AstraZeneca Report Success with Vaccine

[ace2542]

11 minutes ago, Smiles1984 said:

There seems to be a slight blurring here on whether the US will approve a certain vaccine for use within its borders and whether they will accept a non-US citizen vaccinated with it for entry into the country. 

 

Authorising a vaccine for use is decided by a number of factors, whether it works, whether it produces side effects, how expensive it is, and whether or not the politician signing the form (or a member of their family/a friend/babysitter etc) makes any money from it.

 

Allowing visitors from another country based on whether they have had a particular vaccine will be decided by whether the vaccine works, and whether there is anything to be lost/gained by antagonising the country in question.

 

 

I personally think rejecting people because of a vaccine they have had if it happens would lead to a massive anti American backlash in a number of European countries and lead to the breakdown of a number of relationships permanently.

[ace2542]

49 minutes ago, orville99 said:

The only place less likely to have valid information on anything than a U.S. politician, is a U.S. social media site. You do realize that Yahoo "news" merely aggregates whatever is floating around on the rest of the social media world. There is absolutely no validity to any claim that the FDA will or will not approve any investigational medication. Data are data, and data will ultimately make the decision, not Yahoo or a political hack.

 

BTW, the U.S. has $1.2Bn (300 million doses) of the AZ vaccine on its order books, so if and when the data show that the vaccine meets the efficacy threshold (>50%) and safety threshold, it will be just as approvable by ths FDA as any other that meets those thresholds.

Would the approval of the single shot JJ vaccine as they say drive a coach and horses through AZ plans for the U.S and put that order on the books in doubt? Vaccines for 150 million 2 shots per person over 4 or 5 weeks is all well and good. But if JJ can do it in a single shot that might give the U.S pause for thought abut what direction to go in. As I am sure it would in UK and elsewhere.

[orville99]

41 minutes ago, ace2542 said:

How is that legal a U.S Citizen CANNOT be denied entry to the country under any circumstances?. They will just have to quarantine for 14 days upon returning.  It will be interesting to see how the Qantas decision affects the American industry. And what about the U.S colleges I can imagine them at least trying to insist upon vaccine to access campus if they can. And if schoolkids have to have the vaccine and as you say then the  parents will probably get it as well.

Any country can limit the entry choices of anyone entering their country if that entry presents a public health hazard. As I said earlier, before smallpox was declared to have been eradicated, the entry requirements into the U.S. were both very strict and very closely enforced. Could I have returned without proof of vaccination, yes, but I would have had to be quarantined (not at home, but wherever the government ordered me to quarantine) for an extended period of time. Governmental leverage is just that - leverage. The government says here are your choices, and we can't make your choice for you, but, choice one - get vaccinated and you're good to go; choice two - don't get vaccinated, but get quarantined when you return (BTW, I love the etymology of quarantine, which is derived from the Portuguese word for forty - quarenta); or choice three, don't travel.

 

[A&L_Ont]

1 hour ago, ace2542 said:

As maybe but in terms of entering the United States I don't think the percentage of vaccinated Americans will matter that much. 

That percentage will matter, because if enough don’t get the vaccine Covid will continue to find the non vaccinated. The non vaccinated will most likely also be the ones not practicing safe protocols during the pandemic and it will continue to spread. The states will still be under the umbrella of covid until the number of vaccinated and those infected get to the percentage needed for herd immunity.

 

These spreaders will continue to hold back the economy and more importantly have the potential to cause risk to those who legitimately can’t take the vaccine. 

 

1 hour ago, livingonthebeach said:

In a recent Gallup poll, only 58% of Americans were willing to take the Covid vaccine.  I believe 70% is needed to reach Hurd immunity, so this is indeed going to be a challenge. 

I agree with you. My comment above reflects upon your thoughts. 

 

1 hour ago, orville99 said:

The only place less likely to have valid information on anything than a U.S. politician, is a U.S. social media site. You do realize that Yahoo "news" merely aggregates whatever is floating around on the rest of the social media world. There is absolutely no validity to any claim that the FDA will or will not approve any investigational medication. Data are data, and data will ultimately make the decision, not Yahoo or a political hack.

