Are vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?

[nocl]

On 4/18/2021 at 7:02 AM, Homosassa said:

The subset may need to be even smaller if the problem is linked to the permanent changes in a women's immune system due to being pregnant and hosting a foreign object for any length of time (I agree with Nocl's previously post about pregnancy).

 

There may also be  problem may also be a woman's willingness to reveal that there was a pregnancy (full term or earlier termination because of miscarriage or choice).

I believe it was cangelMD that came up with the tie in with pregnancy.

[LGW59]

27 minutes ago, nocl said:

I believe it was cangelMD that came up with the tie in with pregnancy.

OMG this thread has evolved into pregnancy...

[nocl]

2 hours ago, mayleeman said:

@TeeRick Sounds like J&J intentionally are trying to confuse people by using similar sounding words to hide the clotting issue. As the article you cited pointed out, there have been many reports of thromobocytopenia associated with Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. That is the condition of severe platelet loss, which has effects the opposite of clotting.

 

The article seems wrong in stating as a certainty that the CDC determined in February there is no evidence the condition is related to those vaccines. That may have been a tentative conclusion. I found one study reported in late March (I think) that noted that although the overall incidence is similar to the general population, the patients in that study overwhelmingly had the condition arise after the first shot. They said they would expect, if it were unrelated, the distribution to be relatively equal between the first and second shots. But it was a small study, several dizen at most, and there have been only about 100 total (IIRC). Another report said there has been only one fatality so far (a Florida doctor). Apparently 80% of cases have been women from 25 to 50, and they are uncertain if there were any hidden underlying issues in common.

 

I only know about this because of a huge amount of reading I did on the weekend after running into one of our neighbors whose daughter is in critical condition with a platelet count of 3 (<10,000 is considered a medical emergency). Major swelling and bruising just by being touched. She had the first Moderna shot @ 10 days before. She has had 3 platelet transfusions, and it is uncertain how she will fare and what the long-term consequences will be.

 

I was reading dozens of sources (trying to cill out crap like the NY Post!) without noting specific references, unfortuately, so I can't cite specifically to the studies I looked at. I just think that the medical profession should be cautious about concluding that there is no relationship simply by using statistical analysis of comparing the overall incidence to the extremely small group of these cases.

The problem with J&J and AZ does involve thrombocytopenia.  But it is a very specific form called HIT (Heparin induced Thrombocytopenia).  That is where the bodies immune system starts manufacturing an antibody that binds to heparin (the bodies natural anticoagulant).  That basically renders it inert. At that point the platelets start clotting.  That removes enough of the platelets from the blood that you get thrombocytopenia.

 

There have been cases of thrombocytopenia with the other vaccines.  For example in the early days of the Pfizer vaccine use there was a well publicized case of a doctor in Florida that developed thrombocytopenia.  So there certainly are cases.  The primary difference is that with AZ and J&J  the cases fit a very specific set of conditions, is a specific demographic (in the case of J&J young women between 18 and 48).  It is that patterns that would have triggered the signal in the VAERS system.  You be be pretty sure that with the issues with J&J and AZ the other vaccines are also being scrutinized for the same thing.  At this point it has not created the similar signal and a lot of Pfizer and Moderna  have been used.  

 

With your neighbors daughter have they tested for HIT?

Edited April 19, 2021 by nocl

[4774Papa]

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/pfizer-requests-fda-clearance-vaccine-kids-ages-12-15-n1263649

 

[4774Papa]

https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n979

[mayleeman]

1 hour ago, nocl said:

With your neighbors daughter have they tested for HIT?

 

I would assume so. The family is pretty well off and I believe they would get her into the best care possible. He said they have been testing for all types of things.

 

 

[NMTraveller]

8 hours ago, TeeRick said:

So back to travel and cruising.  I guess a vaccine passport required by the EU or individual EU countries, or the UK, will come with a set of conditions as to what types are acceptable for entry into their countries.  I assume the US will not take this step.  It was hard enough to get people to wear a simple mask.  So my worry as a US citizen wanting to travel to an EU country and cruise is can I get an acceptable vaccine passport in the US?  Will a CDC card do?  Or do I need an electronic record?  If so will a private company that I have to pay for my record be acceptable to travel to the EU?  

I am wondering the same.  However I am even wondering if overseas travel will happen to any degree this summer.  The airlines are moving their big overseas jets to domestic routes.  

[cangelmd]

4 hours ago, nocl said:

I believe it was cangelMD that came up with the tie in with pregnancy.

Uh, not me unless I said at some point that clotting risk increases with pregnancy, that's been known for many years.

 

2 hours ago, mayleeman said:

 

I would assume so. The family is pretty well off and I believe they would get her into the best care possible. He said they have been testing for all types of things.

 

 

Very sorry to hear about your friend's daughter.

Nocl is right, at least for AZ, I haven't seen any of the similar study for Jand J, but the AZ researchers connected the anti-platelet antibodies to adenovirus as a putative mechanism.

