Are O's fares dramatically rising for 2021?

[Nashna]

I just did a price check on my April sailing and found that our fare had increased by $2,000.00 per person since we booked in June.  The sailing is actually showing more availability than it had when we originally booked.  I noticed a similiar price increase on a Viking 2021 cummer cruise that we did not book but have been looking at since June.  Could it be that the cruise lines have so much outstanding 125% credit that they are compensating by raising the prices?  Perhaps, othe cruise lines are anticipating sailing with fewer passengers so they need to raise their revenue?  Then again, it might be as simple as the cruise lines were attempting to get new bookings in June for the 2021 season and reduced the pricing to encourage booking.  

[cruiseaholic78]

Have you had a look at the difference between 2021 and 2022.

Nautica B1 Eu   8969 for 2021 I think this has just been reduced. Tokyo-Dubai

Nautica B1 Eu 11459 for 2022 Tokyo-Dubai

Needless to say which one we are hoping to book! however they are a nogo until there is a vaccine.

Rosalyn

 

[pinotlover]

Add to your numbers the revenue Oceania will be adding by mandatory ship shore tours only! 

[pinotlover]

Pent up demand + reduced capacity = higher prices.

 

This works for the short term. In February, Oceania will release its remaining 2022 and early 2023 sailings. The algorithms are spinning on how to price those! There will come a date, 2nd half of next year, when a vaccine will be available and probably mandatory. At that time, capacity restrictions can be lifted and cabins will open up for 2021 sailings and currently posted early 22 sailings. My guess is prices will then drop to fill the ships.

 

I’ll likewise guess they’ll come out with aggressive pricing in February for those future cruises, not wanting people to cancel upcoming cruises because of price differentials. There are always those that cost doesn’t matter or they have to have that special cabin and will pay whatever O posts. I’m guessing the smart money waits on booking those far out cruises. The formula above reverts. Current Pent up demand disappears and capacity is increased. Back to the old job of filling ships . Predictable overall price deceases by late next year to entice travelers.

 

Moral to the story is, we have no intentions on booking any these currently aggressively priced cruises. Young enough to wait.

[alcpa1]

Two of the O cruises we have booked for 2021 and 2022 had a rate drop last week for new bookings. We could have cancelled and rebooked but one is a cabin specific booking and just didn't want to risk loosing it. We are watching the 2022 cruise and will cancel and rebook if the rates drop enough to make it worthwhile.

I think the rates will increase when cruising resumes. But in the meantime there are, what we consider, reasonable fares to be had. 

O excursions are another consideration. If we have to go with the herd........it's going to be tally up and not tally ho.

Another factor that will play a role will be airfares. How many times have we seen our fellow Cruise Critic members moan and groan about the air being higher than the cruise?

There's lots more than just the cruise fare to think about.

[LHT28]

9 hours ago, alcpa1 said:

Two of the O cruises we have booked for 2021 and 2022 had a rate drop last week for new bookings. We could have cancelled and rebooked but one is a cabin specific booking and just didn't want to risk loosing it.

 

Just  call your TA & ask for the new rate 😷

[bebtwice]

Agree with LHT28 about contacting your TA or Oceania regarding a price reduction. When the Ultimate Sale started, we noticed our fare changed by about $1100/person. Emailed O , figuring it would take several days for them to get back to me. Within 15 minutes I had a new invoice at the lower price for the same cabin, same cruise. No cancelling and re-booking involved.

[alcpa1]

We did call our TA. Obviously we had a little something extra thrown in that would have skewed our fare. We did get one price alteration a few months ago and will keep an eye on rates since we have a good eight months before our 2021 cruise and over 15 months on the second O cruise currently booked.

[KirkNC]

On 10/19/2020 at 2:19 PM, pinotlover said:

Pent up demand + reduced capacity = higher prices.

 

This works for the short term. In February, Oceania will release its remaining 2022 and early 2023 sailings. The algorithms are spinning on how to price those! There will come a date, 2nd half of next year, when a vaccine will be available and probably mandatory. At that time, capacity restrictions can be lifted and cabins will open up for 2021 sailings and currently posted early 22 sailings. My guess is prices will then drop to fill the ships.

 

I’ll likewise guess they’ll come out with aggressive pricing in February for those future cruises, not wanting people to cancel upcoming cruises because of price differentials. There are always those that cost doesn’t matter or they have to have that special cabin and will pay whatever O posts. I’m guessing the smart money waits on booking those far out cruises. The formula above reverts. Current Pent up demand disappears and capacity is increased. Back to the old job of filling ships . Predictable overall price deceases by late next year to entice travelers.

 

Moral to the story is, we have no intentions on booking any these currently aggressively priced cruises. Young enough to wait.

I recently read an article that said it will be well into 2022 before everyone in the US will have been able to receive a vaccine shot.  Remember it will take over 600 million doses just for the US plus I am sure you want people in ports you visit to be vaccinated as well.  A huge logistical challenge.

[pinotlover]

Kirk;

 

It depends. First, we don’t know which vaccine(s) will be approved. Will they require one dose or two? That 360ish million doses or twice that?

