When ships are not at 100% capacity

[iria64]

I do not think I have seen this discussed.

Whenever sailing resumes it seems that ships will not be sailing at 100% capacity but somewhere in the 50% - 60% or so range.

As far as I know, no cruise line has come out and said how they plan to handle this if a ship is already booked over these numbers.

If a ship is already booked to 80% they are going to have to come up with a way to get that number down.

I would assume it would be done similar to airlines where they first ask for volunteers but if they are still over they would need to start bumping people involuntarily.

 

[tallnthensome]

It’s been discussed many times but nobody knows . 

[jfunk138]

I think there is way too much optimism about sailing on reduced capacity ships.  With Delta's announcement yesterday, all airlines have abandoned empty middle seats.  Cruiselines will be similar.  It costs far too much to transport empty cabins all over the planet, unless they can charge occupied cabins a premium.

[joeyancho]

I think the last booked,  first bumped is the only fair way. 

[iria64]

10 minutes ago, joeyancho said:

I think the last booked,  first bumped is the only fair way. 

It sounds fair but there are things to consider...

 - Many of those that are last booked on the ship may have been a rebook from a previously cancelled cruise.

 - If it is not a rebook from a cancelled cruise but a newer booking it may be at a higher price point than someone who booked earlier.  If you are Carnival, which passenger do you cancel?

 

From a strictly monetary side I think the order would be...

 - Volunteers would be 1st

 - Inside cabins as these are the cheapest

 - If the 1st two options do not lower occupancy enough then next would be Ocean View.

 

Anyway, it is all speculation until cruising actually resumes.

[firefly333]

1 minute ago, iria64 said:

It sounds fair but there are things to consider...

 - Many of those that are last booked on the ship may have been a rebook from a previously cancelled cruise.

 - If it is not a rebook from a cancelled cruise but a newer booking it may be at a higher price point than someone who booked earlier.  If you are Carnival, which passenger do you cancel?

 

From a strictly monetary side I think the order would be...

 - Volunteers would be 1st

 - Inside cabins as these are the cheapest

 - If the 1st two options do not lower occupancy enough then next would be Ocean View.

 

Anyway, it is all speculation until cruising actually resumes.

I think he was joking. Imo the cruiselines already know and are only booking to that capacity. Celebrity this summer announced capacity, I forget 40 to 60? And not selling insides and ovs. That's a pretty wide range, so of it hits 60, they close off, or if people cancel, they reopen. 

 

I'm pretty sure by now the cruiselines have set capacity. I agree with the above, the demand at first wouldnt be as high until people on the sidelines see how it goes, if masks required etc. I also wouldnt be surprised once protocols come out if some cancel once the rules are known.

[D C]

There might not be that many that need to be bumped.

The anti-vaxx crowd won't be sailing.  That's ~30%?

There will be others that simply take the "too soon, I'll wait" approach.

If that doesn't get there, they might have to do bumps like airlines do.  Offer future cruise credit (probably OBC which costs them less) in exchange for cancelling. 

[Earthworm Jim]

I don't think there will be any bumping process. If these cruises are happening when the Conditional Sailing Order in effect and Covid is still a concern, it's likely the itineraries will require changing, and possibly changes in home port or cruise length.

 

From the cruise lines point of view, the easiest thing would be to cancel the entire cruise. Then open up a new cruise with the new itinerary and start from scratch. Once the Conditional Sailing Order expires and cruises return to normal, then they'll resume honoring existing reservations.

Edited April 6, 2021 by Earthworm Jim

[firefly333]

13 minutes ago, Earthworm Jim said:

I don't think there will be any bumping process. If these cruises are happening when the Conditional Sailing Order in effect and Covid is still a concern, it's likely the itineraries will require changing, and possibly changes in home port or cruise length.

 

From the cruise lines point of view, the easiest thing would be to cancel the entire cruise. Then open up a new cruise with the new itinerary and start from scratch. Once the Conditional Sailing Order expires and cruises return to normal, then they'll resume honoring existing reservations.

Lol I think the easiest thing to do would be just change the ports as needed. Keep existing booking, and if some cancel just deal with those, rather than deal with everyone booked. ..imo.

 

Key west if not overturned, poof those stops. I assume some carnival ships stop there? ..there are bound to be some port changes. Just restart please. I'm tired of rebooking.

[Earthworm Jim]

2 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

Lol I think the easiest thing to do would be just change the ports as needed. Keep existing booking, and if some cancel just deal with those, rather than deal with everyone booked. ..imo.

 

Key west if not overturned, poof those stops. I assume some carnival ships stop there? ..there are bound to be some port changes. Just restart please. I'm tired of rebooking.