 

Let me clarify - some immune related thrombocytopenias cause bleeding and some cause clotting (just par for the course with coagulation, it is extremely complex and hard to parse out). Heparin-induced thrombocytopenia (HIT) causes clotting and immune thrombocytopenia (ITP, also to us old timers, idiopathic thrombocytopenia purpura, that was the original meaning for the acronym, but everybody got it wrong all the time, so the acronym gradually changed) causes bleeding.

ITP is more common, we worry about HIT in post-op heart patients particularly, and test for it a lot, but HIT is actually quite rare.

ITP is a young adult disease, in my world we see it in pregnancy, as well as spontaneously.

I think of ITP when I hear a 3K platelet count, vs HIT, but says nothing about whether or not it is related to the vaccine, other than the antibodies seen in the AZ study were PF4 antibodies like HIT.

 

[mayleeman]

@cangelmd Thanks to both you and @nocl for the extra information. It all sounds horrible.

 

To clarify, it was a platelet count of 3, according to the dad. I found it hard to believe (seems like 3,000 makes more sense--how could a test that generally reports on even 000's be precise to single digits?), but an article I read featured a woman whose count was zero. My wife, with years of blood-banking and lab experience, took it at face value at the time, but now thinks maybe 3,000 to be more likely and that maybe he misunderstood the second-hand report (his wife is in Penn with the daughter, he is here in SC for now). 

Edited April 20, 2021 by mayleeman

[TeeRick]

17 hours ago, 4774Papa said:

https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n979

Yes good news for countries deciding to delay a second dose in order to get more people vaccinated.

[TeeRick]

14 hours ago, NMTraveller said:

I am wondering the same.  However I am even wondering if overseas travel will happen to any degree this summer.  The airlines are moving their big overseas jets to domestic routes.  

There are people on these boards from the US signing up for APEX cruises out of Greece starting in July.  But currently US citizens cannot get there or any other EU country for that matter.  But Celebrity is still happily taking their money.

[D C]

23 hours ago, TeeRick said:

So back to travel and cruising.  I guess a vaccine passport required by the EU or individual EU countries, or the UK, will come with a set of conditions as to what types are acceptable for entry into their countries.  I assume the US will not take this step.  It was hard enough to get people to wear a simple mask.  So my worry as a US citizen wanting to travel to an EU country and cruise is can I get an acceptable vaccine passport in the US?  Will a CDC card do?  Or do I need an electronic record?  If so will a private company that I have to pay for my record be acceptable to travel to the EU?  

I dislike the "Vaccine Passport" moniker when the requirement is really for an acceptable proof of vaccination.

 

The level of acceptability in the eyes of the destination country is going to be the key.  Generally speaking, relatively few Americans travel out of the country each year, and most that do go to either Canada or Mexico.   55 million to Can/Mex with under 4 million to 3rd place UK according to: https://www.statista.com/chart/18742/most-popular-destinations-with-us-travelers/

 

I could see that Canada and Mexico may have different requirements than the EU and UK.  With relatively few travelers going to Europe, hopefully the verification process is simple with few people trying to find a way around it.  I suspect fewer people may take international leisure trips in the next year or two.  

[Homosassa]

20 hours ago, nocl said:

I believe it was cangelMD that came up with the tie in with pregnancy.

 

15 hours ago, cangelmd said:

Uh, not me unless I said at some point that clotting risk increases with pregnancy, that's been known for many years.

20 hours ago, LGW59 said:

OMG this thread has evolved into pregnancy...

 

 

Sorry, I really thought it was someone on this thread that talked about the changes in a woman's immune system to allow the "foreign object" to survive.

 

As far as the thread evolving into pregnancy, the changes in a woman's body during pregnancy that basically makes a pregnant female into  a third gender and, in some of the changes, remains a permanent change (think the circulating antibodies to the foreign blood cells that escape and remain in the mother's circulation).

 

If the problem with the J&J vaccine  is a problem in females of child bearing age, then the possibility of the changes in the woman's immune system due to pregnancy being a cause of the problem needs to be investigated. 

[markeb]

6 minutes ago, Homosassa said:

Sorry, I really thought it was someone on this thread that talked about the changes in a woman's immune system to allow the "foreign object" to survive.

I think that may have been me. I was responding to cangelmd’s post. 

[nocl]

47 minutes ago, D C said:

I dislike the "Vaccine Passport" moniker when the requirement is really for an acceptable proof of vaccination.

 

The level of acceptability in the eyes of the destination country is going to be the key.  Generally speaking, relatively few Americans travel out of the country each year, and most that do go to either Canada or Mexico.   55 million to Can/Mex with under 4 million to 3rd place UK according to: https://www.statista.com/chart/18742/most-popular-destinations-with-us-travelers/

 

I could see that Canada and Mexico may have different requirements than the EU and UK.  With relatively few travelers going to Europe, hopefully the verification process is simple with few people trying to find a way around it.  I suspect fewer people may take international leisure trips in the next year or two.  

If we are successful in getting control of Covid19 inside of the US as result of vaccination then I expect even more tightly focused attention by the government on international travel until vaccinations catch up in the rest of the world.  Consequently requirements for vaccination, and/or testing will be a part of international travel in/out of the US for a while.  

 

The recent change by Department of State in raising the travel warnings is just a sign of that change in focus.

