Will There Be Any Cruising At All In 2020?

[disneykins]

1 hour ago, sanger727 said:

 

I think these two things are contradictory. Things are not opening up because the danger has passed. The danger will not ‘have passed’ until there’s a vaccine or herd immunity which is a long ways away (will not happen in 2020). Things are opening up because social distancing is working and based on the success of social distancing at the essential businesses that are open, they believe social distancing will continue to work as non-essential businessss re-open. 
 

my workplace had a perfect example. We stayed open because we are essential. We have many units spread out through several buildings. Early on one unit had someone catch the virus and it spread to 6 people in that unit. Once they saw they they really clamped down on social distancing policies (rule is no more than 2 people in any room at any time, everyone was given a mask through wearing them isn’t mandated, daily health screens) and while the occasional person has caught the virus on various units, there hasn’t been any more spread at work between employees.

 

until there’s a vaccine or herd immunity, this is our future. IF cruising comes back before that (and I think it will) social distancing will be the name of the game. Since it’s so hard to social distance in the tight spaces of the ship I do think that masks will be mandatory (at least indoors, in public spaces, while not eating or drinking). In bars and restaurants they will have to rely on lower capacity, spreading chairs apart, possibly staggered seating, etc. 

 

So yes, I think we willl see cruising in 2020,  but if you are planning on being on one of those cruises it’s going to come down to if cruising is worth putting up with the various new policies and restrictions.

Tried to quote your last line but whole post quoted. I think cruisers are used to putting up with the various new policies and restrictions, pay restaurants, security screenings, corkage fees, automatic service fees (and increasing them contstantly). I'm sure there are other changes I've forgotten. I think we'll put up with the coming changes (masks, social distancing, etc) because we enjoy cruising so much. A year or two from now we'll be complaining about something else.

 

We still cut through the casino (and even stop to watch sometimes) even though we know the second hand smoke is slowly killing us. We still fly even though we know there are terrorists out there waiting to take us out. We go back in the water even after growing up with Jaws, lol. Everything is a gamble, this is just another one we will probably take.

We cant wait to cruise again, but it will be different. And we'll want to make sure there are some changes to protect us on board.

[Laszlo]

14 hours ago, mugtech said:

It would be very entertaining to observe such an event.

Don't laugh,  my printing company in the last week or so has received a lot of jobs for doing floor graphics in stores. 75% of the work is to keep people flowing in One direction

[GA Dave]

Another thing people are forgetting is how bad the near-term economy is going to affect the cruise industry.  I have been fortunate so far to stay employed through this event.  But, with all the other businesses that are shut down or drastically cut back, the negative effects will impact my employer sooner or later.  And there will be no federal government bump in unemployment if the business does not shutdown, but only cuts back due to reduced cash flow.  Due to this, we are saving every penny we can and have cut out all nonessential expenses to maximize our emergency funds.  Personally I know of very few people thinking of spending money on vacations this year, particularly not something as extravagant as a cruise.

[beerman2]

12 minutes ago, GA Dave said:

Another thing people are forgetting is how bad the near-term economy is going to affect the cruise industry.  I have been fortunate so far to stay employed through this event.  But, with all the other businesses that are shut down or drastically cut back, the negative effects will impact my employer sooner or later.  And there will be no federal government bump in unemployment if the business does not shutdown, but only cuts back due to reduced cash flow.  Due to this, we are saving every penny we can and have cut out all nonessential expenses to maximize our emergency funds.  Personally I know of very few people thinking of spending money on vacations this year, particularly not something as extravagant as a cruise.

"Cash flow" will be a major issue , the longer this goes on for everyone involved , pax and cruise lines themselves.

