PRINCESS SHIPS & CORONA VIRUS

[capriccio]

4 hours ago, auldlassie said:

Now total of passengers on this ship has jumped overnight from 63 or 64 to 130 (130-ish as figures not yet finally confirmed) more than double. Very worrying indeed, yet the Japanese health minister has been quoted today as saying they "might have to test everyone on the ship" . No kidding? That should have been done a long time ago, right at the start. Self-reporting is clearly not sufficient. 

 

Japan's chief government spokesman (in the Washington Post this morning) said:

 

Despite growing calls to test everyone on board the ship, Japan’s chief government spokesman Yoshihide Suga said on Monday that under current circumstances, that would be “difficult.”

 

There was no additional information on what the difficulties might be.

[fragilek]

2 minutes ago, capriccio said:

 

Japan's chief government spokesman (in the Washington Post this morning) said:

 

Despite growing calls to test everyone on board the ship, Japan’s chief government spokesman Yoshihide Suga said on Monday that under current circumstances, that would be “difficult.”

 

There was no additional information on what the difficulties might be.

 Now that brings the next question if Japan cannot test 5000 people over a 2 week period how has Wuhan been able to get its testing done to produce its stats

[ilikeanswers]

13 minutes ago, fragilek said:

 Now that brings the next question if Japan cannot test 5000 people over a 2 week period how has Wuhan been able to get its testing done to produce its stats

 

China is a little bit ahead since they have been testing from December. Add to that the they are working all the healthcare workers pretty much 24/7, so I suspect the pathology unit is being worked just as hard. I just hope no one screwing up the tests due to fatigue.

[sunbrookgal]

Just wondering. I see people walking about  on the Diamond. Intermingling on the promenade deck. With that, how does one calculate a 14 day exposure period? I read where the masks are not 100% effective. Hey I'm just a person with questions,, 

Edited February 10, 2020 by sunbrookgal
speling

[RMMariner]

 

10 minutes ago, dearinger said:

 

Thank you for this! Someone at least is capable of reading the facts. 

Wow, the amount of misinformation on here is shocking. Please don't spread around a bunch of rumors unless it actually comes from a health authority. Your radio hosts and facebook posts are not a reliable source of information. 

Agreed.

 

No longer going to bother with this thread. The level of discourse continues to descend.

[mayleeman]

Just now, RMMariner said:

 

Agreed.

 

No longer going to bother with this thread. The level of discourse continues to descend.

 

Good idea. I am getting so exhausted trying just to keep up with notifications on crnv (my own abbreviation) threads that I am losing track of dress code and tipping threads! "Unfollow" here I come!

[fragilek]

14 minutes ago, dearinger said:

 

Thank you for this! Someone at least is capable of reading the facts. 

Wow, the amount of misinformation on here is shocking. Please don't spread around a bunch of rumors unless it actually comes from a health authority. Your radio hosts and facebook posts are not a reliable source of information. 

 Agreed a lot of stuff is just speculation - I don't mind it being put on here, just a bracket to say rumor next to it would be nice.  However, some stuff that gets posted on line comes from science via journals or from those of us who worked in that field all our life.  And useful info from others - engineers, medical staff too.  Not all of it alarming sometimes it can be reassuring information that is posted (eg aircon cabin info).  It all helps to be ahead of the game - governments take action cautiously, which  I agree with them , is the only way they can without causing panic.  I bet some on here that read some info and it helped them choose to bale from HAL or Diamond sailing are now glad they did.  Some others may have used some info to feel more reassured about cruising in other regions.

 

On saying that it should be obvious that the info on here should never be used to go against your own governments or doctors advice. 

[fragilek]

2 hours ago, Pushka said:

Just commenting on 2. I’d say that only very seriously ill patients are now going to hospital so that may explain the change in death rate. Some report manageable symptoms, others mild and some, no symptoms at all. Just a guess really. So those might not even enter into the statistics. 

 I have managed to verify what the 20% number is - it is 20% of cases followed to completion - either cure or death- have resulted in death 

[KL Smith]

10 hours ago, ColoradoMom!! said:

Ummmm, no, Nbist and I disembarked less than 2 weeks ago, and we’re just trying to be helpful.

 

 

Just to clarify, I do appreciate the input - thank you!

