navybankerteacher Posted December 22, 2017 #1 Share Posted December 22, 2017 There are many variables which have to impact cruise bookings: A) Seasonal weather- predictions of unusually cold winters in the north must inspire increased bookings. In our case, even normal winter weather makes us want to get away. B) Reduced alternatives - recent storm damage to many Caribbean islands must inspire land vacationers to consider cruising as an alternative. Our usual January St. Maarten land visit location being unavailable has led us to book a January cruise. C) Marketing - advertising and word-of-mouth must make many new cruisers aware of cruising as an option; while ever larger ships, with increasing variety of entertainment and activity draw an ever-wider market. D) Available discretionary funds- decision to book a cruise must depend upon perceived affordability. Certainly the recent boom in the stock market must make many people (particularly retirees living in part on IRA's) feel that they can more easily afford it. This last might be impacted by the 30% drop in Bitcoin value over the past week - from close to $20,000 to a bot over $12,000. It is virtually certain that a broad stock market drop of that magnitude would come close to wiping out future bookings. Are there enough cruisers/potential cruisers actively invested in Bitcoin for this to have a noticeable impact on cruise bookings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare Keith1010 Posted December 22, 2017 #2 Share Posted December 22, 2017 I hope not. This Bitcoin is nut IMHO. I wish people would learn the lessons of the past. But I guess they don't. Keith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iancal Posted December 22, 2017 #3 Share Posted December 22, 2017 No. But currency fluctuations have definitely impacted how often we cruise, and even more importantly, where we spend our vacation dollars. Currency plays a part on where we travel and what types of travel products we purchase. When our dollar was strong vis a vis USD we took quite a few cruises and travelled extensively in the US. No so any more. Just last month we selected an AI over a Caribbean cruise. We could not justify the difference in cost. Now that the GBP and Euro are less expensive for us we are considering a fall trip with a month in the UK and a month in Europe. The last cruise we took was SA last winter. But it was sold to us on a one day at par sale. Oddly enough, it was a real sale, not one of those marketing ploys so we pushed the buy button. No cruises on the horizon. Only chance for us may be a last minute cruise while travelling next fall. Alas, no bitcoin. Learned long ago to only invest in things that we understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare sparks1093 Posted December 22, 2017 #4 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Neither stock market fluctuations nor bit coin fluctuations are going to impact my ability to book future cruises. Airfare and cruse fare fluctuations, maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paul929207 Posted December 22, 2017 #5 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Some one posted the other day that they had enough savings for a round the world cruise and was trying to decide between booking for 2019 and buying several bitcoins and holding them for a year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
navybankerteacher Posted December 22, 2017 Author #6 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Some one posted the other day that they had enough savings for a round the world cruise and was trying to decide between booking for 2019 and buying several bitcoins and holding them for a year Wow! I hope he comes back to let us know what he chose, and how it worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
navybankerteacher Posted December 22, 2017 Author #7 Share Posted December 22, 2017 ... Alas, no bitcoin. Learned long ago to only invest in things that we understand. You are in good company; Warren Buffet, probably the most successful US investor, who always urges investing in things you understand, has essentially defined Bitcoin as a "mirage". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XBGuy Posted December 22, 2017 #8 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Personally, I'm getting into tulip bulbs. It is clear from my research that the price is going to skyrocket. This 400 year trough can't last forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leaveitallbehind Posted December 22, 2017 #9 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Personally, I'm getting into tulip bulbs. It is clear from my research that the price is going to skyrocket. This 400 year trough can't last forever. Very shrewd investment - but be careful not to tip your hand for fear of a market flood of greedy me-toers! One more "pet rock" windfall opportunity down the drain if that happens......:D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsrdsrdsr Posted December 22, 2017 #10 Share Posted December 22, 2017 I doubt that a crash in bitcoins would make much of a difference. Surely most of the people into bitcoins are in either in small amounts, or with their "investment/gambling" funds. The number of people who would be ruined by a bitcoin crash compared with the number who would be scarcely affected must surely be tiny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare Hlitner Posted December 22, 2017 #11 Share Posted December 22, 2017 My suspicion is that the overwhelming majority of cruisers have no clue as to what is bitcoin (or other digital currency). Digital currency is still not well known or understood except by some speculators and those who do some transactions on the Dark Web. Looking back at past history it does not seem that short term market fluctuations have a major impact on the cruise lines. But history does tell us that major market swings do impact bookings and that world events came have a huge impact. Consider that Renaissance Cruise Lines (we loved that line) went bankrupt partially because of the impact that September 11 events had on travel. As long time (over forty years) active travelers we have learned to take advantage of events to snag some great deals. I also think that the rapid expansion in the cruise industry has had a huge impact on pricing. Competition has forced the mass market cruise lines to market low prices and all kinds of promotions. We actually pay less (per passenger day) for many cruises now....than we did 30 years ago. But this has taken a toll onboard with many cut-backs...some subtle and others pretty obvious to experienced cruisers. I could fill a long post with the cut-backs over the years...the most obvious being in the area of food. Hank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cb at sea Posted December 22, 2017 #12 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Bitcoin is a dream someone has....and if you invest...you're investing in THEIR dream...there is NOTHING physical to invest in....it's not backed by anything, but the inventor's dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tip Posted December 23, 2017 #13 Share Posted December 23, 2017 At little off topic, BUT the only thing that would impact cruising for us would be the health of me darling wife or me.;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