 

[EscapeFromConnecticut]

1 hour ago, GA Dave said:

Another thing people are forgetting is how bad the near-term economy is going to affect the cruise industry.  I have been fortunate so far to stay employed through this event.  But, with all the other businesses that are shut down or drastically cut back, the negative effects will impact my employer sooner or later.  And there will be no federal government bump in unemployment if the business does not shutdown, but only cuts back due to reduced cash flow.  Due to this, we are saving every penny we can and have cut out all nonessential expenses to maximize our emergency funds.  Personally I know of very few people thinking of spending money on vacations this year, particularly not something as extravagant as a cruise.

 

This is exactly so.

The unemployment rate in the U.S. is now hideously high, but the vast majority of people who were employed in January still are employed as we head toward May. 

But ... a lot of them are taking temporary or rolling furloughs, pay cuts or daily reductions in work hours. Benefit cutbacks loom in the future, and I can't imagine many people are realistically looking for 2020 merit raises, bonuses or profit sharing awards. If your retirement funds were heavily in the market, you've seen a lot of value wiped out. The housing market looks shabby, too.

(Also, the wise retirees are aware that they may soon be sharing some pain. The economy doesn't take this kind of crushing hit without an eventual risk to corporate retirement accounts, public pensions & any retiree health care plans that still exist.)

All of which means a horrendous kick to the business model that modern cruising is built on: An ever-expanding base of financially comfortable, middle-class cruisers eager to fill the cabins of an ever-expanding fleet of larger & larger ships. Widespread appeal in the mass market along with high-volume sales sustained this business model for years - but that's all dead now.

Which I why I've been predicting for the past five weeks that cruise prices eventually will be headed north.

 

The cruise lines of the future will be smaller operations with fewer ships serving way, way fewer passengers. They'll need to target the cream of the middle class: the people who still retain significant discretionary incomes (along with the willingness to board a cruise ship).

If ships must sail with fewer passengers and take on huge new expenses to prevent and/or cope with COVID-19 outbreaks, then the cost to passengers will go even higher.
Yes, higher prices will turn off many long-term customers, but the cash-starved cruise lines will have no choice but to cut them loose. 

Edited April 27, 2020 by EscapeFromConnecticut

[ukbecky]

 

Posted on another thread from https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/tourism-cruises/article241914096.html

 

 

Cruising is not "uniquely life-threatening"- at least, not much more than it ever was.

 

It is heartbreaking to have any deaths at all, but it's important to maintain some kind of perspective. These numbers are out of tens of thousands of passengers and crew, on 259 ships(almost half owned by Carnival Corp), visiting cities all over the world. 

 

There is no way to make travel 100% safe. We can be healthy when we board, pick up something nasty in a port and unknowingly bring it on board the ship, the airplane, the bus, the subway, the taxi, the car, the restaurant, the buffet, etc etc.

 

 

[Laszlo]

1 hour ago, GA Dave said:

Another thing people are forgetting is how bad the near-term economy is going to affect the cruise industry.  I have been fortunate so far to stay employed through this event.  But, with all the other businesses that are shut down or drastically cut back, the negative effects will impact my employer sooner or later.  And there will be no federal government bump in unemployment if the business does not shutdown, but only cuts back due to reduced cash flow.  Due to this, we are saving every penny we can and have cut out all nonessential expenses to maximize our emergency funds.  Personally I know of very few people thinking of spending money on vacations this year, particularly not something as extravagant as a cruise.

 

Ditto, for my wife and I were are really not effected job wise. Both are still working, she from home while I go into work. But I know many people who are not working and have no plans to spend any money this year on trips or vacation. We on the other hand hope to take a week vacation in late June or July, another week or two in September and then another one in the winter. God only knows if that will pan out

Edited April 27, 2020 by Laszlo

[TSUmom]

19 hours ago, GA Dave said:

Another thing people are forgetting is how bad the near-term economy is going to affect the cruise industry.  I have been fortunate so far to stay employed through this event.  But, with all the other businesses that are shut down or drastically cut back, the negative effects will impact my employer sooner or later.  And there will be no federal government bump in unemployment if the business does not shutdown, but only cuts back due to reduced cash flow.  Due to this, we are saving every penny we can and have cut out all nonessential expenses to maximize our emergency funds.  Personally I know of very few people thinking of spending money on vacations this year, particularly not something as extravagant as a cruise.

