CCL is a buy imo . The stimulus will go through adding more & more liquidity to the markets  & the markets are looking forward not backyard  pr present times . We are in a melt up  in the stock market & money is cheap. There is no reason to keep  large amounts in savings banks or government bonds at todays piddly  returns .  Imo CCL is a decent buy at these prices because when cruising starts this  current $15.10 price point will be history  . what could be lost using a trailing stop loss ?  Very minimal downside imo

Probably I don’t understand your insight but thanks for the gibberish.

[mcrcruiser]

7 hours ago, d9704011 said:

Probably I don’t understand your insight but thanks for the gibberish.

This is perfectly clear  money is cheap & pleanty is available to invest in stocks because who wants  returns of less than 1 %  . Inflation will eat those people alive & their money will  not buy what it does today in the future  .Being retired many tears ,we know this truth very well  .The main enemy in retirement id inflation . 

 

 when those so called safe bonds are  also paying less than a 1% return ,banks paying less than 1 %  &  the government pushing trillions $   where does the average person place their money  ?   It is obvious stocks paying nice dividends plus potential growth of capital .  Using the rule of 72   .Take that less than 1%  & divide it into 72  ,it would take 72 years to  double your money ,then ask yourself what will inflation do to that money ?  Now let us suppose you can make a 15 % return between dividends & capital growth  per year avg , Take that 15% divide it into 72 ,the answer is 4 years & 8 months to dounle your money . This is h=just a illustrative example 

 

 Now when you look at CCL stock  it closed today on the NY Stock exchange at  $15.19  ,up .71 cents (4.9%) increase in one day  .Obviously it is very doubtful that the stock will do this every day ;but even if it  doesn't  perform as well going forward  you will still be ahead of that measly less than 1% supposedly safe money in the bank  return . Now to safe guard your investment you place a trailing stop (you decide how much you are willing to loose ) . In my case I  place $2.00 trailing stop .In other words if the stock dropped to $13.19 it would sell  & I loose  $200 on 100 shares   .On the other hand if the stock continues to move forward my trailing stop moves up with the higher price as well & I can always adjust my trailing stop   .But ,there are additional benefits to owning 100 shares of CCL stock  .Take a 3 or 4 day cruise get $50 on board credit ,take 7 to 13 day cruise & get $100 on board credit 14 days or more gets a $250 on board credit .so you got a incentive than only these cruise line stocks can offer you . But don't forget that CCL will in time reinstate the dividend 

 

 I over simplified the above because I have no idea of the  level of knowledge people may or may not have in investing in stocks . Every thing has risk including life itself .It comes down as to how we handle those risks that counts   .In my portfolio we own stocks ,precious metals  & real estate  .Reason why is that no all investments move in the same direction 100% of the time & you want a diverse & balanced portfolio for a safety net 

[mcrcruiser]

If I was younger I be also buying  more prime real estate  regardless of cost  (cost is a relative term  )  ,Reason is   not the cost of say a million dollar property or higher  but ,what is my monthly  cost .with interest rates at historical lows ,a person should stretch & buy the best property they can manage financially  that they can easily afford the monthly nut  .You see this same principle can apply to lots of varied investments because our government has made   money so cheap today  & because money is so cheap good things will continue to go up in value  ;which is why we are now in a melt up  in  the USA 

[mcrcruiser]

N ow back to a subject we all love ,Cruising  .We miss it dearly  as it is easy for us to  drive relative short distance & board  the ship  to get spoiled by wonderful crews   .  We as well as our family members are looking to the day that we can safely enjoy those sea days  by taking the vaccine  & doing what rver else would keep us all safe 😃

[HappyInVan]

Who are the players in the vaccine process?

 

The vaccines are being developed by pharma companies, often in collaboration with other companies and academic research institutions. For example...

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/16/investing/pfizer-vaccine-emergency-use-authorization/index.html

 

The FDA runs the regulatory process in the USA.

 

“Marks explained Monday that the two months of safety follow-up for vaccines is important because the most serious side effects connected with shots often occur in the first several weeks after vaccination.

 

“The safety profile of a vaccine that’s going to be used in millions of people has to be incredibly clean,” Marks said in an online discussion with the Journal of American Medical Association.”

