Predict when cruising will start again post-Coronavirus

[DiamondFour]

A glimmer of hope today. Although I have no faith in the man since his derogatory comments about cruise ships the NSW police commissioner has today stated that the lock down will last 90 days. The ban on cruise ships appears to end June 15th. So that leaves us with a glimmer of hope that maybe domestic cruises will resume by then. Although I personally think it is unlikely the chances are still in the low percentage range that cruising will resume by then. I think the government will want to give the economy a boost as quickly as they can and would probably be encouraging domestic tourism before international borders reopened. 

[Aus Traveller]

1 hour ago, DiamondFour said:

A glimmer of hope today. Although I have no faith in the man since his derogatory comments about cruise ships the NSW police commissioner has today stated that the lock down will last 90 days. The ban on cruise ships appears to end June 15th. So that leaves us with a glimmer of hope that maybe domestic cruises will resume by then. Although I personally think it is unlikely the chances are still in the low percentage range that cruising will resume by then. I think the government will want to give the economy a boost as quickly as they can and would probably be encouraging domestic tourism before international borders reopened. 

I am usually an optimist, but I see the current ban on cruise ships till 15th June, to be just that - the current ban. I can't see cruising restarting within six months and that is my optimism showing😁.

[Vader1111]

14 hours ago, DiamondFour said:

Our Spring seems reasonable. Being optimistic if as some coronavirus experts are correct that this virus will not survive the northern hemispheres summer and turns out to be a nightmare until then it may be subdued to the point that all things resume by September and October onward. By then our summer should be approaching and if the heat theory is correct then our lucky country will have survived better than others with our insurance policy of extreme heat.

If by "Our Spring" you mean September/October 2021, then I think you will be on the money.

[Kiwi Kruzer]

The “Govt” can ban cruising whenever it likes , but the decision to resume cruising will be made in Boardrooms far ,far away.
 

[By The Bay]

14 hours ago, DiamondFour said:

Our Spring seems reasonable. Being optimistic if as some coronavirus experts are correct that this virus will not survive the northern hemispheres summer and turns out to be a nightmare until then it may be subdued to the point that all things resume by September and October onward. By then our summer should be approaching and if the heat theory is correct then our lucky country will have survived better than others with our insurance policy of extreme heat.

I am more inclined to believe the experts at the W.H.O.

"You can catch COVID-19, no matter how sunny or hot the weather is. Countries with hot weather have reported cases of COVID-19."

[oskarNZ]

This is an interesting thread.  
I too am a person who will take a lot of convincing to come back to cruising.  
Not because of any one choice made by a cruiseline, but because this whole thing has highlighted the complications (more than norovirus ever could) that come from being confined to a space with a lot of other people. 
This is not something I could have foreseen myself saying and it brings me a lot of sadness that traveling with my family (the thing that filled me with the most happiness in the world) is potentially never going to look the same for many years (possibly longer for cruising).
 

Speaking of foresight, I feel like this virus crept up on us really quickly and every government and every big tourism provider perhaps should have done at least one thing differently.  However, it’s so much easier now to say these things in hindsight as I am one who was too guilty of once thinking this was ‘no worse than the flu’ and would blow over much quicker than it has. Boy was I wrong.

In saying that, without a cruise currently booked, I am fortunate to have not been negatively effected by the decisions of any cruiseline, so I can only imagine how frustrating things have been for those negatively effected.  

I have noticed that Carnival are spamming me a lot at present with some pretty significant deals.  I even got another email last night after unsubscribing a few days ago.  I suspect cruiselines, like most tourism providers, are very worried right now and regardless of what poor decisions were or weren’t made, my heart goes out to the many thousands who will probably soon find themselves without a job.  

[Pushka]

2 hours ago, DiamondFour said:

A glimmer of hope today. Although I have no faith in the man since his derogatory comments about cruise ships the NSW police commissioner has today stated that the lock down will last 90 days. The ban on cruise ships appears to end June 15th. So that leaves us with a glimmer of hope that maybe domestic cruises will resume by then. Although I personally think it is unlikely the chances are still in the low percentage range that cruising will resume by then. I think the government will want to give the economy a boost as quickly as they can and would probably be encouraging domestic tourism before international borders reopened. 

 

Given that the restrictions in NSW are now 90 days, then no way Jose! 

[DiamondFour]

24 minutes ago, Pushka said:

 

Given that the restrictions in NSW are now 90 days, then no way Jose! 

Is that backdated until we were put on a forced lock down?

1 hour ago, By The Bay said:

I am more inclined to believe the experts at the W.H.O.

"You can catch COVID-19, no matter how sunny or hot the weather is. Countries with hot weather have reported cases of COVID-19."

