New vaccine

[Eddie99]

A side bar but a very positive one - the team behind the Oxford vaccine is now a long way towards a malaria vaccine

Monumental news for the whole world but particularly poorer countries

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/05/team-behind-oxford-covid-jab-start-final-stage-of-malaria-vaccine-trials

[Selbourne]

9 hours ago, wowzz said:

Sorry, but I agree with John. JVT said that vaccinating the elderly first would cause a 99% decline in deaths and hospital admissions.

To be fair, that's a ballsy statement, but the logic is spot on. Vaccinate those that will be most likely to cause a drain on the NHS first is the logical way to go.

Without being callous, whilst vaccinating NHS staff first sounds good in principle,  it doesn't reduce the pressure on beds. Vaccinating the elderly first relieves the pinch point.

I can quite understand why you and John heard it differently, as I thought it was unclear as to what the ‘99%’ referred to initially, but I asked my wife how she understood it and she said straight away that the 99% referred to all currently stated priority groups (I.e. over 50’s), so I rewound it and listened again and then understood it to be exactly as Tring describes in post 646. Vaccinating the elderly first was indeed said, as it will make the biggest difference, but I believe that the 99% was said in the different context of ALL the ‘priority’ groups. I don’t recall age 65 being specifically mentioned but, if you think about it, you would have to protect all the over 50’s to protect 99% of those who have succumbed to this disease. Over 80’s or indeed all those over 65’s would protect the vast majority, but not 99%. I believe that the ONS has stated that 90% of deaths have been people over 65, so 99% by age 50 would make sense based on that statistic. 
 

I tend to agree with you, in part, about NHS staff being prioritised over, say, those aged 70-80, as it won’t, in itself, have such a positive impact on deaths, but I think they are already back peddling a bit on that and now seem to be saying the priority will be those NHS staff who might be exposed to greater (Covid) risk. Given that there are 1.4m NHS staff and vaccine supplies seem to be limited at present, that would make more sense. However, the flip side to that debate is that I have heard of a number of people who were admitted to hospital with a non-Covid condition and contracted the virus whilst in hospital and then died from it. In fact, that’s exactly what happened to a neighbour of mine. You also have the issue of NHS staff off work isolating. Therefore, getting as many NHS staff protected as possible will indirectly save lives. As to whether vaccinating the 70-80 age group quicker than NHS staff is more sensible is a worthy debate, but the decision has been made and I think there’s a bit of politics at play there. 

[Josy1953]

11 hours ago, ace2542 said:

They are vaccinating in Moscow on Monday apparently. Anything to be first hey.

I would hate to be there, vaccination without thorough testing eeeek

[Dermotsgirl]

17 minutes ago, Selbourne said:

I can quite understand why you and John heard it differently, as I thought it was unclear as to what the ‘99%’ referred to initially, but I asked my wife how she understood it and she said straight away that the 99% referred to all currently stated priority groups (I.e. over 50’s), so I rewound it and listened again and then understood it to be exactly as Tring describes in post 646. Vaccinating the elderly first was indeed said, as it will make the biggest difference, but I believe that the 99% was said in the different context of ALL the ‘priority’ groups. I don’t recall age 65 being specifically mentioned but, if you think about it, you would have to protect all the over 50’s to protect 99% of those who have succumbed to this disease. Over 80’s or indeed all those over 65’s would protect the vast majority, but not 99%. I believe that the ONS has stated that 90% of deaths have been people over 65, so 99% by age 50 would make sense based on that statistic. 
 

I tend to agree with you, in part, about NHS staff being prioritised over, say, those aged 70-80, as it won’t, in itself, have such a positive impact on deaths, but I think they are already back peddling a bit on that and now seem to be saying the priority will be those NHS staff who might be exposed to greater (Covid) risk. Given that there are 1.4m NHS staff and vaccine supplies seem to be limited at present, that would make more sense. However, the flip side to that debate is that I have heard of a number of people who were admitted to hospital with a non-Covid condition and contracted the virus whilst in hospital and then died from it. In fact, that’s exactly what happened to a neighbour of mine. You also have the issue of NHS staff off work isolating. Therefore, getting as many NHS staff protected as possible will indirectly save lives. As to whether vaccinating the 70-80 age group quicker than NHS staff is more sensible is a worthy debate, but the decision has been made and I think there’s a bit of politics at play there. 