 

Demographics on the various cruise lines vary a lot. To say the least, Oceania leans towards the more senior side of cruisers, especially when considering the mass lines.

Front page headlines in today’s local paper was about the School superintendents outlining the challenges Covid has created to our state lawmakers. The students are falling further behind and they don’t have a plan on how to play catch-up. Proficiency rates are plunging for the students. They must get the students and teachers back into the classrooms.

 

Hold on a second! We have the hired advocates for the elderly. Those hired guns say it’s the aged that are most vulnerable, they are the ones that need the vaccine(s) first, after the 1st responders.The kids can wait, it’s the Elderly that must be taken care of before the young!

 

There are some that believe this issue may be decided State by State. Others believe it will be a federal mandate. Not guessing how it will turn out, but if the Elderly wins, then cruise lines that predominantly serve those demographics will have customers sooner. If our young win, then 2022 for normal resumption of cruising may well be a reasonable guess depending upon the vaccine.

 

An acquaintance is a school nurse. They’re already talking about doing it 1950 style. Line a Class up and bring them in 1 by 1. Fifteen to twenty seconds each for a shot and to annotate the records. They can get an entire school done quickly when they have the supplies.

Edited October 21, 2020 by pinotlover

[susiesan]

10 hours ago, KirkNC said:

I recently read an article that said it will be well into 2022 before everyone in the US will have been able to receive a vaccine shot.  Remember it will take over 600 million doses just for the US plus I am sure you want people in ports you visit to be vaccinated as well.  A huge logistical challenge.

And it will be much longer for residents of New York and California since those governors stated they will not allow the FDA approved vaccine into their States, they will do their own state sponsored review before approving it for their residents. It could be a very long time before those people get the vaccine. In the meantime the rest of us will be happily cruising and traveling the world.

[pinotlover]

1 hour ago, susiesan said:

And it will be much longer for residents of New York and California since those governors stated they will not allow the FDA approved vaccine into their States, they will do their own state sponsored review before approving it for their residents. It could be a very long time before those people get the vaccine. In the meantime the rest of us will be happily cruising and traveling the world.

Susiean;

 

A lot of articles say a lot of different things. One last week talking about the different vaccines going into final stages. At this point some of the vaccines looked better suited for younger recipients while another was looking better for older ones. The article thought this was great because the ingredients and technologies were coming from different production streams. This meant that availability of the different vaccines were independent and not interdependent. Each sub Group could be getting the vaccine they needed simultaneously from a different group, thus making the overall vaccination process go more quickly.

 

Lots of articles, who knows what to believe?? 🤬

[StanandJim]

14 hours ago, susiesan said:

It could be a very long time before those people get the vaccine. In the meantime the rest of us will be happily cruising and traveling the world.

Why yes, because obviously your interactions with the Virus will depend completely and  entirely on your actions.

Isn't this just the type of thinking that got us here in the first place?

 

 

 

 

[susiesan]

31 minutes ago, StanandJim said:

Why yes, because obviously your interactions with the Virus will depend completely and  entirely on your actions.

Isn't this just the type of thinking that got us here in the first place?

 

 

 

 

So once people are vaccinated they shouldn't travel in your opinion? If you are waiting for the Wuhan virus to be eradicated you will be waiting the rest of your lives, it is not going away. I am traveling now in the US, without a vaccine, and will continue to do so to wherever I can get to. I will get the vaccine as soon as I can to resume my global travels.

[StanandJim]

1 hour ago, susiesan said:

So once people are vaccinated they shouldn't travel in your opinion? If you are waiting for the Wuhan virus to be eradicated you will be waiting the rest of your lives, it is not going away. I am traveling now in the US, without a vaccine, and will continue to do so to wherever I can get to. I will get the vaccine as soon as I can to resume my global travels.

In my opinion, impatient persons rushing through this process have loused everything up for the rest of us over and over again.

Darwinism will sort this out in the long run, but it would be more expedient if people took a breath before rushing back out into the fray immediately when legal restrictions end.

They call patience a virtue for a reason......

 

 

[RJB]

On 10/22/2020 at 12:41 PM, StanandJim said:

In my opinion, impatient persons rushing through this process have loused everything up for the rest of us over and over again.

Darwinism will sort this out in the long run, but it would be more expedient if people took a breath before rushing back out into the fray immediately when legal restrictions end.

They call patience a virtue for a reason......

 

 

Agree 100%  Very well said.

[bartexas]

On 10/20/2020 at 11:18 AM, bebtwice said:

Agree with LHT28 about contacting your TA or Oceania regarding a price reduction. When the Ultimate Sale started, we noticed our fare changed by about $1100/person. Emailed O , figuring it would take several days for them to get back to me. Within 15 minutes I had a new invoice at the lower price for the same cabin, same cruise. No cancelling and re-booking involved.

We did this, except we upgraded from a concierge level veranda to a suite for $100 total. The upgrade got us more credit from the TA, and we currently have award business class tickets booked both ways... we don’t think it’s actually going to happen, BTW.

