EU to Reopen to Vaccinated Travelers by the weekend

[Hlitner]

The topic is huge for travelers and potentially huge for cruisers.  The EU is apparently going to adopt a new policy this Friday 5/21 that will allow fully vaccinated travelers (only with Astra-Zeneca, Pfizer, Moderna and J&J) to enter any of the 27 EU countries without testing or quarantine.   The EU commissioners seem to have settled on 70 cases per 100,000 as a guideline to which countries are green lighted.  Consider that the US now has fewer then 35 per 100,000.  What does this mean?  I think you will quickly (by the end of this week) hear that all the major airlines are going to rapidly increase flights between the USA and Europe.  I cannot find any reliable information as to whether this will mean that Americans will be free to take European river and ocean cruises this summer, but we can speculate this will likely happen within the next few weeks (if not sooner).    But we do again face and issue with our "wonderful" CDC who again is behind the curve (the agency seems like follower rather than leaders).  Will the CDC immediately reciprocate and allow fully vaccinated Europeans to have full access to the USA?  Will the CDC continue to require Anitgen testing for fully vaccinated folks who are allowed to fly to the USA?  Who knows?  One can hope that the CDC will finally open up the USA to fully vaccinated travelers (similar to what is happening in the EU).

 

As to cruising, what a mixed bag.  We face a situation where there will likely be open travel between the EU and the USA, but no traveler will be able to take a cruise that involves US Ports.  The CDC continues to slow walk getting cruises restarted from the USA but does feed the industry with drips and drops of hope.  While gradually walking back some of their imposed restrictions, the CDC has yet to approve a single cruise and has not officially given a time line when they may do so.

 

Just one "heads up" that folks should check the current situation wherever they plan to travel.  So, for example, even if you can fly to Paris you might find that most of Paris is still shut down because of COVID.

 

Hank

[Zach1213]

36 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

I think you will quickly (by the end of this week) hear that all the major airlines are going to rapidly increase flights between the USA and Europe.

 

I'll chime in only on this part because my job involves aircraft and specifically aircraft being certified, re-certified, inspected, maintained, converted, etc. 

 

There's going to be a bit of a limit as to how quickly airlines can ramp up flights. Many of them have had aircraft sitting in storage for a year now. Yes, a lot of them have been brought back, but there's still a lot out there sitting in deserts in Arizona or Spain. They can't just immediately (I know you didn't use that word) turn them on and fly them to Heathrow to load up with passengers. Plus, many airline crews are still furloughed and that'll take a bit of time to get everyone back (though not nearly as long as the physical aircraft).

 

I'm not saying this is going to be a massively drawn out issue, but it's going to take a bit more time than people may realize. 

[Hlitner]

1 hour ago, Zach1213 said:

 

I'll chime in only on this part because my job involves aircraft and specifically aircraft being certified, re-certified, inspected, maintained, converted, etc. 

 

There's going to be a bit of a limit as to how quickly airlines can ramp up flights. Many of them have had aircraft sitting in storage for a year now. Yes, a lot of them have been brought back, but there's still a lot out there sitting in deserts in Arizona or Spain. They can't just immediately (I know you didn't use that word) turn them on and fly them to Heathrow to load up with passengers. Plus, many airline crews are still furloughed and that'll take a bit of time to get everyone back (though not nearly as long as the physical aircraft).

 

I'm not saying this is going to be a massively drawn out issue, but it's going to take a bit more time than people may realize. 

Lots of interesting things happening with the airlines (folks with an interest should read the "pointsguy")  When we recently booked Turkish Airlines we were surprised to see that are using a 777 (with lay flat Business Class) on the short run (about a 1 hour flight) between Istanbul and Athens!  Go figure. The airlines have already been spooling up in the past few weeks (in anticipation) and I suspect there will be a lot of additional International flights added by late June.  For we aviation enthusiasts it will be interesting to see if some of the top International carriers such as Emirates decide to bring more really large aircraft (i.e. A380s and 777s) back online after previously announcing they were retiring some of these aircraft.    I also noticed, yesterday, that La Compagnie is restarting flights between EWR and France.  While a very small niche airline (popular with folks in the know) they are symbolic.  And yesterday the Greek Minister of Tourism made a statement that Greece now has more direct flights between Greece and the USA then ever in history.  

 

We predicted about a month ago that the reopening of Greece (which officially happened last week) would likely cause the other EU countries to reconsider their policies.  But I never envisioned that the entire EU would simply open up this quickly.   Greece thought all this through and had a comprehensive plan including vaccinating everyone on the islands, raising curfews, reopening museums/ruins, and reopening restaurants.  The EU is jumping into the fray so fast that they have not had time to coordinate all their planning about reopening.  That is why I have suggested that anyone who decides to rush off to Europe carefully review the local restrictions at their designation.  You can be sure that there are lots of meetings (among top officials) throughout Europe trying to find their way through a reopening while still dealing with COVID mitigation.  

