Check out new O specials.

[mozfoz]

Its worth the time to check out if your booking has new specials. We just rebooked an Ocean View (C)  for a Balcony B4) at no cost. This is for an October sailing. Of course, as always with criusline offer, there are some conditions. in this case, it was the St. Patricks Day offer, but it did score us a balcony.

[Hawaiidan]

34 minutes ago, mozfoz said:

Its worth the time to check out if your booking has new specials. We just rebooked an Ocean View (C)  for a Balcony B4) at no cost. This is for an October sailing. Of course, as always with criusline offer, there are some conditions. in this case, it was the St. Patricks Day offer, but it did score us a balcony.

 

I am with you....  I just rebooked a cruise in sept/october and O offered me a PH for $400 more than a B3 !! saving thousands !     It is a real deal  and they are dealing.

 

[susiesan]

Unfortunately my June 26 Baltic cruise is not on the list making it more likely I will cancel for this year and do it next year 2021 assuming O stays in business. I am also looking at Viking, they have some decent deals now.

[Paulchili]

We have a B2B2B booked as 3 separate cruises on Marina in Nov - no change on any of the 3 cruises for our cat.

[jeanine]

We are booked into a category G inside cabin. My TA has told me we cannot take advantage of the 4 category upgrade. Can’t find anything on the O site that states this. If anyone knows please let me know. I would change my category to F if this is true. 
 

[LHT28]

42 minutes ago, jeanine said:

We are booked into a category G inside cabin. My TA has told me we cannot take advantage of the 4 category upgrade. Can’t find anything on the O site that states this. If anyone knows please let me know. I would change my category to F if this is true. 
 

you can check the T & C  at the bottom of the page  but also check your sailing  to see if any other conditions apply

https://www.oceaniacruises.com/special-offers/st-patricks-day-sale/

 

https://www.oceaniacruises.com/legal/promotion-terms/

[Jancruz]

2 hours ago, susiesan said:

Unfortunately my June 26 Baltic cruise is not on the list making it more likely I will cancel for this year and do it next year 2021 assuming O stays in business. I am also looking at Viking, they have some decent deals now.

Id worry more about Viking than Oceania..JMHO

Jancruz1

[mozfoz]

1 hour ago, jeanine said:

We are booked into a category G inside cabin. My TA has told me we cannot take advantage of the 4 category upgrade. Can’t find anything on the O site that states this. If anyone knows please let me know. I would change my category to F if this is true. 
 

For what it worth, was told the same thing for our cruise. I thought if I down graded to an inside and saved money, I would be upgraded at no cost to an Oceanview of higher. Not so. Went from a (C) to a (B4). It is an October cruise and I really don't care about a balcony, but it was free so why not. I was told by O, upgrades per the special, vary per cruise and category booked. Now I will transfer to my TA and get additional credits.

[susiesan]

30 minutes ago, Jancruz said:

Id worry more about Viking than Oceania..JMHO

Jancruz1

Is that because Viking is a smaller company? The other company I am somewhat concerned about is Windstar, who I have a Tahiti cruise booked with for January 2021. They are on a 60 day suspension of cruises, one of the yachts being stretched is hung up in the shipyard in Italy because that is shut down. Their schedules are very messed up. I only have a $100 deposit with Windstar and refundable award air tickets to PPT and a cancelable hotel reservation.

[Redtravel]

Love Windstar.  Did b2b in January on Star Legend before the stretch. Would rebook gladly if the schedule was firm.

[Hawaiidan]

3 hours ago, Jancruz said:

Id worry more about Viking than Oceania..JMHO

Jancruz1

yup  theyhave a huge  debt in all the new ships they ordered and  expanded at light speed.... That may bight their Norwegian butt's       O  is many years into their ships and has amortized a lot of past debt I would think..... way less exposure     Plus, Viking fares are way higher than O. limiting their market share. With the market sliding  a lot of that market share is finding their resources limited and vikings prices  no longer workable

[Hawaiidan]

2 hours ago, susiesan said:

Is that because Viking is a smaller company? The other company I am somewhat concerned about is Windstar, who I have a Tahiti cruise booked with for January 2021. They are on a 60 day suspension of cruises, one of the yachts being stretched is hung up in the shipyard in Italy because that is shut down. Their schedules are very messed up. I only have a $100 deposit with Windstar and refundable award air tickets to PPT and a cancelable hotel reservation.

