When Will We Feel Safe to Cruise Again

[Syracusefan44]

Pfizer reports it’s COVID19 vaccine is more than 90% effective.  CCL stock is dramatically in pre-market trading. 
 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/covid-vaccine-pfizer-drug-is-more-than-90percent-effective-in-preventing-infection.html

Edited November 9, 2020 by Syracusefan44

[Daniel A]

11 hours ago, nocl said:

I expect an actuary doing risk calculations on cruise ships from march until the shutdown would come up with considerably higher risk numbers than the other examples you listed.

 

1 hour ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

Not sure I'd agree with this statement. According to tabulations by insurance companies, 77 percent of car accidents occur within 15 miles or less of home. And car accidents are certainly far more frequent than any of the other possibilities discussed (such as bird strikes or pilot error).

 

For years I've joked with my family that when I travel I am actually far safer, statistically speaking, than when I am at home and engaging in my normal 1.5 hour commute to and from work....

Just to be clear, I was referencing all forms of transportation as travel.  People commuting to work are nonetheless travelling even if they're not going to see the Pyramids at Giza during the drive.  My point was that we do what we can do to reduce risk but we can just about never remove all risk and guarantee absolute safety in any endeavor - including travel of all types.  I am a firm believer in taking all reasonable measures to reduce risk in our everyday lives.  I'm not anti mask or anti vaccine.

 

Stay safe.

[cruisemom42]

18 minutes ago, Daniel A said:

 

Just to be clear, I was referencing all forms of transportation as travel.  People commuting to work are nonetheless travelling even if they're not going to see the Pyramids at Giza during the drive.  My point was that we do what we can do to reduce risk but we can just about never remove all risk and guarantee absolute safety in any endeavor - including travel of all types.  I am a firm believer in taking all reasonable measures to reduce risk in our everyday lives.  I'm not anti mask or anti vaccine.

 

Stay safe.

 

Thanks for clarifying. Speaking as an editor, there IS a difference between travel and transportation. 😉

 

From: What's the difference between travel and transportation?

 

As verbs the difference between transport and travel is that transport is to carry or bear from one place to another; to remove; to convey while travel is to be on a journey, often for pleasure or business and with luggage; to go from one place to another.
 

As nouns the difference between transport and travel is that transport is an act of transporting; conveyance while travel is the act of traveling.

 

https://wikidiff.com/transport/travel#:~:text=is that transport is to,from one place to another.

Edited November 9, 2020 by cruisemom42

[Daniel A]

3 hours ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

Thanks for clarifying. Speaking as an editor, there IS a difference between travel and transportation. 😉

 

From: What's the difference between travel and transportation?

 

As verbs the difference between transport and travel is that transport is to carry or bear from one place to another; to remove; to convey while travel is to be on a journey, often for pleasure or business and with luggage; to go from one place to another.
 

As nouns the difference between transport and travel is that transport is an act of transporting; conveyance while travel is the act of traveling.

 

https://wikidiff.com/transport/travel#:~:text=is that transport is to,from one place to another.

I believe you made my point with your post.  See above captioned definition after the last semicolon.  Certainly commuting or going from home to the grocery store meets the last part of that definition.  It is going from one place to another.  But at this point I'm splitting hairs, not worth pursuing any more.  🙂

[caribill]

18 hours ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

Not sure I'd agree with this statement. According to tabulations by insurance companies, 77 percent of car accidents occur within 15 miles or less of home.

 

 

And that is because most people do almost all of their driving within 15 miles of their homes.

 

The reason the government allows babies to be carried on a plane instead of requiring a seat for them is that statistics shows the babies have a greater chance of dying if they are being driven to a destination than if they fly to that destination.

[mcrcruiser]

Yacht Sea Dream with 57 pax & 66 crew   on a Caribbean cruise just reported one case of covid 19 tested positive aboard  .Not good news for the  industry 

[MissP22]

2 hours ago, mcrcruiser said:

Yacht Sea Dream with 57 pax & 66 crew   on a Caribbean cruise just reported one case of covid 19 tested positive aboard  .Not good news for the  industry 

Sad,

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/cruises/2020/11/11/seadream-yacht-club-ends-first-caribbean-cruise-after-positive-test/6253380002/

[Daniel A]

14 minutes ago, MissP22 said:

Sad,

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/cruises/2020/11/11/seadream-yacht-club-ends-first-caribbean-cruise-after-positive-test/6253380002/

False positives have ruined a few cruises now.  I can think of two where false positives caused problems.  How would you like to be quarantined because one person tested false positive?

