Hospitalizations and cases are falling, travel restrictions are rising...

[ipeeinthepool]

11 minutes ago, Fouremco said:

The elderly, medical professionals and many of the other priority groups who have been vaccinated are not the ones who are likely to create another surge when gathering for the Super Bowl. Like @TeeRick, @markeb, and many others, I doubt that the vaccinations to date will prevent another surge.

 

I agree the vaccinations may not prevent another surge in cases but it will be interesting to see if there is a reduction in deaths.  If the older than 65 population was the largest group for Covid deaths and we are vaccinating a significant portion of the over 65 group then perhaps we will see a reduction in deaths.

[markeb]

2 minutes ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

I agree the vaccinations may not prevent another surge in cases but it will be interesting to see if there is a reduction in deaths.  If the older than 65 population was the largest group for Covid deaths and we are vaccinating a significant portion of the over 65 group then perhaps we will see a reduction in deaths.

 

Agree. I suspect we'll see a decline in hospitalizations and deaths before we see a decrease in cases (test positives). Both from age groups vaccinated, and the uncertainty on how the vaccine will impact infection rates.

[ipeeinthepool]

The Indian situation is also interesting.   I didn't see anything that discussed the Covid variant in India.  Is it the same strain as the US, UK or something else.  I assume that if the virus can mutate to be more easily transmitted,  perhaps it can also mutate to become less easily transmitted.  The fact that the over 65 population is only 6% is also interesting.  Is that because people die of other causes before 65 or if the younger population is exploding?

[Oceangoer2]

43 minutes ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 I assume that if the virus can mutate to be more easily transmitted,  perhaps it can also mutate to become less easily transmitted.

Interesting point....didn't consider that what goes up, may come down (usually).  So transmission MAY become weaker which is a hopeful thought.

[nocl]

1 hour ago, ipeeinthepool said:

The Indian situation is also interesting.   I didn't see anything that discussed the Covid variant in India.  Is it the same strain as the US, UK or something else.  I assume that if the virus can mutate to be more easily transmitted,  perhaps it can also mutate to become less easily transmitted.  The fact that the over 65 population is only 6% is also interesting.  Is that because people die of other causes before 65 or if the younger population is exploding?

It can mutate to become less easily transmitted but that would be considered to be less competitive and therefore a failed mutation leading to extinction for that strain.

 

Expect the mutations that will be seen will be those that help the virus compete and spread.

 

There are many mutations that we don't see because they are failed mutations.

[WonderMan3]

3 hours ago, markeb said:

 

The first graph shows a current 7 day average of 149,348 new test positives as of January 31st. On Oct 9, not even the low point, which was in September, the same average was 47,755. So two days ago, the positive test rate was 3.13 times higher than before Thanksgiving. Cases are declining from the highest point of the epidemic in the US. It does not support your statement.

 

The latest flu is not a "CoVID". Influenza is caused by an influenza virus, whose primary relationships to SARS-CoV-2, the actual virus; COVID19 is the disease, is that they're both RNA viruses. The R0 of seasonal flu is between 1 and 2; the R0 of SARS-CoV-2 was generally placed between 2 and 3 until the latest variants appeared, which will almost certainly push it even higher. That also does not support your statement.

 

All of this. ^^^

[WonderMan3]

8 hours ago, TeeRick said:

Will the next US surge be about two weeks after all the indoor Super Bowl Parties expected this Sunday?  That is my next worry now that holiday surges are past peak.

 

That's very well a possibility. Hopefully reports of another big storm coming for the northeast this coming weekend are true and keeps people at home.

[CroozFanatic]

1 hour ago, WonderMan3 said:

 

That's very well a possibility. Hopefully reports of another big storm coming for the northeast this coming weekend are true and keeps people at home.

 

I think it's all about the Variants going forward. If one escapes the vaccine, or is significantly more deadly, ugh, ugh, ugh.

[Miaminice]

13 hours ago, ipeeinthepool said:

I assume that if the virus can mutate to be more easily transmitted,  perhaps it can also mutate to become less easily transmitted. 

