What I have learned today

[JB Books]

Unsubstantiated claims are easy to throw around. I've got a HAL Pacific coast cruise HOPEFULLY sailing this October.

[igraf]

21 minutes ago, JB Books said:

Unsubstantiated claims are easy to throw around. I've got a HAL Pacific coast cruise HOPEFULLY sailing this October.

 

The COVID-19 virus is still here.  Nothing has changed in that regard.  What could HAL do to make your cruise safe?  Have everyone fill out a form?  The only possible way to have a safe cruise right now is with 100% COVID-19 testing in the cruise terminal and no port stops.  Let's see, 1500 passengers at 15 minutes per test.....

 

I am involved with substantial projects in Europe and South America, and I can't even travel there now for business let alone as a tourist.

 

igraf

 

 

[npcl]

3 hours ago, RocketMan275 said:

 

No vaccine has ever been approved for any coronavirus.

What happens then?

No vaccine has ever been approved for primarily two reasons, outbreak too short and illness too minor.  For SARS and MERS there were vaccine candidates but the outbreaks did not last long enough to even get into clinical trials.  For the other Corona viruses the symptoms such as the common cold symptoms are not severe enough to be worth developing, after all the symptoms of the common cold can be caused by several different Corona and Rhino viruses.  So a vaccine for the common cold would mean many vaccines.  Not worth the effort.

Edited June 24, 2020 by npcl

[KroozNut]

17 minutes ago, npcl said:

No vaccine has ever been approved for primarily two reasons, outbreak too short and illness too minor.  For SARS and MERS there were vaccine candidates but the outbreaks did not last long enough to even get into clinical trials.  For the other Corona viruses the symptoms such as the common cold symptoms are not severe enough to be worth developing, after all the symptoms of the common cold can be caused by several different Corona and Rhino viruses.  So a vaccine for the common cold would mean many vaccines.  Not worth the effort.

 

Wow, Didn't know Dr Fauci frequented these boards..🙄

[Himself]

7 hours ago, Petronillus said:

I'm having a tough time right now with the "Re-Opening" guidelines. Here we have the risen Lord Jesus breathing on the apostles and thereby filling them with the new life and power of the Spirit, and yet we're supposed to see ourselves as emitting this noxious vapor cloud we have to protect each other from!

They are quite involved.

[npcl]

50 minutes ago, KroozNut said:

 

Wow, Didn't know Dr Fauci frequented these boards..🙄

I did spent 10+ years working for the FDA and another 10+ in the pharmaceutical industry at the VP level including being involved in targeting decisions for drug and vaccine development.

[npcl]

For those that want another opinion here is a Medscape article discussion why there is not a SARS or MERS vaccine

 

COVID-19 Data Dives: Why Don't We Have a Vaccine for SARS or MERS?

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/931226

 

SARS caused an explosive outbreak in 2003 (Figure 1). Fortunately, that outbreak was contained, in part because SARS-CoV caused severe illness that was less likely to be missed during tracing, and there was no presymptomatic or asymptomatic transmission. After being contained in 2003, there have been no SARS outbreaks since.

 

While several SARS vaccine candidates were developed, funding dried up to test them further. In addition, there has been no clear pathway for testing the efficacy of SARS vaccine and getting it approved for use. How can we determine whether a vaccine prevents SARS if there is no SARS to prevent? Thus, these candidates have been stalled at earlier stages of development.

 

MERS was first reported in 2012. Since then, there have been regular "spillover" events whereby the virus jumps from the camel reservoir into humans and may transmit directly between humans. Some early MERS outbreaks were explosive, including an exported outbreak in South Korea in 2015. But Saudi Arabia, where the majority of transmission occurs, has made great improvements to its infection control procedures to prevent hospital spread. As a result, recent outbreaks have been much smaller 

 

Organizations like the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) have been funding research for MERS vaccine candidates, but one persistent challenge is identifying strategies to evaluate the efficacy of these vaccines. Along with other researchers involved in the WHO R&D Blueprint, we have discussed potential strategies for a MERS vaccine efficacy trial. But given the relatively low incidence even in high-risk groups (camel workers, their families, healthcare workers), trials could need 100,000-plus participants, which isn't feasible. As a result, there still isn't a clear path forward for testing a vaccine and getting it approved by regulators.

