What does the future of cruising look like?

[Hanoverian]

Seabourn just cancelled through May 14.

[deadzone1003]

The immediate future looks very bleak.  The cruise industry will not start returning to normal until a vaccine is available where all passengers and crew members must have this vaccine before boarding.  Timeline for this vaccine is anywhere from 6 months to 1 year if there is even a vaccine.  Hey, it would be a minimum of 18 months or more if the bureaucrats were in charged.  Another path is if everyone gets sick with coronavirus and we have herd immunity, but that will take at least 2 years. 

 

The biggest problem is what will happen to the economy.  Stopping the economy (which is basically what is occurring) is similiar to stop eating/drinking.  The longer it goes the worst the effects of this starvation.  No matter what happens there will be a slight recession if we can get back to work soon.  If we stop for a longer period, we will be entertaining the possibility of a depression, much worst than the 2008 financial crisis and look what happen to the cruise industry back then.   This is in addition to the vaccine scenerio mentioned above.

 

If I sound so pessimistic, I'm not.  I have a cruise on the Riviera on 12/3/20.  I expect a vaccine in about 6 months.  Within 90 days, the coronavirus will be treated primarily on an outpatient basis with Hydroxychloroquine, Z-pak, and zinc.  You really don't want to get to the ventilator stage - people who reach that stage and who survive tend to be younger, much younger.  Here is one wild prediction:  2020-21 Carribean season will have higher port fees plus 1 5-day packet of the above drugs for each passenger and crew member for each port.  Basically, we will bribe each port with the drugs needed to treat their population if they get infected plus higher port fees.

[Paulchili]

23 minutes ago, deadzone1003 said:

I expect a vaccine in about 6 months.

I think that is too optimistic - 12 to 18 months is more realistic IMO.

 

23 minutes ago, deadzone1003 said:

Within 90 days, the coronavirus will be treated primarily on an outpatient basis with Hydroxychloroquine, Z-pak, and zinc.

Source? I know there are trials but nobody knows at this point if that works.

[LHT28]

27 minutes ago, deadzone1003 said:

The immediate future looks very bleak.  The cruise industry will not start returning to normal until a vaccine is available where all passengers and crew members must have this vaccine before boarding.

Is this  fact, opinion, speculation or wishful  thinking??

[deadzone1003]

I believed the title of topic is about one's expectation of the future.  I didn't looked into a crystal ball.  

 

As for the vaccine, 12-18 months would probably be normal.  However, Johnson & Johnson is building a new facility in America to produce this vaccine even as their vaccine is being tested.  The President will kick those bureaucrat's asses to get them to move as fast possible, so 6-9 months is what I expect.

 

As for "Is this fact, opinion, speculation or wishful thinkin??", it is speculation.  It is also logical.  Why do you think other countries are turning away cruiseships?  If you are the leader of the that country, when would you let these cruiseships back in?  Even if the coronavirus dies down during this summer (unfortunately, it will be quite active in the Southern Hemisphere), the cruise industry has such a black-eye as being a petri dish for coronavirus, no leader will let cruiseships into their country unless their asses are covered, meaning everyone has to be vaccinated and therefore unlikely to pass the disease into their country.

[Paulchili]

1 minute ago, deadzone1003 said:

The President will kick those bureaucrat's asses to get them to move as fast possible, so 6-9 months is what I expect.

Like he has done with masks, PPE and ventilators (and everything else in anticipation of this epidemic)? 😀

[ranchomirage777]

6 minutes ago, deadzone1003 said:

I believed the title of topic is about one's expectation of the future.  I didn't looked into a crystal ball.  

 

As for the vaccine, 12-18 months would probably be normal.  However, Johnson & Johnson is building a new facility in America to produce this vaccine even as their vaccine is being tested.  The President will kick those bureaucrat's asses to get them to move as fast possible, so 6-9 months is what I expect.

