No Cruises until October

[JIMinNC]

With the pandemic expected to accelerate September into the winter and into next spring and summer, I would personally not expect US cruising to resume until fall/winter 2021 at the earliest. We have a Greek Isles cruise scheduled for Sept 2021 on another cruise line and do not realistically expect to be going. Our final payment is due in Spring 2021 and I fully expect that at that point there will be no assurance a fall 2021 cruise will sail, so I am ready to walk away at that point. I think we will be dealing with this virus until at least 2022, if not much longer. Just my gut feeling..

.

[CBWIR]

42 minutes ago, JIMinNC said:

With the pandemic expected to accelerate September into the winter and into next spring and summer, I would personally not expect US cruising to resume until fall/winter 2021 at the earliest. We have a Greek Isles cruise scheduled for Sept 2021 on another cruise line and do not realistically expect to be going. Our final payment is due in Spring 2021 and I fully expect that at that point there will be no assurance a fall 2021 cruise will sail, so I am ready to walk away at that point. I think we will be dealing with this virus until at least 2022, if not much longer. Just my gut feeling..

.

What an optimist. 

[Travelcat2]

taxare - Just finished reading an article about this.  It is pretty much what I expected after Regent cancelled cruises through September.  Now I can hope that the U.S. can get their act together - dramatically decrease the number of new cases of Covid so we can all sail and travel the world again!

[RJ2002]

With infection rates and hospitalizations dropping in some areas, yet rising in others, to me it seems there is still a lot of room for improvement before an activity like cruising could resume. 
 

This story from USA Today closes with a not-so-optimistic statement from a CDC spokesperson. 
 

Friday, when asked about the no-sail order ahead of CLIA's decision, Caitlin Shockey, spokesperson for the CDC told USA TODAY that the CDC was still monitoring the situation on cruise ships and was reviewing cruise lines' plans regarding to COVID-19.

 

"At this point in time, we do not have enough information to say when it will be safe for cruise ships to resume sailing."

 

[flossie009]

On 6/16/2020 at 11:21 PM, Bigdogwon said:

All cruises have been cancelled through September for all ships, in the Rssc fleet.

This is broadly in line with FdR's predictions made in his interview with CC in early May:

https://www.cruisecritic.com/news/5340/

 

"The working plan that we have today is in month One ... it would be three Norwegian vessels, one Oceania vessel and one Regent vessel," with the number of ships sailing increasing gradually as momentum builds, he said.

As for when that might be, Del Rio said that "reasonable expectations" pointed to late in quarter three (September) or early quarter four (October through December). He said that it would take six months or so to get the entire company fleet back into service.

 

Edited June 20, 2020 by flossie009

[pappy1022]

9 hours ago, JIMinNC said:

With the pandemic expected to accelerate September into the winter and into next spring and summer, I would personally not expect US cruising to resume until fall/winter 2021 at the earliest. We have a Greek Isles cruise scheduled for Sept 2021 on another cruise line and do not realistically expect to be going. Our final payment is due in Spring 2021 and I fully expect that at that point there will be no assurance a fall 2021 cruise will sail, so I am ready to walk away at that point. I think we will be dealing with this virus until at least 2022, if not much longer. Just my gut feeling..

.

If what you are saying happens, most of the cruise industry will go bankrupt. Certainly, if COVID cases and hospitalizations continue to rapidly increase and there is a second wave this fall, there is a distinct possibility that we won't see any cruises in 2020 or even early 2021. But those are if's and the only thing certain is that we don't know where this is a going. One theory was that hotter weather would be devastating to the virus but some of the worst growth in cases are in Florida, Texas and Arizona where it is now consistently in the 90's. The CDC is going to be very cautious with opening up cruises and quick to pull the trigger if there is any kind of an outbreak on a ship. The uncertainty for the virus and for the cruise industry is very high. That doesn't mean it's all doom and gloom but the possibility does exist that the cruise industry will be shut down for a longer time than currently projected. It may take a vaccine and drugs for better treatment of COVID before we see the opportunity to get back to normal.

[Wendy The Wanderer]

I saw somewhere yesterday (lost the link), that Carnival Corp. is starting to sell off ships.  These are ships that they would have aged out of the various lines soon anyways, but they've hastened that process.  The question is, who would buy a cruise ship right now, even at fire-sale prices?

 

I also saw that they've burned through something over $4 billion dollars this quarter, and are going after huge new funding, necessary to stay afloat, pardon the pun.

[rallydave]

3 minutes ago, Wendy The Wanderer said:

I saw somewhere yesterday (lost the link), that Carnival Corp. is starting to sell off ships.  These are ships that they would have aged out of the various lines soon anyways, but they've hastened that process.  The question is, who would buy a cruise ship right now, even at fire-sale prices?

 

I also saw that they've burned through something over $4 billion dollars this quarter, and are going after huge new funding, necessary to stay afloat, pardon the pun.