 

BTW, the U.S. has $1.2Bn (300 million doses) of the AZ vaccine on its order books, so if and when the data show that the vaccine meets the efficacy threshold (>50%) and safety threshold, it will be just as approvable by ths FDA as any other that meets those thresholds.

@orville99 I heard that 50% number as well yesterday. If the US was willing to accept that rate of success, I feel fairly confident that they would gladly welcome any foreigners vaccinated at the 70% to 94% rate.  No matter the product or administered doses. 
 

IMO these vaccinated guests to the states would be better to the country/economy than the US citizens that have not been vaccinated.  

Edited November 24, 2020 by A&L_Ont

[orville99]

16 minutes ago, ace2542 said:

Would the approval of the single shot JJ vaccine as they say drive a coach and horses through AZ plans for the U.S and put that order on the books in doubt? Vaccines for 150 million 2 shots per person over 4 or 5 weeks is all well and good. But if JJ can do it in a single shot that might give the U.S pause for thought abut what direction to go in. As I am sure it would in UK and elsewhere.

Not in the least. You really have to do a bit of research so you can understand how the approval process works. If your logic held any water, there would never be multiple flu vaccines, or any other competitive entrants into the pharmaceutical marketplace. If governments (any government) ever said "we have a good solution to this ailment, so no one else needs to pursue any more research", the entire pharma industry would collapse, and there would ultimately be no solutions for any future ailment.

 

I realize that your options are dictated by your NHS, but it is a free market over here - we like competition.

[ace2542]

1 minute ago, orville99 said:

Not in the least. You really have to do a bit of research so you can understand how the approval process works. If your logic held any water, there would never be multiple flu vaccines, or any other competitive entrants into the pharmaceutical marketplace. If governments (any government) ever said "we have a good solution to this ailment, so no one else needs to pursue any more research", the entire pharma industry would collapse, and there would ultimately be no solutions for any future ailment.

 

I realize that your options are dictated by your NHS, but it is a free market over here - we like competition.

And just because they have ordered these hundreds of millions of doses doesn't mean they have to stand by them if different options come along. And wouldn't a single shot vaccine of 90% power out compete a dual shot vaccine even of 95% let alone 90%? The entry of single shot vaccine if it gets there and can be manufactured effectively will greatly change the face of this and the timeline in doing it and they know it. 

 

There are a lot of vaccines floating around many of them very effective but some of them will be left without chairs when the music stops as the old saying goes. Some  businesses and shareholders will make a lot of money in this and some will lose a lot.

[livingonthebeach]

24 minutes ago, A&L_Ont said:

I agree with you. My comment above reflects upon your thoughts. 

 

I was just on the WHO site, and learned that different diseases have different percentages of people who need to have antibodies in order to achieve herd immunity. They state that "herd immunity against measles requires about 95% of a population to be vaccinated. The remaining 5% will be protected by the fact that measles will not spread among those who are vaccinated. For polio, the threshold is about 80%."I guess if the Covid threshold is only 70%, we'll get there faster than other diseases in the past. 

[A&L_Ont]

13 minutes ago, ace2542 said:

And just because they have ordered these hundreds of millions of doses doesn't mean they have to stand by them if different options come along.

 

These preordered doses have also been prepaid for.  If a country chooses not to use them that is their decision. They are done this way because a country does not want to be last at the end of the line, to order what has been deemed to be successful. They want to be first, to get things back to normal as quick as possible.

 

Canada for example has preordered from more than two producers and dose numbers well surpassing our country's population. Which ones will be administered to those wanting it, who knows.  I am just happy to know that my tax dollars have provided options to which so far appear to be successful.

 

I'd rather our nation spend extra to have a vaccine next year VS being last in line today, paying a higher price for a vaccine was just proven successful, and waiting longer to start the vaccination process. Sometimes spending more upfront is cheaper than the real/true cost later on.

Edited November 24, 2020 by A&L_Ont

[livingonthebeach]

15 minutes ago, ace2542 said:

And just because they have ordered these hundreds of millions of doses doesn't mean they have to stand by them if different options come along. And wouldn't a single shot vaccine of 90% power out compete a dual shot vaccine even of 95% let alone 90%? The entry of single shot vaccine if it gets there and can be manufactured effectively will greatly change the face of this and the timeline in doing it and they know it. 

