New vaccine

[davecttr]

5 minutes ago, wowzz said:

I thought the 90% efficacy related to those who were given half a dose (by accident !) and they were then given a full dose 4 weeks later.

sorry, not clear, apparently none of the people given the half dose followed by the full dose were over the age of 55 which is worrying.

 

There has been no mention yet  of 'run the study again with the half dose followed by full dose using older age groups' that could delay approval for months 😕

[Eddie99]

Article

 

https://www.wired.com/story/the-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-data-isnt-up-to-snuff/

 

Quite worrying.  I hope they haven’t sacrificed robust science for a quick headline 🤞

 

 

[Eddie99]

Sky news just reporting AstraZenica Chief Executive saying the firm is likely to conduct another worldwide trial...

 

So, good that they are being cautious but not good that there will inevitably be a delay

[Eddie99]

Here’s an interesting Twitter thread, which looks rather more positive

 

[ace2542]

1 hour ago, davecttr said:

sorry, not clear, apparently none of the people given the half dose followed by the full dose were over the age of 55 which is worrying.

 

There has been no mention yet  of 'run the study again with the half dose followed by full dose using older age groups' that could delay approval for months 😕

It will never be approved and probably not acceptable for entry to a number of countries including America, Canada and Australia. Get ready for things to really kick off in the world.

Edited November 26, 2020 by ace2542

[ace2542]

4 hours ago, zap99 said:

Where we have been required to have a jab for say, yellow fever, hep b etc. I can't recall any country specifying a particular brand.

Yellow fever didn't kill 262k people in America did it? And Australia never shut down a whole part of the country because on person lied about catching it.

[zap99]

10 minutes ago, ace2542 said:

Yellow fever didn't kill 262k people in America did it? And Australia never shut down a whole part of the country because on person lied about catching it.

Sorry, I can't really comment as I don't understand the point.🤔

[terrierjohn]

1 hour ago, wowzz said:

I thought the 90% efficacy related to those who were given half a dose (by accident !) and they were then given a full dose 4 weeks later.

Wowzz, where do you get your data from, everything I have heard from the media was that the lower first dose was a specific decision made by the Oxford group.

[ace2542]

18 minutes ago, zap99 said:

Sorry, I can't really comment as I don't understand the point.🤔

I don't think Australia or America will allow a person vaccinated with the AZ vaccine into the country. I also don't think they will ever approve it for use. If they have the highest death toll or are shutting entire parts of the country because one person lied about getting it they are going to be real picky about the vaccine. In Australia the pizza delivery guy who caused the lockdown in South Australia has admitted lying. And U.S you know what is going on there.

Edited November 26, 2020 by ace2542

[AnnieC]

29 minutes ago, terrierjohn said:

Wowzz, where do you get your data from, everything I have heard from the media was that the lower first dose was a specific decision made by the Oxford group.

Eddie's link above states that it was a mistake.

Edited November 26, 2020 by AnnieC

[terrierjohn]

30 minutes ago, AnnieC said:

Eddie's link above states that it was a mistake.

It does, but that was only a Twitter feed, so it's no more authorative than this forum.

[Eddie99]

Sure John

 

My view and this guy’s carry equal weight 😂😂😂

Deputy Director General of EMBL, Director of EMBL-EBI and Senior Scientist

Ewan Birney is Deputy Director General of EMBL. He is also Director of EMBL-EBI with Dr Rolf Apweiler, and runs a small research group.

Ewan completed his PhD at the Wellcome Sanger Institute with Richard Durbin. In 2000, he became Head of Nucleotide data at EMBL-EBI and in 2012 he took on the role of Associate Director at the institute. He became Director of EMBL-EBI in 2015. In 2020, Ewan became the Deputy Director General of EMBL. In this role, he assists the EMBL Director General in relation to engagement with EMBL Member States and external representation. 