[D C]

26 minutes ago, nocl said:

If we are successful in getting control of Covid19 inside of the US as result of vaccination then I expect even more tightly focused attention by the government on international travel until vaccinations catch up in the rest of the world.  Consequently requirements for vaccination, and/or testing will be a part of international travel in/out of the US for a while.  

 

The recent change by Department of State in raising the travel warnings is just a sign of that change in focus.

Right.  I think the question isn't whether immunizations will be required for international travel, but rather what form of proof is required.   The burden shouldn't be too bad given the relatively small number of people who travel to the EU for example. 

[4774Papa]

3 hours ago, TeeRick said:

There are people on these boards from the US signing up for APEX cruises out of Greece starting in July.  But currently US citizens cannot get there or any other EU country for that matter.  But Celebrity is still happily taking their money.

We have a family group of four that just booked a week tour of Iceland for early August.   Iceland is open if you have had a vaccine.   

[cangelmd]

4 hours ago, Homosassa said:

 

 

Sorry, I really thought it was someone on this thread that talked about the changes in a woman's immune system to allow the "foreign object" to survive.

 

As far as the thread evolving into pregnancy, the changes in a woman's body during pregnancy that basically makes a pregnant female into  a third gender and, in some of the changes, remains a permanent change (think the circulating antibodies to the foreign blood cells that escape and remain in the mother's circulation).

 

If the problem with the J&J vaccine  is a problem in females of child bearing age, then the possibility of the changes in the woman's immune system due to pregnancy being a cause of the problem needs to be investigated. 

I think someone did, maybe Markeb...

Pregnancy and the immune system is a complicated topic, and well outside my bailiwick. But going way back and woefully overgeneralizing - pregnancy greatly diminishes the immune response - as you said, allows tolerance to the fetus. This is a form of immunosuppression, just a natural one. Pregnancy is a risk factor for flu, even today, an occasional pregnant woman will have all those bad things like cytokine storm, and respiratory failure from flu. I just saw in Brazil the health authorities were asking women t9 delay pregnancy because they weren’t doing well with the variant. Pregnant immune systems are not as robust.

As to pregnancy inducing antibodies, it is much less than you think, usually to blood group antigens because fetal blood leaks across the placenta in tiny amounts all through pregnancy.

Women’s immune systems are just wired differently, likely as a mechanism to tolerate the foreign, and are more prone to autoimmune conditions. But those mostly are independently of pregnancy.

 

 I want to go cruising!

[TeeRick]

20 hours ago, 4774Papa said:

We have a family group of four that just booked a week tour of Iceland for early August.   Iceland is open if you have had a vaccine.   

We are thinking of doing something similar this summer.

[4774Papa]

https://www.the-sun.com/news/2744100/shingles-new-rare-side-effect-covid-vaccine/

 

I have had the shingles vaccine, so perhaps I am good.

[TeeRick]

36 minutes ago, 4774Papa said:

https://www.the-sun.com/news/2744100/shingles-new-rare-side-effect-covid-vaccine/

 

I have had the shingles vaccine, so perhaps I am good.

It is interesting that vaccines are being associated with every conceivable human affliction.   So people were free of all of these common problems until they got a COVID vaccine?  I know reasonable people that refuse to get vaccinated because the media keeps creating these health links to vaccinations.  With 100's of millions of people vaccinated to date, the link to these vaccines can be created for just about anything.  Nobody seems to understand or care about causative links.  Or know the difference with casual links or true correlations. 

 

By the way- my local reaction to Shringrix shots was much worse than my Moderna shots.  No contest!

[D C]

1 hour ago, TeeRick said:

It is interesting that vaccines are being associated with every conceivable human affliction.   So people were free of all of these common problems until they got a COVID vaccine?  I know reasonable people that refuse to get vaccinated because the media keeps creating these health links to vaccinations.  With 100's of millions of people vaccinated to date, the link to these vaccines can be created for just about anything.  Nobody seems to understand or care about causative links.  Or know the difference with casual links or true correlations. 

 

By the way- my local reaction to Shringrix shots was much worse than my Moderna shots.  No contest!

Take the number of people diagnosed with a given disease or ailment in a given year.

Take the number of those people who also received a covid jab in the same year and did so prior to the eventual diagnosis.

 

CLEARLY must have been the vaccine.  

 

This is an indictment of both the American educational system and our media.

[4774Papa]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/macron-says-france-finalizing-plans-to-ease-restrictions-for-vaccinated-american-travelers/vi-BB1fMwWb?ocid=msedgdhp

France opening up in May?

[mayleeman]

1 hour ago, D C said:

This is an indictment of both the American educational system and our media.

 

I blame Rx ads with the 1 minute of marketing and 5 minutes of every possible side effect or other maladies that "have happened" with no information about causation or likelihood. We are now hyper-informed to pay attention to the negative and not informed about how to analyze anything.

 

Your info and the others contributing here are far more education for us cruise readers than most people can get.

[Roger88]

Vaccines dont last long. Virus can mutate and it does mutate and in order to be fully protected you need to be vaccinated on a year basis. In any case, as long as more than half of the population is vaccinated you can be fine