Like you my husband and I are still working and we are just watching what we spend.  If our August cruise to Alaska is canceled, which we are planning on that happening then we will just take the FCC and apply it to our April cruise.  Then we are hoping to still take some type of vacation to replace it.  Of course it won't be a cruise but we figure this will be a good time to see some other state, depending on what is open to travel.  

[disneykins]

22 hours ago, ukbecky said:

 

 

 

 

I love this chart, I think the cruise lines, especially NCL should be posting it on their websites. I don't want to minimize the suffering of anyone of these passengers or crew who have contracted Covid 19 or sadly passed away. But the numbers don't justify the hysteria surrounding cruise line cases. The chart shows a total of 2,602 cases (922 crew) and 65 total deaths. This is on 259 ships worldwide. Even if those 259 ships only held 1,000 passengers and crew, that's 259,000 total people on board at any one time and only 2,602 cases and 65 deaths.  

I know its not a good situation on the cruise ships, but the numbers make it sound not as bad as the media want us to believe. 

[npcl]

On 4/27/2020 at 11:38 AM, ukbecky said:

 

Posted on another thread from https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/tourism-cruises/article241914096.html

 

 

Cruising is not "uniquely life-threatening"- at least, not much more than it ever was.

 

It is heartbreaking to have any deaths at all, but it's important to maintain some kind of perspective. These numbers are out of tens of thousands of passengers and crew, on 259 ships(almost half owned by Carnival Corp), visiting cities all over the world. 

 

There is no way to make travel 100% safe. We can be healthy when we board, pick up something nasty in a port and unknowingly bring it on board the ship, the airplane, the bus, the subway, the taxi, the car, the restaurant, the buffet, etc etc.

 

 

Keep in mind that there ware a number of "flu like symptoms" that were never tested and as such are not in the official counts.  The Zaandam is a good example over 200 passengers with flu like symptoms, the crew impacted bad enough that another ship was sent to meet it, where it took passengers not showing symptoms off and put additional crew on.  Yet they only tested a small number so its "official" COVID-19 count is 9.

 

The cruise lines learned very effectively, if someone is never tested, they are not counted in the COVID-19 counts.

 

The reason the count for Carnival is so high is because they had 3 ships where land authorities took control and most were tested and/or tracked (Diamond, Grand, and Ruby).

 

For many of the ships off shore someone only shows up in the stats when they get in bad enough shape that they have to be taken ashore.

Edited April 28, 2020 by npcl

[OceanBlueWaters]

JMO...but I think this topic can go to infinity and beyond!

Our Governor (NJ) has us on lockdown indefinitely.  He can't even commit to opening up Golf Courses (at safe distancing) in order to provide simple mental health and some normalcy as the weather perks up.

There is still 1 out 1 in at grocery stores and good luck if you can get toilet paper or any paper product.  Forget about cleaners in any form.  Follow the arrows in aisles or you will be reminded you are violating store policy.  Awesome.

Sure...Cruise Lines will float again (as everyone/most has speculated), but at what cost?  How are Cruise Lines gonna sail again to protect us?  Does anyone have new guidelines?  Masks at all times?  Social distancing?  How? Do I need a mask?  No go for me.

With all the small businesses crumbling, I feel guilty responding to this and my potential cruise in 2021.  So much more destruction around us to attend to...

When someone posts these guidelines about how to cruise again, they will be a hero.  But until then, it is purely speculation and we have to wait for people smarter than us to determine how "my vacation" will play out on their lovely ship.   I will make a decision at that time. 

JMO 🙂

[npcl]

On 4/27/2020 at 11:38 AM, ukbecky said:

 

Posted on another thread from https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/tourism-cruises/article241914096.html

 

 

Cruising is not "uniquely life-threatening"- at least, not much more than it ever was.