 

I think the momentum of reopening is finally starting to overwhelm the "doubters."  Folks want to travel, restaurants want to make money, museums want to open, and ships want to sail.  I think this is all going to happen much faster then any of thought was possible even a week ago.

 

Hank

[Zach1213]

6 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

Lots of interesting things happening with the airlines (folks with an interest should read the "pointsguy")  When we recently booked Turkish Airlines we were surprised to see that are using a 777 (with lay flat Business Class) on the short run (about a 1 hour flight) between Istanbul and Athens!  Go figure.

 

It has been fun to see some of the routes airlines are using big planes on to keep their pilots and aircraft moving as much as possible. Heck, the other day I was in San Diego and saw Delta doing a redeye A330 to Detroit...didn't expect that one. 

[Suzanne123]

Maybe they were available previously, but for the first time I was able to get lie-flat seats on Delta from ATL to ANC and American from ANC to ORD this July.

[cruisemom42]

3 hours ago, Hlitner said:

But we do again face and issue with our "wonderful" CDC who again is behind the curve (the agency seems like follower rather than leaders). 

 

I can't speak for everyone of course, but for myself I'd rather the agency in charge of safeguarding our public health be a little conservative, e.g., behind the curve rather than being first out of the chute.

 

Anyone recall the pitfalls associated with announcing "Mission Accomplished!" too soon?  

[CruiserBruce]

Plus a number of airlines have kept some of their longer range aircraft busy with long haul cargo,  so a few less were parked in the desert, and pilots were kept active. 

 

But still a lot of parked aircraft to spool up.

[SelectSys]

It certainly has me thinking for a Fall trip to Spain.

 

Seems like American Airlines is getting ready for the return of tourism this summer based on the website splash page.

 

1 hour ago, Hlitner said:

The EU is jumping into the fray so fast that they have not had time to coordinate all their planning about reopening. 

Yes, too much pressure from some member states to get back in the game.  The EU needs to maintain the appearance of coordination across the community.   

 

1 hour ago, Hlitner said:

I think the momentum of reopening is finally starting to overwhelm the "doubters."  Folks want to travel, restaurants want to make money, museums want to open, and ships want to sail.  I think this is all going to happen much faster then any of thought was possible even a week

 The doubters are free to stay home.  I am sure these openings are going to create angst in some doubters as they want travel but feel obliged to stick to their masked up, locked down lives in order to follow the real science.

 

3 hours ago, Hlitner said:

only with Astra-Zeneca, Pfizer, Moderna and J&J

Hmm - I have wondered if the Chinese vaccines would be considered effective in the 1st world.  I guess we know have our answer - at least for now.

 

Edited May 19, 2021 by SelectSys

[Hlitner]

2 hours ago, SelectSys said:

It certainly has me thinking for a Fall trip to Spain.

 

Seems like American Airlines is getting ready for the return of tourism this summer based on the website splash page.

 

Yes, too much pressure from some member states to get back in the game.  The EU needs to maintain the appearance of coordination across the community.   

 

 The doubters are free to stay home.  I am sure these openings are going to create angst in some doubters as they want travel but feel obliged to stick to their masked up, locked down lives in order to follow the real science.

 

Hmm - I have wondered if the Chinese vaccines would be considered effective in the 1st world.  I guess we know have our answer - at least for now.

 

I was a little surprised at what they did in Brussels.  But, for now, they are only accepting the vaccines that have been approved by the EU which DOES NOT include the Sinovac or Russian vaccine.  Go figure.  One might wonder how fast they will capitulate when China and Russia complain.

 

Hank

[navybankerteacher]

This coming Memorial Day weekend will see our first flight (domestic) since November 2019 (our last travel of any sort was QM2 to the Caribbean from Brooklyn - reachable by car) it will be interesting to see how LGA will handle what is likely to be a sudden surge.

[Zach1213]

20 hours ago, CruiserBruce said:

Plus a number of airlines have kept some of their longer range aircraft busy with long haul cargo,  so a few less were parked in the desert, and pilots were kept active. 

 

But still a lot of parked aircraft to spool up.

 

I'm friends on social media with a British Airways pilot I met a few years back, and he has not flown a single passenger since March 2020...but has been flying 2x roundtrips each month on the 772/773. All cargo...in the early days, getting PPE from China, it was even cargo IN the cabin (in addition to underneath). I think he said he gets his first passenger flight next week. 

[CruiserBruce]

2 minutes ago, Zach1213 said:

 

I'm friends on social media with a British Airways pilot I met a few years back, and he has not flown a single passenger since March 2020...but has been flying 2x roundtrips each month on the 772/773. All cargo...in the early days, getting PPE from China, it was even cargo IN the cabin (in addition to underneath). I think he said he gets his first passenger flight next week. 