 

https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/white-house-blocks-updated-fda-guidelines-on-vaccine-approval-2140211/

 

There's a panel of medical experts that actually review the data, and makes a recommendation about approval. Often, the FDA posts guidelines that reflect the concerns of these experts, who would naturally be concerned about the use of Emergency Use Authorization that shortcuts the normal approval process.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/21/health/fda-covid-vrbpac-meeting-scheduled/index.html

 

BTW, the EUA does not mean that the general population gets vaccinated. Emergency use is reserved for very vulnerable groups. Or, very ill patients in the case of a treatment.

 

It's important for the public to have confidence in a vaccine, because we can't force people to be vaccinated. A vaccine with only 70% efficacy and only 50% deployment will not be enough.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2020/10/12/only-50-of-americans-are-willing-to-get-a-covid-19-vaccine-poll-shows/#6ffb7ab66409

 

Dr. Fauci is head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases since 1984. His group has been helping promising first-timers like Moderna...

 

https://www.niaid.nih.gov/news-events/nih-clinical-trial-investigational-vaccine-covid-19-begins

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moderna

 

The governments are responsible for logistics. Pre-purchasing in quantity. Organizing the distribution of an approved vaccine. Everyone has their part to play

 

Naturally, I value the expertise of the experts. In view of the grave mistakes made by the politicians with medical degrees from Yahoo University, the oversight by the professionals is so very important.

 

[iancal]

I believe that optimism, willful blindness, etc.  is clouding reality of a resumption of cruising for many people.   They seem to believe even the most illogical statements.

 

So, does anyone think that we are turning the corner on covid?  Really...what do yesterday's stats say.  Or this weeks stats.  Are those hospital admissions simply malingerers?   Does anyone believe that covid will peter out......how has that worked out so far?  

 

 Does anyone really believe that effective, widely available vaccines will be available by December.   The public health care professionals are predicting General Availability for the end of Q2 beginning of Q3 next year at the earliest.  This does not even address effectiveness or reactions.

 

The notion that there is a currently a cure for covid 19 or that those infected become immune?  The former is patently false, the latter preposterous based on our knowledge or lack thereof at this time.

 

That is why we have no  inclination to even think about cruising at the present time, let alone booking one.

Edited October 23, 2020 by iancal

[nocl]

4 minutes ago, iancal said:

I believe that optimism, willful blindness, etc.  is clouding reality of a resumption of cruising for many people.   They seem to believe even the most illogical statements.

 

So, does anyone think that we are turning the corner on covid?  Really...what do yesterday's stats say.  Or this weeks stats.  Are those hospital admissions simple malingerers?   Does anyone believe that covid will peter out......how has that worked out so far?

 

 Does anyone really believe that effective, widely available vaccines will be available by December.   The public health care professionals are predicting General Availability for the end of Q2 beginning of Q3 next year at the earliest.  This does not even address effectiveness or reactions.

 

The notion that there is a currently a cure for covid 19 or that those infected become immune?  The former is patently false, the latter preposterous.

 

That is why we have no  inclination to even think about cruising at the present time, let alone booking one.

No, the latter is unknown, not preposterous.  At this time the duration and nature of immunity once one is infected in unknown. There is clearly evidence that some immunity does exist, though the duration is not currently known.  So a short term immunity is not preposterous. The possibility of a permanent immunity in the general population after an infection is unlikely, though some people may end up which such immunity.

 

There are some signs that some people have demonstrated signs of resistance to infection  that may be the result of previous infections in the Corona virus family (not COVID 19) . Some interesting research is taking place on both antibody, as well as T-cell based immune responses that may help answer that question.

 

So as such I would have to disagree with your use of preposterous.  Hyperbole is not helpful by either side.

[loge23]

12 minutes ago, iancal said:

I believe that optimism, willful blindness, etc.  is clouding reality of a resumption of cruising for many people.   They seem to believe even the most illogical statements.

 

So, does anyone think that we are turning the corner on covid?  Really...what do yesterday's stats say.  Or this weeks stats.  Are those hospital admissions simply malingerers?   Does anyone believe that covid will peter out......how has that worked out so far?  

 

 Does anyone really believe that effective, widely available vaccines will be available by December.   The public health care professionals are predicting General Availability for the end of Q2 beginning of Q3 next year at the earliest.  This does not even address effectiveness or reactions.