I am somewhat of a skeptic when it comes to UN bodies whose representatives have been bought and paid for by votes or larger countries. They sat on their hands for too long before declaring a pandemic and towed the ccp line.

 

For some of us who love cruising the hope that the warmer climates and hot summer will kill it is certainly hope worth clinging to.

 

This is where I am watching to gauge the trend of the virus. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[lyndarra]

15 hours ago, DiamondFour said:

Our Spring seems reasonable. Being optimistic if as some coronavirus experts are correct that this virus will not survive the northern hemispheres summer and turns out to be a nightmare until then it may be subdued to the point that all things resume by September and October onward. By then our summer should be approaching and if the heat theory is correct then our lucky country will have survived better than others with our insurance policy of extreme heat.

This morning I was watching on TV an interview with a UK doctor in isolation as he has tested positive. He is one of Britain's top immunologists. He was very critical of the government and its handling of the situation, particularly in testing. He also emphasised that this virus is not acting like a flu virus and stressed that it is more like malaria. Malaria is rife in hot, tropical, countries. It, the virus, is now spreading like wildfire through Indonesia. That is not like flu. This virus is no respecter of climate zones. Did anyone not notice it came out of China in mid winter and was spreading as the weather was warming up? We will know for sure what, if any, effect climate will have for another 12 months or more.

[The_Big_M]

1 hour ago, Kiwi Kruzer said:

The “Govt” can ban cruising whenever it likes , but the decision to resume cruising will be made in Boardrooms far ,far away.
 

 

In a way. But remember that for cruise ships to operate it requires both:

a) passengers to be available to go to them

b) passengers to be able to visit the destination.

 

Both of these factors are controlled by governments. So basically, unless governments support the return of cruising, it won't happen.

[The_Big_M]

30 minutes ago, DiamondFour said:

Is that backdated until we were put on a forced lock down?

I am somewhat of a skeptic when it comes to UN bodies whose representatives have been bought and paid for by votes or larger countries. They sat on their hands for too long before declaring a pandemic and towed the ccp line.

 

For some of us who love cruising the hope that the warmer climates and hot summer will kill it is certainly hope worth clinging to.

 

This is where I am watching to gauge the trend of the virus. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

End of March to end of June is the way I'm reading it.

 

But as above doesn't mean it can't be modified (extended) if need be.

 

I also don't see anything to suggest warmer weather to kill it. Just someone's own theory without much basis as far as I can tell.

[Aus Traveller]

3 minutes ago, The_Big_M said:

 

I also don't see anything to suggest warmer weather to kill it. Just someone's own theory without much basis as far as I can tell.

Agreed. If the virus couldn't exist in hot weather, Singapore and Indonesia would have escaped its ravages.

[DiamondFour]

12 minutes ago, Aus Traveller said:

Agreed. If the virus couldn't exist in hot weather, Singapore and Indonesia would have escaped its ravages.

Not to be argumentative but Singapore has 1000 cases and 4 deaths with a population of 5 million give to take. Australia has over 5000 cases with 24 million. 0.9 people per million for Australia and 0.7 people per million for Singapore. I think they are faring better than as for a highly densely populated city of living. 3.1 people per square kilometer for Australia and 8358 people per square kilometer for Singapore.

[VK3DQ]

Hi Folks

 

Well I now would like to adjust my original estimate , I said it would be 2 years to get back to normal ...now I think it will be at least 5 years and possibly 10 years before cruising returns to Australia.... the issue of FOC crews has to be addressed before cruising can begin

 

 

Regards

John 

[Pushka]

Celebrity Eclipse is escalating rapidly. A passenger who is now back in hotel isolation in Australia Sydney has tested positive. And she said other Aussies had similar symptoms to her. 

[getting older slowly]

Honestly... now depressed..... NSW 3 months lock down..  ( sorry didn't Canberra say it was a shut down )    

 

I now doubt very much our October & November cruise  will happen......

 

Then could possibly holiday local. I am doubting that as well.....    if any thing is still operationg ....

 

as most places couldn't survive for 4-6 months with no income.......Australia will be closed 

( just like Magrathea , it went into hibernation awaiting an economic recovery )

 

Also would just like to take the special car out for a drive.....   Can't do that either.....

 

So nothing to look forward too..... this year and maybe next..... grim

 

As I read in the paper.....  the virus is nothing..... the economic disaster  it has and will cause,  will get us all.....

 

Oh well     Don

   

[Aus Traveller]

39 minutes ago, DiamondFour said:

Not to be argumentative but Singapore has 1000 cases and 4 deaths with a population of 5 million give to take. Australia has over 5000 cases with 24 million. 0.9 people per million for Australia and 0.7 people per million for Singapore. I think they are faring better than as for a highly densely populated city of living. 3.1 people per square kilometer for Australia and 8358 people per square kilometer for Singapore.

