Cruising stocks getting hammered today. (March 2023)

[Quo Vadis?]

Royal, Carnival and Norwegian stocks are down over 5% today.

Does anyone have any insight?

[mahdnc]

3 minutes ago, Quo Vadis? said:

Royal, Carnival and Norwegian stocks are down over 5% today.

Does anyone have any insight?

 

Bookings have dropped because of cutbacks?  Maybe not.

[Arizona Wildcat]

The DOW was down about 600 points today.  Looking like interest rates heading higher and sooner.  Mortgage rates above 7% here.

Bad week for stock market.

As to cruiselines have you seen any news?  Last I heard was a couple weeks ago with record bookings.

[foodsvcmgr]

I think this is reactionary from the general poor economic news rather than anything specifically related to the cruise lines.

[Tigerfnan23]

One would think that businesses whose services fall more into the "want" vs "need" category would be disproportionately impacted by poor economic news.  

[DaKahuna]

5 minutes ago, foodsvcmgr said:

I think this is reactionary from the general poor economic news rather than anything specifically related to the cruise lines.

 

I agree -- the DJIA, NASDQ, and S&P 500 were all down significantly today.  Not a good day.  My believe is that a lot of it is a reaction to the proposed tax hikes the current administration is trying to push as well as the budget.  

 

[mahdnc]

Casino stocks, hotels, airlines, Disney are sharply down.  

[BermudaBound2014]

11 minutes ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

Last I heard was a couple weeks ago with record bookings.

We should all use caution interpreting the news release of record bookings. I suspect some of this is due to manipulation. Cruise lines are giving away record number of free casino cruises. Couple that with $25 deposits (ccl) and other creative booking incentives and numbers are up. Also, is that record bookings compared to 2019 or record bookings in terms of year over average? I’ve seen it reported both way. Lots of shenanigans in play. When cruise lines can report record #sailing I’ll be more confident. So far no line is close.

[prmssk]

3 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

We should all use caution interpreting the news release of record bookings. I suspect some of this is due to manipulation. Cruise lines are giving away record number of free casino cruises. Couple that with $25 deposits (ccl) and other creative booking incentives and numbers are up. Also, is that record bookings compared to 2019 or record bookings in terms of year over average? I’ve seen it reported both way. Lots of shenanigans in play. When cruise lines can report record #sailing I’ll be more confident. So far no line is close.

You can find or twist a statistic to support just about any claim you want to make.

[Jim_Iain]

Personally I find that it is useless to speculate on why a particular segment or stock drops when the whole market is down.    Today's Total Stock Market dropped shortly today while the market digested the weekly jobless-claims data and awaiting tomorrows monthly labor-market report. 

 

Fed has been signaling a larger and longer interest rate increase which helped slam the Bank Stocks today as well as companies that hold large debt.

 

When I was a day trader -  I loved days like today.    Lots of opportunity to play off the fears when fundamentals haven't significantly changed.

[mrgabriel]

4 minutes ago, Jim_Iain said:

Personally I find that it is useless to speculate on why a particular segment or stock drops when the whole market is down.    Today's Total Stock Market dropped shortly today while the market digested the weekly jobless-claims data and awaiting tomorrows monthly labor-market report. 

 

Fed has been signaling a larger and longer interest rate increase which helped slam the Bank Stocks today as well as companies that hold large debt.

 

When I was a day trader -  I loved days like today.    Lots of opportunity to play off the fears when fundamentals haven't significantly changed.

 

Agreed.

 

And I'll add that unless you're a day trader, daily fluctuations don't always mean much.

[BermudaBound2014]

1 hour ago, prmssk said:

You can find or twist a statistic to support just about any claim you want to make.

Exactly- I had a statistician on staff for many years who constantly asked me what I wanted the numbers to say so she could  “crunch them until they confessed”. 🙂 

[Salt Lifer]

ALL stocks appeared to take a hammering today.  I don't think it was li.ited to just cruise stocks.  I maid the mistake of checking my portfolio and wish I hadn't.

[grandgeezer]

20 minutes ago, Salt Lifer said:

ALL stocks appeared to take a hammering today.  I don't think it was li.ited to just cruise stocks.  I maid the mistake of checking my portfolio and wish I hadn't.

Hang in there…

If you are a true investor, you shouldn’t let days like today get under your skin. You have to think long term. I’ve heavily into the market for over 35 years and I don’t have enough fingers and toes to count the number of days, like today, I’ve had like this. I have also had as many days where the market took off.

Based mostly on my 401k balance, we were able to retire in August 2001 at the age of 55. Since then, we have put zero dollars, out of pocket, just dividends and capital gains, into the account. As of today’s close, when I include the money we took out, the balance is 2 1/2 times what it was in 2001.

