What will happen today with the CDC?

[chengkp75]

51 minutes ago, PhillyFan33579 said:

 

Until someone shows definitive proof based on extensive testing, no one is going to convince me sailing on a cruise ship is any more “dangerous” when it comes to this virus than being in extremely close proximity of other people on an airplane, a train, a subway, a bus, etc. I know from your previous posts you are a big supporter of the CDC, but it appears the CDC just has a personal vendetta against the cruise industry. I still have not seen one study proving being on a cruise ship significantly increases your chances of catching this virus. 

As I've said before, if the CDC had a vendetta against the cruise industry, they could have very effectively shut it down years, if not decades ago, simply by removing the VSP.

 

And, again, you misunderstand the CDC's concern.  The CDC is not concerned with whether you or anyone contracts covid on a cruise ship.  They care about the potential for transmission into the US after the cruise.  You may have noticed that the strongest, and most difficult for the cruise lines to meet, of the no sail requirements, have to do with what happens after someone becomes infected, and what happens to that person (i.e. are they kept onboard or landed in the US).  And, while there has obviously been transmission by people on airplanes, I have not seen any data to indicate someone has become infected, in local transmission, while on the plane.  There have been cases that we all know of where community transmission has happened on a ship.  This is why even on a ship with only 20 crew, we take covid remediation measures so strongly.  While we are uncommonly safe within our "bubble" on the ship, we ruthlessly follow mitigation methods when dealing with people "outside our bubble" (shoreside personnel), because we know that once it is on the ship, we are all likely to get it.

[MsTabbyKats]

1 hour ago, xDisconnections said:

I’m curious if you would feel different should your primary residence be located in an open state like Florida instead of one like New York.

LOL....DH and I discuss "moving to FL" often (not covid related...heat related)...and no way!  I prefer B'way to alligators.

 

But, if I lived in FL (big IF) and were a true Floridian (not a transplanted NYer) and had a Floridian mentality I'd probably say "let's sail".

 

But, I was born and raised here...plan to die here...and we are  "a very methodical and logical people".  We're kind of trained to avoid danger.

 

Edited October 30, 2020 by MsTabbyKats

[jimbo5544]

1 hour ago, chengkp75 said:

The CDC has stood by its recommendations for resuming sailing, right from the April 9th update to the no sail order.  They list specific requirements needed to restart cruising, and require the cruise lines to promulgate "appropriate, actionable, and robust" plans to meet those requirements.  So, the CDC has met its mandate in its area of expertise, infectious disease.  Where is the cruise lines' "robust" and "actionable" plans in their area of expertise, operating cruise ships?

My post on their performance was in relation to the virus.

[jimbo5544]

38 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

As I've said before, if the CDC had a vendetta against the cruise industry, they could have very effectively shut it down years, if not decades ago, simply by removing the VSP.

 

And, again, you misunderstand the CDC's concern.  The CDC is not concerned with whether you or anyone contracts covid on a cruise ship.  They care about the potential for transmission into the US after the cruise.  You may have noticed that the strongest, and most difficult for the cruise lines to meet, of the no sail requirements, have to do with what happens after someone becomes infected, and what happens to that person (i.e. are they kept onboard or landed in the US).  And, while there has obviously been transmission by people on airplanes, I have not seen any data to indicate someone has become infected, in local transmission, while on the plane.  There have been cases that we all know of where community transmission has happened on a ship.  This is why even on a ship with only 20 crew, we take covid remediation measures so strongly.  While we are uncommonly safe within our "bubble" on the ship, we ruthlessly follow mitigation methods when dealing with people "outside our bubble" (shoreside personnel), because we know that once it is on the ship, we are all likely to get it.

I will end with this post on this thread until the CDC gets off its butt and takes action.  I understand your view f the CDC.  I have a different one.  They are the center for disease control.  My view of their performance with the entire virus (more than as it relates to  cruising) is way different than yours (which I respect).  Their recommendations have changed greatly, sometimes on the same day.  Their management contradicts itself on preset releases, I can go on and on.  You have made the point various times that they set the requirements and the cruise lines had done little or nothing to mitigate.  If true, and the cruise lines were stumbling or having issues, then the CDC should assist.  Without getting into the politics that some here desperately want to do, they cannot get along with our own government.  In my view, and it light of the current place we are at with battling the virus, I think they are doing a particularly lousy job.  The view is not of them having a vendetta, but the evidence, or lack thereof is fairly damning.

 

The bottom line is cruises need to resume and need to start somewhere.  Wouldn’t the world be better off of the CDC was their partner in doing so instead of the albatross around their necks.  Just my 2 cents.    

[quattrohead]

Framework for Conditional Sailing Order for Cruise Ships

October 30, 2020 Update

On October 30, 2020, CDC issued a Framework for Conditional Sailing Order. This Order is effective upon signature and will soon be published in the Federal Register.

