Are vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?

[ipeeinthepool]

11 minutes ago, grandgeezer said:

You do know that polygraph results are recognized in a court of law? 
Also consider the time it would take to administer it, taking hooking it up then taking it off for a ship that holds close to 3,000 passengers.

 

Probably about as long as it takes to wait for the results of a Covid test

[D C]

1 hour ago, TeeRick said:

The various vaccination cards are just being used for a reminder that you need a second dose and when you need a second dose.  I do not believe that they will be official documents that can be forged or otherwise misused.  All this talk about notaries, polygraphs, etc.  will just make the public even more paranoid about vaccines.  We just need to make the personal choice to be vaccinated (or not).  When I get vaccinated I will be satisfied that I have chosen to protect myself.  That is all any of us can really do.  That is what I do every year for the influenza vaccine.  I have no idea whether my next door neighbor or the guy in the airline seat next to me got a flu vaccine.  Up to them. 

 

Any form of proof is pointless... until you need to show proof in order to do something like go on a cruise.  Then 'real' proof becomes important.

 

 

[markeb]

1 hour ago, TeeRick said:

The various vaccination cards are just being used for a reminder that you need a second dose and when you need a second dose.  I do not believe that they will be official documents that can be forged or otherwise misused.  All this talk about notaries, polygraphs, etc.  will just make the public even more paranoid about vaccines.  We just need to make the personal choice to be vaccinated (or not).  When I get vaccinated I will be satisfied that I have chosen to protect myself.  That is all any of us can really do.  That is what I do every year for the influenza vaccine.  I have no idea whether my next door neighbor or the guy in the airline seat next to me got a flu vaccine.  Up to them. 

 

I'm with you. Those look to be a quick method of 1) reminding you when you're due a second dose, and maybe as importantly, 2) informing the vaccine site which vaccine you had, and therefore which one you need. Interesting question in the US as to whether you're primary care manager would update your medical records off that card if you don't get your vaccine from your PCM  or an in-network pharmacy.

 

The "International certificate of vaccination or prophylaxis" (yellow card or book) remains the internationally recognized certificate of vaccination. It has its problems, obviously, but it remains a paper-based system because there are member states under the UN/WHO who frankly don't have good electronic systems.

[grandgeezer]

1 hour ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

Probably about as long as it takes to wait for the results of a Covid test

Or more likely, not.

You have to ask several questions, that you know the answer to, to set the baseline to compare the meaningful question to. Then a few more that you know the answer to, to verify it. Been there done that, as an employment requirement.

If it takes five minutes to do the whole thing, times 3,000 passengers, with one person doing it, is 250 hours. If you have ten people doing it, that's 25 hours. I'm betting the Covid test results will be quicker.

[phoenix_dream]

On 12/6/2020 at 9:28 AM, mimbecky said:

Unfortunately, there are many people (me and DH) who are going to be caught in that 55-64 group who are "healthy" and therefore wont have vaccine option until the very last phase in our state. Retired a few years early, not in working force so definitely last. Our health official states widely available in April.  I think that is a bit optimistic but I'd be thrilled.

I happen to fall into the third group - over 65.  But before me are 'essential workers'.  I would be ok with that except that in the US, 70% of the working population is considered essential.  Ridiculous!  I was thinking as an older person I might luck out in early 2021, but unless they modify the description to include only truly essential workers, we will be well into 2021 as well.  Considering your group and mine are the primary Celebrity customers, it could be a long, long time before we can sail.

[TeeRick]

Most cruises that I have been on in recent memory when you are checking in give you a paper to sign (ie, Public Health Questionaire) after answering maybe 3 or 4 simple questions.  I am sure you have all seen these and signed these.  Do you think for one second that everybody waiting to board the ship is completely honest with this?   I don't think so.  Some people will also not be honest about Covid tests, vaccines, known exposure to Covid-positive people, etc.  So the best you can hope for is to protect yourself.  No matter what requirements are in place some will play games to beat them.  Sad commentary I know.  