 

There are a lot of vaccines floating around many of them very effective but some of them will be left without chairs when the music stops as the old saying goes. Some  businesses and shareholders will make a lot of money in this and some will lose a lot.

 

I don't know about the UK but here in the US, there are multiple vaccines for the diseases vaccines are available for.  I believe there is room in the world marketplace for several CV-19 vaccines as the world demand will be pretty high, and no reason to think only a few will make money. Supply, demand, pricing, delivery time and storage requirements will probably determine which country orders which vaccine.  Efficacy will of course be important but perhaps not the only determinate.    

 

From the CDC site:

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/vaccines-list.html

[orville99]

1 hour ago, ace2542 said:

And just because they have ordered these hundreds of millions of doses doesn't mean they have to stand by them if different options come along. And wouldn't a single shot vaccine of 90% power out compete a dual shot vaccine even of 95% let alone 90%? The entry of single shot vaccine if it gets there and can be manufactured effectively will greatly change the face of this and the timeline in doing it and they know it. 

 

There are a lot of vaccines floating around many of them very effective but some of them will be left without chairs when the music stops as the old saying goes. Some  businesses and shareholders will make a lot of money in this and some will lose a lot.

Any vaccine that meets the safety and efficacy benchmark set by the EMA and the FDA will be approved. No single vaccine can be produced in the quantity or at the speed necessary to vaccinate 8+ billion people world-wide, let alone the 340 million in the U.S. or the 70 million in the U.K. No approval agency with any ethical backbone would ever cherry-pick the winners and losers, because that would mean making the choice of who lives and who dies. If that behavior were even remotely possible, there would never have been a Sabin vaccine for Polio, or a Tamiflu for influenza. Whether a particular country chooses to utilize a particular vaccine, however, is somewhat dependent on what that country can afford, the demographics of the population, the level of distribution capability available, and the level of virus spread. Unfortunately, if your healthcare system's history is any judge, as soon as the AZ vaccine is approved, that will be the only choice available through your NHS. You will still be able to purchase one of the other vaccines from the private market, but the NHS will only cover the $4 jab.

[ace2542]

3 hours ago, A&L_Ont said:

That percentage will matter, because if enough don’t get the vaccine Covid will continue to find the non vaccinated. The non vaccinated will most likely also be the ones not practicing safe protocols during the pandemic and it will continue to spread. The states will still be under the umbrella of covid until the number of vaccinated and those infected get to the percentage needed for herd immunity.

 

These spreaders will continue to hold back the economy and more importantly have the potential to cause risk to those who legitimately can’t take the vaccine. 

 

I agree with you. My comment above reflects upon your thoughts. 

 

@orville99 I heard that 50% number as well yesterday. If the US was willing to accept that rate of success, I feel fairly confident that they would gladly welcome any foreigners vaccinated at the 70% to 94% rate.  No matter the product or administered doses. 
 

IMO these vaccinated guests to the states would be better to the country/economy than the US citizens that have not been vaccinated.  

But the so called herd immunity is a mix of both the vaccinated and unvaccinated but previously infected correct? Coming together in immunity to create a combined immunity level in the population at a set percentage. And the U.S is already on the way to that level we all are. You are not starting from a zero immunity. The vaccine will build on and increase what is already there.

[onlyslightlymad]

14 minutes ago, ace2542 said:

But the so called herd immunity is a mix of both the vaccinated and unvaccinated but previously infected correct? Coming together in immunity to create a combined immunity level in the population at a set percentage. And the U.S is already on the way to that level we all are. You are not starting from a zero immunity. The vaccine will build on and increase what is already there.

There are still a lot of unanswered questions about the level of immunity held by people who have been unwell.  How long does it last?  Is it different for people who have had symptoms vs people who haven't?  Here's an interesting article https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52446965

[A&L_Ont]

56 minutes ago, ace2542 said:

But the so called herd immunity is a mix of both the vaccinated and unvaccinated but previously infected correct? Coming together in immunity to create a combined immunity level in the population at a set percentage. And the U.S is already on the way to that level we all are. You are not starting from a zero immunity. The vaccine will build on and increase what is already there.

