NCL Has Suspended All Cruises Through November So I would Expect A Similar Announcement From Oceania

[njhorseman]

NCL just posted on their website that the cruise suspension has been extended through November 2020, and for three of their ships through March 2021. I would expect a similar announcement from Oceania shortly.

[pinotlover]

Oceania has cancelled theirs likewise.

[Flatbush Flyer]

Here's the official Oceania announcement regarding their ships cancelled for November 2020 (other than Insignia- ATW previously cancelled):

https://www.oceaniacruises.com/coronavirus-statement

Now, if they'd just publish the schedule for the remainder of 2022.👀

Edited October 5, 2020 by Flatbush Flyer

[Queen of DaNile]

Dang. Knew it was coming but hate to see it. Bye, bye La Reserve for November.

[GICNJC]

The chance of any December cruise before mid December is now .0001% due to the need for 30 to 45 days required to get cew aboard, training, provesioning,  and getting ships to starting port.  If CDC extends no sail to November 15, chances for any  cruise before January 1st are very slim to none.

[RJB]

2 hours ago, Queen of DaNile said:

Dang. Knew it was coming but hate to see it. Bye, bye La Reserve for November.

We all hate to see it.  For us since it will be some time until we can cruise but even more for all of the crew and the home office employees.  We are just missing a vacation, but they have to feed their families.  Awful. 

[Mrs f.]

Our Dec. 1 Sydney  to Sydney  still has not been cancelled....even though we all know it's not happening. And they have the specialty restaurant  reservations list up.

[pinotlover]

Why don’t they employ the new Abbot 15 minute testing system and only allow those that pass onto the ship? It cost $5! I’ll give them the extra $5! If O is controlling the tours, then what’s the issue?

[deadzone1003]

4 hours ago, GICNJC said:

The chance of any December cruise before mid December is now .0001% due to the need for 30 to 45 days required to get cew aboard, training, provesioning,  and getting ships to starting port.  If CDC extends no sail to November 15, chances for any  cruise before January 1st are very slim to none.

Well, there is still 56 days until Dec. 1 so cruising starting Dec. 1 is more 50-50 than 0.0001%.  The cruise industry and the government were supposed to meet last Friday, but VP Pence had to be tested for the virus.  I believe he gets the final say on the matter since Trump has delegated responsibility to him.  Supposedly, they will try to meet this week.  We'll probably find out by the end of the day.  

[Paulchili]

34 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

Why don’t they employ the new Abbot 15 minute testing system and only allow those that pass onto the ship? It cost $5! I’ll give them the extra $5! If O is controlling the tours, then what’s the issue?

Is that the one where the president tested neg only to be positive immediately after with a different test?😀

From what I read it is convenient but not reliable.

[GICNJC]

NCL and Oceania have cancelled all cruises until November 30 2020.  Even if the have the cancelled VP Pence meeting, you will have to allow a minimum of 30 days from that meeting to get the ships ready for sailing.  (all lines say 30 days for phased in sailing from date they are allowed to GO).  

 

The real questions is how soon can they have the meeting with the outbreak of COVID in the Whitehouse.  I suspect it will not happen this week or next.

[deadzone1003]

There is no test that is totally reliable.  PCR is the most reliable, but, supposedly, each lab determines the sensitivity of the test rather than FDA( or CDC).  If the sensitivity is too high, you will get more false positives.  Furthermore, there is really no penalty for false positives, but a false negative may lead you to legal problems (at a minimum, some embarassment).   So, it is not surprising that there are so many false negatives.  Remember the Mein Schiff where 6 crew members tested positive, but they turned out all of them to be false positives.  Scenarios like the Mein Schiff will plague the cruising industry occasionally until a more reliable test can be developed.  

[deadzone1003]

10 minutes ago, GICNJC said:

NCL and Oceania have cancelled all cruises until November 30 2020.  Even if the have the cancelled VP Pence meeting, you will have to allow a minimum of 30 days from that meeting to get the ships ready for sailing.  (all lines say 30 days for phased in sailing from date they are allowed to GO).  

 

The real questions is how soon can they have the meeting with the outbreak of COVID in the Whitehouse.  I suspect it will not happen this week or next.

Don't be surprised if a zoom meeting occurs and cruising is allowed to re-start, at least, on a limited basis on Dec. 1.  

 

I suspect with all the movements in the Meditterrean in the last 10 days that they are probably testing their new equipment and some of their new procedures.  Getting the crew back, tested, quarantined, and trained in the new procedures is another story.  30 days is possible if everything goes perfect, without a hitch, but so far that hasn't been the story with most cruiselines.  So 45-50 days is a more reasonable expectation but that is still within timeframe for Dec. 1st re-start.  The 1st cruise departure date is the Dec. 1 for the Regatta for a Around Australia cruise, but Oceania doesn't need the CDC to approve of that cruise, but the Australia govt. has to approved of it which is unlikely.  That leaves the Riviera on the 3rd as the most likely Oceania ship to return to cruising first, my FCC cruise.😷  

[pinotlover]

My Marina cruise isn’t until 28 January. Today they cancelled my November cruise. If they cancel that January cruise, I’m canceling all my other booked cruises with them. My TA told me none of her other customers are now taking FCC, all are wanting their money back! They can only play the month by month cancel game so long before a mass exit!