navybankerteacher Posted December 23, 2017 Author #14 Share Posted December 23, 2017 My suspicion is that the overwhelming majority of cruisers have no clue as to what is bitcoin (or other digital currency).... /quote] Given the extraordinary run up in "value", my suspicion is that the overwhelming majority of "investors" in bitcoin also have no clue as to what is bitcoin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare MicCanberra Posted December 23, 2017 #15 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I hope not. This Bitcoin is nut IMHO. I wish people would learn the lessons of the past. But I guess they don't. Keith Some people don't learn from history. Anyone want to buy some tulips? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare Hlitner Posted December 23, 2017 #16 Share Posted December 23, 2017 My suspicion is that the overwhelming majority of cruisers have no clue as to what is bitcoin (or other digital currency).... /quote] Given the extraordinary run up in "value", my suspicion is that the overwhelming majority of "investors" in bitcoin also have no clue as to what is bitcoin. ROFL. A couple of weeks ago we were on the Celebrity Reflection when Bitcoin went crazy with its runup. DW heard about it and asked if we had any money invested in Bitcoin (the answer is no). I explained to her that the concept of an unbacked digital currency made no sense to me and we had no money in Bitcoin. I also told her that since Bitcoin is a purse speculative currency it was not something that would spark my interest. In the past week the value has plunged around 30%. Next week who knows....maybe up 20%, perhaps down 50%. This is not an item for "investors" but simply something for speculators. Hank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sail7seas Posted December 23, 2017 #17 Share Posted December 23, 2017 ROFL. A couple of weeks ago we were on the Celebrity Reflection when Bitcoin went crazy with its runup. DW heard about it and asked if we had any money invested in Bitcoin (the answer is no). I explained to her that the concept of an unbacked digital currency made no sense to me and we had no money in Bitcoin. I also told her that since Bitcoin is a purse speculative currency it was not something that would spark my interest. In the past week the value has plunged around 30%. Next week who knows....maybe up 20%, perhaps down 50%. This is not an item for "investors" but simply something for speculators. Hank Hank, I, like so many others heard off tthe run up and tthankfully, tuned out and paid it no mind......... I was happy (for me)about that when I saw how fa st it dropped again. the 'market has been zooming as many of us are aware and the up up up in the value of IRA's, 401K's surely is good news t for those in discretionary spending businesses. :) When their porrtfolio rises in value, one is more apt to buy costly cruises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare cbr663 Posted December 24, 2017 #18 Share Posted December 24, 2017 At little off topic, BUT the only thing that would impact cruising for us would be the health of me darling wife or me.;) That is tops on our list also. A family member's health is currently also impacting our cruising. The current social climate in the USA has us deciding that we will not be visiting nor sailing out of any USA port for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldubs Posted December 24, 2017 #19 Share Posted December 24, 2017 I doubt that a crash in bitcoins would make much of a difference. Surely most of the people into bitcoins are in either in small amounts, or with their "investment/gambling" funds. The number of people who would be ruined by a bitcoin crash compared with the number who would be scarcely affected must surely be tiny. I hope you are right, but I fear a lot of people heard the hype and jumped on this late. Of course, the late comers are the ones who will take a beating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lbjen Posted December 24, 2017 #20 Share Posted December 24, 2017 The new tax law has put the brakes on our vacation spending, thanks to living in a state with very high property taxes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
navybankerteacher Posted December 24, 2017 Author #21 Share Posted December 24, 2017 The new tax law has put the brakes on our vacation spending, thanks to living in a state with very high property taxes. It does seem that residents of states like CT, NY, IL, and CA (among others) with relatively high local income and property taxes are going to have to rethink discretionary spending - especially if some of their income is from real estate commissions - sales of higher valued properties must be seriously impacted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marchie1053 Posted December 24, 2017 #22 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Personally, I'm getting into tulip bulbs. It is clear from my research that the price is going to skyrocket. This 400 year trough can't last forever. I have higher aspirations - it's why I invest via a Hedge Fund ... :* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirtyDawg Posted December 24, 2017 #23 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Personally, I'm getting into tulip bulbs. It is clear from my research that the price is going to skyrocket. This 400 year trough can't last forever. I've got some South Sea Company shares to sell you.;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buggins0402 Posted December 24, 2017 #24 Share Posted December 24, 2017 I’ve been waiting for the 3x leveraged Bitcoin ETF before I jump in. :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iancal Posted December 24, 2017 #25 Share Posted December 24, 2017 (edited) In addition to currency fluctuations, we watch market fluctuations in price. As a result we typically book inside the final payment window and only when the pricing becomes attractive to us. We typically follow pricing on two or three ships on a target itinerary and then push the buy button when the price fluctuates downward to our target price. A bit like the stock market actually. Plus, we always have a back up plan just in case we cannot snag what we want. Edited December 24, 2017 by iancal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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