When Will We Feel Safe to Cruise Again

[mcrcruiser]

29 minutes ago, MissP22 said:

This was my fear all along and was almost sure it would happen. 

Unless there's a vaccine, which they should make mandatory to sail, they'll never contain it from spreading on a ship. There are just to many variables to consider.

Hopefully by the fall season of 2021 things will settle down & we can return to our normal sailing schedule. In the mean time I suspect we'll see more occurrences of ship outbreaks during 2021.

Yes there are many variables that still can crop up .imo , even vaccines are at best reported so far at 90% protective & that was only based on 94 people . It remains to be seen if that 90% holds firm  going forward with the many vaccines being tested in different phases . Then ,the general public will not start getting the vaccines before April/May of 2021 . when that starts it will take months (how many months is any ones best guess ) to get just people in the US states & possessions vaccinated  . Thus ,best case scenario we see is not until 2022 will cruising begin to see the light of a pre covid 19 safety  .Again ,imo .I do not see how the US cruise lines can hold out with out getting revenues .

 

 The CDC & US  Congress /White House  may relent with certain conditions met prior to 2022 ;however ,there is no way of telling will that happen at this writing  time 

 

 Foe us older seniors with under lying medical conditions it would be extremely hazardous to board any cruise ship before 2022 ,at the earliest . Those with out underlying medical conditions & probably under 65 should be ok to cruise with out fears of dying ;however ,that leaves the cruise lines with a huge void of potential customer base of over 65 yrs of age  ;which is another hurdle they would need to overcome in their marketing of cruises to the public 

 

 

[caribill]

6 hours ago, mcrcruiser said:

.This left us with the conclusion to cancel our 2  cruises of 2022 to get our deposits refunded ; because ,we could not se sure in a bankruptcy proceeding that those deposits would be safe or lost in a reorganizing  court order . no crystal ball here

 

 

 

When airlines went through bankruptcy reorganizing, customers did not lose their prepaid flight reservations. I think in any similar situation with cruise lines, the same would be true. Otherwise they would lose their customers also.

 

Of course when an airline went out of business, the customer funds were lost and the same would be true if a cruise line went out of business.

[caribill]

On 11/9/2020 at 8:03 AM, Syracusefan44 said:

Pfizer reports it’s COVID19 vaccine is more than 90% effective.  CCL stock is dramatically in pre-market trading. 
 

 

There is a concern about lack of detailed data. Once the overall data is released, the concerns may go away.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/11/pfizer-biontech-interim-report-promising-but-lack-of-data-very-concerning/?cmpid=org=ngp::mc=crm-email::src=ngp::cmp=editorial::add=SpecialEdition_20201113&rid=5D5E90296DA3661295376EDB54751EA9

may have a paywall

 

[mcrcruiser]

2 hours ago, caribill said:

 

When airlines went through bankruptcy reorganizing, customers did not lose their prepaid flight reservations. I think in any similar situation with cruise lines, the same would be true. Otherwise they would lose their customers also.

 

Of course when an airline went out of business, the customer funds were lost and the same would be true if a cruise line went out of business.

Yes we can be at the  doorway to some things that no one has ever had to experience . Yes I remember well Pan Am aieways  ,Eastern airlines & TWA  . Those names are gone  back in airline history 

[caribill]

30 minutes ago, mcrcruiser said:

Yes we can be at the  doorway to some things that no one has ever had to experience . Yes I remember well Pan Am aieways  ,Eastern airlines & TWA  . Those names are gone  back in airline history 

TWA was acquired in bankruptcy by American Airlines. Those who had bought TWA tickets did not lose them. I do not know about FF miles, but I suspect they transferred to AA.

 

When PamAm went bankrupt, Delta bought what was left of it and again those with tickets on PamAm did not lose them.

 

Not sure about Eastern at its final bankruptcy. Before it went bankrupt, many of its parts had been sold off to other airlines. For example, the Eastern Air Lines Shuttle was sold to Donald Trump and because Trump Shuttle. Some other parts were sold to Continental Airlines.

 

 

 

 

[mcrcruiser]

8 minutes ago, caribill said:

TWA was acquired in bankruptcy by American Airlines. Those who had bought TWA tickets did not lose them. I do not know about FF miles, but I suspect they transferred to AA.

 

When PamAm went bankrupt, Delta bought what was left of it and again those with tickets on PamAm did not lose them.

 

Not sure about Eastern at its final bankruptcy. Before it went bankrupt, many of its parts had been sold off to other airlines. For example, the Eastern Air Lines Shuttle was sold to Donald Trump and because Trump Shuttle. Some other parts were sold to Continental Airlines.