My understanding is that when there is cargo in the cabin, they are required to have flight attendants on duty as well. So some work and pay for them as well, particularly with the subsidies in the US.

[VMax1700]

This progress is great, but could I remind would be travelers to check each country's national government website to check the individual requirements to enter the country.

 

As an example, to enter Ireland from USA, Canada and other countries, non essential travel is not permitted and  there is still mandatory hotel quarantine, which is expected to extend until early June.

https://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/travel_and_recreation/travel_to_ireland/travel_to_ireland_during_covid.html#

Just don't jump on the plane without doing a little research first! 😉

[ilikeanswers]

19 hours ago, Hlitner said:

But, for now, they are only accepting the vaccines that have been approved by the EU which DOES NOT include the Sinovac or Russian vaccine.  Go figure.  One might wonder how fast they will capitulate when China and Russia complain.

 

I think Hungary has made the choice a little obsolete, otherwise it is kind of double standards to let Hungarians travel all over the EU but not Chinese😳. Besides if cruises are to start they probably can't afford to be too rigid with vaccine types, most of the countries crew come are using Chinese vaccines.

[crazyank]

2 hours ago, VMax1700 said:

This progress is great, but could I remind would be travelers to check each country's national government website to check the individual requirements to enter the country.

 

As an example, to enter Ireland from USA, Canada and other countries, non essential travel is not permitted and  there is still mandatory hotel quarantine, which is expected to extend until early June.

https://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/travel_and_recreation/travel_to_ireland/travel_to_ireland_during_covid.html#

Just don't jump on the plane without doing a little research first! 😉

yes, as things stand today.  If Ireland signs off on the new agreement all this will change dramatically 

[ericfromri]

1 hour ago, ilikeanswers said:

 

I think Hungary has made the choice a little obsolete, otherwise it is kind of double standards to let Hungarians travel all over the EU but not Chinese😳. Besides if cruises are to start they probably can't afford to be too rigid with vaccine types, most of the countries crew come are using Chinese vaccines.

that is the one group that needs the most scrutiny...

[Colin117]

On 5/19/2021 at 2:47 PM, Hlitner said:

The topic is huge for travelers and potentially huge for cruisers.  The EU is apparently going to adopt a new policy this Friday 5/21 that will allow fully vaccinated travelers (only with Astra-Zeneca, Pfizer, Moderna and J&J) to enter any of the 27 EU countries without testing or quarantine.   ✂️

 

This doesn't make sense to me.  At best the vaccines are 95% effective which means 5% of people won't be protected.  That may not seem a lot but it scales up real quick.

 

Take 500,000 travelers and that's 25,000 people that won't be protected and who thus could be carrying and spreading Covid.  It's likely more than that because not every vaccinated person will have made a strong response to the vaccines.  This speaks more to societal control than it does any genuine concern for public health.   Surely everybody should be tested regardless?

Edited May 20, 2021 by Colin117

[ericfromri]

4 minutes ago, Colin117 said:

 

This doesn't make sense to me.  At best the vaccines are 95% effective which means 5% of people won't be protected.  That may not seem a lot but it scales up real quick.

 

Take 500,000 travelers and that's 250,000 people that won't be protected and who thus could be carrying and spreading Covid.  It's likely more than that because not every vaccinated person will have made a strong response to the vaccines.  This speaks more to societal control than it does any genuine concern for public health.   Surely everybody should be tested regardless?

  and its 95% effective each time at interaction with potential infection, not your either immune or not permenately.

Edited May 20, 2021 by ericfromri

[Colin117]

Yep sorry typo.  Corrected.

[Hlitner]

2 hours ago, Colin117 said:

 

This doesn't make sense to me.  At best the vaccines are 95% effective which means 5% of people won't be protected.  That may not seem a lot but it scales up real quick.

 

Take 500,000 travelers and that's 25,000 people that won't be protected and who thus could be carrying and spreading Covid.  It's likely more than that because not every vaccinated person will have made a strong response to the vaccines.  This speaks more to societal control than it does any genuine concern for public health.   Surely everybody should be tested regardless?

Colin, you are simply basing your post on widely publicized information (from so called experts) that is mostly incorrect.  Yes, we have all heard of the "efficacy" of Moderna and Pfizer as 95-96% which would be amazing if true.  But the reality is actually much better and many experts seem to do their best to play down facts (draw your own conclusion).  The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are actually in the 99% effective range (based on actual data in the field as opposed to the ole Phase 3 stuff).  Why the difference?  One issue is that most of the "breakthroughs" have occurred with folks who have very compromised immune systems (due to other diseases/conditions).  These folks are generally well aware of their conditions (i.e. consider a Rheumatoid Arthritis patient who takes very powerful drugs to suppress their immune system).  The CDC clearly warns these folks that the vaccines may not be very effective in their cases and they need to take the appropriate precautions.  But otherwise the Pfizer and Moderna are so darn good that it would be a statistical anomaly if normal folks got COVID.  J&J is not quite as good although they boast that 100% of their patients avoid hospitalization/death.