 

Also keep in mind when these first cruises actually happen they'll likely go for a premium price due to pent up demand, and cancelling the cruise would allow them to rebook passengers at higher prices as well.

[pc_load_letter]

I think it will be like when a flight is overbook....I predict people will be called and offered nice "packages" to rebook at a later date, i.e. free cruise or heavily discounted cruise at a later date.

[firefly333]

3 minutes ago, Earthworm Jim said:

 

Also keep in mind when these first cruises actually happen they'll likely go for a premium price due to pent up demand, and cancelling the cruise would allow them to rebook passengers at higher prices as well.

A horse of a different color. Lol we were talking about the easiest thing. If they outright cancelled cruises just because of a port change, just to get more money, people will be up in arms. 

[Earthworm Jim]

9 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

A horse of a different color. Lol we were talking about the easiest thing. If they outright cancelled cruises just because of a port change, just to get more money, people will be up in arms. 

 

Well, just on the easiest basis, canceling is easiest rather than fighting with everyone on the bumping, bribing them to move to another sailing, telling the ones staying they have to change cabin based on what cabins they want to keep empty. Just cancel it and put the new sailing on the website like every other sailing, done. By now the refund process is surely automated. And make more money in the process.

 

The actual cruise may have to change enough that they couldn't plausibly say it's the same cruise as the people had booked anyway.

[BlerkOne]

Pre-covid cruises could been verbooked and sometimes were. Some of the ways to free a cabin include offering bribes to change cabins (if just a category was overbooked) to offering bribes to switch to a different sailing. Kind of like airlines do, but not on the scale that airlines do.

[firefly333]

24 minutes ago, Earthworm Jim said:

 

Well, just on the easiest basis, canceling is easiest rather than fighting with everyone on the bumping, bribing them to move to another sailing, telling the ones staying they have to change cabin based on what cabins they want to keep empty. Just cancel it and put the new sailing on the website like every other sailing, done. By now the refund process is surely automated. And make more money in the process.

 

The actual cruise may have to change enough that they couldn't plausibly say it's the same cruise as the people had booked anyway.

Well I would assume the opposite, there would be no bumping. That attrition would take care of keeping capacity low. Not everyone will want to be on early cruises or first to resume. Some will cancel if masks required, etc. A port is changed, someone else will ask to cancel for this.

 

I'd bet no bumping required. 

[BoozinCroozin]

Bumping passengers from booked cruises will be a nightmare for them. The method done is going to have to be done through volunteers with incentives. The only method I could see them doing that would be "fair" (from a publicly traded entity perspective only) is people with the lowest fare paid. Even then, if they have to separate rooms, how do you handle moving people from a balcony to an OV or interior room? There would have to be massive incentives to do that to people. This is how I would be managing it...

1. Outline the rules that will be used to determine which reservations are in the "bump zone"
2. Ask for volunteers willing to reschedule with a predefined incentive: extra FCC, equivalent cabin on similar class ship in the future with OBC, etc.
3. Reassess where they stand after the volunteer period is over. Then inform the people in the "bump zone" that XX number of cabins are still needed. The voluntary reschedule is extended for 2 more weeks. After that, the criteria outlined previously will be used to determine who gets bumped without any additional benefit.

The bigger question is how do they manage forcing someone to downgrade from a Suite or Balcony to an OV or Interior room just to be able to sail? I would not be willing to accept paying $3,300 for my balcony to be offered an Interior room whose price has risen so much it is $3,200. No way they can offer only $100 in compensation for that.

 

Since no one knows, all this is speculation. The other issue is there are contacts in place between the customer and the cruise line. 

[bamaone]

Our next sail date is 9/10/22. With the vaccine and herd immunity, everything will be back to pre-covid sailing at that time. End of worries. (Unless we get a new bat/lab virus)

[asalligo]

6 hours ago, jfunk138 said:

I think there is way too much optimism about sailing on reduced capacity ships.  With Delta's announcement yesterday, all airlines have abandoned empty middle seats.  Cruiselines will be similar.  It costs far too much to transport empty cabins all over the planet, unless they can charge occupied cabins a premium.

I think this is spot on, reduced capacity will not last long. 

[Mary229]

The NCL plan they presented to the CDC states that they wish to start at 60% and increase 20% every 30 days with full capacity by the fall.   That pretty much tells me what the lines want to do

[sanger727]

When cruise lines have been asked about this before the answer has generally fallen into the idea that when they do restart there will be many restrictions. So, by allowing people to cancel without penalty they think that the problem will take care of it itself. I tend to agree with that. If a cruise is 80% booked and they announce that you can either 1. cruise with masks, and mandatory vaccines, and mandatory shore excursions, and everything has to be reserved in advance OR 2. you can cancel without a penalty or move your booking to a later sailing - that should be enough to get them down to 60% through voluntary cancellations. 