This Order shall remain in effect until the earliest of

• The expiration of the Secretary of Health and Human Services’ declaration that COVID-19 constitutes a public health emergency,
• The CDC Director rescinds or modifies the order based on specific public health or other considerations, or
• November 1, 2021.

See the attached Order (print-only) pdf icon[PDF – 40 pages] for the full requirements.

[Bgcruising]

So we are good to go in 2021??

Edited October 30, 2020 by Bgcruising

[morningstarme]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/cdc-conditional-sailing-order-allows-174601332.html

[slavens_09]

12 minutes ago, Bgcruising said:

So we are good to go in 2021??

 

No it's saying that the conditional sail order is in effect until Nov. 1 2021

[Earthworm Jim]

The CDC still has the Level 3 Travel Notice recommending travelers defer all cruise travel worldwide though. Maybe they will lift that if the cruise industry can successfully complete the new phased approach to resume cruising. These are the phases the CDC outlines:

 

CDC will take a phased approach to resuming cruise ship passenger operations in U.S. waters. The initial phases will consist of testing and additional safeguards for crew members. CDC will ensure cruise ship operators have adequate health and safety protections for crew members while these cruise ship operators build the laboratory capacity needed to test future passengers. Subsequent phases will include simulated voyages to test cruise ship operators’ ability to mitigate COVID-19 risk, certification for ships that meet specific requirements, and a phased return to cruise ship passenger voyages in a manner that mitigates COVID-19 risk among passengers, crew members, and U.S. communities.

Edited October 30, 2020 by Earthworm Jim

[kdr69]

A step forward i believe finally 

[PointNemo]

14 minutes ago, kdr69 said:

A step forward i believe finally 

Perhaps, but also one littered with new obstacles and challenges. And if you read the 40-Page order, the CDC is leaving the door open to additional mandates and regulations.

 

I see a very difficult start ahead and any meaningful resumption of service will not happen until Spring in earnest.

 

This is essentially and amended NOS now turn into permanent regulation

[BlerkOne]

1 hour ago, chengkp75 said:

As I've said before, if the CDC had a vendetta against the cruise industry, they could have very effectively shut it down years, if not decades ago, simply by removing the VSP.

 

 

 

Pretty much. The CDC has a job to do and isn't running a popularity contest or for reelection.

[lobster1313]

1 minute ago, PointNemo said:

Perhaps, but also one littered with new obstacles and challenges. And if you read the 40-Page order, the CDC is leaving the door open to additional mandates and regulations.

 

I see a very difficult start ahead and any meaningful resumption of service will not happen until Spring in earnest.

 

This is essentially and amended NOS now turn into permanent regulation

Pretty much incorporates a lot of what CLIA and the cruise lines have proposed so they will be sailing soon not November but probably before the end of the year. The no sail order would still be in place if they're not going to be ready till the spring.

[PointNemo]

10 minutes ago, regoodwinjr said:

Pretty much incorporates a lot of what CLIA and the cruise lines have proposed so they will be sailing soon not November but probably before the end of the year. The no sail order would still be in place if they're not going to be ready till the spring.

Did you read the framework for "Conditional Sailing" starting around page 19?

 

Cruise operators must conduct simulation voyages with "volunteer" subjects (18 years and older) and after demonstrating that they are capable to meet these new orders and have effective COVID mitigation plans in place, then they will be able to obtain a CDC issued COVID Conditional Sailing certificate to operate vessels in the jurisdiction of US waters and ports.

 

That doesn't sound to me that is something they can get done in 60 days, much less 30 days as you alluded to.

Edited October 30, 2020 by PointNemo

[kdr69]

3 minutes ago, PointNemo said:

Perhaps, but also one littered with new obstacles and challenges. And if you read the 40-Page order, the CDC is leaving the door open to additional mandates and regulations.

 

I see a very difficult start ahead and any meaningful resumption of service will not happen until Spring in earnest.

 

This is essentially and amended NOS now turn into permanent regulation

The door is always left open no matter what contract you read for that matter, and yes difficult but not anything that the Cruise industry hasn't stated themselves in their plans or that hasn't been discussed in these forums.  

-reduced capacity and itineraries on start up

-requirements for rapid testing 

-requirements for quarantining

-requirements for embarkation and debarkation and increased screening capabilities

-requirements for excursions, on board dining and entertainment

-requirements to protect the Crew

What im saying is that at least now they have the green light to begin the process of start up and resuming operations which is what they have been waiting for.  Its not designed to make it easy by any means(nor should it be at this point in time) but it does FINALLY give direction to go forward.  I see it as a NO Sail order turned into a Conditional sail order until next year when it will be re-evaluated.   Now its up to the Cruise lines to get it working.

 

[Moviela]

I have read the new order and while I disagree with Director Redfield's narrative concerning the comparison with Princess ships with the experience in Wuhan, China, there is at least a somewhat reasonable path to resume cruise operations. 