 

Sure it can. Mutations are nothing else than a copy/paste error in replication. However, a strain less beneficial to the virus due to a reduced spread would simply die out while the mutations which provide an advantage to the virus spread faster. Survival of the fittest aka evolution...

Edited February 3, 2021 by Miaminice

[Miaminice]

9 hours ago, CroozFanatic said:

 

I think it's all about the Variants going forward. If one escapes the vaccine, or is significantly more deadly, ugh, ugh, ugh.

 

Yep, and there is fear that the new mutation E484K could do just that. 😞

[gold1953]

14 hours ago, Fouremco said:

The elderly, medical professionals and many of the other priority groups who have been vaccinated are not the ones who are likely to create another surge when gathering for the Super Bowl. Like @TeeRick, @markeb, and many others, I doubt that the vaccinations to date will prevent another surge.

Exactly what I was thinking, The older population is trying harder to keep safe. The younger generations have caused the surges for the most part and will continue to be the problem. This will take a while as there is no knocking sense into most of them

[ipeeinthepool]

53 minutes ago, Miaminice said:

 

Sure it can. Mutations are nothing else than a copy/paste error in replication. However, a strain less beneficial to the virus due to a reduced spread would simply die out while the mutations which provide an advantage to the virus spread faster. Survival of the fittest aka evolution...

 

Ok I understand.  Then perhaps what we are seeing is the dominate strain has mutated into one that causes asymptomatic infections that are going undetected.  This would perhaps be a good situation and would effectively work as a vaccine.  People with asymptomatic infections may actually tend to spread the disease more widely because they don't know they're infected.   Maybe this is the mechanism that occurs when a disease tend to "burn itself out" for no reason.

[Miaminice]

50 minutes ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

Ok I understand.  Then perhaps what we are seeing is the dominate strain has mutated into one that causes asymptomatic infections that are going undetected.  This would perhaps be a good situation and would effectively work as a vaccine.  People with asymptomatic infections may actually tend to spread the disease more widely because they don't know they're infected.   Maybe this is the mechanism that occurs when a disease tend to "burn itself out" for no reason.

 

Symptomatic or asysmtomatic are indeed small effects but not direct or primary effects. The primary change with the most effect - like in the UK mutation - is (put very simply) how fast and how easy the virus can enter a cell. Right now it´s the changes to the spike protein which is used to enter the cell that have made it more efficient.

 

Plus, this virus has a significant over-dispersion phenomenon. Again put simply, it doesn´t spread evenly. Some infected people (regardless if symptomatic or not) do not infect others and a few really spread the virus. Some older numbers say that 73 % of infected people only infect one other person but 6 % of the infected spread it to 8 or more other persons. Another factor making it hard to control.

 

Anyway, this virus will not burn itself out unless we reach a protective herd immunity (preferably by vaccination). The mutations make one thing crystal clear though. The race has begun... we need to vaccinate enough people and keep up the protective measures before the virus mutates to a form resitant to the current vaccines - the so called immune escape. Otherwise we would start all over again 😞

Edited February 3, 2021 by Miaminice

[TeeRick]

2 hours ago, Miaminice said:

 

Symptomatic or asysmtomatic are indeed small effects but not direct or primary effects. The primary change with the most effect - like in the UK mutation - is (put very simply) how fast and how easy the virus can enter a cell. Right now it´s the changes to the spike protein which is used to enter the cell that have made it more efficient.

 

Plus, this virus has a significant over-dispersion phenomenon. Again put simply, it doesn´t spread evenly. Some infected people (regardless if symptomatic or not) do not infect others and a few really spread the virus. Some older numbers say that 73 % of infected people only infect one other person but 6 % of the infected spread it to 8 or more other persons. Another factor making it hard to control.