From what I have read, Singapore imposed isolation and lock-downs earlier than Australia did. Added to that, I think the Singaporeans are more complaint than some Aussies. They are used to more controls on their behaviour than we are.

[lyndarra]

11 minutes ago, Aus Traveller said:

From what I have read, Singapore imposed isolation and lock-downs earlier than Australia did. Added to that, I think the Singaporeans are more compliant than some Aussies. They are used to more controls on their behaviour than we are.

Fixed it for you.

You are also correct. Along with Hong Kong and S Korea they learned something from SARS.

[Pushka]

15 minutes ago, getting older slowly said:

Honestly... now depressed..... NSW 3 months lock down..  ( sorry didn't Canberra say it was a shut down )    

 

I now doubt very much our October & November cruise  will happen......

 

Then could possibly holiday local. I am doubting that as well.....    if any thing is still operationg ....

 

as most places couldn't survive for 4-6 months with no income.......Australia will be closed 

( just like Magrathea , it went into hibernation awaiting an economic recovery )

 

Also would just like to take the special car out for a drive.....   Can't do that either.....

 

So nothing to look forward too..... this year and maybe next..... grim

 

As I read in the paper.....  the virus is nothing..... the economic disaster  it has and will cause,  will get us all.....

 

Oh well     Don

   

If you read between the lines it was always going to take 6 months. 

[mr walker]

23 minutes ago, Pushka said:

If you read between the lines it was always going to take 6 months. 

I think the PM has been very consistent in regards to this timeline, even with an "at least" or two thrown in.

[Aus Traveller]

38 minutes ago, lyndarra said:

Fixed it for you.

You are also correct. Along with Hong Kong and S Korea they learned something from SARS.

Thanks for fixing the typo.

[Aus Traveller]

One reason I would like to see some cruise ships stay in our waters is so they can quickly get ready to start operations when it is safe to do so. If they are all re-located to the Northern hemisphere, it is going to take longer.

 

I am hoping that the Aust/NZ area will overcome this virus earlier that some other areas of the world, and that the first cruises will be Aust domestic and to NZ. If the ships aren't here, it would be much more difficult. I wouldn't want to get on a ship that has been in an area of the world where the virus is still raging or where it has become endemic.

[By The Bay]

2 hours ago, DiamondFour said:

Not to be argumentative but Singapore has 1000 cases and 4 deaths with a population of 5 million give to take. Australia has over 5000 cases with 24 million. 0.9 people per million for Australia and 0.7 people per million for Singapore. I think they are faring better than as for a highly densely populated city of living. 3.1 people per square kilometer for Australia and 8358 people per square kilometer for Singapore.

[in rod we trust]

  do you all honestly think what happen here with the ruby princess and the other 3 ships in nsw letting there infected people of here , is going to go away in the minds of people who may loose loved ones and countless of people who lost there jobs.. 

 

these ships are even slapping us in the face by not leaving aussie waters , that's just getting more people upset about these ships.  they think the crews are infected and might overwhelm our hospital beds.  

 

 who will go on a cruise now, and whats to say if they open in 6 months that another case of a infected ship wont happen .

people will not take that chance and will probably make the gov not allow them to resume until there is a vaccine or the country is free of the virus .

all those other port of calls around the pacific  wont let them dock with the same fear  so no way in the world will these ships operate hear in oz until a vaccine is found at all. 

reducing a curve is just so the hospitals can manage the influx of people infected and may need hospital beds or icu , not for you all to get back on a ship ..

if you flatten the curve it can always flare up again just takes another cruise ship infected and bam off ya go again with another spike up.

 

  be real will you unless its totally eradicated or a vaccine you will never see them operate here again 

 

Edited April 2, 2020 by in rod we trust

[ilikeanswers]

2 hours ago, DiamondFour said:

Not to be argumentative but Singapore has 1000 cases and 4 deaths with a population of 5 million give to take. Australia has over 5000 cases with 24 million. 0.9 people per million for Australia and 0.7 people per million for Singapore. I think they are faring better than as for a highly densely populated city of living. 3.1 people per square kilometer for Australia and 8358 people per square kilometer for Singapore.

 

Adding to what other posters have said about Singapore, after one infection recorded they intiated emergency protocols and they had a standby medical unit ready to be deployed for testing and diagnosis in the event of epidemics. You have to remember they got hit hard by SARS so the government wanted to make sure it didn't happen again therefore they readied themselves for a potential epidemic.