 

 

 

 

Unfortunately during this rime of uncertainties  with regards to both the covid 19  spiraling upward in cases per day intil the Vaccines tale hold &  the one $billion dollar burn rate per month for CCL ,RCL & NCL  ,getting back deposits are more of our priorities than looking toward cruises .  It stands to reason that there is no comtrol as yet over this virus from spreading . People will be people & there are those who believe they are impervious to getting the virus  because they take no precautions . We have them in our own family .No masks unless required to enter stores like costco or Ralphs ie  .Even certain types of masks are not protective enough against  the covid 19 virus . I  & my wife personally have re useable N95 rated masks that fit very well ,plus we wear shields over those masks plus I bought 2 Air Tamers  for $150 each that kill off germs ie (air line pilots  use them ^v they stopped me from bronchitis attacks & inhalation treatments on cruise ships  in the infirmaries 00more than once I was in them ) .Buying these directly from the Texas distributor we paid no sales taxes .They are rechargeable using a USB cable that comes with the Air Tamer . I am very sold on it's benefit for us . The Shields we vought from amazon  at 10  pf them for $16 i=including sales tax 

 

  It seems to me that  age is the better part of valor these days

 

   

[mcrcruiser]

Now there are people in congress requesting the CDC to push up  the no sail order .In other words there is no definitive time frames yet established  by any government agency .

 

 imo, we won;t see any real cruising until the vaccines are out in mass & people get vaccinated which can go into the 3rd& 4th quarters of 2021 . Reason is we hear that vaccines for the general public start being available in April 2021 then it will take months to get many people vaccinated .how many months is any ones guess  & that is assuming that the Moderna & JnJ vaccines are also 80% effective 

 

 

 

 

[Coupe]

All of there at risk people in the US will have the vaccine in the first quarter. There is no reason that they couldn't have it before February. There is no reason not to sail. If you think there is - don't.

[capriccio]

5 hours ago, Coupe said:

All of there at risk people in the US will have the vaccine in the first quarter. There is no reason that they couldn't have it before February.

 

What is the source for these statements?  Both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines require 2 shots (Pfizer 3 weeks apart; Moderna 4 weeks apart); that alone seems like a substantial reason that "all at risk people" will not have it before February. 

[dog]

9 hours ago, Coupe said:

All of there at risk people in the US will have the vaccine in the first quarter. There is no reason that they couldn't have it before February. There is no reason not to sail. If you think there is - don't.

uSA citizens are not only ones who cruise on Princess ships.

Can you post your source?

[MissP22]

3 hours ago, dog said:

uSA citizens are not only ones who cruise on Princess ships.

Can you post your source?

Unfortunately for them, it's a reason not to let them aboard until their vaccinated.

Edited November 18, 2020 by MissP22

[mcrcruiser]

Info from Carnival no ships sailing until after Jan 21st in some ports ,then other ports by end of Feb & Tampa is end of March  .Here is the link :

 

 https://www.carnivalcorp.com/news-releases/news-release-details/carnival-cruise-line-cancels-additional-cruises-it-works-meet

 

[mcrcruiser]

Pfizer to present their covid 19 vaccine to the FDA Friday ,nov 20,2020 . We can only hope that the FDA approvals are swift . 

[d9704011]

13 minutes ago, mcrcruiser said:

Pfizer to present their covid 19 vaccine to the FDA Friday ,nov 20,2020 . We can only hope that the FDA approvals are swift . 

When the drug company (ies) apply for approval here, I hope and expect that Health Canada will take the time they need to properly review the application and won’t cut corners for the sake of expediency.

[mcrcruiser]

2 minutes ago, d9704011 said:

When the drug company (ies) apply for approval here, I hope and expect that Health Canada will take the time they need to properly review the application and won’t cut corners for the sake of expediency.

We would think that your  Health Canada qoyld some what feed off what our FDA  does  ;bit ,of course we are not Canadian citizens  .Wishing you all the best with the vaccine approvals in Canada 

[d9704011]

7 minutes ago, mcrcruiser said:

We would think that your  Health Canada qoyld some what feed off what our FDA  does  ;bit ,of course we are not Canadian citizens  .Wishing you all the best with the vaccine approvals in Canada 

I’m sure HC will consider the FDA’s approval but it won’t be a ‘rubber stamp’ process.   Who knows, may even be approved in Canada before the United States, although I think that’s doubtful.

Edited November 20, 2020 by d9704011

[drowelf]

On 11/17/2020 at 5:18 PM, Coupe said:

All of there at risk people in the US will have the vaccine in the first quarter. There is no reason that they couldn't have it before February. There is no reason not to sail. If you think there is - don't.

As someone in my early 60s and the DW a few years younger we figure that it will be 2nd Qtr 2021 before we get our first jab in the arm. 

 

And something else that I have not seen discussed is when, the crew and staff of a ship could get their vaccination? For sure most of them are not in essential services or at high risk, so they most likely might be at the end-of-the-line for the vaccines. A butt-load of vaccines have to be manufactured and distributed into folks arms. Pfizer has projected that they can make 1.3 Billion doses in 2021.  That is only about 8.25% of the worlds population that can be vaccinated in 2021. 

Edited November 20, 2020 by drowelf

[mcrcruiser]

18 hours ago, drowelf said:

As someone in my early 60s and the DW a few years younger we figure that it will be 2nd Qtr 2021 before we get our first jab in the arm. 