 

Anyway, this virus will not burn itself out unless we reach a protective herd immunity (preferably by vaccination). The mutations make one thing crystal clear though. The race has begun... we need to vaccinate enough people and keep up the protective measures before the virus mutates to a form resitant to the current vaccines - the so called immune escape. Otherwise we would start all over again 😞

I obviously cannot be completely certain, but IMO to have a total Escape Variant SARS-CoV-2 strain 100% resistant to all of the vaccines now available would be pretty unlikely.  Vaccines produce polyclonal Ab responses to different conformations and regions of SPIKE.  And T-Cell responses against SPIKE to different overlapping short peptide sequences.  And in data released (in Lancet) yesterday by AZ/Oxford of their vaccine studied in the UK, S.Africa, and Brazil they still had over 80% efficacy and 100% against severe COVID and death.

https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-02-02-oxford-coronavirus-vaccine-shows-sustained-protection-76-during-3-month-interval#

[Miaminice]

15 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

I obviously cannot be completely certain, but IMO to have a total Escape Variant SARS-CoV-2 strain 100% resistant to all of the vaccines now available would be pretty unlikely.  Vaccines produce polyclonal Ab responses to different conformations and regions of SPIKE.  And T-Cell responses against SPIKE to different overlapping short peptide sequences.  And in data released (in Lancet) yesterday by AZ/Oxford of their vaccine studied in the UK, S.Africa, and Brazil they still had over 80% efficacy and 100% against severe COVID and death.

https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-02-02-oxford-coronavirus-vaccine-shows-sustained-protection-76-during-3-month-interval#

It doesn´t have to be 100% resistant! Significantly lowering efficacy is bad enough.
The new E484K in which mutations are apparently are combined is something scientists here are closely looking at.

 

And until we are talking about the majority of people worldwide being vaccinated, a more spread-efficient virus is also bad enough. All in all it´s too early to relax...

[CroozFanatic]

1 minute ago, Miaminice said:

It doesn´t have to be 100% resistant! Significantly lowering efficacy is bad enough.
The new E484K in which mutations are apparently are combined is something scientists here are closely looking at.

 

And until we are talking about the majority of people worldwide being vaccinated, a more spread-efficient virus is also bad enough. All in all it´s too early to relax...

 

Unfortunately, every problem with the evolution of the virus is 2x, 3x, 5x problem for the cruise industry.

 

In my humble opinion

[Miaminice]

9 minutes ago, CroozFanatic said:

 

Unfortunately, every problem with the evolution of the virus is 2x, 3x, 5x problem for the cruise industry.

 

In my humble opinion

 

For all of us and every industry - not just the cruise industry!

[TeeRick]

6 minutes ago, Miaminice said:

It doesn´t have to be 100% resistant! Significantly lowering efficacy is bad enough.
The new E484K in which mutations are apparently are combined is something scientists here are closely looking at.

 

And until we are talking about the majority of people worldwide being vaccinated, a more spread-efficient virus is also bad enough. All in all it´s too early to relax...

The clinical Efficacy number is lower for the J&J vaccine and the AZ vaccine in S.Africa which has this E484K variant.  That is true.  Meaning more people get mild COVID symptoms vs no symptoms. But the Effectiveness of these vaccines preventing severe COVID and deaths is 100%.   Even in S.Africa.  I personally am pleased with this data.  But who believes it is too early to relax?  Not me.  I do not think anybody is taking their foot off the gas pedal and they will be battling variants with current and future modified vaccines likely for years to come. But hopefully in a more routine and annual way.

[UnorigionalName]

6 hours ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

Ok I understand.  Then perhaps what we are seeing is the dominate strain has mutated into one that causes asymptomatic infections that are going undetected.  This would perhaps be a good situation and would effectively work as a vaccine.  People with asymptomatic infections may actually tend to spread the disease more widely because they don't know they're infected.   Maybe this is the mechanism that occurs when a disease tend to "burn itself out" for no reason.

 

This is how pandemics usually end.  The virus eventually mutates to become more transmissible, and a side effect is it becomes less lethal.  We may even be seeing some of that, as if you compare the incidence mortality rate, it has been dropping from the beginning.  Some of it may be to better care, some may be to better testing, but some may be due to changes in the virus.

 

Sometimes though, before the pandemics end naturally everyone in the world gets the disease once or more times...