I’ve just looked at various news reports about what Van Tam said, and, although some reports don’t make it very clear, I concur with you that ‘the first wave’ is everybody down to the age of 50, and the vulnerable under 50s, plus care and health workers. If there’s a good take up of the vaccine in this massive group of people, then the deaths could be cut by 99%.

 

As it looks as if we can ‘do’ 400000 people in December, it is fairly clear that this is going to be a time consuming process. 

[Harry Peterson]

14 minutes ago, Josy1953 said:

I would hate to be there, vaccination without thorough testing eeeek

From earlier reports they hacked into the Oxford University/AstraZeneca systems, so they’re probably working on the basis that if they’ve stolen the vaccine they can use the research as well.  😃

[Selbourne]

20 minutes ago, Dermotsgirl said:

I’ve just looked at various news reports about what Van Tam said, and, although some reports don’t make it very clear, I concur with you that ‘the first wave’ is everybody down to the age of 50, and the vulnerable under 50s, plus care and health workers. If there’s a good take up of the vaccine in this massive group of people, then the deaths could be cut by 99%.

 

As it looks as if we can ‘do’ 400000 people in December, it is fairly clear that this is going to be a time consuming process. 

Thanks Dermotsgirl. Just heard someone from NHS Providers on the TV saying that they hope to have 4m doses by end of December, so that’s enough for 2m people. Groups 1 and 2 alone are around 6m people. As someone in the 55-60 group who will have the vaccine the first day that it’s available to me, I would dearly love to think that I will have it by Easter, as some are saying, but I just can’t see it. The logistical challenge is absolutely ginormous and the need for 2 doses, plus all the usual pre-jab questions and form filling are not going to make this a walk in the park. I hope that the daily Coronavirus stats will add a ‘numbers vaccinated to date’ tally, as that will be fascinating to see. I hope with all my heart that I will be proved wrong. 

[Dermotsgirl]

48 minutes ago, Selbourne said:

Thanks Dermotsgirl. Just heard someone from NHS Providers on the TV saying that they hope to have 4m doses by end of December, so that’s enough for 2m people. Groups 1 and 2 alone are around 6m people. As someone in the 55-60 group who will have the vaccine the first day that it’s available to me, I would dearly love to think that I will have it by Easter, as some are saying, but I just can’t see it. The logistical challenge is absolutely ginormous and the need for 2 doses, plus all the usual pre-jab questions and form filling are not going to make this a walk in the park. I hope that the daily Coronavirus stats will add a ‘numbers vaccinated to date’ tally, as that will be fascinating to see. I hope with all my heart that I will be proved wrong. 

The logistics of this are mind boggling. To get the vaccines in the right place at the right time, to get the people in place to administer the vaccines, and to get the people in the right place at the right time to have the vaccines delivered to them.

 

Even in optimum circumstances this is all jaw droppingly big. But played out with a backdrop of the thing that’s happening on 1st January and starting it in winter, with the risk of bad weather to contend with as well.... the challenge is almost too big to imagine.

 

I’m in the over 60s category, last time I looked I was 7th on the pecking order for vaccinations. I think the earliest I can expect to be done is in the summer, if it all goes very well. Like you, I would love to get my jab by Easter, but I don’t think it’s possible.

To be honest, I’m not even thinking about it too much.  I’m living in the location with the highest infection rate in the country and it’s still rising. I’m just getting my head down to endure the winter - the spring is too far away for me to be dwelling on! 

 

 

[Selbourne]

2 minutes ago, Dermotsgirl said:

The logistics of this are mind boggling. To get the vaccines in the right place at the right time, to get the people in place to administer the vaccines, and to get the people in the right place at the right time to have the vaccines delivered to them.

 

Even in optimum circumstances this is all jaw droppingly big. But played out with a backdrop of the thing that’s happening on 1st January and starting it in winter, with the risk of bad weather to contend with as well.... the challenge is almost too big to imagine.

 

I’m in the over 60s category, last time I looked I was 7th on the pecking order for vaccinations. I think the earliest I can expect to be done is in the summer, if it all goes very well. Like you, I would love to get my jab by Easter, but I don’t think it’s possible.

To be honest, I’m not even thinking about it too much.  I’m living in the location with the highest infection rate in the country and it’s still rising. I’m just getting my head down to endure the winter - the spring is too far away for me to be dwelling on! 

