What does the future of cruising look like?

[OnTheJourney]

2 minutes ago, Paulchili said:

Well, it's more about quality than quantity - it's not a race. No need or time to see or do everything. Everyone has different interests and priorities.

Just make a list of the places you most want to see and slowly work on that bucket list. The important things is to do it and not postpone as who knows what happens next in our lives.

Good luck 🙂

 

Good point! I must admit that, while I've greatly enjoyed all our international trips, some of my favorites and most memorable are in the US. It has always been a dream of mine to visit all the National Parks in Utah - and so we did that on a DIY two years ago. Another is driving across the Keys. The European trips, at times, sort of become a blur since the itineraries are often so packed (talking fully-escorted land tours or else cruises). I suspect that any DIY is perhaps more fondly recalled due to having done all the planning, etc. I'm not comfortable with planning independent travel outside the country (well, other than Canada).  

 

But, yeah, with this virus, who knows what the future of travel is? Sad thought that it might well never be the same - and could entail all sorts of regulations and restrictions. First order of business, of course, is just to survive it. 

[OnTheJourney]

Paul...did you know you're a member of this?? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travelers'_Century_Club

 

This is interesting too (you got me started now..)  https://www.quora.com/How-can-I-visit-every-country-in-the-world

Edited March 29, 2020 by OnTheJourney

[Paulchili]

13 minutes ago, OnTheJourney said:

Paul...did you know you're a member of this?? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travelers'_Century_Club

Yes and no. Their list is very liberal and lists 329 destinations.

They list places like Alaska (really USA) Tasmania (actually Australia) Prince Edward Island (Canada), Falklands (UK) etc, etc.

We only count sovereign countries recognized by UN - about 193 - give or take.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states

[OnTheJourney]

Sorry for eavesdropping..but looks like you're a big Oceania fan. Any thoughts on them compared to Viking? We get their brochures quite often but have never tried them yet. I can see why they're convenient to you since (if correct) one of their ports is SF?  For us, it means a flight to Miami for any of their sailings. We've generally gone with either RCCL or Celebrity since it's a 2-3 hr. drive to either Bayonne or Baltimore. We did Viking for the first time last March..the Northern Lights cruise that nearly grounded on the rocks. We loved it up until the events of Saturday, 3/23. So our single most exciting (if you want to call it that) travel instance thus far was probably being hoisted off the top deck of the Sky by helicopter. And yet I'd do that again in a heartbeat if it could undue what is happening now. 

Edited March 29, 2020 by OnTheJourney

[Paulchili]

9 minutes ago, OnTheJourney said:

but looks like you're a big Oceania fan. Any thoughts on them compared to Viking?

They are both very good but different. We liked Viking but definitely prefer Oceania.

Don't want to stray off topic too much but you can read some comparisons here:

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2665982-just-back-from-viking-oceanwe-miss-oceania/?tab=comments#comment-57551275

I remember following reports about that Viking cruise - quite an adventure.

Edited March 29, 2020 by Paulchili

[susiesan]

The future of cruising may be no ships sailing from US ports. If the cruise lines have to downsize and mothball their large ships, they may decide to just sail oversees. If they get some "bailout" money from the countries where the corporations are based they may thank those countries by supporting them. This would mean no more Caribbean cruises from Miami. No more Alaska cruises.    Anyone wanting to cruise will have to fly to an international port to board a ship.

[StanandJim]

6 minutes ago, susiesan said:

. If they get some "bailout" money from the countries where the corporations are based they may thank those countries by supporting them

You obviously have no idea where the ships are registered.

The "Countries" and I use the word loosely are  Liberia, the Bahamas, Bermuda and the Solomon Islands.

None of them will ever make a significant contribution.

 

 

[OnTheJourney]

1 hour ago, Paulchili said:

They are both very good but different. We liked Viking but definitely prefer Oceania.

Don't want to stray off topic too much but you can read some comparisons here:

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2665982-just-back-from-viking-oceanwe-miss-oceania/?tab=comments#comment-57551275

I remember following reports about that Viking cruise - quite an adventure.

 

Thanks. I"ll check out that thread. I'd be more apt to try them if they had a closer port. We go more for the itinerary anyway, so depends moreso on that, but convenience is nice too. 