Believe they only said getting rid of the ships so that would include scrapping.   As to the 4 million dollars, that was their loss for the quarter, not necessarily money burned thru.   For instance, don't believe the refunds they are paying out would count as losses on the balance sheet which is what was reported.  And the values of the 6 ships they are talking about getting rid of would be a loss in value..

[Steve Q]

7 minutes ago, Wendy The Wanderer said:

I saw somewhere yesterday (lost the link), that Carnival Corp. is starting to sell off ships.  These are ships that they would have aged out of the various lines soon anyways, but they've hastened that process.  The question is, who would buy a cruise ship right now, even at fire-sale prices?

 

I also saw that they've burned through something over $4 billion dollars this quarter, and are going after huge new funding, necessary to stay afloat, pardon the pun.

See link below. They hope to sell six ships within ninety days. Also hope to sell more in the future. I seriously doubt there will be any buyers. Perhaps they will just be scrapped. 
All the cruise lines recently raised capital to stay solvent. It was the absolute worst time to do so. They had to give away so much to accomplish this. The interest rates bordered on usury. 
https://www.ship-technology.com/news/carnival-sell-six-cruise-ships-loss-4-4bn/

 

[mrlevin]

28 minutes ago, Wendy The Wanderer said:

I saw somewhere yesterday (lost the link), that Carnival Corp. is starting to sell off ships.  These are ships that they would have aged out of the various lines soon anyways, but they've hastened that process.  The question is, who would buy a cruise ship right now, even at fire-sale prices?

 

https://www.seatrade-cruise.com/news/costa-victoria-reported-sold-san-giorgio-del-porto

 

https://www.seatrade-cruise.com/news/saga-sapphire-sold-anex-tours-name-changes-blue-sapphire

 

All sorts of buyers out there; of course, many could go for scrap.  Pacific Princess is on the market if anyone wants to pick up a cruise ship.  I still haven't found the listing for the Navigator so maybe Regent is not marketing her.

 

Marc

[jawz33]

On 6/17/2020 at 11:19 AM, WNcruiser said:

Did anyone else notice in the Explore magazine that it shows some ships not starting until December or January? I don’t know when that was published but it seems they have known for a while cruises wouldn’t be sailing for many months. 

That is rather odd.  Navigator’s 16 nite NYC to Miami voyage on Oct 30 is omitted, while Mariner’s 16 night LA-Lima on Oct 29 is advertised.  Mariner’s LA-LA on Oct 22 is missing too.  Perhaps the unmentioned itineraries do not meet  Regent’s definition of 
“exotic”.

[mrlevin]

8 minutes ago, jawz33 said:

That is rather odd.  Navigator’s 16 nite NYC to Miami voyage on Oct 30 is omitted, while Mariner’s 16 night LA-Lima on Oct 29 is advertised.  Mariner’s LA-LA on Oct 22 is missing too.  Perhaps the unmentioned itineraries do not meet  Regent’s definition of 
“exotic”.

 

These are just the "exotic" cruises as explained in Post #13 above.  Doesn't anyone read an entire thread before posting? /s

 

Marc

Edited June 21, 2020 by mrlevin

[mrlevin]

Pullmantur cruises just filed for bankruptcy; it is a three ship Spanish line that is a Joint Venture with RCL.  May the chips continue to fall.

 

Marc

[greykitty]

6 minutes ago, mrlevin said:

Pullmantur cruises just filed for bankruptcy; it is a three ship Spanish line that is a Joint Venture with RCL.  May the chips continue to fall.

 

Marc

 

Chips falling indeed.  Or, reminding me of dominos a bit....

 

Looks like passengers booked will be moved to any of the other Royal Caribbean lines, and existing crew returned home safely.  I hope it works out for the crew and pax involved.

 

https://www.seatrade-cruise.com/news/pullmantur-files-reorganize-under-spanish-insolvency-terms

 

I'm not sure what, if any, material effect the Wirecard issues have on RCCI, but it's got to be another headache they didn't want.

 

https://maritime-executive.com/article/payment-vendor-wirecard-s-financial-scandal-may-involve-crew-wages

 

And, CCL suspended sailing through September 30. 

 

Also CMV was in emergency talks, as well as having some ships detained

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/17/cruise-and-maritime-voyages-emergency-talks-loan-deal-collapses  

 

https://www.euronews.com/2020/06/20/uk-authorities-detain-five-cruise-ships-over-welfare-concerns-for-crew

[Steve Q]

10 minutes ago, mrlevin said:

Pullmantur cruises just filed for bankruptcy; it is a three ship Spanish line that is a Joint Venture with RCL.  May the chips continue to fall.

 

Marc

They were 49% owned by Royal Caribbean!

 

Very happy that we received our refund from Regent last week. There was no way we were going to allow them to hold our money until some unknown date in the future. When any company is borrowing capital at 11-12% interest, they have significant issues. 
I had to ask myself if I would be willing to purchase those Bonds as a part of our portfolio. When the answer was “No”, that was a great help in deciding whether or not to accept the FCC.