 

The notion that there is a currently a cure for covid 19 or that those infected become immune?  The former is patently false, the latter preposterous based on our knowledge or lack thereof at this time.

 

That is why we have no  inclination to even think about cruising at the present time, let alone booking one.

Similarly, I think some people are ignoring the financial perils that cruise companies face. The $150 billion question is how long can the companies last in this environment?

I do not wish to be conspiratorial or all gloom and doom, but the facts are the facts. Can cruise lines survive a year-long shutdown? How about a 18 month shutdown? Two years? I think we're squarely facing the year-long scenario at this point, with March (one year) only five months away and no clear end to this nightmare in sight yet. 

What will a ramp-up to operations look like? 

Crews must be reassembled and transported, keeping in mind that the airlines will face the same ramp-up issues.

Supply lines, critical to cruise ship operations, will have to be rebuilt. Food supplies, shipping, and labor dependence are all issues facing this monumental task. People who work within and service the cruise industry will have gone a year or more away from the industry; will they move on? Either way, people will have to be interviewed, trained, and moved into service positions - hundreds of thousands of people. Carnival has been ordered to file Certificates of Compliance 30 days before they commence operations in US waters. Filing the Certificates is easy, assuring compliance not so much. Again, time.

But back to the financial issues: How will cruise companies cope with the mountains of debt eating at the cash flow? When, if ever, will demand spring back to pre-COVID levels? When do they throw in the towel? At least 50 new cruise ships are on order presently - that would make me really nervous if I were an industry insider.

We love cruising and we, like many others on these pages, wish for a return. But we also wish we could dine out in a restaurant, or have guests over for dinner, or attend a ballgame, or go shopping without a mask on - without being exposed to a potentially debilitating or even deadly virus.

So much has to go well before any of these things become our reality again. 

 

 

[Keksie]

23 minutes ago, loge23 said:

 

 

We love cruising and we, like many others on these pages, wish for a return. But we also wish we could dine out in a restaurant, or have guests over for dinner, or attend a ballgame, or go shopping without a mask on - without being exposed to a potentially debilitating or even deadly virus.

So much has to go well before any of these things become our reality again. 

 

 

We have been dining out every week since restaurants opened in May and have had guests over for lunch.  I wear a mask to shop in the stores that require them.  These things are reality here.

[Roger88]

1 hour ago, iancal said:

I believe that optimism, willful blindness, etc.  is clouding reality of a resumption of cruising for many people.   They seem to believe even the most illogical statements.

 

So, does anyone think that we are turning the corner on covid?  Really...what do yesterday's stats say.  Or this weeks stats.  Are those hospital admissions simply malingerers?   Does anyone believe that covid will peter out......how has that worked out so far?  

 

 Does anyone really believe that effective, widely available vaccines will be available by December.   The public health care professionals are predicting General Availability for the end of Q2 beginning of Q3 next year at the earliest.  This does not even address effectiveness or reactions.

 

The notion that there is a currently a cure for covid 19 or that those infected become immune?  The former is patently false, the latter preposterous based on our knowledge or lack thereof at this time.

 

That is why we have no  inclination to even think about cruising at the present time, let alone booking one.

We have no inclination cause we are not dealing with the problem in the proper way. I mean seriously, everything seems to me like another season of the Walking Dead, likewhat is going on? cmon guys! stay at home for two weeks and enforce the patrols 

[Shaver John]

Just cancelled our March 4th Australia Cruise. This country does not seem to be doing what we should to control this virus and so we are thinking it will be a long time before things get back to somewhat normal. Not all the way to normal but close enough to make us want to go out and about and risk our lives for a vacation. Have lots of projects to do and so we will be staying close to home. Wishing all you Cruiser good sailing and hope you have safe and healthy trips in 2021 if the ships sail.

[mcrcruiser]

1 hour ago, Shaver John said:

Just cancelled our March 4th Australia Cruise. This country does not seem to be doing what we should to control this virus and so we are thinking it will be a long time before things get back to somewhat normal. Not all the way to normal but close enough to make us want to go out and about and risk our lives for a vacation. Have lots of projects to do and so we will be staying close to home. Wishing all you Cruiser good sailing and hope you have safe and healthy trips in 2021 if the ships sail.

 We suspect that  cruise ships will sail some where in the world  next year 😃