 

As for "Is this fact, opinion, speculation or wishful thinkin??", it is speculation.  It is also logical.  Why do you think other countries are turning away cruiseships?  If you are the leader of the that country, when would you let these cruiseships back in?  Even if the coronavirus dies down during this summer (unfortunately, it will be quite active in the Southern Hemisphere), the cruise industry has such a black-eye as being a petri dish for coronavirus, no leader will let cruiseships into their country unless their asses are covered, meaning everyone has to be vaccinated and therefore unlikely to pass the disease into their country.

+1

[pinotlover]

Heard from my ship’s medical officer acquaintance via my friend, his neighbor. When the ships went down, the ship’s senior officers, including the medical officers, went to corporate or regional hqs to work on new operating procedures post pandemic. Nothing finalized yet. Early general approvals:

 

1. All cruisers will receive a list of mandatory ( not recommended) vaccinations for that cruise and/ or countries visited. Shot records examined at check in. Any Vaccination not there, no boarding. No exceptions.

 

2.  All passengers will likewise be checked before boarding. Visually ill, fevered, excessively coughing passengers, etc, will be denied boarding.

 

Large feedback is also coming from some of the countries regularly visited . Arriving airline passengers may be temporarily quarantined, or actually segregated, to be checked before passing through immigrations. Sick arriving passengers may not be allowed entry, but immediately quarantined in a limbo state. Immigrations might start requiring vaccinations records likewise along with passports and visas. Countries with Visa requirements will probably be requiring full certified vaccinations records as part of the new Visa process. Expect this for the US also. 
 

Those countries are wanting the airlines to keep the visually sick off the planes. Be interesting to see how this plays out. Depending upon how all this plays out, arriving the day of the cruise may become totally impractical. Expect long delays at Immigration.

 

Countries will become far more diligent determining which cruise ships they allow to dock  based upon the reports filed before docking.

 

Those that believe things will just go back to” how they were “ are fooling themselves.

[Paulchili]

8 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

Heard from my ship’s medical officer acquaintance via my friend, his neighbor. When the ships went down, the ship’s senior officers, including the medical officers, went to corporate or regional hqs to work on new operating procedures post pandemic. Nothing finalized yet. Early general approvals:

 

1. All cruisers will receive a list of mandatory ( not recommended) vaccinations for that cruise and/ or countries visited. Shot records examined at check in. Any Vaccination not there, no boarding. No exceptions.

 

2.  All passengers will likewise be checked before boarding. Visually ill, fevered, excessively coughing passengers, etc, will be denied boarding.

 

Large feedback is also coming from some of the countries regularly visited . Arriving airline passengers may be temporarily quarantined, or actually segregated, to be checked before passing through immigrations. Sick arriving passengers may not be allowed entry, but immediately quarantined in a limbo state. Immigrations might start requiring vaccinations records likewise along with passports and visas. Countries with Visa requirements will probably be requiring full certified vaccinations records as part of the new Visa process. Expect this for the US also. 
 

Those countries are wanting the airlines to keep the visually sick off the planes. Be interesting to see how this plays out. Depending upon how all this plays out, arriving the day of the cruise may become totally impractical. Expect long delays at Immigration.

 

Countries will become far more diligent determining which cruise ships they allow to dock  based upon the reports filed before docking.

 

Those that believe things will just go back to” how they were “ are fooling themselves.

I am glad that the vast majority of my travels is behind me and not ahead of me.

[pinotlover]

Another thing I forgot! Everyone knows effective 2021 US citizens will need a new permit from ETIAS to travel to Europe. Expect to submit a vaccination certificate with all required shots to get that permit.

[KS&JW]

On 3/29/2020 at 6:57 AM, OnTheJourney said:

Paul...did you know you're a member of this?? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travelers'_Century_Club

 

This is interesting too (you got me started now..)  https://www.quora.com/How-can-I-visit-every-country-in-the-world

 

I keep track here: https://mtp.travel

 

[clo]

1 hour ago, deadzone1003 said:

If I sound so pessimistic, I'm not.  I have a cruise on the Riviera on 12/3/20.  I expect a vaccine in about 6 months.  Within 90 days, the coronavirus will be treated primarily on an outpatient basis with Hydroxychloroquine, Z-pak, and zinc. 