That’s exactly what I have been saying, it is a combination of both. If there are not enough vaccinated people to be added to the total of those who have had Covid it will continue to live on until that number is reached. 
 

The reported herd immunity for Covid is 70%.  Yes, the US have had many cases but no where never that percentage.  Right now only 4% of the US has had it  They have another 66% of the population to go to reach 70% if going by herd immunity alone. If only 50% of the population chooses to get vaccinated, they still have a way to go to have a total of 70%.  Only time will tell how they reach the magical number. 
 

That is why I have been trying to express to you, that IMO the US will be happy to let anyone in from other countries who has been vaccinated.  With any successful vaccination.

Edited November 24, 2020 by A&L_Ont

[Tree_skier]

1 minute ago, A&L_Ont said:

Right now only 4% of the US has had it

I think the percentage is much higher than that.  There are so many untested asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic that were never tested.  Also, the virus had been in the US a lot longer than originally thought and many early cases went undetected.  I think that we are a lot closer to herd amenity than many think.  50% immunization will push us well beyond the threshold necessary to see case numbers plummet.  

[Baron Barracuda]

Several news sources report that all AstraZeneca trial candidates not receiving placebo were supposed to get two full doses of vaccine. However a dosing mistake in Great Britain caused many to be initially given only a half dose.  AZN scientists called this a serendipitous error as the 90% success rate for the lower dose far exceeded the 62% success rate of the intended one.

[ipeeinthepool]

4 hours ago, A&L_Ont said:

Canada for example has preordered from more than two producers and dose numbers well surpassing our country's population. Which ones will be administered to those wanting it, who knows.  I am just happy to know that my tax dollars have provided options to which so far appear to be successful.

 

Has Canada rolled out a plan how they will vaccinate the population?   Who will do it and where will it be done?  Have you been involved in any discussions on how nursing homes will vaccinate their residents?

[A&L_Ont]

38 minutes ago, Tree_skier said:

I think the percentage is much higher than that.  There are so many untested asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic that were never tested.  Also, the virus had been in the US a lot longer than originally thought and many early cases went undetected.  I think that we are a lot closer to herd amenity than many think.  50% immunization will push us well beyond the threshold necessary to see case numbers plummet.  

I went by the case numbers on Worldometers.
 

If indeed the numbers are higher like you propose that is only for the better.  I am not so sure about “closer than we think” as the percentage would have to be much higher. If indeed they are, then it is a “good situation” considering it isn’t a positive thing to think about.  
 

The numbers will plummet with 50% vaccinated but it sure won’t disappear overnight.  

Edited November 24, 2020 by A&L_Ont

[ace2542]

59 minutes ago, A&L_Ont said:

That’s exactly what I have been saying, it is a combination of both. If there are not enough vaccinated people to be added to the total of those who have had Covid it will continue to live on until that number is reached. 
 

The reported herd immunity for Covid is 70%.  Yes, the US have had many cases but no where never that percentage.  Right now only 4% of the US has had it  They have another 66% of the population to go to reach 70% if going by herd immunity alone. If only 50% of the population chooses to get vaccinated, they still have a way to go to have a total of 70%.  Only time will tell how they reach the magical number. 
 

That is why I have been trying to express to you, that IMO the US will be happy to let anyone in from other countries who has been vaccinated.  With any successful vaccination.

The true case count must be much higher than 12 million. There is no way you have had 9x the cases we have in a country 40x as big with 5x the population with these in every state and states recording case counts and 3 virus peaks. It stands to reason your cases are 5x higher at least. So you are closer to 60 million. So you are 20% of called herd immunity already.

[A&L_Ont]

18 minutes ago, ipeeinthepool said:

Has Canada rolled out a plan how they will vaccinate the population?   Who will do it and where will it be done?  Have you been involved in any discussions on how nursing homes will vaccinate their residents?

The province of Ontario has just announced Monday a deployment team for the roll out in Ontario. I have no details as of now, not to mention how the Federal Government is working with the provinces. Once a vaccine e becomes available we will be notified very quickly. 
 