 

It is heartbreaking to have any deaths at all, but it's important to maintain some kind of perspective. These numbers are out of tens of thousands of passengers and crew, on 259 ships(almost half owned by Carnival Corp), visiting cities all over the world. 

 

There is no way to make travel 100% safe. We can be healthy when we board, pick up something nasty in a port and unknowingly bring it on board the ship, the airplane, the bus, the subway, the taxi, the car, the restaurant, the buffet, etc etc.

 

 

One additional note.  When cruising was suspended  on March 13.  The number of identified cases in the US was 2,183.

 

The total number of cases in the world outside of China was 64,450, mostly in South Korea, Iran and Europe.

 

So  you got that number in spite of the suspension at a time when cases were relatively low.

[Comi.uy]

13 minutes ago, OceanBlueWaters said:

Our Governor (NJ) has us on lockdown indefinitely.  He can't even commit to opening up Golf Courses (at safe distancing) in order to provide simple mental health and some normalcy as the weather perks up.

Many US state governors are flat out going crazy. Guessing they wished they were born in North Korea or something like that to be dictators. They are NO reference for anything!

[ukbecky]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KTJj94nWd88Gml98AbTZKYZejbEJ8q4Xa7oE6g5r9ec/edit#gid=0

 

Here's the data, courtesy of the Miami Herald.

 

Confirmed cases are yes, based on testing (and I don't think it's the cruise line doing the testing and/or reporting the numbers). Number of deaths is easy to see and hard to hide. 

 

Regardless of when cruising was 'suspended', the last ship docked last week.

The Diamond Princess outbreak started February 3rd, long before the March suspension. Tens of thousands cruised in the weeks after that, having come in from all over the world. 

 

And yet the numbers don't lie. 

[npcl]

9 minutes ago, ukbecky said:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KTJj94nWd88Gml98AbTZKYZejbEJ8q4Xa7oE6g5r9ec/edit#gid=0

 

Here's the data, courtesy of the Miami Herald.

 

Confirmed cases are yes, based on testing (and I don't think it's the cruise line doing the testing and/or reporting the numbers). Number of deaths is easy to see and hard to hide. 

 

Regardless of when cruising was 'suspended', the last ship docked last week.

The Diamond Princess outbreak started February 3rd, long before the March suspension. Tens of thousands cruised in the weeks after that, having come in from all over the world. 

 

And yet the numbers don't lie. 

Again when the number of cases was relatively low compared to today.

 

At one time in the US around the time of the shutdown cruising related cases accounted for 17% of the US total according to a CDC report.

Yes look at  the later ships coming in Coral Princess, Celebrity Eclipse, HAL Zaandam, etc.  Hundreds of flu like symptoms, but not tested but with dead passengers (Coral, Zaandam)   Cruise that started early in March, when cases were low, but still got on board.  Had to come back to the US because noone would let them port and off load. Look at ships like the Oasis.  Sitting off shore after offloading yet over a hundred cases developing among the crew.

 

The Eclipse said no cases when they came into San Diego.  Lady taken off on stretcher right to the hospital with Covid-19.

 

The number are low because only those actually tested show up in the numbers.  Those ill, but not tested do not show.  Most not tested.

 

If they had continued cruising and had not shutdown in early March, their number would be much much worse.

Edited April 28, 2020 by npcl

[ukbecky]

8 minutes ago, npcl said:

Again when the number of cases was relatively low compared to today.

 

At one time in the US around the time of the shutdown cruising related cases accounted for 17% of the US total according to a CDC report.

Yes look at  the later ships coming in Coral Princess, Celebrity Eclipse, HAL Zaandam, etc.  Hundreds of flu like symptoms, but not tested but with dead passengers (Coral, Zaandam)   Cruise that started early in March, when cases were low, but still got on board.  Had to come back to the US because noone would let them port and off load. Look at ships like the Oasis.  Sitting off shore after offloading yet over a hundred cases developing among the crew.

 

If they had continued cruising and had not shutdown in early March, their number would be much much worse.