[bebtwice]

"we don’t think it’s actually going to happen, BTW. "

 

Much As I hate to admit, I'm not sure it will happen either, unless the vaccine becomes available for everyone in time for the cruise and that's doubtful. Different health officials are  setting different time lines for the vaccine  but none are overly optimistic. The plan to distribute the vaccine has begun being developed, but the average person will be so far down the line in getting it.

[ABoatNerd]

The vaccine, there may not be a vaccine.  There has not been a vaccine for the members of this virus family so far. Further, with the rush to produce the vaccine, I and others suspect, the side effects will be minimized and frankly hidden from the public. Under no circumstances do I expect to get the truth from the vaccine manufacturers.

 

I am assuming no vaccine going forward, doing some preventative measures, but moving on living and traveling and ensuring the Wuhan virus does not keep me hiding in my basement.

 

Time is precious and it is slipping away and the older one is, the faster is the loss of time relative to one's remaining objectives.

 

Here in Canada there is now discussion that the Wuhan virus will become endemic, so not going away. 

 

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/will-covid-19-become-endemic-here-s-what-that-means-1.5144140

 

Becoming endemic then creates a very long term challenge for the cruise lines and other activities in closed spaces.

 

The winter is approaching here and if I stay in Toronto, will not see good weather for upwards of 6 months. So I am off to Florida for all of January and most of February in a lovely condo in Ft. Myers and lots of golf. It is called living.

 

 

[ORV]

3 hours ago, ABoatNerd said:

The vaccine, there may not be a vaccine.  There has not been a vaccine for the members of this virus family so far. Further, with the rush to produce the vaccine, I and others suspect, the side effects will be minimized and frankly hidden from the public. Under no circumstances do I expect to get the truth from the vaccine manufacturers.

 

I am assuming no vaccine going forward, doing some preventative measures, but moving on living and traveling and ensuring the Wuhan virus does not keep me hiding in my basement.

 

Time is precious and it is slipping away and the older one is, the faster is the loss of time relative to one's remaining objectives.

 

Here in Canada there is now discussion that the Wuhan virus will become endemic, so not going away. 

 

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/will-covid-19-become-endemic-here-s-what-that-means-1.5144140

 

Becoming endemic then creates a very long term challenge for the cruise lines and other activities in closed spaces.

 

The winter is approaching here and if I stay in Toronto, will not see good weather for upwards of 6 months. So I am off to Florida for all of January and most of February in a lovely condo in Ft. Myers and lots of golf. It is called living.

 

 

Tell us again what your credentials are and why your opinion should carry any weight. 

 

Please stop with the racist references, some of us here don't appreciate it. 

[ORV]

17 hours ago, bartexas said:

We did this, except we upgraded from a concierge level veranda to a suite for $100 total. The upgrade got us more credit from the TA, and we currently have award business class tickets booked both ways... we don’t think it’s actually going to happen, BTW.

That's a good deal on the upgrade, there are 3 or 4 levels of suites above your room, which one are you talking about? Also when is your cruise?

[bartexas]

34 minutes ago, ORV said:

That's a good deal on the upgrade, there are 3 or 4 levels of suites above your room, which one are you talking about? Also when is your cruise?

 

We went from an A2 to a PH3 with the Labor Day promotion for $100. Got one of the PH3s at the back on deck 9.Our trip is late July.

[rallydave]

What nobody has mentioned regarding vaccinations, there are a significant number of people who won't get vaccinated or allow their children to bevaccinated so won't need near 300M or 700M doses for the US  Also the story about lining up the school children an vaccinating them won't happen because of the uproar and aclu.

 

Also don't forget nobody knows or will know for quite awhile how long the vaccinations protect you.  Lots of complications.

Edited October 24, 2020 by rallydave

[Daniel A]

5 hours ago, ABoatNerd said:

The winter is approaching here and if I stay in Toronto, will not see good weather for upwards of 6 months. So I am off to Florida for all of January and most of February in a lovely condo in Ft. Myers and lots of golf. It is called living.

The border between US & Canada remain closed.   Both countries are working in concert and the closure keeps being extended month by month.  I would expect that to continue until there is a vaccine and documentation that a traveler has been vaccinated.  If the vaccine comes out in January or February and requires two doses one month apart, I suspect the border to remain closed until the Spring.

 

[cruisingxpert]

2 hours ago, Daniel A said:

The border between US & Canada remain closed.   Both countries are working in concert and the closure keeps being extended month by month. 

Emphasis on the " Border"   You can't cross the border but you can get on a plane and fly to the States. I have retired friends that wanted to go stay with their daughter and her  3 children to help  with the children.  Their daughter is in the health care profession.  They got a letter from their daughter and her work and drove to the Border but they wouldn't let them cross- they came home, went to the airport and flew to Buffalo via Charlotte, rented a car and are now staying at a condo near their daughter.  It doesn't make a lot of sense that they can fly there- legally- but can't cross the border.  When they return they will have 14 days in quarantine.

Edited October 24, 2020 by cruisingxpert