You may want to read this if you haven't:

 

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/03/didier-raoult-hydroxychloroquine-plaquenil.html

[deadzone1003]

Paul,

 

With this disease, you don't want to get to the ventilator stage.  WHO says people who get to the ventilator stage has a 50% chance of surviving plus you will have permanent lung damage.  An ER person in New Orleans mention in his email to other doctors, said it was around 85% death rate worldwide if you get to the ventilator stage, he mentions it was around 70% death rate in Seattle.  Who cares if we don't have enough ventilators - if your option is death or permanent lung damage.  Actually, we do have enough, maybe not enough for the most extreme prediction which are based on the WHO death rate estimate which are totally ludicrous.  Right now, New York City is not utilizing all of their ventilators and, probably, will not as they are using Hydroxychloroquine with Azithromycin for incoming patients, off label for the last week, but with FDA approval as of yesterday - basically to make sure you don't get to the ventilator stage.  There is hope for the economy if we could get back to work as soon as possible.

 

So, if you want to travel in the immediate future, you may have to kick some bureaucrats' ass.

[Paulchili]

So if you or one of your relatives got to the ventilator stage you would say - forget it, don’t bother. Have I got it right?

[deadzone1003]

1 minute ago, clo said:

You may want to read this if you haven't:

 

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/03/didier-raoult-hydroxychloroquine-plaquenil.html

That is the treatment they are using in New York City and the USA plus many countries worldwide.  Why?  This is the only treatment that appears to work.  This is the protocol where it is quite ancedotal, but can save the economy (meaning your 401K) - https://www.citizenfreepress.com/breaking/giuliani-interviews-dr-zelenko-on-covid-19-treatment/

 

meaning we could treat the coronavirus as an outpatient procedure thus reducing it to a flu-like disease.

 

FYI - there were 80 lupus patients in a Wuhan hospital during the outbreak, none of them ever contracted the coronavirus.  The only common denominator was that they were Chinese and that were being treated with Hydroxychloroquine.  The Chinese told the world in mid-February that Chloroquine was effective in treating the coronavirus.  The South Koreans had heard about it earlier and added zinc.  The French Doctor used Hydroxychloroquine plus Azithromycin for his small study.  Dr. Vladimir Zelenko combine the 3 drugs but treated his patient as early as possible.  He had already 699 patients, but no deaths - all ancedotal, but I like those odds.

[pinotlover]

I was watching some speakers on Bloomberg. They basically said the ( stock) markets are now basically priced for an early May “ get back to work” date. If that date slides, or even appears to slide, much, the markets will give up another 7,000-10,000 points as quickly as they did the first round. At a 12,000-14,000 Dow, along with the impact on the real estate markets, most of we retirees won’t be able to cruise, even if the ships can again!

[deadzone1003]

3 minutes ago, Paulchili said:

So if you or one of your relatives got to the ventilator stage you would say - forget it, don’t bother. Have I got it right?

You have to realize that most of the people who survive the ventilator stage are going to be young, meaning the average person on this website has a survival rate of approaching 0.  Best to never get to this stage is the goal.  If they were my relatives, I would tell them the odds before they get to this stage and the decision is up to them, sort of like do not resusitate.

[clo]

7 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

At a 12,000-14,000 Dow, along with the impact on the real estate markets, most of we retirees won’t be able to cruise, even if the ships can again!

I'm glad to see that someone can do that math.

[deadzone1003]

8 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

I was watching some speakers on Bloomberg. They basically said the ( stock) markets are now basically priced for an early May “ get back to work” date. If that date slides, or even appears to slide, much, the markets will give up another 7,000-10,000 points as quickly as they did the first round. At a 12,000-14,000 Dow, along with the impact on the real estate markets, most of we retirees won’t be able to cruise, even if the ships can again!