 

The number of cases is irrelevant - it depends entirely on whether tests were done or not. This virus was around long before tests were being done.

 

The whole point of my post was that cruising is not "uniquely life-threatening". That people get sick, always have, for all kinds of reasons. And that the number of deaths on cruise ships is not nearly as high as some expect us to believe.

[OceanBlueWaters]

3 minutes ago, npcl said:

Again when the number of cases was relatively low compared to today.

 

At one time in the US around the time of the shutdown cruising related cases accounted for 17% of the US total according to a CDC report.

Yes look at  the later ships coming in Coral Princess, Celebrity Eclipse, HAL Zaandam, etc.  Hundreds of flu like symptoms, but not tested but with dead passengers (Coral, Zaandam)   Cruise that started early in March, when cases were low, but still got on board.  Had to come back to the US because noone would let them port and off load. Look at ships like the Oasis.  Sitting off shore after offloading yet over a hundred cases developing among the crew.

 

If they had continued cruising and had not shutdown in early March, their number would be much much worse.

You guys fight it out, but I STILL BELIEVE COVID-19 was here in October 2019 in the NY/NJ area. 

 

Only time will tell, and I hope some legitimate News Network/WHO will investigate and provide answers as to the timeline.

 

JMO 🙂

[npcl]

24 minutes ago, ukbecky said:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KTJj94nWd88Gml98AbTZKYZejbEJ8q4Xa7oE6g5r9ec/edit#gid=0

 

Here's the data, courtesy of the Miami Herald.

 

Confirmed cases are yes, based on testing (and I don't think it's the cruise line doing the testing and/or reporting the numbers). Number of deaths is easy to see and hard to hide. 

 

Regardless of when cruising was 'suspended', the last ship docked last week.

The Diamond Princess outbreak started February 3rd, long before the March suspension. Tens of thousands cruised in the weeks after that, having come in from all over the world. 

 

And yet the numbers don't lie. 

Actually numbers lie in a number of ways.

 

But as you say deaths are hard to hide, actual cases can be hidden.  Take a look at the number of deaths in the spread sheet you listed.  As you say they can not hide deaths.  From cases where passengers were fully tested such as the Diamond the death rate is around 1 percent.  So it you look at so of those ships gee they must have been horribly unlucky

 

Phoenix Reisen 6 deaths out of "73" cases

Solstice 1 death out of 20 cases

Coral Princess 2 deaths out of 18 cases  (yet the passengers on board reported that many were sick)

Costa Luminosa   5 deaths out of 63 cases

MSC  Opera   1 death out of 16 cases

Zaandam  6 deaths out of  13 cases (we know that the Zaandam reported over 200 passengers with flu like symptoms)

 

Do you actually believe the numbers of cases in that spread sheet?

 

Again all of this happened with the cruise lines basically shutdown as it worsened.  With cruises that started prior to the shutdown.  Even with the Grand many were not tested.  Those that did not show symptoms at the end of quarantine were not tested.  With the Ruby the passengers were allowed to leave without being tested.  The result there show from tracing By Australia of Australian Citizens,  We do not know the number of cases in the passengers from other countries because they left the country without being tested.

Edited April 28, 2020 by npcl

[ECCruise]

10 minutes ago, npcl said:

 

 

Do you actually believe the numbers of cases in that spread sheet?

No way.  And even if I did, no way I would take those numbers as positives for the cruise lines, as some here have. 

 

Believe what you want.  Cheerlead the industry all you want (and no one has traditionally been more supportive of the industry than I, with more than a $ Quarter Million in fares paid) but this industry has been severely wounded.  Will it come back in some form?  Of course.  But nary a shadow of itself less than 3 months ago.

[pcakes122]

6 hours ago, ukbecky said:

And yet the numbers don't lie. 

You are kidding yourself because you don't fully understand what you're looking at.