[dlh015]

2 hours ago, Jim_Iain said:

Personally I find that it is useless to speculate on why a particular segment or stock drops when the whole market is down. 

Couldn't agree more...

2 hours ago, Jim_Iain said:

When I was a day trader -  I loved days like today. 

Yep, same here. 

 

Top market movers?  Fear and greed. Always has been, always will be. 

 

 

[Orator]

Wait for tomorrow. If the unemployment numbers down more than expected stocks will fall. Powell signaled more rate heights to fight inflation.

[Guest 4-2-N-8]

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

 

No landing. Soft landing. Hard landing. Everyone has a thought on the economic future.

 

I noted a (marginal) drop in some stateroom types for my August Beyond cruise (though for my stateroom type, pricing is slightly higher with only one room left), while my airfare for same dates/times/flights R/T to Rome from California for two is now ~$24k for both of us in same flight cabin class. This is somewhat of a jump in price, but seats are selling out.

 

I just enjoy life and living and memories made.

 

 

[Fly and Sail]

You call this a hammering? This is nothing.

[ymncruise]

Silicon Valley Bank Failure?

[Salt Lifer]

16 hours ago, grandgeezer said:

Hang in there…

If you are a true investor, you shouldn’t let days like today get under your skin. You have to think long term. I’ve heavily into the market for over 35 years and I don’t have enough fingers and toes to count the number of days, like today, I’ve had like this. I have also had as many days where the market took off.

Based mostly on my 401k balance, we were able to retire in August 2001 at the age of 55. Since then, we have put zero dollars, out of pocket, just dividends and capital gains, into the account. As of today’s close, when I include the money we took out, the balance is 2 1/2 times what it was in 2001.

 

Ha! I am a true investor and these days DO get me down, regardless.  No one is happy when the day's tally at close shows a negative.  The only positive is it creates buying opportunities but there are only so many of those that I care to make.

[Jim_Iain]

1 hour ago, ymncruise said:

Silicon Valley Bank Failure?

I was just reading the details on SVB this morning.    Living in Silicon Valley they are heavily in the news.     Seems the rate hikes has pushed many Institutional Companies to pull funds to cover their increased costs and forced SVB to sell bond and a 1.8 Billion loss to cover their margin requirements.

 

Their stock dropped a whopping 60%.  

 

 

[Jim_Iain]

There are many types of traders and I was mostly a Volatility trader.   While I did trade on the VIX I mostly traded leveraged Put and Call ETF e.g. SDOW and UDOW.     Crazy  and not for the faint of heart.    I couldn't leave my computer for 1 minute when in the market and was often in and out of a trade 8 or 9 times a day.  

 

I finally retired totally from the day to day market and keep my money at Betterment.   They have a great product and you can adjust your risk tolerance on a daily basis.    I usually am comfortable at a particular risk tolerance but sometime when the market tanks or skyrockets I change my tolerance and then switch again when the market corrects.

 

It is so nice not to play the market any longer.    Funny thing is I'm not a Casino Gambler -   I'm just not knowledgeable enough to even think I could make money

[mnocket]

For me the question regarding cruise line stocks has been - "Do you think the worst is behind them and the only question is the speed of their recovery?".   I thought the answer was yes after they reopened and demand was strong.  Now I'm not so sure.

 

All signs are that cruise lines are being forced to tighten their belts (to the point that they are disenfranchising some loyal customers).  Given their high debts and the increasing likelihood that interest rates will remain higher for longer, it seems some cruise lines may indeed die from long-Covid.  That is.... Covid didn't kill them, but the aftereffects of Covid may.  I honestly wouldn't be at all surprised if one or more major cruise lines aren't forced to reorganize in the next year or so.  At best, cruise line stocks have become a purely speculative investment. 

[grandgeezer]

3 hours ago, Salt Lifer said:

 

Ha! I am a true investor and these days DO get me down, regardless.  No one is happy when the day's tally at close shows a negative.  The only positive is it creates buying opportunities but there are only so many of those that I care to make.

Nobody said you had to be happy with a negative tally. If you are going to stay in the market long term, you have to learn to live with it otherwise it will eat you alive. If you can’t, get out, your health is more important than a couple of bucks.

As far as opportunities, I no longer trade stocks and haven’t since I retired. The money I save and some of the money I am forced to take from my 401k, due to minimum distribution after 70 1/2, goes to our only son and daughter in law, and our only grandchild. The rest goes into CDs, let them spend it, when we’re gone, we can’t. We have everything we want and done everything we want thanks mostly to the stock market.

Ensuring they will be able to live with somewhat a stress free life, financially, means more to us than any house, car, or cruises ever could.

[mahdnc]

WSJ article published yesterday: This Cruise Line Can't Turn You Down