 

My reference to the month ago period was based on the fact that your cruise ended 2 weeks ago but began about a month ago. And based on what Nbist wrote....

 

"We were recently on this cruise. There were a large number of Asian passengers. Where they were from, China, Japan, US,  I have no clue. I also noticed more crew members from China on this cruise, including 1 who told us he had "just arrived for his first contract".

 

....and my understanding is that the incubation period is about 14 days,  so there would appear to be no outbreak onboard with crew or current pax.

 

So, as I left for work today I see the suitcases on the bed and ready to be filled today. We leave tomorrow and as Rear Admiral Farragut said, "Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead" 🙂

 

Sincere thanks!

[matadams4u]

33 minutes ago, fragilek said:

 Agreed a lot of stuff is just speculation - I don't mind it being put on here, just a bracket to say rumor next to it would be nice.  However, some stuff that gets posted on line comes from science via journals or from those of us who worked in that field all our life.  And useful info from others - engineers, medical staff too.  Not all of it alarming sometimes it can be reassuring information that is posted (eg aircon cabin info).  It all helps to be ahead of the game - governments take action cautiously, which  I agree with them , is the only way they can without causing panic.  I bet some on here that read some info and it helped them choose to bale from HAL or Diamond sailing are now glad they did.  Some others may have used some info to feel more reassured about cruising in other regions.

 

On saying that it should be obvious that the info on here should never be used to go against your own governments or doctors advice. 

You raise a lot of good points.  Forums such as this can be very helpful

 

-  government forecast groups use information from forums such as this to help with forecasting a number of things (google Good Judgement project University of Pennsylvania for an example)

- news organizations use forums such as this for leads

- businesses use forums such as this to develop strategies on how to address customer concerns

 

so although some of the discourse has been “noise” a lot of interesting issues have been discussed.  If you see a news article a day after I was discussed here as speculation it might not be a coincidence -  in fact in the past cruise critic has been mentioned as the source for breaking cruise news.

 

It’s been shown that a group of amateur forecasters can actually be more predictive than experts (see reference above).  
 

Although it’s helpful to keep discourse at a reasonably polite level - there has been some good insight and discussion from a lot of people with varied expertise.

[NorthwestCruiser]

7 hours ago, fragilek said:

 40 % of domestic cats carry FCoV a type of Coronavirus that mutates  in 10% of infected animals to a more deadly form FIP of the virus that is always fatal. There is no treatment or vaccine available all trials have failed so far.  Not suggesting it has any link at all just highlighting that this virus exits in many animals we come into contact with daily so it may be some time to completely identify the cause so far a few vector are under suspicion, including  bats, snakes and the pangolin

The genetics show that it is clearly from bats, perhaps with an intermediate host.   People are already slaughtering pets in China for no reason, let's not get that started here.  As the population urbanizes in China more and more people are moving into contact with areas famous for their bat caves -- although the simpler explanation is probably that people have always gotten coronaviruses from bats but are now much more mobile, so what was an occasional flu outbreak in a small hamlet that kills 5 people spreads worldwide.

[nbist]

Yes, ColoradoMom!! we were on the same cruise. As with any cruise by the time we disembarked there were a lot of coughers! We have had stuffy noses since coming home, but nothing serious. One of our travel companions though became quite sick the day she got home with flu like symptoms and a deep cough - she is a smoker. I thought the concept of the hand washing station at the buffet was good, but the water would not run more than a couple of seconds, or frequently not at all. Not sure how effective that is, especially when most people would pass it by.

 

We enjoyed this cruise, but not as much as when we did it 3 years ago. The weather, which of course Princess has no control over, put a damper on things. The crew was wonderful and probably the best that we have encountered on many cruises over the past 20 years. The passenger mix was also one to "go early, line up, and crowd in!". 😉 Originally, we thought we missed cruising and would start doing this cruise every year as a January get-away, now that we are both retired, and already had next year booked. Even before anything about the virus came out, we had decided to cancel next year because we found that when comparing our recent land-based vacations to cruising we prefer to do land-based for now.

