Possible good news for Carnival?

[Paulinda]

 

Don't know if you saw this but this is a bit of sunshine for cruising IMO.

 

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/05/11/why-carnivals-bookings-jumped-600-and-what-analyst.aspx

[Hlitner]

Perhaps it is a bit of sunshine, but on the other hand it might simply be folks rebooking with their generous FCCs they received because of cancelled cruises.  If so, this will not enhance cash flow in a normal manner.   It is also interesting that Carnival has apparently gotten a lot of August bookings but there is still a very big question whether they will even be able to resume operations in August.  They would first need the USA to not extend the current no-cruise order.  And then they would need for a few ports in the Caribbean to open to ships or they will have to have simple itineraries with mostly sea days and a visit to a private island (assuming that the Bahamas agree to open up the private islands).

 

Hank

[Himself]

Does this apply to Carnival Cruise Lines only?  When is HAL picking up cruising again? 

[cruiserchuck]

I do not see any way they will be able to resume cruising as early as August.   Large cruise ships with thousands of people onboard will be one of the last parts of the economy to reopen.

[IPB4IGO]

25 minutes ago, Himself said:

Does this apply to Carnival Cruise Lines only?  When is HAL picking up cruising again? 

It refers only to Carnival Cruises, not to the Carnival parent company.  The press release includes:

 

Beginning August 1, we may operate cruises on the following ships:

• Galveston:  Carnival Dream, Carnival Freedom and Carnival Vista
• Miami:  Carnival Horizon, Carnival Magic and Carnival Sensation
• Port Canaveral:  Carnival Breeze and Carnival Elation.

[regnig]

28 minutes ago, IPB4IGO said:

It refers only to Carnival Cruises, not to the Carnival parent company.  The press release includes:

 

Beginning August 1, we may operate cruises on the following ships:

• Galveston:  Carnival Dream, Carnival Freedom and Carnival Vista
• Miami:  Carnival Horizon, Carnival Magic and Carnival Sensation
• Port Canaveral:  Carnival Breeze and Carnival Elation.

(red added by regnig)

Yea and I "may" win the lottery.  I sure wouldn't want to take a chance that early but that's just me.

[fatcat04]

Carnival itself has a younger demographic and does a ton of cookie cutter shorter 3-5 day cruises. August in the Caribbean sounds hot and sweaty to me but I know some folks who do those shorty summer cruises every year and love them. Most are younger, some have kids on summer holidays, and most find that time of year convenient and/or affordable. Guess we will see. 

Edited May 11, 2020 by fatcat04

[npcl]

2 hours ago, IPB4IGO said:

It refers only to Carnival Cruises, not to the Carnival parent company.  The press release includes:

 

Beginning August 1, we may operate cruises on the following ships:

• Galveston:  Carnival Dream, Carnival Freedom and Carnival Vista
• Miami:  Carnival Horizon, Carnival Magic and Carnival Sensation
• Port Canaveral:  Carnival Breeze and Carnival Elation.

Notice the we may, not we will.

[SJSULIBRARIAN]

Also hurricane season.

[The-Inside-Cabin]

Right now the cruise industry needs to get some cruises going - just to change the conversation.    August is probably optimistic.  I am booking in November - I feel pretty good about those cruises that are short and don't stray to far from the USA.    

 

A lot of their revenue comes from onboard spend and they may even do some "cruises to nowhere"  nothing but sea days.   I could go for that.  

[ski ww]

I think that's a lot of wishing & dreaming, any way good luck.

[DFD1]

I hope it happens. The cruise industry can use a bit of positive news right now.

 

I doubt HAL will attempt any late summer cruises. Demographic is too old and most have been to the Caribbean several times...and not in late summer.

[Krazy Kruizers]

It will be interesting to see if Carnival really does start their cruises in August.

[DFD1]

I just looked at the pricing for the late summer Carnival Cruises......as low as $169.00 for a six day cruise....and all of them extremely low.

 

Some time back, several weeks ago, I commented there would be some very low prices when cruising attempted to resume. Others contradicted me saying prices would be much higher. In some cases that may be true, but it is clearly not the case with Carnival right now.

 

Oh, and many of these late summer cruises are already sold out.

[whogo]

18 hours ago, Hlitner said:

Perhaps it is a bit of sunshine, but on the other hand it might simply be folks rebooking with their generous FCCs they received because of cancelled cruises. 

I read the articles, assumed it was all FCC bookings, and was disappointed that Motley Fool did not have a disclaimer. Who would risk booking a cruise now? I will not book until there is a cure or treatment for covid-19 and not until I see what cruising is like when it resumes. I have no reason to think that post coronavirus Holland America will be anything like pre-coronavirus Holland America.

[Hlitner]

3 hours ago, whogo said:

I read the articles, assumed it was all FCC bookings, and was disappointed that Motley Fool did not have a disclaimer. Who would risk booking a cruise now? I will not book until there is a cure or treatment for covid-19 and not until I see what cruising is like when it resumes. I have no reason to think that post coronavirus Holland America will be anything like pre-coronavirus Holland America.

Count me in the ship of fools since we did book a cruise for next April and still have a booking for December.  Here is the problem, as I see it, for cruise lovers.  Despite all the optimism about vaccines, previous history tells us that a safe and effective vaccine is at least 3 years away!  I know...the world is full of promises of something by the end of the year, but I heard the same kind of talk when I worked with HIV/AIDs and that was 35 years ago!