I think not...Viking expanded way fast and has a huge debt in that expansion that will hurt them since they have had little time to amortize that debt...      O has  had 10 years to lower their debt exposure

[njhorseman]

15 minutes ago, Hawaiidan said:

I think not...Viking expanded way fast and has a huge debt in that expansion that will hurt them since they have had little time to amortize that debt...      O has  had 10 years to lower their debt exposure

That ignores the fact that Oceania is not an independent company. It's part of the NCLH group. While Oceania hasn't built any new ships in 8 or 9 years, both Regent Seven Seas and NCL have, and there's a big debt load associated with those very expensive new builds.

 

Because Viking is a privately held company we have no idea what their balance sheet looks like but apparently the founder and principal owner thinks it's strong enough . That remains to be seen of course.

[azdrydock]

True, we don't know the Viking debt structure but we know NCLH has been adding new ship capacity faster and greater then Viking. Been on multiple Viking and O cruises in the past two years. All of the Viking ships were 100% booked, 2 of the 3 O's were well below full capacity.

 

All lines will have to make adjustments, my guess is both Viking and NCLH will push back the new builds and NCLH will streamline operations by possibly rolling O into NCL or Regent.  

 

BTW... I have an NCL cruise booked for early next year and while my in box is deluged with messages starting with  "Our passengers health and safety is our primary....." and the one from NCL " Norwegian Cruise Line is making a nominal adjustment to its daily service charges..... "

[susiesan]

I read somewhere else on CC that once ships start sailing again the companies with the smaller ships could be in a better position to crank up faster than the companies that have nothing but behemoths. But it will depend on pricing. It has to be attractive enough to bring people back, and maybe should look at offering better prices to the first people who resume booking future cruises.

Edited March 16, 2020 by susiesan

[ORV]

I love these posts. Since I know as much or less than the prognosticators here I'll give my forecast. In a couple of months things will normalize, cruise lines and shareholders will have a bad year but survive. Yes, people will be gunshy about cruising, but enough hardcore cruisers are out there that numbers will begin to pickup. I do agree that most cruise lines will need to take a good hard look at their pricing, particularly Celebrity and Oceania. Their prices are getting out of line for the product they offer. 

 

I would like to see the numbers on NCHL adding more new ships and capacity than Viking. Last I checked Viking has been getting a couple of new ships every year, with orders in for the next few years. I have no idea of exact numbers though. 

 

Way too much doom and gloom floating around. 

[LHT28]

This is from 2 yrs ago  for Viking new builds

https://www.seatrade-cruise.com/news-headlines/viking-plans-6-more-newbuilds-pushing-cruise-orderbook-stunning-100-ships

 

Does not  even count the number of river boats that pop out each year  

Seven long ships in 2019

more to come

https://www.vikingcruisescanada.com/expeditions/cruise-destinations/great-lakes-canada/index.html

 

I do not think NCLH  even comes close  to that number in new builds across the 3 lines

 

[njhorseman]

1 hour ago, LHT28 said:

This is from 2 yrs ago  for Viking new builds

https://www.seatrade-cruise.com/news-headlines/viking-plans-6-more-newbuilds-pushing-cruise-orderbook-stunning-100-ships

 

Does not  even count the number of river boats that pop out each year  

Seven long ships in 2019

more to come

https://www.vikingcruisescanada.com/expeditions/cruise-destinations/great-lakes-canada/index.html

 

I do not think NCLH  even comes close  to that number in new builds across the 3 lines

 

Number of ships doesn't tell the full story...money does.

 

According to reports the two new Regent Seven Seas ships may have cost upwards of 500  million each.

 

The very big NCL ships like the Encore cost in the neighborhood of $1 billion each.  NCL has built 7 of them since 2010 and has 6 "Project Leonardo", which are just slightly smaller than the mega ships, on order for delivery from 2022 through 2027 at  a reported cost of $850 million each

 

Viking Ocean ships reportedly have cost about $400 million each...less than half the cost of NCL's ships and 20% less than the RSS new builds.

 

Although I can't find cost estimates for Viking's river cruise ships, given their small size common sense suggest the cost to build one is a small fraction of the cost to build an oceangoing cruise ship.

 

Then you have to consider the cost to finance the construction of these ships. I can't provide a number, but given the vast wealth of Viking's founder and principal owner, their cost to borrow may be cheaper too.

