Cruise Pricing

[Trixie21]

Let's assume cruising gets up and running successfully sometime towards the end of this year (albeit with a limited number of ships).

After a few weeks of successful cruises what does everyone think will happen to pricing?

Do you think there will be a surge of bookings which will push up prices? Especially given that there may initially be limited capacity on the ships.

Or do you think demand will remain subdued for an extended period keeping prices at current levels or below?

Just curious on everyone's opinion  - we were looking at a 10 night southern Caribbean on Vision in February 2022 and just not sure yet whether we want to book just yet- thinking I would like to see cruises restarted before I book any more cruises - we have 2 scheduled for next year so far (first one not until June in Europe so hopefully plenty of time to get things going again)

[ipeeinthepool]

Does the current price for this February 2022 Vision sailing look like an acceptable price to you?  Are you ok with giving Royal at more money at this time?  If the answer to both of these questions is yes and you can book with a refundable deposit, go ahead and book now.  You can always reprice the cruise if prices go down.  Longer cruise to the Caribbean in February are always some of the more desirable itineraries and there may not be a large price reduction.  Now more than ever I would book directly with Royal or a very reputable TA to protect myself from TA's that might be having financial problems or might go out of business.

[Biker19]

3 hours ago, Trixie21 said:

After a few weeks of successful cruises what does everyone think will happen to pricing?

Very difficult to guess with so much uncertainty and pricing will likely vary wildly between ship/dates.

[bouhunter]

3 hours ago, ipeeinthepool said:

Does the current price for this February 2022 Vision sailing look like an acceptable price to you?  Are you ok with giving Royal more money at this time?  If the answer to both of these questions is yes and you can book with a refundable deposit, go ahead and book now.  You can always reprice the cruise if prices go down.  

A perfect answer to the OP's question 🙂

 

Edited September 6, 2020 by bouhunter

[LuCruise]

Hard to say, but as long as FCC goes out that far, then I think pricing will be up.  There have been many cancelled cruises and a lot have one or more FCCs to use.

[Trixie21]

4 hours ago, ipeeinthepool said:

Does the current price for this February 2022 Vision sailing look like an acceptable price to you?  Are you ok with giving Royal at more money at this time?  If the answer to both of these questions is yes and you can book with a refundable deposit, go ahead and book now.  You can always reprice the cruise if prices go down.  Longer cruise to the Caribbean in February are always some of the more desirable itineraries and there may not be a large price reduction.  Now more than ever I would book directly with Royal or a very reputable TA to protect myself from TA's that might be having financial problems or might go out of business.

The current price looks OK to me. We are from the UK so refundable deposits are not a thing - as for repricing we can currently do that under cruise with confidence , but previously we could not and had to lose our deposit and rebook if we wanted to reprice. Not sure if our ability to reprice without penalty will continue , so it is important to make the best judgement we can as to when to book. I've become quite good at judging when to book over the years , however the current situation is a complete unknown hence my post asking for other peoples opinions on future pricing. And I realise it is only an opinion , as no one , not even Royal Caribbean , probably even know.

[PhillyFan33579]

Obviously a lot will depend on the demand when cruising resumes from US ports. Based on cruise sites like this one there are a lot of people who are eagerly awaiting to cruise again. However, I have heard from countless friends, neighbors, co-workers, etc. who know we cruise often who have said they will never/no longer go on cruises in the future.
 

From a business/economic standpoint cruise lines are going to need to increase revenue to enable them to pay back the massive debts they have accumulated during this pandemic. Based on that I expect prices in most if not all areas (cruise fares, excursions, drinks, merchandise, speciality restaurants, etc.) to increase in the future. 

[Goodtime Cruizin]

I think pricing will be based on how well the ship is being booked. As some have said, some iteneraries just fill up fast. I believe we'll see increases in those cruises. Other iteneraries which are slower to fill, I doubt we'll see increases execpt for the normal increases as the sail date gets closer. The last thing any business wants to do is price themselves out of the market. In general, cruising is now taboo. Most people would not even begin to consider booking a cruise. The cruise market has lost a tremendous amount of it's market share. It will take years to regain the public's confidence and to reach the same numbers pre-covid. So... increasing the price only compounds this problem. The industry will be walking a fine line on pricing. But to say one should expect increased pricing to make up for a shutdown IMO would not be accurate. 