 

KL Smith. I agree and greatly doubt that there are cases of Coronavirus on the ship. If I were in your shoes I would probably make the same decision. The current safeguards put in place on 2/7 by Princess will help to keep any potential risk down - from that point.  I really am not trying to create angst, scare you or anyone else, but your logic that since 2 weeks have gone by = no apparent outbreak is only partially correct. Crew and entertainers joined the ship at each port on our cruise (first hand knowledge: our room steward changed in Honolulu, a waiter in the Portofino joined in Hilo, an entertainer joined in Lahaina - I sat next to him on the tender back to the ship), and the crew and passengers on the 1/28 cruise were not yet subject to any travel restrictions. If new crew joined at the port stops (2/2-2/5) on the current cruise and traveled through China or Hong Kong, that would essentially push the 2 week suspected incubation period to around 2/19. 

 

There is a lot of misinformation floating around about what is happening, and it is even funny at times, e.g., death toll of 910 up to over 50,000 being reported - I am sure the truth is somewhere in the middle - but what a range! The level of panic by governments denying port calls, quarantines, etc., personally gives me pause that there may be a lot of information and truth being withheld from the general population. Many on CC purport to be experts on everything, even coronavirus, but in reality there are no experts at this time with such a fluid situation. Each person needs to examine what they believe to be the best evidence and make their own decisions. Enjoy your cruise and use proper precautions, as I am sure you already do given your cruising experience.

 

 

[KL Smith]

10 minutes ago, nbist said:

 

 EXCELLENT post Nbist!

 

Many thanks!

[TNTLAMB]

Not so sure that its bats ,its also been determined it prolly wasn't the Wuhan Wet Market but the more you read the more you wonder:  https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-chinese-wet-market-photos-2020-1#reports-indicate-that-before-the-huanan-market-closed-vendors-there-sold-seafood-meat-and-live-animals-including-chickens-donkeys-sheep-pigs-foxes-badgers-bamboo-rats-hedgehogs-and-snakes-2

 

 

 

[fragilek]

Just being seeing some of the stuff regarding the crew both on new feeds and on their twitter pages - claiming they don't feel the crew are quarantine as they still all queue up and  eat together at their buffet side by side.  It also gave info on the sick crew stating they were mainly from dining and housekeeping.  160 Indian crew are appealing to their government and WHO to intervene.

[richstowe]

14 hours ago, VK3DQ said:

 

Turn her round and take her into Sydney Australia, she should be well past the quarantine period on arrival

 

Regards

John 

Thank you for your offer on behalf of Sydney and the government of Australia . 😉

[caribill]

5 hours ago, fragilek said:

 Now that brings the next question if Japan cannot test 5000 people over a 2 week period how has Wuhan been able to get its testing done to produce its stats

 

Testing all of the people on the ship earlier than the end of the incubation period would not catch the cases that would have not developed to the point the test would find the virus. So testing everyone now, not just those who show symptoms, would be a waste of medical resources.

 

So the testing needs to be done at the end of the two week isolation time and that is what Japan is suggesting at this time.

[fragilek]

1 minute ago, caribill said:

 

Testing all of the people on the ship earlier than the end of the incubation period would not catch the cases that would have not developed to the point the test would find the virus. So testing everyone now, not just those who show symptoms, would be a waste of medical resources.

 

So the testing needs to be done at the end of the two week isolation time and that is what Japan is suggesting at this time.

 agreed it wont have caught everyone straight away- I would have thought the safest plan would have been a 3 day rolling  testing and removal of everyone who has a positive result. This would  perhaps limit any further cross contamination a lot more than may/may not be happening especially as we are now hearing the crew situation.   Yes it would have taken more resource and been expensive but may end up saving money as perhaps less people overall would need isolation and medical help.  We will never know  the answer to that, and I think the discussions over wither the isolation  and testing plan for passengers and especially the crew was optimal will go on for years.

[Sunny AZ Girl]

5 hours ago, mayleeman said:

 

Good idea. I am getting so exhausted trying just to keep up with notifications on crnv (my own abbreviation) threads that I am losing track of dress code and tipping threads! "Unfollow" here I come!

I am still following here just to keep up with any new developments.  However, trying to not to jump to any conclusions when something new is posted unless it came from several reputable sources.  Too easy to get caught up in the panic!  I did Unfollow the other long thread that was saying much of the same thing.  I think some of these threads should be merged.

[SunNFunCruzer]

3 hours ago, caribill said:

 

Testing all of the people on the ship earlier than the end of the incubation period would not catch the cases that would have not developed to the point the test would find the virus. So testing everyone now, not just those who show symptoms, would be a waste of medical resources.