My suspicion would be long term care residents and facility staff Eli g some of the first if not the first, followed by essential workers, hospital staff, health care workers, aged and then immune compromised.  After that it will roll out to the general public but I have no idea how that will be administered.
 

The vaccine and it’s storage temperatures will make it “interesting” for long term care not to mention everyone else. Less so for the population that have greater mobility in the community.  
 

The Ministry of Health will dictate the order of operation. I do feel 100% confident that residents of LTC will receive their vaccinations at their home facilities.  Also that staff who work there will be given the option. I suspect that it will be a travelling team organized by the local Health Units doing this.  Really no different than how the flu vaccine is done today.

 

I wish I knew more but right now I have no true information. Just basing this on past experiences.

[ipeeinthepool]

7 minutes ago, A&L_Ont said:

The province of Ontario has just announced Monday a deployment team for the roll out in Ontario. I have no details as of now, not to mention how the Federal Government is working with the provinces. Once a vaccine e becomes available we will be notified very quickly. 
 

My suspicion would be long term care residents and facility staff Eli g some of the first if not the first, followed by essential workers, hospital staff, health care workers, aged and then immune compromised.  After that it will roll out to the general public but I have no idea how that will be administered.
 

The vaccine and it’s storage temperatures will make it “interesting” for long term care not to mention everyone else. Less so for the population that have greater mobility in the community.  
 

The Ministry of Health will dictate the order of operation. I do feel 100% confident that residents of LTC will receive their vaccinations at their home facilities.  Also that staff who work there will be given the option. I suspect that it will be a travelling team organized by the local Health Units doing this.  Really no different than how the flu vaccine is done today.

 

I wish I knew more but right now I have no true information. Just basing this on past experiences.

 

Thanks for the info.  It will be interesting to see how different countries handle this difficult job.

[ace2542]

1 hour ago, Tree_skier said:

I think the percentage is much higher than that.  There are so many untested asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic that were never tested.  Also, the virus had been in the US a lot longer than originally thought and many early cases went undetected.  I think that we are a lot closer to herd amenity than many think.  50% immunization will push us well beyond the threshold necessary to see case numbers plummet.  

The way it is going in America they won't even need the vaccine. Of course they will use it. But you wait and see the cases will start to plummet in Feb or March but will rise till January and rise quickly.

[A&L_Ont]

10 minutes ago, ace2542 said:

The true case count must be much higher than 12 million. There is no way you have had 9x the cases we have in a country 40x as big with 5x the population with these in every state and states recording case counts and 3 virus peaks. It stands to reason your cases are 5x higher at least. So you are closer to 60 million. So you are 20% of called herd immunity already.

I just went by the numbers reported in Worldometers for the US and divided it by their population.  Going with 60 million and a population of 328,240,000 that’s 18%, which is not far from your 20%.  
 

Whatever number we choose today, it will be higher by the time a vaccine is widely available.  Totalling the numbers of the vaccinated and those already infected hopefully be the right combination of the keep Covid at bay.  In turn it disappears off into the sunset.  
 

I actually would like to go on a cruise instead of cancelling them. 

 

 

[ace2542]

6 minutes ago, A&L_Ont said:

I just went by the numbers reported in Worldometers for the US and divided it by their population.  Going with 60 million and a population of 328,240,000 that’s 18%, which is not far from your 20%.  
 

Whatever number we choose today, it will be higher by the time a vaccine is widely available.  Totalling the numbers of the vaccinated and those already infected hopefully be the right combination of the keep Covid at bay.  In turn it disappears off into the sunset.  
 

I actually would like to go on a cruise instead of cancelling them. 

 

 

It will always be around it just won't be a big thing anymore because we will always 5 steps ahead of it.

[A&L_Ont]

4 minutes ago, ace2542 said:

It will always be around it just won't be a big thing anymore because we will always 5 steps ahead of it.

That’s my hope as well. 

[Ourusualbeach]

41 minutes ago, ipeeinthepool said:

will be interesting to see how different countries handle this difficult job.

You could probably take it a step further down to states and provinces. I don’t think you will get an entire country following the exact same procedure .