 

So, when you start to cite your concerns what you are saying is that you want zero risk...which simply does not exist in our society or with any known vaccine.  Using your kind of thinking the entire world would be locked down forever for COVID and many other diseases. 

 

I would suggest that folks such as yourself who are still concerned should continue to wear a mask, social distance, and lock yourself down as much as possible for the rest of your life.

 

Hank

 

[SelectSys]

5 hours ago, ilikeanswers said:

Besides if cruises are to start they probably can't afford to be too rigid with vaccine types, most of the countries crew come are using Chinese vaccines.

Interestingly given the CDC's reluctance to restart cruising, the US government continues to share the vaccine freely for those that make it to the US shores.  This includes 3 ships coming to San Diego for crew vaccines.  Maybe the crews will simply be vaccinated again using an approved vaccine?

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/story/2021-05-19/holland-america-crew-get-covid-19-vaccines-in-san-diego-but-still-no-word-on-when-cruising-will-return

 

I find this really amazing as San Diego is a very small cruise port relative to LA and the US generally.

 

1 hour ago, Hlitner said:

I would suggest that folks ... who are still concerned should continue to wear a mask, social distance, and lock yourself down as much as possible for the rest of your life.

Great advice for extremely (irrationally?)  risk averse! 

 

To all - Many forget or simply don't realize that people aren't all that good in accurately measuring risk.  Millions of links on this with the one cited below simply an example. 

https://www.cogencyteam.com/news/2018/02/why-are-humans-bad-at-calculating-risk/#:~:text=People are less able to,risk in a certain population.

People are less able to accurately assess probability when faced with either strong positive or negative emotions.

Research has shown that perception of risk is greatly influenced by the unknowability, uncontrollability, fear and unequal distribution of risk in a certain population. There are many theories as to why these factors so strongly cloud judgment and alter human risk perception more so than probability and statistics.

 

We all know from these boards that COVID certainly creates an emotional response in many whether or not they actually have experienced the illness!

Edited May 20, 2021 by SelectSys

[hallasm]

7 hours ago, VMax1700 said:

This progress is great, but could I remind would be travelers to check each country's national government website to check the individual requirements to enter the country.

 

As an example, to enter Ireland from USA, Canada and other countries, non essential travel is not permitted and  there is still mandatory hotel quarantine, which is expected to extend until early June.

yes, before you get too excited it is important to note that the EU / Schengen countries are not obliged to follow this EU decision.

I’m sure that some countries like Ireland will not open their borders until later.

[Hlitner]

51 minutes ago, hallasm said:

yes, before you get too excited it is important to note that the EU / Schengen countries are not obliged to follow this EU decision.

I’m sure that some countries like Ireland will not open their borders until later.

I do think that Ireland and a few other Northern European countries will be somewhat slower at opening up to tourism.  But it will be different in the South and throughout much of the 27 countries.  Greece has certainly stoked the fires of tourism.  Many of the European Health authorities will quickly realize that there is little risk (to Europe) to open up to those who are fully vaccinated.   It does seem to be a bit difficult for some governments to accept that the vaccinated are both safe and not a thread to others.  

 

As to Ireland, I have no idea about their thinking but there is going to be a lot of pressure on their government to open to US Tourism since there are many close ties (often family ties) between our countries.  At this time I have no clue as to what our own government will do when some of the EU member countries ask for reciprocity in terms on unfettered travel.   Our CDC is constantly contradicting itself such as when it says the fully vaccinated are both safe from COVID and spreading COVID but yet the agency refuses to allow fully vaccinate from the EU (and elsewhere) to enter our country.   Common sense tells us that the CDC will soon change that policy, but I sometimes think that "common sense" and the CDC are mutually exclusive.

 

Hank

[Hlitner]

After looking at the details of what has been approved by the European Commission I will walk back my topic heading that come countries will open up by this weekend.  While that is still possible, it is more likely there will be some delay (probably measured in a low number of weeks) while multiple EU countries try to negotiate reciprocal travel agreements with other countries (including the USA).   The other issue for any tourist is that if they are permitted to travel to a particular country, will there be enough tourist-related things open?  

 

Hank 

[ilikeanswers]

3 hours ago, SelectSys said:

Maybe the crews will simply be vaccinated again using an approved vaccine?

 

That does not sound particularly ethical😳. We have no idea how China's vaccines will interact with another vaccine especially since China hasn't been completely transparent about their vaccines. Plus I could see a backlash from crew about having to be re vaccinated just because the USA does not recognise their vaccination.