 

https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/23124-pullmantur-files-for-reorganization.html

[Steve Q]

 

Just read a post on the HAL Board by “Himself” (I believe he is  a priest that often serves onboard many of their voyages). In his Post he states that both HAL and Seabourn are cancelling their cruises thru Nov 30. He also states that HAL will be reducing the number of ships they sail and will be a much smaller Line in the future. Not certain that this is true, but he is someone is usually pretty reliable.

 

 

[greykitty]

I have no idea where this might go - but apparently the EU may also not be so happy to welcome residents of the US as the EU begins relaxing restrictions.  Can't say I blame them.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/news/2020/06/23/eu-ban-american-travelers-might-prohibited-visiting-europe/3244710001/

[HaveWeMetYet]

4 hours ago, greykitty said:

I have no idea where this might go - but apparently the EU may also not be so happy to welcome residents of the US as the EU begins relaxing restrictions.  Can't say I blame them.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/news/2020/06/23/eu-ban-american-travelers-might-prohibited-visiting-europe/3244710001/

Heavily slanted political hit piece put out by a bunch of CNN reporters.

EU was not "miffed" at the US travel ban. They were for it and implemented it within the EU also.

The travel protocols all for all international travelers and not aimed at US citizens.

The report uses raw numbers of covid cases, not percentages.

An obvious sign of bias.

[greykitty]

Thanks for reading and providing an analysis.  

[Ladys Mom]

11 hours ago, HaveWeMetYet said:

Heavily slanted political hit piece put out by a bunch of CNN reporters.

EU was not "miffed" at the US travel ban. They were for it and implemented it within the EU also.

The travel protocols all for all international travelers and not aimed at US citizens.

The report uses raw numbers of covid cases, not percentages.

An obvious sign of bias.

The EU is considering banning US travelers because the percentage of new cases is going up not down.  You, who live in Oklahoma, must know that the number of new cases and hospitalizations has gone up exponentially in recent days.  No-one is deriding one country or another, it is just a matter of fact.  Until the US can reduce the number of new Covid-19 cases and especially hospitalizations and deaths, through at least the use of masks and social distancing, than other countries will be reluctant to admit us by land or by sea.

[mrlevin]

26 minutes ago, Ladys Mom said:

The EU is considering banning US travelers because the percentage of new cases is going up not down.  You, who live in Oklahoma, must know that the number of new cases and hospitalizations has gone up exponentially in recent days.  No-one is deriding one country or another, it is just a matter of fact.  Until the US can reduce the number of new Covid-19 cases and especially hospitalizations and deaths, through at least the use of masks and social distancing, than other countries will be reluctant to admit us by land or by sea.

 

The top five states in terms of cases per population are:

 

New York

New Jersey

Rhode Island

Massachusetts

Connecticut

 

Oklahoma is currently 41st.  Even my state of Texas which has been on a tear recently with new cases is 35th.  I wish that those in glass houses would not throw stones.

 

Marc

[Travelcat2]

Since different websites have varying information, it could be helpful to look at more than one source.  So, here are a couple of links:

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/coronavirus-count-state-day-2020-united-states-n1173421

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/map-track-summer-2020-coronavirus-hotspots-united-states-n1231332

 

This first link shows a listing of states (need to scroll down).  Since this is total number of cases rather than per population, the top five differ from what is posted above:

 

New York

California

New Jersey

Illinois

Texas

Edited June 24, 2020 by Travelcat2

[mrlevin]

6 minutes ago, Travelcat2 said:

This first link shows a listing of states (need to scroll down).  Since this is total number of cases rather than per population, the top five differ from what is posted above:

 

New York

California

New Jersey

Illinois

Texas

 

It is meaningless to look at cases by state instead of cases per population by state.  California and Texas are two biggest states by population while Illinois and New Jersey are 6th and 11th, respectively.  Back in 1975 when I took my first statistics course I had a textbook "How to Lie with Statistics," I still have that book today.

[Got2Cruise]

12 minutes ago, mrlevin said:

 

The top five states in terms of cases per population are:

 

New York

New Jersey

Rhode Island

Massachusetts

Connecticut

 

Oklahoma is currently 41st.  Even my state of Texas which has been on a tear recently with new cases is 35th.  I wish that those in glass houses would not throw stones.

 

Marc

New York currently has less than 1% of those being tested, being positive. Anyone in NY can get a free test very easily. What happened three months ago is irrelevant to being admitted to Europe today. NY NJ CT just announced if your state numbers are rising then you must be quarantined 14 days because you are a risk. 

[Got2Cruise]

2 minutes ago, mrlevin said:

 

It is meaningless to look at cases by state instead of cases per population by state.  California and Texas are two biggest states by population while Illinois and New Jersey are 6th and 11th, respectively.  Back in 1975 when I took my first statistics course I had a textbook "How to Lie with Statistics," I still have that book today.

Yeah seems you learned very well.