[jay888]

Oxford University seem to be close to a  vaccine.  now testing on pigs which seem to be successful 

[cat shepard]

9 hours ago, npcl said:

I did spent 10+ years working for the FDA and another 10+ in the pharmaceutical industry at the VP level including being involved in targeting decisions for drug and vaccine development.

How much better to be known as someone, who shares his or her knowledge with all of us, than to be known as the author of snide remarks.

 

Thank you.

[wander]

Edit note - typed but not sent last evening - in the interim npcl wrote useful further information but I decided to send this in case it further helps folks understand the topic. (I write from the perspective of my background which includes serving 12 years on the Medical Research review Board for a Major medical University and 3 years for a non-university affiliated review board.)

 

One does not need to be a MD let alone Dr. Fauci to come up with npcl's explanation.  An MBA and some knowledge of how "Big Pharma" works would perhaps be as helpful, as would an understanding of what really goes into the work required to have drugs approved for human use.  At the "Big Pharma" Corporate level it is usually only the  Bottom Line that counts, i.e. how much profit can we generate by developing a drug (or drugs) to prevent or cure a medical illness/condition.  If viewed strictly from a Corporate financial perspective - this is a critical question for the Corporation to survive, attract investors, etc. They are not "Not for Profit" companies and the various levels(phases) of drug research are usually VERY expensive.  They do need to cover the costs, but we also see cases of "greed" on the part of these same corporations.  (I write from the perspective of my background which includes serving 12 years on the Medical Research review Board for a Major medical University and 3 years for a non-university affiliated review board.)

Edited June 24, 2020 by wander
acknowledge ncpl's further information while I slept.

[Time For Dreaming]

On 6/23/2020 at 12:20 AM, AtlantaCruiser72 said:

 

Sure about that??????  I just went on and it showed 65 results for September 27th through November 30th 2020. Not that any of them will operate, but they are showing as bookable. 

 

It must have been a glitch.  Sorry.  Attempted to do a mock Mexico booking for Nov. 2020 as a comparison to November 2021, but it wouldn't take after several attempts.  Then I went back to the Plan a Cruise page and saw the calendar blank for October and November.  

[JB Books]

One thing I do know - getting panicky or all worked up over things I have little control over sure won't help. My plan is to enjoy each day, make reasonable plans and take reasonable precautions, and let maters unfold as they inevitably will.

[AtlantaCruiser72]

24 minutes ago, JB Books said:

One thing I do know - getting panicky or all worked up over things I have little control over sure won't help. My plan is to enjoy each day, make reasonable plans and take reasonable precautions, and let maters unfold as they inevitably will.

 

agreed - I have a January 2021 cruise booked on Enchanted Princess.  Final not due until 11/10 - at that time we willd ecide whether to pay final or not.  I give the cruise about a 50/50 chance of being cancelled by Princess, and if they do cancel we will take the FCC and just travel later in 2021 or 2022 with them. 

 

Keeping an open, flexible mindset right now is the most important thing! 

[cbr663]

23 hours ago, richwmn said:

Agreed, but the original assertion was that there were no listings until December

and I was just allowed to do a dummy booking on that Sep 27th cruise up to the point of making a payment.

 

 

The original assertion was that HAL are cancelling, which I take to mean that they plan to cancel but have not yet done so. 

[RocketMan275]

1 minute ago, cbr663 said:

 

The original assertion was that HAL are cancelling, which I take to mean that they plan to cancel but have not yet done so. 

If HAL cancels their cruises through 30 November, then we will cancel our 9 December cruise.  

[richwmn]

14 minutes ago, cbr663 said:

 

The original assertion was that HAL are cancelling, which I take to mean that they plan to cancel but have not yet done so. 

The assertion, which I quoted from Himself, was that HAL was not listing anything until December. That was the "original" assertion I was speaking of, not the first post in the thread.

 

[npcl]

6 hours ago, wander said:

Edit note - typed but not sent last evening - in the interim npcl wrote useful further information but I decided to send this in case it further helps folks understand the topic. (I write from the perspective of my background which includes serving 12 years on the Medical Research review Board for a Major medical University and 3 years for a non-university affiliated review board.)