 

And something else that I have not seen discussed is when, the crew and staff of a ship could get their vaccination? For sure most of them are not in essential services or at high risk, so they most likely might be at the end-of-the-line for the vaccines. A butt-load of vaccines have to be manufactured and distributed into folks arms. Pfizer has projected that they can make 1.3 Billion doses in 2021.  That is only about 8.25% of the worlds population that can be vaccinated in 2021. 

It is going to take quite awhile to vaccinate the world to the point that there is herd immunity  .Just imagine the length of time it will take to get to the 70& level for the USA ,Canada ,Europe & Australia /NewZealand  for cruise pax 

Edited November 21, 2020 by mcrcruiser

[sfaaa]

So long as all the passengers and crews are vaccinated as a pre condition before they board, everyone on the ship is protected from COVID. No? It doesn't matter how long the rest of the world will get their shots.

[Cruise Raider]

1 hour ago, sfaaa said:

So long as all the passengers and crews are vaccinated as a pre condition before they board, everyone on the ship is protected from COVID. No? It doesn't matter how long the rest of the world will get their shots.

 

Not necessarily everyone but, to a high degree.  At least it would be able to prevent an outbreak and that is all we can ask for.  

[mcrcruiser]

6 hours ago, sfaaa said:

So long as all the passengers and crews are vaccinated as a pre condition before they board, everyone on the ship is protected from COVID. No? It doesn't matter how long the rest of the world will get their shots.

Yes however ,all pax vaccinated must be   done  in time to take effect  ,similar to the flu shot which takes 3 weeks to build immunity in the system  .Thus ,there will need to be proof that the people had been vaccinated in time for that particular cruise . Additionally there may be some people because of medical conditions can not be vaccinated .In that case then they must be tested & be free of the covie virus  befrore boarding 

 

 We certainly do not want to have any repeats of quarantine on the ships 

[memoak]

On 11/20/2020 at 12:58 PM, drowelf said:

As someone in my early 60s and the DW a few years younger we figure that it will be 2nd Qtr 2021 before we get our first jab in the arm. 

 

And something else that I have not seen discussed is when, the crew and staff of a ship could get their vaccination? For sure most of them are not in essential services or at high risk, so they most likely might be at the end-of-the-line for the vaccines. A butt-load of vaccines have to be manufactured and distributed into folks arms. Pfizer has projected that they can make 1.3 Billion doses in 2021.  That is only about 8.25% of the worlds population that can be vaccinated in 2021. 

You are only mentioning 1 vaccine there should be at least 4 ready to go by March

[caribill]

Here is the experience with required pre-flight testing for airline flights. I do not see how pre-cruise testing could have any different results.

 

A traveler tested negative for covid-19 before a flight. He had the virus and infected 4 passengers.

 

The study details an outbreak linked to one passenger on an 18-hour flight from Dubai to New Zealand in September.

 

Health officials in New Zealand, a country that has a strict 14-day quarantine in place for arriving travelers, released a case study on Friday that details the risks of traveling on long-haul flights during the coronavirus pandemic — even if negative coronavirus tests are required before the flight.

 

The report details a coronavirus outbreak linked through DNA analysis to one passenger on an 18-hour flight from Dubai to New Zealand in September. The traveler, who tested negative for the coronavirus with a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test within 48 hours of the flight, was contagious but pre-symptomatic onboard the plane, and infected at least four other passengers.

In total there were seven cases linked to the flight, which had 86 passengers onboard.

 

“This case speaks to how hard it is to keep infected people off a flight, even if you do PCR testing in a narrow window of time before the flight,” David Freedman, an infectious-disease specialist at the University of Alabama at Birmingham who has reviewed the report, told The Washington Post.

 

“The original case most likely became infectious after he took the preflight test, but in fact was not symptomatic until 71 hours after the flight,” Freedman said.

 

PCR coronavirus tests are estimated to be about 98 percent effective at detecting the coronavirus, which is why they are required by many countries for entry.

 

full article at

https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/2020/11/20/new-zealand-flight-covid/?utm_campaign=wp_evening_edition&utm

 

(there may be a paywall)

[ABoatNerd]

All we can do is wait and see.

The amount of pressure on Big Pharm to deliver a solution to the Wuhan virus must be mindboggling.

 

But I remain skeptical that it will actually stop the spread of the W virus. More information circulating today that there has not been sufficient exposure of volunteers to the actual virus due to lockdown and other personal measures. This means the 97% "success" rate quoted is not the same as the efficiency rate of the flu vaccine because people do not wear masks in flu season and they are actually more exposed to the flu virus.

 

The vaccines may, may reduce symptoms which would be hugely beneficial.

 

It is always necessary to not believe anything and question everything.

[HappyInVan]

I wouldn't be so pessimistic. Europe is starting to peak, after their stern measures. Ontario's lockdown in Toronto will break this surge. Places with poor management will just have to suffer until they get vaccinated. 🙂

Edited November 22, 2020 by HappyInVan