Planning for worst case scenario - FAO Molecrochip

[Interestedcruisefan]

18 minutes ago, belgrano2 said:

I'm due to do a 35night cruise 3rd jan on ventura, it seems all the carribean islands are throwing up barriers currently with some expecting a test in the previous 24 hrs prior to arrival. As we are going to lots of Islands highly likely to cost a packet in testing for every one just to enjoy a few hrs ashore.

Booked this cruise a very long time ago, as as its so close to the date we wont be able to defer without financial loss into 5 figs.

However we really want  to go, and although the safety measures the cruise ships have adopted worked well for normal Covid, seeing some of the factual examples coming out from Norway, point to a fact that they are totally inadequate  due to current runaway transmissibility. Throw into the mix the length of cruise (cant easily get off if in incubation period, and fact that nearly everyone will be elderly and retired, I've real fears of total chaos). Think one major problems is the Caribbean is a few weeks behind the UK in people becoming infected, and by the time we sail there..might find all ports shut, and infection raging on board??? 

  https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/world-news/omicron-super-spreader-party-norway-22368868

35 nights obviously gives lots of opportunities to catch covid for staff and passengers alike

 

The longer the cruise the more tests for everyone and the more risk of quarantine

 

I would  see what kind of numbers end up in quarantine on the shorter cruises in the next couple of weeks and make a judgement then if I was in your shoes 

 

If the numbers get disclosed of course

Edited December 20, 2021 by Interestedcruisefan

[yorkshirephil]

11 minutes ago, belgrano2 said:

I'm due to do a 35night cruise 3rd jan on ventura, it seems all the carribean islands are throwing up barriers currently with some expecting a test in the previous 24 hrs prior to arrival. As we are going to lots of Islands highly likely to cost a packet in testing for every one just to enjoy a few hrs ashore.

Booked this cruise a very long time ago, as as its so close to the date we wont be able to defer without financial loss into 5 figs.

However we really want  to go, and although the safety measures the cruise ships have adopted worked well for normal Covid, seeing some of the factual examples coming out from Norway, point to a fact that they are totally inadequate  due to current runaway transmissibility. Throw into the mix the length of cruise (cant easily get off if in incubation period, and fact that nearly everyone will be elderly and retired, I've real fears of total chaos). Think one major problems is the Caribbean is a few weeks behind the UK in people becoming infected, and by the time we sail there..might find all ports shut, and infection raging on board??? 

  https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/world-news/omicron-super-spreader-party-norway-22368868

We were booked on this cruise, well before covid reared it's ugly head. However we bailed out just before final payment was due, this was not because we feared catching covid but because we were wary of being put into isolation in the Caribbean or even on the way to the Caribbean. We have been to all the islands before so were not overly concerned if we missed some as the weather would make up for the loss.

The fact that most passengers will be retired could be a plus as it is highly likely that they will have had their boosters, which gives the highest protection against Omicron. I would imagine there will be a reduced capacity aboard as I know from the media site event for this cruise that lots of people bailed out. 

Have you contacted P&O to see if you can move the cruise as they are allowing cruises to be moved at short notice at the moment. It may also turn out that the cruise is cancelled depending on what restrictions are put in place over the next few days. 

 

I wish you luck and hope that if you do go you have a fantastic time  as you will be in a better place and maybe even safer than us at home. 

[Interestedcruisefan]

As a recent comparison:

 

RC Symphony last week did a 7 night cruise from Miami that had 6,000 passengers and crew on board

 

So a very busy cruise compared to P and O right now

 

48 positive cases at the end of the 7 nights

 

6 of those evacuated halfway

 

All other positives quarantine on board

 

95 per cent of passengers and crew fully vaccinated 

 

98 per cent of the positives fully vaccinated

 

Less than 1 per cent of passengers and crew infected by the end of the cruise. But it's just 7 nights of course

 

I guess that sets a benchmark

 

 

Edited December 20, 2021 by Interestedcruisefan

[jeanlyon]

Really glad I have moved our cruises.

[wowzz]

43 minutes ago, Interestedcruisefan said:

As a recent comparison:

 

RC Symphony last week did a 7 night cruise from Miami that had 6,000 passengers and crew on board

 

So a very busy cruise compared to P and O right now

 

48 positive cases at the end of the 7 nights

 

6 of those evacuated halfway

 

All other positives quarantine on board

 

95 per cent of passengers and crew fully vaccinated 

 

98 per cent of the positives fully vaccinated

 

Less than 1 per cent of passengers and crew infected by the end of the cruise. But it's just 7 nights of course

 

I guess that sets a benchmark

 

 

It might have helped if a negative  PCR test result was required within 48 hours prior to boarding,  as required,  for example,  by Princess. 