[azdrydock]

Here is a quick look at new builds:

2020 thru 2025

Viking Ocean 6 ships 930 berths ea
Viking Expedition 2 ships 375 berths ea
8 new ships 6,330 berths total

NCLH
Norwegian 4 ships 3300 berths ea
Regent    2 ships 750 berths ea
Oceania   2 ships 1200 berths ea
8 new ships 17,100 berths total

 

Past 5 years
Viking 6 new ships 5580 berths total

*NCL 4 new ships 16,239 berths total
Does not include Regent

 

Numbers come from Viking&NCL Website  and Cruise Industry News

 

Many of the river boats are not owned by Viking and the other lines. These are owned, built and subsidized by  others to generate local jobs. 

 

It harder to pin down the true costs of the ships because what you see published is often the shipyard cost. There is also an aftermarket that is considerable. 

 

 

[Jancruz]

On 3/15/2020 at 11:13 AM, susiesan said:

Is that because Viking is a smaller company? The other company I am somewhat concerned about is Windstar, who I have a Tahiti cruise booked with for January 2021. They are on a 60 day suspension of cruises, one of the yachts being stretched is hung up in the shipyard in Italy because that is shut down. Their schedules are very messed up. I only have a $100 deposit with Windstar and refundable award air tickets to PPT and a cancelable hotel reservation.

Windstar is part of HAL so not so concerned but how about Paul Gauguin..they are privately owned with only one ship..Crystal was just bought also..dont know much about that  company

Viking always wanted their money so far ahead..thats what concerned me..we will see when it all shakes out

Dont mean to worry anyone ..these are just my thoughts and no real info behind me..

Jancruz1

Edited March 16, 2020 by Jancruz

[LHT28]

23 minutes ago, azdrydock said:

Here is a quick look at new builds:

2020 thru 2025

Viking Ocean 6 ships 930 berths ea
Viking Expedition 2 ships 375 berths ea
8 new ships 6,330 berths total

 

What about the river ships  they still cost $$$ ?

 

Anyway not sure  what Viking has to do with Oceania 

I for  one will NEVER  &  I mean NEVER cruise on Viking

YMMV

[Mura]

Why do you say that, Lyn?  Just curious.  We have sailed on river boats only and after our 2012 trip decided not to return.  Our decision at the time, I think, was a good one.  But things may have changed.  We have not been tempted to try the Viking ocean trips.

 

 

[njhorseman]

35 minutes ago, Jancruz said:

but how about Paul Gauguin..they are privately owned with only one ship..

Paul Gauguin was bought  by Ponant in September 2019.

[azdrydock]

33 minutes ago, Jancruz said:

Windstar is part of HAL so not so concerned but how about Paul Gauguin..they are privately owned with only one ship..Crystal was just bought also..dont know much about that  company

Viking always wanted their money so far ahead..thats what concerned me..we will see when it all shakes out

Dont mean to worry anyone ..these are just my thoughts and no real info behind me..

Jancruz1

 

surprisingly the Viking payment schedule didnt affect bookings but according to Viking rep it stopped a lot of the fake booking shenanigans.  There were always around it  for frequent cruisers or smart TA's

Windstar is owned by Anshutz Corp, a large hospitality group 

Paul Gauguin is now part of Ponant

 

IMO both are high risk.

 

HAL is part of Carnival, If they require health certificates for the over 70''s, they are history😉

 

My guess would be some restructuring   and consolidation, some super deals to rebuild the base and a lot of complaining on CC boards.

[Doubt It]

21 hours ago, ORV said:

I love these posts. Since I know as much or less than the prognosticators here I'll give my forecast. In a couple of months things will normalize, cruise lines and shareholders will have a bad year but survive. Yes, people will be gunshy about cruising, but enough hardcore cruisers are out there that numbers will begin to pickup. I do agree that most cruise lines will need to take a good hard look at their pricing, particularly Celebrity and Oceania. Their prices are getting out of line for the product they offer. 

 

I would like to see the numbers on NCHL adding more new ships and capacity than Viking. Last I checked Viking has been getting a couple of new ships every year, with orders in for the next few years. I have no idea of exact numbers though. 

 

Way too much doom and gloom floating around. 

 

ORV, I agree with your analysis. While we do not know the future yet, your scenario seems reasonable.

 

I also concur about Celebrity and Oceania pricing.

 

It would also seem plausible is that many cruise patrons will find other vacation venues/options - this has the potential to reduce cruise bookings for the long term.

 

A couple of families were interviewed on local TV, they had cruises booked - cancelled and we videoing in from their Florida vacation homes with big smiles and well satisfied. One had said they already rebooked the house for next year.........