 

This is actually really exciting as science has finally improved to the point that we can try to fight off pandemics instead of rolling over and letting it wash through the population.

 

Is it happening in India? I don't think there's any data to support any thoughts.  Need to collect lots of data and sequence lots of virus.  I mean a lot may have to do with the fact that their >65 population is like 5% of their total, and their warm weather.

Edited February 3, 2021 by UnorigionalName

[gold1953]

1 hour ago, UnorigionalName said:

 

This is how pandemics usually end.  The virus eventually mutates to become more transmissible, and a side effect is it becomes less lethal.  We may even be seeing some of that, as if you compare the incidence mortality rate, it has been dropping from the beginning.  Some of it may be to better care, some may be to better testing, but some may be due to changes in the virus.

 

Sometimes though, before the pandemics end naturally everyone in the world gets the disease once or more times...

 

This is actually really exciting as science has finally improved to the point that we can try to fight off pandemics instead of rolling over and letting it wash through the population.

 

Is it happening in India? I don't think there's any data to support any thoughts.  Need to collect lots of data and sequence lots of virus.  I mean a lot may have to do with the fact that their >65 population is like 5% of their total, and their warm weather.

another reason for the mortality rate dropping is because older people..aka seniors are staying safe of being kept safe at this time. I am over 65 and know many my age and older and not one of us takes any chances

[GateGuardian]

On 1/31/2021 at 9:51 AM, CroozFanatic said:

Me thinks I'm not being told everything.

 

Did you see what Canada just did? Nobody leaving Canada now.

 

 

Canada only got so strict because some couple broke the quarantine rules, which partly caused the UK variant to spread in Canada. The worse part is she is a doctor as well, so Dr. Weir should of known better.

 

In regards of cancelled flights, it's just direct flights. You can still get to the "sun" destinations by connecting through the US.

 

The $2000 quarantine hotel is an estimated up to value that the returning traveler should be prepared to paid. Whether or not it will be that much, no one knows until they actually put it into effect. No official date yet. Also, all the hotels in the area for the four Canadian airports are old run-downed motels/hotels (Hampton Inn & Ramada etc - at least for YYZ)

[nocl]

Keep in mind that as more people get vaccinated you do cut down on the opportunity for the virus to mutate.

 

With that said, as with antibiotics, the new mutations that do appear will be those that have the ability to thrive in an environment where a large percentage of the population is vaccinated.  The only way to stop that is to kill of the current strains quickly before more resistant strains develop. 

 

With a substantial percentage of the population not wanting to get vaccinated the odds of doing that is slim.  So the battle will turn into a long term one that pits the rate of mutation against the development of booster shots against those mutations.  The need for booster shots will be with us for a while.

[TeeRick]

Here is a very interesting read in the NY Times newsfeed today on a topic called COVID Absolutism.  

 

Food for thought!

 

https://us.newschant.com/world/covid-absolutism-the-new-york-times/

[nocl]

On 2/2/2021 at 12:50 PM, ipeeinthepool said:

The Indian situation is also interesting.   I didn't see anything that discussed the Covid variant in India.  Is it the same strain as the US, UK or something else.  I assume that if the virus can mutate to be more easily transmitted,  perhaps it can also mutate to become less easily transmitted.  The fact that the over 65 population is only 6% is also interesting.  Is that because people die of other causes before 65 or if the younger population is exploding?

Keep in mind that when Social Security was started only half of the population reached retirement age of 65 (life expectancy in the US was 62.1 for men and 65.4 for women in 1939).

 

Even today with life expectancy around 79, around 30% die prior to reaching age 65.

[Arizona Wildcat]

28 minutes ago, nocl said:

Keep in mind that when Social Security was started only half of the population reached retirement age of 65 (life expectancy in the US was 62.1 for men and 65.4 for women in 1939).

 

Even today with life expectancy around 79, around 30% die prior to reaching age 65.

And the younger population is indeed growing.  Plus the infant death rate has dropped by about half in the US since 1960.  In India the drop is from 190 to under 30 per thousand births since 1950.

That changes the averages by several years.

Edited February 12, 2021 by Arizona Wildcat