[ORV]

28 minutes ago, deadzone1003 said:

Don't be surprised if a zoom meeting occurs and cruising is allowed to re-start, at least, on a limited basis on Dec. 1.  

 

I suspect with all the movements in the Meditterrean in the last 10 days that they are probably testing their new equipment and some of their new procedures.  Getting the crew back, tested, quarantined, and trained in the new procedures is another story.  30 days is possible if everything goes perfect, without a hitch, but so far that hasn't been the story with most cruiselines.  So 45-50 days is a more reasonable expectation but that is still within timeframe for Dec. 1st re-start.  The 1st cruise departure date is the Dec. 1 for the Regatta for a Around Australia cruise, but Oceania doesn't need the CDC to approve of that cruise, but the Australia govt. has to approved of it which is unlikely.  That leaves the Riviera on the 3rd as the most likely Oceania ship to return to cruising first, my FCC cruise.😷  

Do you have any proof for this or is it all supposition on your part?

[clo]

1 hour ago, Erndog72 said:

The way everyone is so paranoid, I could see this dragging out month by month through next year, too.

If it's "dragging out" perhaps it's because no real progress has been made yet. They have to have data.

[clo]

1 hour ago, deadzone1003 said:

Australia

Isn't Australia closed down?

 

[njhorseman]

1 hour ago, deadzone1003 said:

 

I suspect with all the movements in the Meditterrean in the last 10 days that they are probably testing their new equipment and some of their new procedures.

Testing mechanical operations, yes, but how do they test new procedures with nothing beyond a skeleton operating crew being on board? They answer is they can't. They need a full crew compliment. In fact here's what Royal Caribbean's CEO and chairman said today about how they're going to proceed. In particular note they will embark crew for a series of non-revenue test sailings.  I doubt it will be much different for NCLH and Carnival Corp. ships as NCLH and Royal jointly developed their proposed protocols and CLIA subsequently adopted them.

 

https://www.cruisecritic.com/news/5644/

 

"Fain said that while the line hopes to be able to restart soon, it "won't happen overnight." It will take time to work through the process of getting ships and crews into the appropriate places to enable a measured, safe restart.According to Fain, Royal Caribbean will initially embark its crew and sail on a series of non-revenue "test sailings, where we can rehearse, and we can validate the new protocols."Starting with a ship or two at first, Royal Caribbean's initial sailings will likely be short voyages with limited destinations and controlled shore excursions, Fain said."We understand the importance of getting this right," he said."

Edited October 5, 2020 by njhorseman

[Daniel A]

30 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

 I doubt it will be much different for NCLH and Carnival Corp. ships as NCLH and Royal jointly developed their proposed protocols and CLIA subsequently adopted them.

The proposals from RCCL and NCLH were strictly for input to the CDC's public comment requirement for developing regulations.  They outlined 74 different protocols in their suggestions.  CLIA came out on September 21 with only 6 mandatory protocols, so I don't think CLIA adopted the recommendations from only two of their 60 cruise line members.  Just MYHO...

[deadzone1003]

1 hour ago, ORV said:

Do you have any proof for this or is it all supposition on your part?

All supposition, unfortunately.  The next few weeks will determine if I'm right or not.  I'm no better or worst than those who think cruising will re-start next summer or later.  At least, I have a Dec. 3rd cruise on the Riviera that I'm signed up for (with FCC) so I have a little more incentive to get things right.  Funny I would have more incentive for Oceania to cancel my cruise so my FCC can get rolled over into '21 or '22.  My wife and I are just simply not afraid of going on this cruise as of this moment.  We may still cancel the cruise if we feel the situation becomes riskier and we will lose our FCC, but right now, it's a go.  Hey, driving a car is riskier than going on a cruise for me.  Having to fly into and out of Hong Kong in late January and early March sort of remove fear of flying with covid19 quite a bit, especially when the plane was 90% Chinese - maybe, I'm the Chinese Alfred E. Neuman - What, me worry?.  Everyone assess risks differently.  For anyone, the more information you have the better you can assess the risk.

[rln44]

We are scheduled on  the December 19th sailing on the Marina from Lima to  Buenos Aires.  We would love to take this cruise but are feeling pretty pessimistic.  Just received an email from our TA that our final payment is still due in a couple of weeks.

[njhorseman]

1 hour ago, Daniel A said:

The proposals from RCCL and NCLH were strictly for input to the CDC's public comment requirement for developing regulations.  They outlined 74 different protocols in their suggestions.  CLIA came out on September 21 with only 6 mandatory protocols, so I don't think CLIA adopted the recommendations from only two of their 60 cruise line members.  Just MYHO...