[cruisemom42]

31 minutes ago, Daniel A said:

False positives have ruined a few cruises now.  I can think of two where false positives caused problems.  How would you like to be quarantined because one person tested false positive?

 

The passenger apparently was symptomatic and had actually request a test due to not feeling well. So in all likelihood this is not a false positive. Apparently CC has two writers onboard so expect updates....

[Daniel A]

27 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

The passenger apparently was symptomatic and had actually request a test due to not feeling well. So in all likelihood this is not a false positive. Apparently CC has two writers onboard so expect updates....

Yes, my post wasn't meant to say this is a false positive, just that the false positives are ruining some people's cruises.  We still need a more accurate form of testing onboard.

[mcrcruiser]

8 hours ago, Daniel A said:

Yes, my post wasn't meant to say this is a false positive, just that the false positives are ruining some people's cruises.  We still need a more accurate form of testing onboard.

 There is need for a quick test that even people at home can self administer  .We heard that there is a small bio tec company  that can bring about this type of quick test .I did not want to pay the research firm the type of money they wanted to get the  name of that company . It was from Stansberry & associates 

 

 If this is all true then it will be  boon to all the travel industry 

 

 

 

 

[mcrcruiser]

8 hours ago, Daniel A said:

Yes, my post wasn't meant to say this is a false positive, just that the false positives are ruining some people's cruises.  We still need a more accurate form of testing onboard.

Agreed 

[MissP22]

10 hours ago, Daniel A said:

Yes, my post wasn't meant to say this is a false positive, just that the false positives are ruining some people's cruises.  We still need a more accurate form of testing onboard.

False positive or not....until there's a more effective way of testing & prevention (vaccine) we'll be waiting it out. I still believe many people feel the same. 

Just because they might offer a real deal to get people to sail isn't enough incentive to get us aboard, especially considering the restriction during the trip.

[d9704011]

1 hour ago, MissP22 said:

False positive or not....until there's a more effective way of testing & prevention (vaccine) we'll be waiting it out. I still believe many people feel the same. 

Agree with your entire post 100%.

 

As for the false positive business and the potential for ruining people’s cruise experience, I’d be more concerned about the false negatives and the potential impact of those.

[Daniel A]

2 hours ago, d9704011 said:

Agree with your entire post 100%.

 

As for the false positive business and the potential for ruining people’s cruise experience, I’d be more concerned about the false negatives and the potential impact of those.

You're absolutely correct!  Both are a big concern.  I understood the need to quickly develop testing for Covid-19  but as time goes on, we should be striving for more accurate tests as well as developing vaccines and therapeutics. Otherwise, testing will not work to keep Covid free environments.

[mcrcruiser]

12 hours ago, Daniel A said:

You're absolutely correct!  Both are a big concern.  I understood the need to quickly develop testing for Covid-19  but as time goes on, we should be striving for more accurate tests as well as developing vaccines and therapeutics. Otherwise, testing will not work to keep Covid free environments.

Seems to me that it will take at least 10 billion injections at 2 injections to  get just 70% of the worlds population  vaccinated for herd immunity . right now the best scenario seems to be just 300,000,000  injectable vaccines by March /April  2021  .That is a very long way from the 10 billion number  & remember for just 70% . Then add the possibility that this virus nutates more than once & the pharma companies must remake the vaccine to combat the new strains as well as those manufacturing antibody therapies  . The logistics  of production & distribution are immense 

[Daniel A]

10 hours ago, mcrcruiser said:

Seems to me that it will take at least 10 billion injections at 2 injections to  get just 70% of the worlds population  vaccinated for herd immunity . right now the best scenario seems to be just 300,000,000  injectable vaccines by March /April  2021  .That is a very long way from the 10 billion number  & remember for just 70% . Then add the possibility that this virus nutates more than once & the pharma companies must remake the vaccine to combat the new strains as well as those manufacturing antibody therapies  . The logistics  of production & distribution are immense 

Gee, you are making this sound hopeless.  It isn't hopeless as long as we keep plugging away.  Take heart!

[mcrcruiser]

4 hours ago, Daniel A said:

Gee, you are making this sound hopeless.  It isn't hopeless as long as we keep plugging away.  Take heart!

