What does the future of cruising look like?

[PaulMCO]

Yes but on a per person basis the OPEX of an R is much higher than the O class or upcoming A class.  Retire 2 R class ships early (note they would likely be retired anyway) for short term benefit until the A class comes online.  Again depends on how long the COVID-19 crisis lasts.

[PaulMCO]

Yes but on a per person basis the OPEX of an R is much higher than the O class or upcoming A class.  Retire 2 R class ships early (note they would likely be retired anyway) for short term benefit until the A class comes online.  Again depends on how long the COVID-19 crisis lasts.

[floridatravelersforlife]

My crystal ball shows consolidation of the lines.  With the massive debt and capital spending on new ships,  NCL is weak, but they have strong brands.  Oceania  could be absorbed by RCL  into the Azamara brands.  Same R ships, upscale, and acquiring the food service supply system at which O excels would be a benefit to RCL.  O could sell the ship in construction.  Cash flow is king.

 

On board, I see the virtual elimination of self service, disappearance of the libraries, and Hepa filters in the air system.

 

Just my humble opinion, but I am betting by buying stock when the time is right.  Cruising is still one of the bargains in travel and boomer like me love pampering. 

[ORV]

Like so many things going on right now I feel those scenarios are a major overreaction. 

 

Put down the remote and the keyboards folks, or look up how many have died this flu season and put some perspective on it. 

[Hawaiidan]

2 hours ago, floridatravelersforlife said:

My crystal ball shows consolidation of the lines.  With the massive debt and capital spending on new ships,  NCL is weak, but they have strong brands.  Oceania  could be absorbed by RCL  into the Azamara brands.  Same R ships, upscale, and acquiring the food service supply system at which O excels would be a benefit to RCL.  O could sell the ship in construction.  Cash flow is king.

 

On board, I see the virtual elimination of self service, disappearance of the libraries, and Hepa filters in the air system.

 

Just my humble opinion, but I am betting by buying stock when the time is right.  Cruising is still one of the bargains in travel and boomer like me love pampering. 

 the time was right today  RCCL was up 7%,  Carnival was up 10.5% and NCL was up 3.9%    O would never fit the RCCL business. plan.    

[StanandJim]

19 minutes ago, Hawaiidan said:

O would never fit the RCCL business. plan.    

+1

FWIW, if RCCL has not sprung for a new SHIP for Azamara, after all these years, it seems unlikely that they would  be buying an entire Cruise Line, even at distress pricing.

[pinotlover]

24/7 Yellow Journalism is winning! A, so far, minor disruption has the tin foil hat guys out proclaiming consolidation and reorganization of the cruise industry! They love to breed bad news! Come back in a month and we’ll discuss. 
 

As to the R ships and AZ, as my TA says, R ships are outdated and becoming increasingly harder sells in today’s market. They have their fans, but their numbers are dwindling. I don’t believe anyone will be adding R ships to their fleets, especially RCCL! 

[Hanoverian]

Everyone is aware of this, right?

 

https://www.seatrade-cruise.com/news/nclh-secures-additional-675m-liquidity-amid-coronavirus-uncertainty

 

 

[pinotlover]

Current LIBOR rate of ~0.72 % gives them a total rate of ~1.25%. Nearly free money, and a smart move.

 

I have lines of credit I never touch, but it’s always smart to keep them, imo, in case it’s needed. 

[Paulchili]

7 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

Current LIBOR rate of ~0.72 % gives them a total rate of ~1.25%. Nearly free money, and a smart move.

 

I have lines of credit I never touch, but it’s always smart to keep them, imo, in case it’s needed. 

Lines of credit are one thing (I have them too) - the ability to pay for them is another.

It isn't "free money" won in a lottery 😀 - if you use it you have to be able to pay it back.

Edited March 10, 2020 by Paulchili

[floridatravelersforlife]

14 hours ago, Paulchili said:

Lines of credit are one thing (I have them too) - the ability to pay for them is another.

It isn't "free money" won in a lottery 😀 - if you use it you have to be able to pay it back.

And with lines of credit, come bank mandated financial ratios which, if violated, cause creditor default, so let's see the financial results of the first three quarters of this year before we panic.

[buggins0402]

38 minutes ago, floridatravelersforlife said:

And with lines of credit, come bank mandated financial ratios which, if violated, cause creditor default, so let's see the financial results of the first three quarters of this year before we panic.

Given that the new liquidity facility was negotiated recently, it probably done with projections that take recent events into account.