 

One does not need to be a MD let alone Dr. Fauci to come up with npcl's explanation.  An MBA and some knowledge of how "Big Pharma" works would perhaps be as helpful, as would an understanding of what really goes into the work required to have drugs approved for human use.  At the "Big Pharma" Corporate level it is usually only the  Bottom Line that counts, i.e. how much profit can we generate by developing a drug (or drugs) to prevent or cure a medical illness/condition.  If viewed strictly from a Corporate financial perspective - this is a critical question for the Corporation to survive, attract investors, etc. They are not "Not for Profit" companies and the various levels(phases) of drug research are usually VERY expensive.  They do need to cover the costs, but we also see cases of "greed" on the part of these same corporations.  (I write from the perspective of my background which includes serving 12 years on the Medical Research review Board for a Major medical University and 3 years for a non-university affiliated review board.)

most vaccine research funding comes from non-pharma sources. Pharma is more involved with manufacture and distribution, sometimes clinical as well. In the case of SARS and MERS funding from those sources dried up not for profit issues, but more because of no way to move forward and test efficacy.

[Coral]

15 hours ago, jay888 said:

Oxford University seem to be close to a  vaccine.  now testing on pigs which seem to be successful 

They still need to do trials on people then. Several stages I am sure.

[KirkNC]

2 minutes ago, Coral said:

They still need to do trials on people then. Several stages I am sure.

Plus prove it’s safe and effective, then manufacturing then distribution.  I survey I saw said 20% of those surveyed won’t even take it.

[babydrum]

20 hours ago, npcl said:

For those that want another opinion here is a Medscape article discussion why there is not a SARS or MERS vaccine

 

COVID-19 Data Dives: Why Don't We Have a Vaccine for SARS or MERS?

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/931226

 

SARS caused an explosive outbreak in 2003 (Figure 1). Fortunately, that outbreak was contained, in part because SARS-CoV caused severe illness that was less likely to be missed during tracing, and there was no presymptomatic or asymptomatic transmission. After being contained in 2003, there have been no SARS outbreaks since.

 

While several SARS vaccine candidates were developed, funding dried up to test them further. In addition, there has been no clear pathway for testing the efficacy of SARS vaccine and getting it approved for use. How can we determine whether a vaccine prevents SARS if there is no SARS to prevent? Thus, these candidates have been stalled at earlier stages of development.

 

MERS was first reported in 2012. Since then, there have been regular "spillover" events whereby the virus jumps from the camel reservoir into humans and may transmit directly between humans. Some early MERS outbreaks were explosive, including an exported outbreak in South Korea in 2015. But Saudi Arabia, where the majority of transmission occurs, has made great improvements to its infection control procedures to prevent hospital spread. As a result, recent outbreaks have been much smaller 

 

Organizations like the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) have been funding research for MERS vaccine candidates, but one persistent challenge is identifying strategies to evaluate the efficacy of these vaccines. Along with other researchers involved in the WHO R&D Blueprint, we have discussed potential strategies for a MERS vaccine efficacy trial. But given the relatively low incidence even in high-risk groups (camel workers, their families, healthcare workers), trials could need 100,000-plus participants, which isn't feasible. As a result, there still isn't a clear path forward for testing a vaccine and getting it approved by regulators.

Thanks, that's interesting info.  This is the first time I've seen an explanation for why there isn't a SARS vaccine.  It gives me hope that we may be able to create one in an expedited time frame.

[510picker]

I wonder when the official announcement will come. I have a November 11th cruise booked and highly doubt we will be going, regardless of what HAL decides. 

[Crazy For Cats]

22 minutes ago, 510picker said:

I wonder when the official announcement will come. I have a November 11th cruise booked and highly doubt we will be going, regardless of what HAL decides. 

Our next scheduled cruise is November 8.  If HAL doesn’t cancel before cancellation fees start we will.  If HAL announces a resumption of sailing plan we will reconsider.

[Charlie1422]

We have been booked on NA 12/05/2020 for almost 2 years. 

I wish HAL would go ahead and cancel until sometime next year. I know it is not anyone's fault, but just tired of waiting for the inevitable.

[510picker]

1 hour ago, Crazy For Cats said:

Our next scheduled cruise is November 8.  If HAL doesn’t cancel before cancellation fees start we will.  If HAL announces a resumption of sailing plan we will reconsider.

If HAL resumes cruising October 1st, I would consider going on our November 11th cruise. I definitely do not want to be on one of the first cruises out when they start back up. 

[JB Books]

For anyone in a higher risk group, there's no reason to risk taking a cruise this year. Even for those others willing to assume the risk, anybody who' cruise booked for this year will probably have it canceled. I've got a cruise on HAL scheduled for October, and figure that it's maybe got a 1 in 3 shot at best of taking place... but who knows?