No, the Healthy Sail Panel formed by NCLH and Royal Caribbean started its work in June and it was not formed in response to the CDC's public comment request, which was made on July 16, over a month after the panel began operating. The Healthy Sail Panel was announced as "a collaboration to develop enhanced cruise health and safety standards in response to the global COVID-19 pandemic. "  Its work goes beyond what would have been needed for input in response to the CDC public comment request and is an attempt to answer the requirements imposed by the CDC that go all the way back to the original No Sail Order issued in March but never addressed in depth and detail by the cruise lines.

 

Further, while the panel was a joint effort of NCL and Royal, it included observers from  CLIA, Carnival, MSC and the CDC, so CLIA was on board and aware of the direction the panel was headed from the beginning.

 

 On the same day the Healthy Sail Panel formally published its findings, September 21, CLIA and its member cruise lines announced "Mandatory Core Elements of Health Protocols"  https://cruising.org/en/news-and-research/press-room/2020/september/clia-and-its-cruise-line-members-announce-mandatory-core-elements-of-health-protocols   which are based on the Healthy Sail Panel recommendations with input from others. So...yes CLIA absolutely did adopt the panel's recommendations.

 

"Core elements include a travel-industry first with 100% testing for passengers and crew

Washington, DC (September 21, 2020)—Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA), which represents 95% of global ocean-going cruise capacity, announced today the adoption of mandatory core elements of a strong set of health protocols to be implemented as part of a phased-in, highly controlled resumption of operations. A critical next step, now that initial sailing has begun effectively with strict protocols in Europe, is the resumption of operations in the Caribbean, Mexico and Central America (the Americas), which encompass the largest cruise market in the world.

Informed by leading scientists, medical experts, and health authorities, the core elements are the product of extensive work by CLIA oceangoing cruise lines and their renowned teams of science and medical experts, including the recommendations from the Healthy Sail panel established by Royal Caribbean Group and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. released today, as well as MSC’s Blue Ribbon group and Carnival Corporation’s collection of outside independent experts. Other considerations included the effective protocols developed for the successful sailings in Europe by MSC Cruises, Costa, TUI Cruises, Ponant, Seadream, and others.

The CLIA Global Board unanimously voted to adopt all of the listed core elements for an initial restart of limited operations in the Americas and, most important, operations related to U.S. ports."

Edited October 5, 2020 by njhorseman

[nikless]

19 hours ago, pinotlover said:

Why don’t they employ the new Abbot 15 minute testing system and only allow those that pass onto the ship? It cost $5! I’ll give them the extra $5! If O is controlling the tours, then what’s the issue?

The problem is that everyone accepts the negative test, but when someone tests positive, they rush to re-test.  Neighbor of mine tested positive on Monday, the was retested on Wednesday and was negative.

Which test result should you believe?

 

Back in the 90s, there was a court decision-US vs Barr laboratories, where the FDA cited Barr for continually retesting when an out of spec result (test failure)was found.  The decision pretty much evolved into a regulation where you can not retest unless, through investigation, a valid reason was found for negating the original result, such as laboratory error, expired standards/reagents/mis-calculations, equipment malfunction, calibration issues, etc.  As an auditor, I have seen situations where the original test result was a failure, and the manufacturer felt it was an anomaly, and so they retested it until they got a passing result.  

Same goes for virus testing...once it's negative, everyone wants to accept it.  But if positive, then they think there is something wrong with the test.

 

Right now PCR appears to be the most reliable.

 

[deadzone1003]

1 hour ago, nikless said:

The problem is that everyone accepts the negative test, but when someone tests positive, they rush to re-test.  Neighbor of mine tested positive on Monday, the was retested on Wednesday and was negative.

Which test result should you believe?

 

Back in the 90s, there was a court decision-US vs Barr laboratories, where the FDA cited Barr for continually retesting when an out of spec result (test failure)was found.  The decision pretty much evolved into a regulation where you can not retest unless, through investigation, a valid reason was found for negating the original result, such as laboratory error, expired standards/reagents/mis-calculations, equipment malfunction, calibration issues, etc.  As an auditor, I have seen situations where the original test result was a failure, and the manufacturer felt it was an anomaly, and so they retested it until they got a passing result.  

Same goes for virus testing...once it's negative, everyone wants to accept it.  But if positive, then they think there is something wrong with the test.

 

Right now PCR appears to be the most reliable.

 

I believe the thinking is if the test is positive and he looks healthy as an ox, then they think there might be something wrong with the test.  Not everyone could in that stage where they are infected, but still asymptomatic.  If they were infected and asymptomatic, symptoms should start appearing in a few days.  Most of those false positives were due to the sensitiivity of the tests.  We still don't have a 100% reliable test for the virus.  The PCR test is the most reliable.  Theoretically, you can get swabbed and the swabs sent to two labs - you can get one positive PCR test and one negative PCR test, due to one''s lab having a higher sensitivity setting on their equipment.  In Florida there were so many independent labs that were reporting 100% of the cases were positive while hospital labs were maybe at around 10% or less during the height of the pandemic over the summer.  If a lab is on a CYA mode, they would err on a higher sensitivity setting.