[blackfoot]

I have 5 cruises booked in 2020 and into 2021. Yesterday I cancelled two cruises for 2021 that required large deposits- I prefer to hold my $ . I am concerned but not panicked for the smaller Luxury (5.5-6 star) lines and didn't want my cash exposed to their debt issues. If this all shakes out for the industry going forward I will book the same cruises.

As they say, only the strong survive- I just don't know who are the strong cruise lines.

Edited March 11, 2020 by blackfoot

[LHT28]

1 minute ago, blackfoot said:

I have 5 cruises booked in 2020 and into 2021. Yesterday I cancelled two cruises for 2021 that required large deposits- I prefer to hold my $ . I am concerned but not panicked for the smaller Luxury (5.5-6 star) lines and didn't want my cash exposed to their debt issues.

 

What lines  think they are 5.5-6 star ??

 

[blackfoot]

Read- about 6.

[Shawnino]

5 hours ago, buggins0402 said:

Given that the new liquidity facility was negotiated recently, it probably done with projections that take recent events into account.

 

Kinda.

The one thing it can't really take into account (he claims) is the share price. 

Markets are trading very irrationally right now.

A new, or old, credit facility that says "if the market cap drops below X, the new rate rises to Y" could be a serious issue. 

[TrulyBlonde]

From Twitter

Marsha Collier

 

@MarshaCollier

·

6m

 

Leaked Emails: Norwegian Cruise Lines Pressures Sales Team to Lie About #Coronavirus #travel #COVID19

[Shawnino]

20 minutes ago, TrulyBlonde said:

From Twitter

Marsha Collier

 

@MarshaCollier

·

6m

 

Leaked Emails: Norwegian Cruise Lines Pressures Sales Team to Lie About #Coronavirus #travel #COVID19

 

Holy mackerel.

[EmmaBeale]

On 3/10/2020 at 11:13 AM, Paulchili said:

In other words, you feel that Oceania’s cruises in, say this October, will be just like they were always before - no changes at all. The company will take the losses and say - tough luck but no big deal, we don’t have to make up for those losses in any way.

Stockholders be damned.

 

They won't be doing their shareholders any favours by degrading their product to a point where they have no customers.   Shares are always riskier investment.  I don't think you can expect a super fast rebound, will take time to regrow.  Otherwise the cuts will be too deep. 

[LHT28]

6 hours ago, blackfoot said:

Read- about 6.

???

What does that mean?

[buggins0402]

2 hours ago, Shawnino said:

 

Kinda.

The one thing it can't really take into account (he claims) is the share price. 

Markets are trading very irrationally right now.

A new, or old, credit facility that says "if the market cap drops below X, the new rate rises to Y" could be a serious issue. 

Things must have changed in the many years since I looked at these things... I never saw a revolver with market cap triggers (or forgetting in my old age). 

[buggins0402]

Just traveling to Europe may become more difficult:

 

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/03/11/politics/cucinelli-us-travel-restrictions-europe/index.html?__twitter_impression=true

[Wishing on a star]

I agree with EmmaBeale above.   The cruise market has been, and is, huge.  looking for more ports and building new ships, etc.    I don't think that will change.  It might take some time.  But I don't think that there has been irreparable harm to the cruise and travel industry.  People and companies can be very resourceful and rebound.  And, I believe that is what will happen here.   This is not a case of a changing industry, times, demographic, etc..  (such as the internet putting retail on the brink).  This is temporary factor.  Not an evolving and progressing factor.

 

I saw one article that said that XX percent of people are already saying that they will book a cruise. (or travel?) soon after this thing settles down.  And, I think that will happen.   I do not echo HawaiiDan...  Not that fast.   But, ineveitably....

Edited March 11, 2020 by Wishing on a star

[tocruiseguy]

1 hour ago, buggins0402 said:

Just traveling to Europe may become more difficult:

 

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/03/11/politics/cucinelli-us-travel-restrictions-europe/index.html?__twitter_impression=true

This is idiocy, the US infection rate and more importantly the number of deaths are fast approaching the numbers of several European countries.  Will the US also ban travel to US states with high infection rates such as Washington? 

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[Ragnar Danneskjold]

This is likely why NCL was down more than the other lines today.  If it is true, NCL highly likely to go BK.  Corporations convicted of a crime are liquidated.

 

https://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/coronavirus-norwegian-cruise-line-leaked-emails-show-booking-strategy-11590056

 

If I had any refundable money in an NCL property cruise, I would cancel.  If all this blows over one can always rebook.

 

Edited March 12, 2020 by Ragnar Danneskjold