[Interestedcruisefan]

1 hour ago, wowzz said:

It might have helped if a negative  PCR test result was required within 48 hours prior to boarding,  as required,  for example,  by Princess. 

Looks like RC are asking for self administered tests to be taken pre boarding that you take whilst being videoed? 

 

Or something like that?

 

RC crew tested once a week 

 

Clearly that system is not working 

 

Was surprised they sailed with 6,000 on the ship tbh

[zap99]

18 minutes ago, Interestedcruisefan said:

Looks like RC are asking for self administered tests to be taken pre boarding that you take whilst being videoed? 

 

Or something like that?

 

RC crew tested once a week 

 

Clearly that system is not working 

 

Was surprised they sailed with 6,000 on the ship tbh

6000 passengers and crew. I believe 2200 is the normal crew compliment.

[Interestedcruisefan]

10 minutes ago, zap99 said:

6000 passengers and crew. I believe 2200 is the normal crew compliment.

Thats a lot of people to be cruising together right now

 

Good job it was just a 7 night cruise

[molecrochip]

On 12/19/2021 at 3:32 AM, Swanseasailor said:

I Have a cruise on IONA in February and looking forward to going, fully vaccinated and in fair health.

While we have been made aware of protocols that mean infected passengers are removed at next port (which P and O claim is port authority decision) and close contacts isolated onboard. These protocols came as a surprise to many and the problems regarding insurance were highlighted by Megabear2.

 

A full outbreak plan? depending on severity. Is P and O or relevant port authority in control of such plan are there any implications for passengers regarding insurance?

 

Actions taken depend on relevant location does this confirm that P and O will not be the decision maker, again are there any implications regarding passenger insurance that you can foresee.

 

Planning has been done and actions now in place regarding Omicron/new variant this scenario well expected? Please could you elaborate on what P and O are going to do given the medical reports of the high transability of the Omicron or any future variant we could see. 

While passengers are reassured of their safety. By being asked to participate in locating their lifeboat/fire muster points.

There are many reports/tweets and complaints on social media claiming that onboard protocols are not being enforced regarding lift capacity/ hand washing/self service in buffet social distancing in entertainment venues not being adhered to.

   Such reports may or may not be true they do however give cause to question whether P and O are actually able to implement any safety plans regarding any any covid variants.

So my final Questions are you, or P and O prepared to release what plans and what actions they are going  implement and how are they to be enforced on board.

 

Releasing a statement saying we have a plan, but not giving information regarding what/how such a plan is leaves it open to wild speculation. In order for a passenger to CRUISE WITH CONFIDENCE I for one would have such confidence  if I were aware of what I was getting into. I for one certainly respect the quality of your posts molecrochip and I look forward in hope that you will be able to shine a light on my questions. Thank you and stay safe

Do remember these are my words and my way of putting across my knowledge of the situation. I'm certainly not sat here copying out of the Coronavirus Procedures manual!

 

Protocols had eased in line with the Delta variant and customer feedback. Now Omicron is present, expect protocols to tighten again.

 

As in any scenario, there are some things that need to be enforced, and some things which "we'd like you to do, to help". How do you enforce lift occupancy? Stick a crew member in the lift and its a close risk to them. Stick a crew member in the lift lobby and you need one in every lift lobby - that's 30+ crew members, and what if two lifts come at the same time? Also, how do you know that the six people in that same lift aren't all a travelling group? That doesn't stop you saying to someone, this lift is full, please wait.

 

When I was onboard recently, handwashing in the buffets was being very well policed. I'm sure if people try hard enough, they will find the one moment a day when that's not the case.

 

Actions dependent on location. e.g. if you are two days from Southampton then you might keep a passenger on board and comfortable that you would debark if three days into a 14 night cruise.

 

Degree to which protocols are implemented is a decision made between ship and CUK shoreside based on all available data, not least passenger demographics on board.

 

On 12/19/2021 at 9:27 AM, Harry Peterson said:

That’s the Mail’s take, isn’t it wowzz. Their figure of 85 may or may not still be correct, but given that it’s only three weeks since the first reported UK cases hospitalisations at this point will be low. There’s still no evidence to support the claims about lower severity, and that’s being categorically denied by medics and scientists, who are still trying to persuade the government to take further action immediately before it’s too late.

The initial case data out of South Africa, as verified by the WHO, shows higher transmissibility but lower severity. What doesn't exist is data on Omicron reinfection and also the effect in the UK. There is a PHE briefing issued every two or so days on Omicron, its numbers, it data etc.

 

On 12/19/2021 at 9:36 AM, Interestedcruisefan said:

At which stage the cruise lines will be able to better afford putting health and safety ahead of cashflow whilst the lockdown lasts

 

And decision making on cruises going ahead will be taken out of the cruise lines hands

Not necessarily. Many people still want to cruise, even now. All the protocols were designed in anticipation of another wave. E.g. further restrictions possible on board ship.