[BlerkOne]

1 hour ago, BoozinCroozin said:

Bumping passengers from booked cruises will be a nightmare for them. The method done is going to have to be done through volunteers with incentives. The only method I could see them doing that would be "fair" (from a publicly traded entity perspective only) is people with the lowest fare paid. Even then, if they have to separate rooms, how do you handle moving people from a balcony to an OV or interior room? There would have to be massive incentives to do that to people. This is how I would be managing it...

1. Outline the rules that will be used to determine which reservations are in the "bump zone"
2. Ask for volunteers willing to reschedule with a predefined incentive: extra FCC, equivalent cabin on similar class ship in the future with OBC, etc.
3. Reassess where they stand after the volunteer period is over. Then inform the people in the "bump zone" that XX number of cabins are still needed. The voluntary reschedule is extended for 2 more weeks. After that, the criteria outlined previously will be used to determine who gets bumped without any additional benefit.

The bigger question is how do they manage forcing someone to downgrade from a Suite or Balcony to an OV or Interior room just to be able to sail? I would not be willing to accept paying $3,300 for my balcony to be offered an Interior room whose price has risen so much it is $3,200. No way they can offer only $100 in compensation for that.

 

Since no one knows, all this is speculation. The other issue is there are contacts in place between the customer and the cruise line. 

 

Google Princess Moveover offer.

[TomCruise48]

Bumping would indeed create a nightmare for the cruise lines.  Many guests sail as part of a group with group members booking cabins ranging from inside to suites.  Are you going to bump part of a group?   I try to sail every year with my brothers and sisters and their spouses.  We book at different times and in different category cabins.  Are they going to bump only part of a family?

 

What about a family who books a balcony for the parents and an inside cabin across the hall for the children?  Are they going to bump the children, but not the parents?

 

After the United Airlines fiasco, bumping has become a bad word, and the cruise lines probably don't want anything to do with it.

[BoozinCroozin]

12 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

 

Google Princess Moveover offer.

That's all well and good when a cruise is booked at 110%. They only see a 10% issue. When a cruise is booked at 110% and they need to reduce to 50-60%, you are not going to see this type of offer. The cruise lines are going to be faced with having to cover people for the following when they bump them without consent:

1. Cost of airline flights
2. Cost of pre/post cruise hotels that can't be canceled
3. Immediate refunds of fares instead of the 45-90 day waits
4. Processing fees from TA's
5. Cost of trip insurance
6. Whatever laws are within the cruise contract as well

This will be far more costly to the cruise industry. I am not reading the passenger contract, but it will come down to contract law and saving face. I expect many of the cases to be non-voluntary which will bring into question the criteria used and the compensation offered. As a family, we only have ~7 weeks out of the year we can vacation because of school and being a teacher. What is the arbitration process if you disagree with the compensation being offered? The cost for the cruise lines to manage cases in small claims courts per passenger could become massive. I know in my state that a company representative is required to be present and usually no lawyers. Imagine a cruise line telling a judge that they offered (for example) a $3,000 fare refund and an extra $500 when the cruise passenger clearly shows the judge the $3,000 cruise fare, $200 hotel room, $300 trip insurance, $1,200 in flights, $25 processing fee, and all the time lost seeking fair compensation. The judge will rule in favor of the plaintiff based on the contract. There is nothing that I have seen in the contract about bumping passengers from the ship because they are over capacity.

 

There was a vlog somewhere that said it may be best for the cruise lines to cancel the sailings and completely rebook them with the lowered capacity. I can see that being the case but there would be legal issues with that as well: cancel a cruise to dump all passengers, reinstate the ship for cruising, and raising the prices drastically. I can't see them doing this because that would turn to a Class Action lawsuit. In the end, nothing will be fair if people are involuntarily booted.

[pe4all]

I would hope that the cruises that were cancelled and rebooked by CCL (and other lines) for the next year or so would have been booked under "reduced capacity" numbers.  The cruise lines must have foreseen what was coming down the road after the months and months of cancellations they had to undergo.  It would have been easier to rebook under reduced capacity and then add passengers as limitations were relaxed, than cut cabins/bump passengers already booked. While no one could see how covid would play out,  I am sure they had contingency plans for many scenarios.

[iria64]

Here is why I think the cruise lines are still booking ships as if they would sail at full capacity.

- The companies need/want as much cash on hand as they can get.

- As final payment comes due a lot of people will cancel for various reasons.

- If the ship is still over capacity the company will then offer the opportunity to rebook at a later date with incentives.

- Very few people, if any, would then need to be bumped from a sailing.

 

I do have a question for those that have had to rebook a cancelled cruise.  Were you able to rebook at the rate on your original booking or did you have to book at the current rate for the new sailing selected?