It is not hopeless ;however ,it is reality .  Because of this virus increasing in daily cases reported ,we decided to cancel 2 cruises & both were in 2022 . Min reason is with one $billion dollar burn rate of their cash reserves CCL ,RCL & NCL  may have to file for reorganizing under the bankruptcy laws  .Although they are not there yet ,the lines may  find that they can not cruise after Jan 1 ,2021   .This virus attacked 5 people on that Sea Dream cruise & now the  passengers are all quarantined to the ship  .The CDC will have a lot to say about this issue  

 

 Iimo the safety of cruising may not  be seen until well into 2022 or 2023  . Thus ,if that does occur the cruise lines will not  have the resources to survive 

[voljeep]

these new cruises are a beautiful thing - people have made choices , this time fully knowing the risks associated with cruising and the Corona virus

 

let's hope all cruise lines are following this ongoing situation and developing protocols 

[chipmaster]

1 hour ago, mcrcruiser said:

It is not hopeless ;however ,it is reality .  Because of this virus increasing in daily cases reported ,we decided to cancel 2 cruises & both were in 2022 . Min reason is with one $billion dollar burn rate of their cash reserves CCL ,RCL & NCL  may have to file for reorganizing under the bankruptcy laws  .Although they are not there yet ,the lines may  find that they can not cruise after Jan 1 ,2021   .This virus attacked 5 people on that Sea Dream cruise & now the  passengers are all quarantined to the ship  .The CDC will have a lot to say about this issue  

 

 Iimo the safety of cruising may not  be seen until well into 2022 or 2023  . Thus ,if that does occur the cruise lines will not  have the resources to survive 

 

Will there be cruising, yes, what it will look like and who will be there, that is the 20 billion dollar question the lenders are wondering and gambling about, LOL

[nocl]

On 11/12/2020 at 6:28 AM, Daniel A said:

You're absolutely correct!  Both are a big concern.  I understood the need to quickly develop testing for Covid-19  but as time goes on, we should be striving for more accurate tests as well as developing vaccines and therapeutics. Otherwise, testing will not work to keep Covid free environments.

You can have the best test in the world, but if the virus (or the biomarker you are using in place of the virus is not in the sample) then even the best test fails. PCR is much more accurate than the quick antigen tests, but even with people showing symptoms the virus can be undetectable in the swabs or spit sample.

[caribill]

12 hours ago, mcrcruiser said:

This virus attacked 5 people on that Sea Dream cruise & now the  passengers are all quarantined to the ship  .The CDC will have a lot to say about this issue  

 

 

https://news.yahoo.com/cdc-putting-american-lives-risk-204133748.html

[Lucky TGO]

When will we feel safe to cruise? I think that day is a LONG way off. 
Tony

[MissP22]

2 hours ago, caribill said:

 

https://news.yahoo.com/cdc-putting-american-lives-risk-204133748.html

This was my fear all along and was almost sure it would happen. 

Unless there's a vaccine, which they should make mandatory to sail, they'll never contain it from spreading on a ship. There are just to many variables to consider.

Hopefully by the fall season of 2021 things will settle down & we can return to our normal sailing schedule. In the mean time I suspect we'll see more occurrences of ship outbreaks during 2021.

[mcrcruiser]

3 hours ago, caribill said:

 

https://news.yahoo.com/cdc-putting-american-lives-risk-204133748.html

We agree with this letter's intentions . Adding my own perspective , foreign crew members will require in depth testing many times before during & after their contracts end .  Then as vaccines become more readily available each of the crew will have to be vaccinated & if there are some than can not take a vaccine they can not be on the ships  .

 

 It seems to me that the vaccines will not be readily available to the general public before april /May of  2021  .Then the vaccines will be used based on priorities set up by our government what groups of people receive the first doses

 

 Even with the vaccines there is still the chance of spreading this virus especially if it mutates . Many variables that must be considered

 

 With the current cash burn rate of one $billion per month by CCL ,RCL & NCL  ,it really isn;t that long before the lines would need to file for reorganizing under the bankruptcy laws  .Since the lines cruise ships are all foreign flag vessels & do not pay US taxes ,we do not see congress passing any stimulus aid to the cruise lines .This left us with the conclusion to cancel our 2  cruises of 2022 to get our deposits refunded ; because ,we could not se sure in a bankruptcy proceeding that those deposits would be safe or lost in a reorganizing  court order . no crystal ball here .

 

 The foregoing is my opinion only