 

On 12/19/2021 at 12:31 PM, lolabarola said:

Hi

 

Contacted our TA yesterday to see if there was an option to move our early Jan Caribbean cruise and was told the option is only available to cruises out of Southampton. Any cruise where a flight is involved, normal terms apply apparently. Anyone know of instances where this is not the case?

 

On 12/19/2021 at 3:59 PM, Pirate Pete 56 said:

I am booked on Britannia from New Years eve for a 2 week cruise. I am concerned that I may end up stuck onboard if none of the islands allow a 'sick ship' to dock. 

There is talk of the PM introducing a lockdown .Can I get a refund if the cruise is not cancelled?

There is not the problem in the Caribbean that there is in Europe/Africa. The Caribbean islands are also so much more reliant on tourism than Europe. The big cruise lines are all working with the various Islands to keep them open.

 

20 hours ago, wowzz said:

I think  you may be right. Cruises are totally different to "normal " life. For a start,  every one has been vaccinated twice,  and will be tested again before boarding. Safer than Wetherspoons. 

I can see  P&O and other cruise lines requiring booster jabs by mid January,  by which time everyone will have had the opportunity to be  jabbed.

In time, the booster may become a mandatory inclusion however P&O are focused on finalising their 1 April 2022 policy so I'm not expecting a sudden change in January.

 

7 hours ago, Castle25 said:

i am very surprised that the buffett is still self serve.  Also the design of P&O ships means there are many entrances to thre buffett and no-one to police sanitation.  RC have a single way into buffet and everyone HAS to wash hands or they not allowed in

It varies ship by ship and I can think of at least a couple of RC ships which have four entrances to buffets. Its all about people flow management. Its not impossible to control. But yes, buffet can revert back to served, as happens if there is a norovirus outbreak on board.

[Cathygh]

13 hours ago, molecrochip said:

 

Not necessarily. Many people still want to cruise, even now. All the protocols were designed in anticipation of another wave. E.g. further restrictions possible on board ship.

 

Thank you Molecrochip for the points you have made. You haven't said what happens if there is a lockdown so would ships return to the UK asap? And for me personally I am due to sail to the Canaries in January if Spain closes its borders would the ships sail to chase the sun? Or not sail at all? Thanks.

[Interestedcruisefan]

19 minutes ago, Cathygh said:

Thank you Molecrochip for the points you have made. You haven't said what happens if there is a lockdown so would ships return to the UK asap? And for me personally I am due to sail to the Canaries in January if Spain closes its borders would the ships sail to chase the sun? Or not sail at all? Thanks.

Lots of questions there I doubt anyone could answer with any confidence

 

A lot must depend on the number of positives omicron starts causing on the ships

 

Could put an awful lot of crew and passengers into isolation at the same time

 

Big problem in the normal world right now is the amount of staff off work either because they are positive or a close contact

 

My two worries putting me off cruising are firstly quarantine abroad

 

Secondly the cruise itself being spoilt by too many others catching covid on board and everything being disrupted from all the quarantine of others whilst on the ship

 

Im not too bothered about getting off the ship for excursions. Could live without them 

[bobstheboy]

The Spanish regions are meeting tomorrow with tourism high on the agenda. Watch this space.

[lujaha]

7 minutes ago, Interestedcruisefan said:

Lots of questions there I doubt anyone could answer with any confidence

 

A lot must depend on the number of positives omicron starts causing on the ships

 

Could put an awful lot of crew and passengers into isolation at the same time

 

Big problem in the normal world right now is the amount of staff off work either because they are positive or a close contact

 

My two worries putting me off cruising are firstly quarantine abroad

 

Secondly the cruise itself being spoilt by too many others catching covid on board and everything being disrupted from all the quarantine of others whilst on the ship

 

Im not too bothered about getting off the ship for excursions. Could live without them 

I'm thinking along the same lines as you.  We cruise end of January on Iona.  Or will we?  To go or not to go, that is the question.  Rather hoping the decision is taken out of our hands.  

[Selbourne]

Sky News reported earlier that 60 passengers on QM2 have tested positive for Covid and 1,100 passengers risk quarantine over Christmas. Can’t find anything on the Cunard page about this (possibly due to time difference?) and very little online, other than this, so I’ve no idea if this is being hyped a bit or not

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1539148/queen-mary-two-cruise-britons-stranded-new-york

 

[Cathygh]

2 minutes ago, Selbourne said:

Sky News reported earlier that 60 passengers on QM2 have tested positive for Covid and 1,100 passengers risk quarantine over Christmas. Can’t find anything on the Cunard page about this (possibly due to time difference?) and very little online, other than this, so I’ve no idea if this is being hyped a bit or not

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1539148/queen-mary-two-cruise-britons-stranded-new-york

 

I've seen the same report and was just about to post about it! At first glance it seems the cases are amongst those who boarded in Southampton, but maybe not all Brits as some Americans flew over to join QM there. I'm not sure what this means for the rest of the cruise as she was meant to go to the Carribbean next.