[susiesan]

1 minute ago, StanandJim said:

You obviously have no idea where the ships are registered.

The "Countries" and I use the word loosely are  Liberia, the Bahamas, Bermuda and the Solomon Islands.

None of them will ever make a significant contribution.

 

 

Where ships are flagged and where corporations are located are 2 different things.  NCLH is domiciled in Bermuda. They may decide that to keep the tax dollars flowing in Bermuda may help NCLH arrange financing to keep some of the ships sailing. Carnival Corp is registered in Panama. Panama has money. RCCL is registered in Liberia, they may not make it.

[OnTheJourney]

21 minutes ago, susiesan said:

The future of cruising may be no ships sailing from US ports. If the cruise lines have to downsize and mothball their large ships, they may decide to just sail oversees. If they get some "bailout" money from the countries where the corporations are based they may thank those countries by supporting them. This would mean no more Caribbean cruises from Miami. No more Alaska cruises.    Anyone wanting to cruise will have to fly to an international port to board a ship.

 

Your point is well taken and certainly a possibility I suppose. All bets are off at present. Some 'first time cruisers' may decide instead to become 'never cruisers' based on what has been happening. Then, too, you may have limitations placed on age without doctor permission. It won't be any sort of quick recovery for the industry - especially without any federal funding as part of the stimulus package. I'd think that pre-embarkation health screenings and such might become the norm. Hard to tell. Any news and events - perhaps even crises - can quickly become 'old' news (and thus somewhat discarded or have less lasting impact) sooner than we would expect. 

Edited March 29, 2020 by OnTheJourney

[susiesan]

I believe that cruising in the future will no longer be for the masses, only for upper income elites and wealthy retirees. When the supply of ships goes down as cruise lines either go under or have to shrink their fleet size, the prices will go up. No more 7 day Caribbean cruises for $700. No more Alaska cruises for the family at an affordable rate. No more Disney cruises for middle class Americans. Cruising will no longer be affordable for the majority of people around the world.

[LHT28]

9 minutes ago, OnTheJourney said:

 

Thanks. I"ll check out that thread. I'd be more apt to try them if they had a closer port. We go more for the itinerary anyway, so depends moreso on that, but convenience is nice too. 

We sailed from NYC  on Oceania if you are only willing to sail from ports close to home

You could probably  drive there  or a short flight

For us  flying to  an embarkation port is usually required

YMMV

 

[StanandJim]

11 minutes ago, susiesan said:

Where ships are flagged and where corporations are located are 2 different things.  NCLH is domiciled in Bermuda. They may decide that to keep the tax dollars flowing in Bermuda may help NCLH arrange financing to keep some of the ships sailing. Carnival Corp is registered in Panama. Panama has money. RCCL is registered in Liberia, they may not make it.

I assure you that none of the Countries which you reference have acted as flags of convenience in order to encourage maritime commerce nor to benefit the corporations which use their registry.

In the best case scenario the larger Cruise Lines, who have better legal representation MIGHT be able to arrange a moratorium on registry fees. 

As this situation evolves, there will also come a time when a gigantic amount of venture capitol will be looking for an outlet.  That may save the existing Lines.  

Edited March 29, 2020 by StanandJim

[susiesan]

But can the cruise lines last as long as they can be saved? Unless they are able to get their debt payments suspended, with no revenue coming in no business can survive for very long. I am a small business owner myself, still open during all of this, but if my customers dry up and don't continue to place orders or stop paying me for invoices and merchandise previously sent then I will be out of business. I happen to be debt free but there is still payroll to bee made. No money coming in, no money going out.

[clo]

3 hours ago, susiesan said:

I believe that cruising in the future will no longer be for the masses, only for upper income elites and wealthy retirees. When the supply of ships goes down as cruise lines either go under or have to shrink their fleet size, the prices will go up. No more 7 day Caribbean cruises for $700. No more Alaska cruises for the family at an affordable rate. No more Disney cruises for middle class Americans. Cruising will no longer be affordable for the majority of people around the world.

That's okay, right? Things change?