I'm hoping for an after Easter get back to work.  It will depend on supply chain of the needed drugs.

[clo]

11 minutes ago, deadzone1003 said:

https://www.citizenfreepress.com/breaking/giuliani-interviews-dr-zelenko-on-covid-19-treatment/

I check this site pretty regularly, either before reading or certainly before sharing.

 

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/citizen-free-press/

[deadzone1003]

3 minutes ago, clo said:

I check this site pretty regularly, either before reading or certainly before sharing.

 

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/citizen-free-press/

can't you judge for yourself?  Remember where we were at when Trump mentions Chloroquine.  Oh yes, that Arizona couple who ate Chloroquine Phosphate and her husband died.  They did not take a prescribed medication nor an OTC drug - they took Fish Tank Cleaner.  Just google, "coronavirus, fish tank cleaner".  Myself, I was aware of the Chinese use of Chloroquine and the French Doctor study of Hydroxychloroquine/Azitheomycin before Trump even mentions Chloroquine.  The above video gives you reasons why and how the drugs work.  It may be anedoctal, but in war we have to use the weapons we have.

[OnTheJourney]

52 minutes ago, KS&JW said:

 

I keep track here: https://mtp.travel

 

 

Cool site...thanks!  

[Hawaiidan]

4 minutes ago, deadzone1003 said:

I'm hoping for an after Easter get back to work.  It will depend on supply chain of the needed drugs.

I agree with the prognosis for patients over 60 placed on a ventilator system....  seen it  in other respiratory and acute respiratory distress people....     Your chances are single digits to survive  over 70 I am told...     Same as septic shock  in its impact.  

On a positive note Abbot Labs has made a breakthrough  in testing  bringing the turn around for diagnosis down for days to less than 15 min. .... Prototype vaccines  are already being tested way ahead of the forecast 6 month ,      GM  is making medical gear by the thousands,  US armed forces are building hospitals and setting up mobile hospitals  in days.    The country is pulling together......

 

Hey, we put men on the moon, we can lick this with good old American know how .  No one saw this coming because the chinese  kept their mouths shut...  till forced to spill the beans.   Thank God we shut down chinese travelers in Jan or we would have been like Italy ........ We have the gift of knowledge derived from all the prior months of others......

[Paulchili]

15 minutes ago, deadzone1003 said:

I'm hoping for an after Easter get back to work.  It will depend on supply chain of the needed drugs.

What planet are you living on? Things must be a lot better there than they are here in the US.

We have already double the number of cases in China and are NOWHERE near the apex with new hot spots popping up daily.

That is with the number of actual cases grossly under counted due to lack of tests and testing.

If people go back early and social distancing is relaxed, restaurants, bars open many more people will get sick - how is that going to help the economy?

[TrulyBlonde]

1 hour ago, Paulchili said:

Like he has done with masks, PPE and ventilators (and everything else in anticipation of this epidemic)? 😀

 

6 minutes ago, Hawaiidan said:

I agree with the prognosis for patients over 60 placed on a ventilator system....  seen it  in other respiratory and acute respiratory distress people....     Your chances are single digits to survive  over 70 I am told...     Same as septic shock  in its impact.  

On a positive note Abbot Labs has made a breakthrough  in testing  bringing the turn around for diagnosis down for days to less than 15 min. .... Prototype vaccines  are already being tested way ahead of the forecast 6 month ,      GM  is making medical gear by the thousands,  US armed forces are building hospitals and setting up mobile hospitals  in days.    The country is pulling together......

 

Hey, we put men on the moon, we can lick this with good old American know how .  No one saw this coming because the chinese  kept their mouths shut...  till forced to spill the beans.   Thank God we shut down chinese travelers in Jan or we would have been like Italy ........ We have the gift of knowledge derived from all the prior months of others......

Your Governor Newsom seems to think our President is doing a good job. Hope you stay healthy Paul. You too Dan, somehow your post was attached to Paul's

Edited March 30, 2020 by TrulyBlonde