[Interestedcruisefan]

22 minutes ago, Selbourne said:

Sky News reported earlier that 60 passengers on QM2 have tested positive for Covid and 1,100 passengers risk quarantine over Christmas. Can’t find anything on the Cunard page about this (possibly due to time difference?) and very little online, other than this, so I’ve no idea if this is being hyped a bit or not

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1539148/queen-mary-two-cruise-britons-stranded-new-york

 

Wow

 

Exactly what I was worried about in post 136 above

 

And at the exact same time I was asking about Cunard QE in the other thread 

 

Just as I started getting my hopes up about a New Year cruise! 

 

Spooky

 

Thats someone sending me a message that it ain't going to happen

Edited December 21, 2021 by Interestedcruisefan

[Harry Peterson]

44 minutes ago, Selbourne said:

Sky News reported earlier that 60 passengers on QM2 have tested positive for Covid and 1,100 passengers risk quarantine over Christmas. Can’t find anything on the Cunard page about this (possibly due to time difference?) and very little online, other than this, so I’ve no idea if this is being hyped a bit or not

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1539148/queen-mary-two-cruise-britons-stranded-new-york

 

The Express seems to be the only online source of this story at the moment - not even on Reuters.  Given that the Express is notorious for completely invented fake stories I'd be looking for a reputable news source before jumping to any conclusions. 

 

It may be true - but odd that only the Express is running it.

[Dermotsgirl]

Apparently it has also reported on Sky News.

 

There was somebody posting from QM2  on a thread on the Cunard area of the forum. The last time they posted was on Sunday, when they were waiting for the results of their Covid tests for entry into New York.

 

Hopefully, they will update.

 

I have friends on this cruise, so I have a particular interest in what’s happening 

[Selbourne]

43 minutes ago, Harry Peterson said:

The Express seems to be the only online source of this story at the moment - not even on Reuters.  Given that the Express is notorious for completely invented fake stories I'd be looking for a reputable news source before jumping to any conclusions. 

 

It may be true - but odd that only the Express is running it.

That's why I ended the post with a caveat that it might be hyped, although I heard it on Sky News first but they may have taken it from the Express for all I know! 

[Selbourne]

2 minutes ago, Harry Peterson said:

Who knows?  The Express story is based on a report or reports from disgruntled passengers - it may well be accurate, but I imagine other news sources will be doing a bit more checking first.  The Express loves clickbait and fake news, but I suppose even the Express must get it right sometimes!

 

What's particularly concerning, though, is the suggestion that the cruise companies are hushing this up.  If that proves to be true, it's not going to do them any favours in the longer terms, since trust is a pretty key asset with cruising.

The story was breaking here when it was only 5 or 6am in New York, so hopefully as time goes on we will hear from people who are on the ship and it will turn out to be exaggerated. There’s a fair bit of chatter on the Cunard board about it now, but it’s also based upon U.K. news reports. 

[Interestedcruisefan]

Too much detail already in there for it not to be happening

 

I get the fact people don't trust disgruntled passengers but on the opposite end is cruise lines who try and pretend all is ok

 

Clearly it's not ok on Queen Mary right now

 

If you can get 60 positives in a week on a cruise with just 1000 passengers imagine what's going to start happening on the busier cruises with omicron

 

Will be quarantine chaos 

[Selbourne]

According to someone on the Cunard board, Cunard are saying that it’s only 10 passengers and they have been offloaded for quarantine in the US. Ship deep cleaned and cruise continuing as planned. Difficult to know who or what to believe but let’s hope that’s the extent of it as it would be a rotten way to spend Christmas. 

[NoFlyGuy]

Some posts on the FB Iona group say there is now mandatory onboard testing even if you don't intend to go ashore. Don't know if this has just come into force or not.

 

Even more reason to have moved our 3rd Jan Caribbean cruise if this will now be fleet wide.

 

Can see lots more transfers being requested now. 

[davecttr]

That makes a significant difference as I only intended to go ashore at a couple of places for a stroll. the thought of several LFT tests which are not overly reliable unless backed up by an immediate quick PCR test is worrying.

[wowzz]

4 minutes ago, davecttr said:

That makes a significant difference as I only intended to go ashore at a couple of places for a stroll. the thought of several LFT tests which are not overly reliable unless backed up by an immediate quick PCR test is worrying.

Although false positive LFT tests are virtually unheard of.