 

 

We desperately need vaccines from the other manufacturers to make this anything like do-able. In addition to all the challenges you mention, the -70 degrees issue alone is enough to cause major problems and severely slow down the roll out. 
 

We are currently in tier 3 also, but hope to drop to tier 2 in a fortnight, as infection rates have plummeted and we are now below national average. 

[Harry Peterson]

1 hour ago, Selbourne said:

I hope that the daily Coronavirus stats will add a ‘numbers vaccinated to date’ tally, as that will be fascinating to see. I hope with all my heart that I will be proved wrong. 

That’s an essential, along with an age breakdown, and it’s perfectly simple data to collect and disseminate.

 

On past performance though we’ll probably get figures which look superficially like that but actually include all the patients identified by GPs, whether or not vaccination took place.

[AnnieC]

4 minutes ago, Harry Peterson said:

That’s an essential, along with an age breakdown, and it’s perfectly simple data to collect and disseminate.

 

On past performance though we’ll probably get figures which look superficially like that but actually include all the patients identified by GPs, whether or not vaccination took place.

Then they'll give them the second jab 3 weeks later and count it as two people.

[ace2542]

12 hours ago, kalos said:

 

1/The UK was the first to clear Covid vaccine for use .

 

2/The Chinese  Chang'e 5 mission have just landed on the moon 

 

3/ If your lucky enough to use Russian covid vaccine sputnik first ...

Chances are you will get to see where they landed ... (No travel  necessary)

but hey that's just another side effect of 2020 

 

Perhaps they can cure of Putin of his cancer and parkinsons which the Russian people are forbidden to know that he has.

[ann141]

Our local hospital is in the list of 50 due to receive preliminary doses of the vaccine.We have a friend who is a consultant in ITU so he will be pleased particularly as a close colleague in ITU and only aged 50 ended up in the same ITU after probably catching it at work

[ace2542]

2 hours ago, Harry Peterson said:

From earlier reports they hacked into the Oxford University/AstraZeneca systems, so they’re probably working on the basis that if they’ve stolen the vaccine they can use the research as well.  😃

Darn straight because Russia will never admit they are behind the times in science or medicine or anything. It would have been easy for the FSB - which stands for flaming sadistic beggars - 🤣🤣🤣 to get a person into the trial and do a slight of hand and palm of the empty vaccine vial.

Edited December 6, 2020 by ace2542

[davecttr]

1 hour ago, AnnieC said:

Then they'll give them the second jab 3 weeks later and count it as two people.

like when they counted a pair of gloves as 2 items of PPE 😒

Or the system will lose you so you don't get called for the second jab!. there are lots of ways this could go pear shaped and given the track record 😟

[Bazrat]

1 hour ago, davecttr said:

like when they counted a pair of gloves as 2 items of PPE 😒

Or the system will lose you so you don't get called for the second jab!. there are lots of ways this could go pear shaped and given the track record 😟

Talking from experience the flu jab system works extremely well or at least in my area, it is the general public that lets it down

[nosapphire]

1 minute ago, Bazrat said:

Talking from experience the flu jab system works extremely well or at least in my area, it is the general public that lets it down

Totally agree.

Apart from those who do not keep their appointments - how many will not have the second jab because they got a headache or cough in between and decided the first jab "gave me Covid"?

[Angel57]

4 minutes ago, nosapphire said:

Totally agree.

Apart from those who do not keep their appointments - how many will not have the second jab because they got a headache or cough in between and decided the first jab "gave me Covid"?

Oh gosh, I’d never thought of that scenario that people wouldn’t return for their second jab.....😟

[Splice the mainbrace]

4 hours ago, Selbourne said:

As someone in the 55-60 group who will have the vaccine the first day that it’s available to me, I would dearly love to think that I will have it by Easter, as some are saying, but I just can’t see it. The logistical challenge is absolutely ginormous and the need for 2 doses, plus all the usual pre-jab questions and form filling are not going to make this a walk in the park. 

 

From the population numbers that I saw during the week the 55 - 60 age group are around 21m to 25m in the queue.

 

The government were hoping to give 30m flu vaccinations this year between mid Sept and Christmas but I'm not sure how many have actually been given so far. I would like to think that with adequate supplies and added resources for giving the vaccine that 30m covid doses x 2 could be before that end of April.

[zap99]

26 minutes ago, Bazrat said:

Talking from experience the flu jab system works extremely well or at least in my area, it is the general public that lets it down

I have had no complaints either. If folks worry about everything that could go wrong , all the time, they will need to get some stress busting drugs as well. We will leave it to the experts. They generally get it right.