Ewan led the analysis of the Human Genome gene set, mouse and chicken genomes and the ENCODE project, focusing on non-coding elements of the human genome. Ewan’s main areas of research include functional genomics, DNA algorithms, statistical methods to analyse genomic information (in particular information associated with individual differences in humans and Medaka fish) and use of images for chromatin structure.

Ewan is a non-executive Director of Genomics England, and a consultant and advisor to a number of companies, including Oxford Nanopore Technologies, Dovetail Genomics and GSK. Ewan was elected an EMBO member in 2012, a Fellow of the Royal Society in 2014 and a Fellow of the Academy of Medical Sciences in 2015. In 2019, Ewan became a Board Member of the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC).

He has received a number of awards including the 2003 Francis Crick Award from the Royal Society, the 2005 Overton Prize from the International Society for Computational Biology and the 2005 Benjamin Franklin Award for contributions in Open Source Bioinformatics.

 

[AnnieC]

7 minutes ago, terrierjohn said:

It does, but that was only a Twitter feed, so it's no more authorative than this forum.

The CEO of AstraZenica says it was a mistake according to this report: https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-astrazeneca-to-run-extra-trial-of-vaccine-developed-with-oxford-university-12143150

 

Sorry, I can't guarantee its authenticity.

[terrierjohn]

1 hour ago, AnnieC said:

The CEO of AstraZenica says it was a mistake according to this report: https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-astrazeneca-to-run-extra-trial-of-vaccine-developed-with-oxford-university-12143150

 

Sorry, I can't guarantee its authenticity.

No he said it was an accidental discovery not a mistake. They would not have used the half dose followed by a full dose in error on several hundred people. I imagine that he meant the higher efficacy was not an expected result, therefore it was accidental. AZ now say they will do a further rapid survey to validate the dosage findings.

[ace2542]

17 minutes ago, terrierjohn said:

No he said it was an accidental discovery not a mistake. They would not have used the half dose followed by a full dose in error on several hundred people. I imagine that he meant the higher efficacy was not an expected result, therefore it was accidental. AZ now say they will do a further rapid survey to validate the dosage findings.

This is probably the only game in town for UK vaccination in most of these so called 11 groupings. But this further rapid survey -despite the opinion of sky news article that i won't affect uk approval - will probably push the vaccination timetable back by a few months maybe even 2022 in the lower groupings.

[AnnieC]

22 minutes ago, terrierjohn said:

No he said it was an accidental discovery not a mistake. They would not have used the half dose followed by a full dose in error on several hundred people. I imagine that he meant the higher efficacy was not an expected result, therefore it was accidental. AZ now say they will do a further rapid survey to validate the dosage findings.

Mistake according to the Beeb: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55086927

 

Presumably the mistake led to the accidental discovery...

[wowzz]

1 hour ago, AnnieC said:

Mistake according to the Beeb: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55086927

 

Presumably the mistake led to the accidental discovery...

Which is where I read about mistake. Despite what Terrierjohn might think, I don't just make up spurious stories. 

[sogne]

https://www.healio.com/news/endocrinology/20120325/penicillin-an-accidental-discovery-changed-the-course-of-medicine

 

[ace2542]

8 hours ago, Eddie99 said:

Sky news just reporting AstraZenica Chief Executive saying the firm is likely to conduct another worldwide trial...

 

So, good that they are being cautious but not good that there will inevitably be a delay

There is always the possibility that the Government will simply forget about the AstraZeneca vaccine and the placed order for 100million doses and demand the money back if they paid anything upfront. And just go with the 25million doses they have from America and vaccinate the most at risk groups leave it at that for the short term. Forcing the other groupings to go privately if they wish.  That was the plan to begin with according to some media sources in recent weeks.  It is not most young people in UK will take the vaccine anyway.

[terrierjohn]

6 hours ago, ace2542 said:

There is always the possibility that the Government will simply forget about the AstraZeneca vaccine and the placed order for 100million doses and demand the money back if they paid anything upfront. And just go with the 25million doses they have from America and vaccinate the most at risk groups leave it at that for the short term. Forcing the other groupings to go privately if they wish.  That was the plan to begin with according to some media sources in recent weeks.  It is not most young people in UK will take the vaccine anyway.