[Goodtime Cruizin]

BTW, we're already witnessing the airline industry making changes in an effort to regain its position pre-covid. I expect the cruiseline industry to carefully do the same, thus Lift & Shift, Cruise w/ Confidence etc. Hack even alcohol packages were discounted for a limited amount of sales. 

Edited September 6, 2020 by Goodtime Cruizin

[Tree_skier]

7 hours ago, Trixie21 said:

Do you think there will be a surge of bookings which will push up prices?

Yes.  The initial cruises that leave from US ports will be closely watched by the media and will be reported on extensively.  After a few weeks of successful cruises, like what we're seeing with MSC in Italy, there will be a crush to book and get on board.  With the limited capacity that they will start with, demand will outstrip supply by a massive number.  Fundamental microeconomic principles work 100% of the time.

 

7 hours ago, Trixie21 said:

Just curious on everyone's opinion  - we were looking at a 10 night southern Caribbean on Vision in February 2022 and just not sure yet whether we want to book just yet- thinking I would like to see cruises restarted before I book any more cruises

Book with a refundable deposit and lock in the pricing now.  If pricing drops you can get a price reduction. If you don't like how things look when it all kicks off you can cancel without any cost to you.  

[Tree_skier]

3 hours ago, LuCruise said:

Hard to say, but as long as FCC goes out that far, then I think pricing will be up.  There have been many cancelled cruises and a lot have one or more FCCs to use.

This is also a big factor in pricing.  I can't see any reason to expect a downturn in pricing.  There is just to much FCC floating around out there that needs to get used.

[Tree_skier]

2 hours ago, PhillyFan33579 said:

From a business/economic standpoint cruise lines are going to need to increase revenue to enable them to pay back the massive debts they have accumulated during this pandemic. Based on that I expect prices in most if not all areas

While fixed costs like debt repayment obviously play a role in pricing structure, demand is king.  Cruiselines can and expect to operate at a loss for an extended period of time while consumer confidence in the product is rebuilt.  I don't think that debt is something that is going to be repaid off the backs of the cruisers willing to cruise in the early stage.  Debt repayment will be stretched over decades, once markets develop confidence in their restart plan, with a series bond offerings.

[Tapi]

Well. I can tell you what I’ve experienced. I booked a cruise on MSC about a month ago. They were offering all sorts of crazy promotions including reduced fares, double past guest discount, kids sail free, double past guest points, onboard credit, reduced deposit, and most importantly, the ability to cancel until 48 hours before departure without penalty. 
 

Then MSC successfully restarted cruising in the Mediterranean about 3 weeks ago with a lot of fanfare. Since then, the fare for the cruise that I had booked before the restart has now TRIPLED, and most of the promotions that I took advantage of are gone. Interestingly, not only did the cruise fare triple, but the port taxes and fees are now double what they were when I booked. I believe that the drastic jump in fares was due to an increase in bookings after the restart. It gave people the confidence to book.

 

I wouldn’t be surprised if we see something similar across the board. Initially, we may see some good deals, but as cruise lines restart, and people get excited about cruising again (increasing demand while supply is still limited), we will most likely see a jump in pricing. 

Edited September 6, 2020 by Tapi

[Tree_skier]

2 hours ago, Goodtime Cruizin said:

BTW, we're already witnessing the airline industry making changes in an effort to regain its position pre-covid. I expect the cruiseline industry to carefully do the same, thus Lift & Shift, Cruise w/ Confidence etc. Hack even alcohol packages were discounted for a limited amount of sales. 

I just purchased the drink package for my Hawaii cruise next May for $40 a day.  I was booked on the same cruise last year that was unfortunately cancelled at the end of March and the cheapest I ever saw the drink package, for a year running up to the cancellation, was $48 a day. It usually hovered around $52 a day.

[bigrednole]

I expect fares to increase because of lower capacity. Its only logical. Then, if a sailing is overbooked and they do not have enough volunteers to change cruises, you can bet the lowest fare prices are the ones that will get the boot. I also expect the cruise lines to not offer much incentive either to lower the capacity. The reason is it won't be their fault for the reduced capacity. If I recall correctly, the port fees are for the ship and not the passengers. The port fees are evenly spread across all passengers on board. With 50% capacity, you can expect 2x port fees. 

 

Don't get me wrong, this is all positive news. It is just going to be a new way of cruising and the first month or two will be guinea pig cruises. As the cruise lines build positive results of covid-free cruises, more will open.