[phoenix_dream]

On 12/6/2020 at 8:49 AM, D C said:

 

In the US, the epidemic will be over if less than 15% of the population become vaccinated if those 15% fall into 60+ age group. 

 

Age 65+ accounts for roughly 80% of covid deaths but only about 16% of the population.  Eliminate those deaths and the disease will be nowhere near the epidemic threshold. 

 

"Herd Immunity" is purely a hypothetical threshold. Too many models with too many inputs and assumptions for it to be discussed in any practical sense using numbers. 

 

From a cruising perspective, it would be prudent for the cruise lines to say that vaccination is required for anyone over a certain threshold. 55, 60, or 65 would make sense.   55+ accounts for over 90% of deaths.  It would be silly to disallow someone younger and at less risk to sail without a vaccine. 

There is some logic in this argument, but also some errors.  Related to your first statement - that would not mean the epidemic was over.  It would mean only that a lot fewer deaths would occur from the disease.    Epidemics are determined by the number of illnesses, not by the number of deaths from the illness.  In point of fact, vaccinating that group first would actually slow down the chance of the epidemic ending, as those folks are not the ones spreading the illness -they are the ones dying from it.

 

As regards requesting vaccinations by certain age groups - getting past my initial surge of anger at the ageism implied here - it is not silly at all to not allow someone younger to not have a vaccine.  As you state, 90% of deaths (or thereabouts - not sure of the actual number) are from people 55 and older.  That means 10% of the deaths are from younger people.  All it takes is one of those younger people onboard to get sick and the cruise could potentially be ruined for many other passengers onboard, if not all.  Add to that the point that while the vaccines are purported to be very effective, they are not 100% effective.  

[TeeRick]

7 minutes ago, phoenix_dream said:

I happen to fall into the third group - over 65.  But before me are 'essential workers'.  I would be ok with that except that in the US, 70% of the working population is considered essential.  Ridiculous!  I was thinking as an older person I might luck out in early 2021, but unless they modify the description to include only truly essential workers, we will be well into 2021 as well.  Considering your group and mine are the primary Celebrity customers, it could be a long, long time before we can sail.

Maybe states will come up with their own definitions of essential workers.  That should be interesting!  In my state of PA back in March when we had the lockdown the governor published a list of essential businesses that could stay open.  It seemed like it was quite random to many of us.  And it changed constantly.  

[D C]

35 minutes ago, phoenix_dream said:

There is some logic in this argument, but also some errors.  Related to your first statement - that would not mean the epidemic was over.  It would mean only that a lot fewer deaths would occur from the disease.    Epidemics are determined by the number of illnesses, not by the number of deaths from the illness.  In point of fact, vaccinating that group first would actually slow down the chance of the epidemic ending, as those folks are not the ones spreading the illness -they are the ones dying from it.

 

As regards requesting vaccinations by certain age groups - getting past my initial surge of anger at the ageism implied here - it is not silly at all to not allow someone younger to not have a vaccine.  As you state, 90% of deaths (or thereabouts - not sure of the actual number) are from people 55 and older.  That means 10% of the deaths are from younger people.  All it takes is one of those younger people onboard to get sick and the cruise could potentially be ruined for many other passengers onboard, if not all.  Add to that the point that while the vaccines are purported to be very effective, they are not 100% effective.  

 

The CDC uses percent of deaths caused by a particular disease to determine if a disease is above or below the epidemic threshold.  For COVID, they're using Pneumonia and Influenza criteria and comparing death rate to the expected death rate in the absence of the disease.  The generally accepted level is that when a particular disease accounts for ~7% of all deaths, it's an epidemic.   If deaths were rare and SARS-COV2 was not, then it would be endemic, not epidemic.   

 

There should be no inferred ageism.  Vaccinate those most vulnerable to the disease.  If this were the Spanish Flu pandemic, we'd be focusing on vaccinating younger people.  

 

The case of an unvaccinated 'youth' on board means that other controls must be in place, but the relative lack of severity of covid as age decreases would mean that those controls could be less 'imposing' as the risk to other passengers is low due to them either being vaccinated or in an age group where the risk is low.  Granted, it would be up to the other passengers to determine if they're comfortable with that arrangement and want to sail or not.   I suspect that would mean fewer unvaccinated 45+ people on Carnival. 