[Waynetor]

The way I see it is IF one of the big 3 went out of business and the economy/demand returned then in the short turn cost of cruising would go up but someone would likely buy up the better ships from the bankrupt company for huge discount off market value and start a new business just like Oceania did with the Renaissance ships.  The loss of some older ships not worth buying and the reduction of ships on order will reduce supply but not enough to make cruising solely exclusive to the wealthy. 

 

I would think any company that survives this downturn will be taking a long look at any options they have on new ships wanting to get a better look at demand before being fully committed.

[OnTheJourney]

5 hours ago, LHT28 said:

We sailed from NYC  on Oceania 

 

 

You are correct...I had forgotten about departures out of NYC. Should have remembered since we have gotten many of their brochures. 

[OnTheJourney]

1 hour ago, clo said:

That's okay, right? Things change?

 

Well...yeah..it's ok if you're one of those "upper income elites"!!  Otherwise it leaves out a LOT of people that might have saved money for years to go on a cruise. 

It's hard to speculate on exactly what might happen at the present time - way too many variables. 

Edited March 29, 2020 by OnTheJourney

[CintiPam]

12 hours ago, OnTheJourney said:

I'm not comfortable with planning independent travel outside the country (well, other than Canada).  

I am sorry you feel this way.  We started traveling regularly to Europe annually DIY on our once a year vacation from work only when our younger child started college in 2002 so certainly not long enough ago to approach anywhere near the number of countries Paul has visited.  (Like many others, we used Rick Steves’s guidebooks for inspiration and cost savings initially.). And our very first cruise ever was in 2008, so also not at all that long ago.  (Our money before that was devoted to our children’s education.)
 

Only in the last two years since we both now are retired fully have we taken more than one lengthy trip abroad per year 

 

Anyway, the only reason I picked this comment out of all the postings on this informative thread is to encourage you (once we are past this crisis) to consider DIY outside of Canada and the USA.  We are so lucky to speak the language the rest of the travel world uses most other than the native language and you easily can book online in English for car rentals, train reservations, hotels and restaurants. (Back when we travelled annually PK, pre-kids, I remember writing letters on Airmail stationery to book hotel reservations!) 

 

Best wishes to you and yours for all your travels, regardless of where you choose to go.

[Petoonya]

Reading all the comments here, am I being naive and self-centered again (I'll remain ashamed) hoping that the 148 passenger Wind Spirit built in 1987 might do Tahiti next November? Or Regatta might possibly do Tahiti-SF next April/21? Realize the future with coronavirus is completely up in the air but what's the thought on small older ships survival?

This is a ridiculous question as answers are speculation but what is your speculation all the same?

[Shawnino]

21 hours ago, susiesan said:

I believe that cruising in the future will no longer be for the masses, only for upper income elites and wealthy retirees. When the supply of ships goes down as cruise lines either go under or have to shrink their fleet size, the prices will go up. No more 7 day Caribbean cruises for $700. No more Alaska cruises for the family at an affordable rate. No more Disney cruises for middle class Americans. Cruising will no longer be affordable for the majority of people around the world.

 

Emphasis mine.

 

So what of the 4000+ pax wedding-cake ships?

Elites aren't going to pay en masse to go on those ships as is.

Scrap?

Re-fit, which requires new capital?

It think it's far more likely they'll just move further downmarket and go after the Great Unwashed more aggressively.

[Hanoverian]

Per "Cruise Industry News" this morning, March 30, MSC Cruises extends its halt through May 29.  P&O Cruises and Cunard Line are extending their pause in operations for all sailings up to and including May 15.  These halts have to put pressure on the other lines.

[LHT28]

14 minutes ago, Hanoverian said:

These halts have to put pressure on the other lines.

 I think  the Pandemic  will put pressure on other lines

There  will be rolling cancellations

As the sail dates approach the  cancellations  will start maybe  a month at a time

No ships will be sailing  before the summer  in my opinion

Time will tell

[Hanoverian]

Could not agree more, LHT28.  We should see more cancellations by tomorrow, I bet.  There is no place to go and no way to fly to anywhere.

 

Edited March 30, 2020 by Hanoverian

[jonthomas]

This question has probably been answered numerous times.

 

Has Oceania extended the final payment deadlines?

 

We have a cruise in Dec/Jan of 2020. Final payment Sept. 

 

Silly to give final payment in Sept if ships are not sailing and they wont be in my HO.