It seems you have been trawling the conspiracy theory websites, or maybe just trying to start your own?

[nosapphire]

Bear in mind that I am one of those who are frequently accused of being "negative".

My interpretation of the reports that I have seen (including BBC) is that it was originally thought the AstraZ vaccine gave protection of 65-70% (still better than the 'flu jab).

It was discovered via a mistake that if the initial dose was half strength, with the 2nd dose at full strength, protection shot up to 90%.

The "mistaken" doses were only given to the under-55s, so the extended testing is for the over-55s.

The tests prior to the mistake already showed that good tolerance and good protection covered all age groups - over and under 55, it is just that now they are testing whether the variable dose gives the same higher protection to the over-55s as it has to the under-55s.

I cannot see any reason that the UK Gov would start cancelling orders, and no reason to think that the extended testing is because of any failings. And 65% protection is still better than none.

If I - as a cynic - think that, those of you who are optimists should be doing handsprings.😁

[ace2542]

2 hours ago, terrierjohn said:

It seems you have been trawling the conspiracy theory websites, or maybe just trying to start your own?

Astra is the mainstay of our vaccination program and we are counting on it.   You would be stupid to think that either Pfizer or Moderna could produce us 100 million doses quickly because they have other countries on the order books. There is no plan b here not for a long while.

[ace2542]

16 minutes ago, nosapphire said:

Bear in mind that I am one of those who are frequently accused of being "negative".

My interpretation of the reports that I have seen (including BBC) is that it was originally thought the AstraZ vaccine gave protection of 65-70% (still better than the 'flu jab).

It was discovered via a mistake that if the initial dose was half strength, with the 2nd dose at full strength, protection shot up to 90%.

The "mistaken" doses were only given to the under-55s, so the extended testing is for the over-55s.

The tests prior to the mistake already showed that good tolerance and good protection covered all age groups - over and under 55, it is just that now they are testing whether the variable dose gives the same higher protection to the over-55s as it has to the under-55s.

I cannot see any reason that the UK Gov would start cancelling orders, and no reason to think that the extended testing is because of any failings. And 65% protection is still better than none.

If I - as a cynic - think that, those of you who are optimists should be doing handsprings.😁

I agree with you and it is being submitted to the regulator even though Chris Whitty appears to be against it now. That having been said I would have been better had the figure had been 95% like the American ones. 25% more protection is a very big difference. Even the Russian one is 95% though I personally think they stole someone else's vaccine and done stage 3 trials when every one else was at stage 1 or 2 hence how they appear to be further ahead. They deny any wrongdoing but that is what  probably happened.

 

I am in group 11 and if I have choice between the 70% one on the nhs and going privately I will look at my options for Moderna or Pfizer.

Edited November 27, 2020 by ace2542

[davecttr]

Consider this , the Pfizer/Biontek and Moderna vaccines ordered total 45 million doses, enough to vaccinate 22.5 million people. About 20.5 million people in the UK are aged 55 or over. So there is enough of the 90%+ vaccine for all the more vulnerable groups. The net effect of the AstraZenica 'fiasco' will probably be some months delay in completing the hoped for vaccination programme. The by easter promises were just hoped for outcomes.

 

The JVT penalty analogy needs adjusting, the 3rd penalty needs retaking because an attacking player infringed the 10 yard limit, or will be if the video referee can make their mind up 😉

 

 

[AnnieC]

36 minutes ago, nosapphire said:

 

My interpretation of the reports that I have seen (including BBC) is that it was originally thought the AstraZ vaccine gave protection of 65-70% (still better than the 'flu jab).

 

Dr Simon Clarke (Professor of Cellular Biology, University of Reading (other scientists are available)) has taken issue with Fergus Walsh of the BBC - according to him, the efficacy rate for the Oxford vaccine is 62%. The figure of 65-70% is reliant on the half dose mistake results being right, not yet proven.