 

So the testing needs to be done at the end of the two week isolation time and that is what Japan is suggesting at this time.

 

I agree with this.  It's my understanding that the virus can lay dormant for up to 14 days in a person's system.

 

If a husband and wife are together in a cabin and the wife doesn't start showing symptoms until the 12th-14th day, at which point she has a fever and starts coughing, spreading virus droplets in the cabin. The husband could then, theoretically, inhale a droplet of the virus and become infected on her 12th-14th day. If it then takes him 12-14 days to show symptoms, you'd need a 28-30 day quarantine to make sure that everyone was clear.  

 

The same would be true for others commingling out on deck. Or those chatting over the rail in adjacent balcony cabins. If the virus becomes "airborne" and is transmitted later in someones 14 day cycle, then a whole new 14 day cycle would have to begin to make sure there was no cross-contamination/virus spread.  

 

It seems to me that they would need to quarantine everyone who came, or could have come, in to contact with an infected person for 14 days after the last infected person is diagnosed.

 

Many of those people are going to go to hotels and get in to cabs an in to planes.  It's prudent to exercise caution.
 

[barbaraanne]

NBC news just reported that the incubation period is now up to 24 days.

[barbaraanne]

We have 9 days left to cancel our Feb 22 Eastern Caribbean sailing on Sky out of Fort Lauderdale.   While I am not worried about any cases in the Caribbean, anything is possible in the next two weeks.  I can use our cancel for any reason insurance to get 100% of our cruise and Princess air applied to a future cruise.  If you were scheduled to sail on Feb 22 anywhere, would you risk it, or use your Princess cruise credit to go later in time?  If one passenger happens to be carrying the virus, we could be stuck like poor people on the Diamond.  

[GJCruiser]

17 minutes ago, barbaraanne said:

NBC news just reported that the incubation period is now up to 24 days.

I hope they have an accurate source. Nothing from JMH or Princess on this.

[SunNFunCruzer]

13 minutes ago, barbaraanne said:

We have 9 days left to cancel our Feb 22 Eastern Caribbean sailing on Sky out of Fort Lauderdale.   While I am not worried about any cases in the Caribbean, anything is possible in the next two weeks.  I can use our cancel for any reason insurance to get 100% of our cruise and Princess air applied to a future cruise.  If you were scheduled to sail on Feb 22 anywhere, would you risk it, or use your Princess cruise credit to go later in time?  If one passenger happens to be carrying the virus, we could be stuck like poor people on the Diamond.  

 

Barbara, we are one month ahead of you, cruising 3/15.  If I were you, I would watch, read, wait and see what happens on the few cruises before yours.  That's what we are doing, although I acknowledge we have a bit more time and cushion. 

 

Worst case, cancel 8 days from now if you're not comfortable.  There is No Benefit to you to cancel now.  And maybe in a week, Caribbean ports will all be open and welcoming or maybe in a week you will see that the Caribbean Princess' noro outbreak had nothing to do with ports denying entry.  I believe it's just too soon to make a decision.  Good luck though and if you choose to go, please report back!  :-)

[Cruzinforpeace***]

18 minutes ago, barbaraanne said:

We have 9 days left to cancel our Feb 22 Eastern Caribbean sailing on Sky out of Fort Lauderdale.   While I am not worried about any cases in the Caribbean, anything is possible in the next two weeks.  I can use our cancel for any reason insurance to get 100% of our cruise and Princess air applied to a future cruise.  If you were scheduled to sail on Feb 22 anywhere, would you risk it, or use your Princess cruise credit to go later in time?  If one passenger happens to be carrying the virus, we could be stuck like poor people on the Diamond.  

We cancelled our Feb 9 on the Regal and rescheduled for July on the Caribbean Princess.  We only get 75% CC  so it’s even better that you have the 100% cc.  I posted a few pages back our reasons and I can say now I have absolutely no regrets.  My anxiety was going through the roof with the possibilities in regards to the virus and possible quarantine scenarios.  In the end, the worry wasn’t worth the risk for us.

 

We formally cancelled the day before the cruise.  We waited as long as possible hoping things might improve.

Edited February 11, 2020 by Cruzinforpeace***