[chengkp75]

While backing off of the private health care and quarantine facilities, it still leaves the large hurdle for the cruise lines to get written agreements with local health care providers at the port to accept infected passengers and crew, and agreements for quarantine accommodations.  What was also quietly slipped in is the statement that whenever there are enough cases onboard to reach a trigger level, the cruise must end, and the cruise line disembark everyone using these contracted services to transport people.  It also quietly states that the cruise line has to advise passengers that in the event of a cruise being cut short, that passengers' "future travel may be restricted", meaning they may be forced into quarantine at the port.

[lobster1313]

22 minutes ago, PointNemo said:

Did you read the framework for "Conditional Sailing" starting around page 19?

 

Cruise operators must conduct simulation voyages with "volunteer" subjects (18 years and older) and after demonstrating that they are capable to meet these new orders and have effective COVID mitigation plans in place, then they will be able to obtain a CDC issued COVID Conditional Sailing certificate to operate vessels in the jurisdiction of US waters and ports.

 

That doesn't sound to me that is something they can get done in 60 days, much less 30 days as you alluded to.

Royal and other cruise lines mentioned test cruises prior to sailing so this was already part of the restart plans. This means that they have already been preparing and will begin cruising soon. 

 

Edited October 30, 2020 by regoodwinjr

[Moviela]

What is exactly is a "simulated" cruise? Does this mean it could be conducted in a motel? Perhaps a conference room?

 

I agree with the chief about what to do if a cruise must be cancelled midway.  I would not like to be dumped off, sick or healthy, in the Bahamas when Miami or Port Canaveral is a few hours away. 

[DCGuy64]

1 hour ago, slavens_09 said:

 

No it's saying that the conditional sail order is in effect until Nov. 1 2021

Sort of. There are three conditions under which the order could be lifted. 11/1/2021 is the "worse case" scenario, it could be lifted anytime before that if conditions warrant.

[ProgRockCruiser]

21 minutes ago, Moviela said:

What is exactly is a "simulated" cruise? Does this mean it could be conducted in a motel? Perhaps a conference room?

 

I agree with the chief about what to do if a cruise must be cancelled midway.  I would not like to be dumped off, sick or healthy, in the Bahamas when Miami or Port Canaveral is a few hours away. 

I think the intent is to operate a full cruise like a real one, but with volunteers (crew?) acting the part of regular customers.  So the whole process would be executed, but not as a revenue generating sailing, and probably not to any real foreign ports - instead a US port would pretend to be a port visit, processing pax off and on in the same fashion as visiting Amber Cove or something.

 

Definition from the new CDC announcement (had to type by hand, stupid document is locked even for text copying):

 

"Simulated voyage means a mock voyage or series of mock voyages designed and implemented in so far as possible to replicate real world onboard conditions of cruising with measures in place to mitigate the risk of COVID-19."

 

Details of the required factors for such a simulated cruise start on page 24 of the CDC announcement, and include simulating stopping at a private island.

Edited October 30, 2020 by ProgRockCruiser

[chengkp75]

28 minutes ago, Moviela said:

What is exactly is a "simulated" cruise? Does this mean it could be conducted in a motel? Perhaps a conference room?

 

I agree with the chief about what to do if a cruise must be cancelled midway.  I would not like to be dumped off, sick or healthy, in the Bahamas when Miami or Port Canaveral is a few hours away. 

A simulated cruise, as defined clearly in the CDC statement, is one with "volunteer" passengers, who know they are "test guinea pigs" that will have much of the normal cruise activities (embarkation, muster drill, shows, etc) that will test the ability to maintain the procedures and protocols, and will also include simulations of dealing with infected people and quarantining those contact traced to them, etc.

 

The thing is, the CDC does not want you dumped in Miami or Port Canaveral, they want you to be dealt with by contracted services that the cruise lines have set up in advance.

[seaman11]

2 hours ago, quattrohead said:

Framework for Conditional Sailing Order for Cruise Ships

October 30, 2020 Update

On October 30, 2020, CDC issued a Framework for Conditional Sailing Order. This Order is effective upon signature and will soon be published in the Federal Register.

This Order shall remain in effect until the earliest of

• The expiration of the Secretary of Health and Human Services’ declaration that COVID-19 constitutes a public health emergency,
• The CDC Director rescinds or modifies the order based on specific public health or other considerations, or
• November 1, 2021.

See the attached Order (print-only) pdf icon[PDF – 40 pages] for the full requirements.

what does it mean 2021?   next year or is that a missprint? 

[lobster1313]

1 minute ago, seaman11 said:

what does it mean 2021?   next year or is that a missprint? 

No misprint that the restrictions/protocols stays till that date unless one of the other things happen. 

[seaman11]

1 minute ago, regoodwinjr said:

No misprint that the restrictions/protocols stays till that date unless one of the other things happen. 

so whats the actual story here?  sailing can happen or only test sailings? Does not seem so clear cut.  thanks