[zap99]

23 minutes ago, Angel57 said:

Oh gosh, I’d never thought of that scenario that people wouldn’t return for their second jab.....😟

If the first jab upset them, they could have the second one in a different arm. Assuming that they jab you in the arm🤔

Edited December 6, 2020 by zap99

[Harry Peterson]

33 minutes ago, Bazrat said:

Talking from experience the flu jab system works extremely well or at least in my area, it is the general public that lets it down

It does work well. It’s efficiently run, largely by GPs. And more importantly politicians haven’t had much involvement with it to foul it all up, and neither has the extremely well connected but utterly useless Dido Harding.

 

[Josy1953]

8 hours ago, Selbourne said:

Thanks Dermotsgirl. Just heard someone from NHS Providers on the TV saying that they hope to have 4m doses by end of December, so that’s enough for 2m people. Groups 1 and 2 alone are around 6m people. As someone in the 55-60 group who will have the vaccine the first day that it’s available to me, I would dearly love to think that I will have it by Easter, as some are saying, but I just can’t see it. The logistical challenge is absolutely ginormous and the need for 2 doses, plus all the usual pre-jab questions and form filling are not going to make this a walk in the park. I hope that the daily Coronavirus stats will add a ‘numbers vaccinated to date’ tally, as that will be fascinating to see. I hope with all my heart that I will be proved wrong. 

4 million doses  is a drop in the ocean , I am in the 65s and over group and would like to think that we will get it before  May when we have cruise booked but I won't be holding my breathe.  That said, there are other companies who are close behind Pfizer and whose vaccines do not have the same storage restrictions as the Pfizer vaccine so maybe some of these will soon be authorised for use in the UK and will be made available so that more of us can be vaccinated.

[AnnieC]

24 minutes ago, Josy1953 said:

4 million doses  is a drop in the ocean , I am in the 65s and over group and would like to think that we will get it before  May when we have cruise booked but I won't be holding my breathe.  That said, there are other companies who are close behind Pfizer and whose vaccines do not have the same storage restrictions as the Pfizer vaccine so maybe some of these will soon be authorised for use in the UK and will be made available so that more of us can be vaccinated.

It is. Realistically, I hope we'll be back to old normal (not new!) by next autumn. If, like me, you were born in the special year of 1953😂, we've got a little wait but that's bearable with light at the end of the tunnel.

 

We should both be grateful we missed sweet rationing by the skin of our teeth...

[Selbourne]

38 minutes ago, Josy1953 said:

4 million doses  is a drop in the ocean , I am in the 65s and over group and would like to think that we will get it before  May when we have cruise booked but I won't be holding my breathe.  That said, there are other companies who are close behind Pfizer and whose vaccines do not have the same storage restrictions as the Pfizer vaccine so maybe some of these will soon be authorised for use in the UK and will be made available so that more of us can be vaccinated.

Indeed. I see that the mood music about speed of vaccinations is already changing from the hype of a week or so ago to something a little more realistic. Professor Stephen Powis, Medical Director of the NHS has today said that the vaccination programme is a “marathon not a sprint” and that it will take “many months” to vaccinate everyone who needs it. Whilst any of the vaccines are welcomed, it’s a great shame that the first one out of the blocks is the most problematic to distribute, especially for those in care homes. As you say, hopefully others will be fast behind it. I believe that the others are far easier to distribute, but still require two doses several weeks apart, thus doubling the already enormous workload. 

[Harry Peterson]

24 minutes ago, Selbourne said:

Indeed. I see that the mood music about speed of vaccinations is already changing from the hype of a week or so ago to something a little more realistic. Professor Stephen Powis, Medical Director of the NHS has today said that the vaccination programme is a “marathon not a sprint” and that it will take “many months” to vaccinate everyone who needs it. Whilst any of the vaccines are welcomed, it’s a great shame that the first one out of the blocks is the most problematic to distribute, especially for those in care homes. As you say, hopefully others will be fast behind it. I believe that the others are far easier to distribute, but still require two doses several weeks apart, thus doubling the already enormous workload. 

I saw that comment, and it does strike a bit of a contrast with some earlier comments from politicians.

 

 Underpromising and overdelivering is the recognised route to success (Amazon's a classic example).  Why on earth do they not learn the lesson and stop overpromising and underdelivering?