[grandgeezer]

8 hours ago, ipeeinthepool said:

Does the current price for this February 2022 Vision sailing look like an acceptable price to you?  Are you ok with giving Royal at more money at this time?  If the answer to both of these questions is yes and you can book with a refundable deposit, go ahead and book now.  You can always reprice the cruise if prices go down.  Longer cruise to the Caribbean in February are always some of the more desirable itineraries and there may not be a large price reduction.  Now more than ever I would book directly with Royal or a very reputable TA to protect myself from TA's that might be having financial problems or might go out of business.

I book through an online agency and I have for the last seventeen years. In every instance, the charge on my credit card for down payment and final payment has been right from the cruise line I booked with. No worries.

[PhillyFan33579]

2 hours ago, Tree_skier said:

While fixed costs like debt repayment obviously play a role in pricing structure, demand is king.  Cruiselines can and expect to operate at a loss for an extended period of time while consumer confidence in the product is rebuilt.  I don't think that debt is something that is going to be repaid off the backs of the cruisers willing to cruise in the early stage.  Debt repayment will be stretched over decades, once markets develop confidence in their restart plan, with a series bond offerings.

While I agree with most of your points,  cruise lines need to meet their debt obligations. If they are not able to do that, you will likely see cruise line(s) go under. If there is not enough demand to meet a cruise line(s) debt obligations, It will be difficult for a cruise line to survive. 

[Tree_skier]

40 minutes ago, PhillyFan33579 said:

While I agree with most of your points,  cruise lines need to meet their debt obligations.

I agree completely. I just think that unless the demand ramps up sufficiently for them raise prices raising prices only decreases demand thereby decreasing overall revenue.  To me a more likely scenario is a series of 5, 10 and 20 year bonds.  

 

With evidence of a successful  relaunch they can get their bond rating up off the B1 floor and start working towards the Baa2 rating they have usually sustained and not have to pay usurious rates from the folks at Morgan Stanley. 

 

I agree with your statement if there is not enough demand it will be difficult to meet debt obligations and they will not survive.  That is why depressing demand by inflating prices to pay short term debt obligations is a losing strategy.  If not the way I suggest above, somehow Royal has to move short term debt into long term debt.  Beyond that most of the rest of it is above my pay grade.

[Tree_skier]

10 hours ago, ipeeinthepool said:

Now more than ever I would book directly with Royal or a very reputable TA to protect myself from TA's that might be having financial problems or might go out of business.

I just booked a cruise on Friday with my TA.  My deposit was charged to my visa by Royal Caribbean.

[ipeeinthepool]

18 minutes ago, Tree_skier said:

I just booked a cruise on Friday with my TA.  My deposit was charged to my visa by Royal Caribbean.

 

It's not only having the deposit sent directly to the cruise line but the availability of the TA during the pandemic.  You want the TA to be available to make any necessary changes or possible cancellations.  If your TA goes out of business or is only working very limited hours it might make it difficult.  Most of us don't need any more problems this year.

Edited September 6, 2020 by ipeeinthepool

[molly361]

7 minutes ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

It's not only having the deposit sent directly to the cruise line but the availability of the TA during the pandemic.  You want the TA to be available to make any necessary changes or possible cancellations.  If your TA goes out of business or is only working very limited hours it might make it difficult.  Most of us don't need any more problems this year.

I have a VERY available and accessible TA and I believe that @Tree_skier does as well😇

[ipeeinthepool]

1 minute ago, molly361 said:

I have a VERY available and accessible TA and I believe that @Tree_skier does as well😇

 

Excellent,  many people aren't as lucky.

[Tree_skier]

15 minutes ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

It's not only having the deposit sent directly to the cruise line but the availability of the TA during the pandemic.  You want the TA to be available to make any necessary changes or possible cancellations.  If your TA goes out of business or is only working very limited hours it might make it difficult.  Most of us don't need any more problems this year.

My TA wears a red cape.  I have no fears 🙂 

[ipeeinthepool]

32 minutes ago, Tree_skier said:

I just booked a cruise on Friday with my TA.  My deposit was charged to my visa by Royal Caribbean.

 

Are you finding good deals on cruises or are you just booking cruises for the next few months that you believe will be cancelled so you can get the additional 25% on an FCC that you plan on using in the future.

[ipeeinthepool]

2 minutes ago, Tree_skier said:

My TA wears a red cape.  I have no fears 🙂 

 

I get the feeling that your TA might be someone that follows the CC Celebrity board.