 

This link should be to the data sorted by age group.  If you crunch the numbers on percentages, they show that only 3% of deaths have been in people under 45.   

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

 

 

 

 

[D C]

1 hour ago, TeeRick said:

Most cruises that I have been on in recent memory when you are checking in give you a paper to sign (ie, Public Health Questionaire) after answering maybe 3 or 4 simple questions.  I am sure you have all seen these and signed these.  Do you think for one second that everybody waiting to board the ship is completely honest with this?   I don't think so.  Some people will also not be honest about Covid tests, vaccines, known exposure to Covid-positive people, etc.  So the best you can hope for is to protect yourself.  No matter what requirements are in place some will play games to beat them.  Sad commentary I know.  

That's why I suggested a notary.  Being read an oath asking about the accuracy of the document is a bit more "official" than the form at the port.   Penalties for falsifying should be substantial as well so as to be a deterrent.  

[D C]

1 hour ago, TeeRick said:

Maybe states will come up with their own definitions of essential workers.  That should be interesting!  In my state of PA back in March when we had the lockdown the governor published a list of essential businesses that could stay open.  It seemed like it was quite random to many of us.  And it changed constantly.  

If it goes like the first haphazard shutdowns, it's going to be a mess.  

[markeb]

1 hour ago, D C said:

 If deaths were rare and SARS-COV2 was not, then it would be endemic, not epidemic.

 

I'll go with the rest of your post, but would disagree with this. The CDC is monitoring an epidemic threshold defined by the expected fatality rate of pneumonia and influenza for quantitative purposes and comparing it to actual reported deaths from Pneumonia, Influenza, and COVID, which they're calling PIC (apparently HHS has recruited too many people from DOD and had to create an acronym...). But they've always used standard textbook definitions for endemic and epidemic, which relate to disease occurrence, not infection fatality rates, case fatality rates, or mortality.

 

endemic the constant presence of an agent or health condition within a given geographic area or population; can also refer to the usual prevalence of an agent or condition.

 

epidemic the occurrence of more cases of disease, injury, or other health condition than expected in a given area or among a specific group of persons during a particular period. Usually, the cases are presumed to have a common cause or to be related to one another in some way (see also outbreak).

 

From https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dsepd/ss1978/glossary.html

 

I guess there's an case that "death from COVID-19" is a health condition, but I've never seen that used in epidemiology. 

 

SARS-CoV-2 would become endemic when it drops down to some baseline level and continues to be present in the population at that level. Again, that's independent of any fatality or mortality rate.

[lyndarra]

The "light at the end of the tunnel" has dimmed.

[Ken the cruiser]

8 minutes ago, lyndarra said:

The "light at the end of the tunnel" has dimmed.

Why do you say that with Pfizer, Moderna and Astra Zeneca all close to getting their vaccines approved?

[Tippyton]

6 minutes ago, lyndarra said:

The "light at the end of the tunnel" has dimmed.

 

 "...and don't it feel right this time..."

 

"When it comes to being the soothing light at the end of the tunnel....it's just a freight train coming your way..." 

- Metallica, No Leaf Clover

 

Great song, great album

 

 

[markeb]

15 minutes ago, lyndarra said:

The "light at the end of the tunnel" has dimmed.

 

3 minutes ago, Ken the cruiser said:

Why do you say that with Pfizer, Moderna and Astra Zeneca all close to getting their vaccines approved?

I’m assuming you’re concerned about production and global distribution given Pfizer’s announcements today, and some internal US politics we’ll stay away from. 
 

There are still a couple of ‘traditional’ vaccine candidates out there that are running slower but should be highly producible, such as Novavax. And I’m cautiously optimistic they should be similarly protective. 
 

Hang in there. We’re still half or more full here!

[K.T.B.]

1 hour ago, Ken the cruiser said:

Why do you say that with Pfizer, Moderna and Astra Zeneca all close to getting their vaccines approved?