 

NCL was required to report to the CDC any KNOWN cases of Covid-19. That would be people who were diagnosed upon disembarkation AND advised NCL that they were. I would venture to say that the small NCL numbers were people who were hospitalized, and the hospital notified NCL who then notified the CDC.

 

I was on the last sailing of the NCL Bliss (March 8th), and I tested positive for Covid-19 when I got home. I had symptoms on the ship, but I wasn't fully aware of what Covid symptoms were (at that time the publicized symptoms were dry cough, high fever and shortness of breath - none of which I had.) I returned home on March 15th and on March 16th I received an email from NCL advising me that someone on the prior sailing had tested positive for the disease. At that point, because I did have respiratory symptoms (productive cough, runny nose, fatigue, etc.), I was able to get a test and tested positive. I DID NOT advise NCL of these results, nor did they request in the email that I get tested and let them know the results. 

 

I am certain that there are many, many more people who have a similar story as mine - and our confirmed cases are NOT included in what you are reading in the Miami Herald.

 

It is VERY dangerous to use these numbers as a way to gauge how risky it is to cruise during this pandemic.

 

I thought I was going to be just fine on my cruise. I brought my own disinfectant and I wiped down door knobs, remote controls and even the slot machines I played in the casino!  I was staying in the Haven and I had all my meals there (most in my cabin.) I never went to the Atrium, the buffet, specialty or main dining rooms, theater, pool or any other common venues. I had a very naive sense of safety because I thought I was taking all the right precautions. I was one of those people who just thought it wasn't going to happen to me (especially with my diligence and precautions!)

 

By the way, NCL took my temperature upon embarkation and disembarkation and I had no fever. As a matter of fact, I never had a fever throughout the course of the disease.

 

I love to cruise and I will cruise again. However, I will not cruise until this disease is completely under control, whenever that is.

 

Also, this is not your normal flu. I am still sick after all of these weeks. I am one of the lucky ones who was able to tough it out at home, but that doesn't mean it's been an easy road. This has been the most frightening disease I have ever experienced. Trust me when I tell you you do not want to find out first hand!

Edited April 29, 2020 by pcakes122

[joeyancho]

On 4/25/2020 at 2:25 PM, onetimearoundtheworld said:

 

This. And I am pretty sure it will only be in areas where they have secured agreements with local governments so that a media coverage of a ship desperately looking for a disembarkation port won't happen again. In the same way I wouldn't expect to many disturbing regulations on the ship as that would look bad for business as well. Less guests, more space, more cleaning but nothing like waiters in the specialty restaurants with FFP2 masks or having to keep 2m distance in every venue. 

Have you ever heard of freedom of the press? First amendment.

[joeyancho]

On 4/25/2020 at 6:57 PM, Sand and Seas said:

Someone has to go on the first few cruises.  Then, if all goes well, others will feel more comfortable about going.

I think I'm going to feel more comfortable on a cruise ship with all of the employees cleaning everything than shopping in my local Walmart.    (Not saying that the Walmart employees aren't trying hard....it's some of the idiots that are shopping I worry about!)

Those same "idiots " take cruises.

[Sand and Seas]

51 minutes ago, joeyancho said:

Those same "idiots " take cruises.

You're making my point.

 

On the ship employees are following everyone around and wiping down the surfaces several times a day.   That's not happening with the same intensity in our local stores.

Edited April 29, 2020 by Sand and Seas

[pcakes122]

55 minutes ago, Sand and Seas said:

On the ship employees are following everyone around and wiping down the surfaces several times a day. 

 It didn't help me. 😢

[onetimearoundtheworld]

Life is inherently dangerous. Accidents, injuries, infections, death. Stuff happens. So no one should wait for a type of vacation that has zero as a number to everything negative. Luckily the majority is not like grumpy and cranky cruise critic 😉

 

Just look at pictures and videos from opened beaches and other public venues. Most people understand there is a risk to everything but decide to enjoy life. Sure there will be some modifications on the operations and some technology improvements. But people will understand that if they leave their own little protected bubble stuff happens.