 

So, we seniors have to deal with another issue.  Time is not on our side or as a good friend likes to say "so little time...so many things to do."  So for us, it would come down to possibly giving up cruising (we like to cruise about 100 days a year) or continuing to cruise with the risk of COVID-19.  We say this with the knowledge that there is little any cruise line can do to guarantee the health of those aboard.  Yes, they can disinfect, they can screen passengers at embarkation, and they can say the right things.  But they cannot possibly enforce any kind of effective social distancing on ships and we need to keep in mind that COVID-19 can easily be spread through the air via a cough, sneeze, or possibly breath.

 

Hank

[whogo]

3 hours ago, Hlitner said:

Count me in the ship of fools since we did book a cruise for next April and still have a booking for December.

I thought you were a last minute booking kind of guy.

 

I am not willing to risk waiting 60 to 90 days for a refund of a cancelled cruise or to wait years to get pennies on the dollar back from a bankruptcy judge. I will book as  near to sailing date as possible and not until I hear what cruising is like. If you think we have seen cutbacks in the past...

[Hlitner]

20 minutes ago, whogo said:

I thought you were a last minute booking kind of guy.

 

I am not willing to risk waiting 60 to 90 days for a refund of a cancelled cruise or to wait years to get pennies on the dollar back from a bankruptcy judge. I will book as  near to sailing date as possible and not until I hear what cruising is like. If you think we have seen cutbacks in the past...

We certainly do our share of last minute bookings and that will likely continue.  But we also do some long range bookings, especially when it involves long (usually more than a month) cruises that are popular and can sell out pretty far in advance.  We have often chatted here on CC about different booking strategies which we suggest should vary depending on the length and popularity of the cruise.   But now, all the rules are changing and none of us has any experience in this newly evolving market.  

 

Your comment on cutbacks is interesting and we do share your concern.  There has been a lot of talk about changing or eliminating the Lido buffets, but we do not think this is going to happen.   HAL has already paved the way (for mass market lines) in how their buffets have evolved into less self-service (except for pre-plated items).  I would expect HAL to keep most of their Lido set-up.  Other lines, such as Celebrity and Princess, will likely adopt some of the HAL ideas such as staff made salads, pre-made sandwiches. etc.  Princess has long done a fabulous job with their International Café concept and I would expect other lines to adopt that model for some ships.  Princess also does a good job with their pizza (they have a couple of different concepts) where folks do not touch anything except their own plate.  

 

My concern about the future of cruising is the lack of social distancing on mass market ships.  We do not see how this can change and it is a huge factor in the spread of just about any communicable disease.  Most of us are familiar with "cabin cough"  (an upper respiratory infection) and Norovirus.  Cruise ships also have been a platform for the easy spread of influenza.  But now we have COVID-19.  Until there is a safe and effective vaccine, COVID-19 is going to be an issue and a big gamble for both cruisers and the cruise lines.  Nothing we have heard from the cruise lines  addresses real the risk of COVID-19.  They are going to restart operations with the threat of COVID-19 hanging in the air and it is difficult to imagine a good outcome.

 

Hank

[Tampa Girl]

On 5/11/2020 at 4:01 PM, Paulinda said:

 

Don't know if you saw this but this is a bit of sunshine for cruising IMO.

 

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/05/11/why-carnivals-bookings-jumped-600-and-what-analyst.aspx

 

 

Here is another  article from the same source, providing further questions but also some positive financial info.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/05/12/3-things-holding-back-cruise-line-stocks-right-now.aspx

[npcl]

On 5/11/2020 at 7:44 PM, The-Inside-Cabin said:

Right now the cruise industry needs to get some cruises going - just to change the conversation.    August is probably optimistic.  I am booking in November - I feel pretty good about those cruises that are short and don't stray to far from the USA.    

 

A lot of their revenue comes from onboard spend and they may even do some "cruises to nowhere"  nothing but sea days.   I could go for that.  

If they have another outbreak they will certainly change the conversation, but not for the better.

 

Cruise to nowhere  not allowed unless the crew has a US work visa.

[Kenito]

I know I see things through "cruise colored glasses," but I don't expect any more out of CCL than I expect of Marriott, Disneyland, travel show at my local convention center, etc.  They are going to do their best and follow whatever advice given them... which seems to change on a simi-regular basis.  

 

We have vaccines for a lot of things that we still catch.  My three grandkids expose me to danger when I pick them up from elementary school in winter.  I went to war and never thought hand-wringing served any purpose.  I started a business rather than work for someone else all my life.  I don't know if I should spend money on buying more CCL stock or booking a cruise.

 

I'm going to be careful, stay well-informed, follow good advice, but still try to enjoy life.  If they go BK and I can't afford to lose a deposit I should not be taking cruises in the first place... time to go to Yosemite.  I'm not trying to convince anyone.  No one is right or wrong... we all do what we want, and don't need to persuade others to do as we do.

 

Have a great day!

[Nymich]

On 5/11/2020 at 5:58 PM, cruiserchuck said:

I do not see any way they will be able to resume cruising as early as August.   Large cruise ships with thousands of people onboard will be one of the last parts of the economy to reopen.

If not last.

[boom_boom]

Kenito said right for me. DW and I will evaluate what the CDC and other experts say and make a decision that is right for us on our next possible cruise. I think each cruiser and each family must make their own decisions on the level of risk that's acceptable to them, Like probably a big portion of HAL pax I'm in the "high risk" category, but I will decide that risk level, not some government agency. It's like sky diving is risky, but if I want to try it (not likely) then I will do so.

Thus if if the ships sail to ports I want to visit I'll decide if the risk is worth it or not.