 

This Thursday Pfizer meets with the FDA to apply for an EUA and Moderna does the same on December 17th.  No idea about AstraZeneca.

 

By the way, excellent article about the vaccines here:  https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/covid-vaccine-almost-here-here-s-what-you-should-know-n1250269

Edited December 8, 2020 by K.T.B.

[nocl]

19 hours ago, nomad098 said:

Even easier with the US vaccine card, Wyoming Department of Health actual provide a template you can print out at home.

However, if a travel company includes the appropriate language in their cruise contract concerning such documents (basically the individual attesting that the provided documents are accurate and correct), then if someone were to have COVID and it is later shown that the documentation was not valid they could be accountable for damages, which for the cruise line could easily bankrupt many individuals.

 

So if one forges a document they can probably get on board, and if nothing happens fine, but if things go south and the person is found to have or catches COVID, then the documents could be investigated and things could end pretty badly for the person using forged vaccination documents.

[lyndarra]

2 hours ago, markeb said:

 

I’m assuming you’re concerned about production and global distribution given Pfizer’s announcements today, and some internal US politics we’ll stay away from. 
 

There are still a couple of ‘traditional’ vaccine candidates out there that are running slower but should be highly producible, such as Novavax. And I’m cautiously optimistic they should be similarly protective. 
 

Hang in there. We’re still half or more full here!

I heard today on ABC that the initial supply by Pfizer is 100 million doses and that the offer of a follow up order was declined by the US government. This would mean that 50 million will vaccinated and everyone else will now have to wait for supply from elsewhere or if/when Pfizer receives another order which it can fill sometime in the future after other countries' orders. Did I understand it correctly?

[markeb]

5 minutes ago, lyndarra said:

I heard today on ABC that the initial supply by Pfizer is 100 million doses and that the offer of a follow up order was declined by the US government. This would mean that 50 million will vaccinated and everyone else will now have to wait for supply from elsewhere or if/when Pfizer receives another order which it can fill sometime in the future after other countries' orders. Did I understand it correctly?

Apparently. Pfizer has other global commitments as well. Not identified in what I’ve seen. Maybe some contracts in Australia?

[lyndarra]

6 minutes ago, markeb said:

Apparently. Pfizer has other global commitments as well. Not identified in what I’ve seen. Maybe some contracts in Australia?

Australia has an order of 10 million doses with plans to start vaccinations in March.

[yorky]

Vaccinations have now started in the UK, first individual a 90 year old female already in hospital.

[nomad098]

2 hours ago, nocl said:

However, if a travel company includes the appropriate language in their cruise contract concerning such documents (basically the individual attesting that the provided documents are accurate and correct), then if someone were to have COVID and it is later shown that the documentation was not valid they could be accountable for damages, which for the cruise line could easily bankrupt many individuals.

 

So if one forges a document they can probably get on board, and if nothing happens fine, but if things go south and the person is found to have or catches COVID, then the documents could be investigated and things could end pretty badly for the person using forged vaccination documents.

 

According to a post on CC somebody is faking test results now to be able to fly.

People have broken the rules before, lied on the health declarations and probably a lot worse things.

Throwing someone overboard is not socially acceptable but it happens.

 

[nomad098]

1 hour ago, yorky said:

Vaccinations have now started in the UK, first individual a 90 year old female already in hospital.

 

Just been watching the news, aptly the 2nd person was a man called William Shakespeare from Warwick. For those not in the know this is close to where the playwright came from.  

[nomad098]

3 hours ago, lyndarra said:

I heard today on ABC that the initial supply by Pfizer is 100 million doses and that the offer of a follow up order was declined by the US government. This would mean that 50 million will vaccinated and everyone else will now have to wait for supply from elsewhere or if/when Pfizer receives another order which it can fill sometime in the future after other countries' orders. Did I understand it correctly?

 

It makes sense not to be reliant on 1 vaccine just in case there are issues later.

The UK and others have invested in monoclonal antibodies as an alternative for those who cannot take the vaccines.

Other vaccines will cost a fraction of the price when they come online.

The US has invested close to 1/2 billion dollars into Moderna it make sense to use there supplies if they come online.