Carnival Stock Below $10

[tidecat]

I suspect if Carnival is near collapse, we'd probably see sale-and-leasebacks of Half Moon Cay, the new development in Grand Bahama, Amber Cove, the landside holdings in Alaska, etc. Next up would be parting with some idle and/or relatively underperforming ships (Costa Magica, Costa Serena). Carnival could also part with their share of Grand Bahama Ship Yard.

[grandgeezer]

6 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

 

In fact, RCL closed DOWN

 

In fact it was up this morning when I posted, I didn’t say it closed up.

[grandgeezer]

9 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

It applies equally to stocks going up or down and is worthless as advice.

 

As an example, when hiring an employee or awarding a contract, references of past performance are invaluable, even though they guarantee nothing.

It’s not advice, it’s warning that just because it performed up or down, things change and the decision what to do should be made on the information available at the time.

I was a Purchasing manager at a location of a company that did $1,000,000,000 in sales the last year I worked in 2001. I had eight buyers working for me and was responsible for tens of millions of dollars in operating expenses. I’m pretty will informed on hiring and awarding contracts and I used the same guidelines I do for stocks and other equities.

[LocoLoco1]

$6/share and change. 30/yr. low. Wondering what would Dandy Don Meridith be saying…

[ontheweb]

13 hours ago, Illbcruzn4life said:

Yep at the end of the day Carnival dragged them down.

And it's hard to be down on a day that the stock market went up so much!

[ontheweb]

14 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

 

In fact, RCL closed DOWN

 

And you think somehow that that is good news for Carnival?

[Colorado Beach Bum]

6 hours ago, amcankid said:

I’m wondering what affect if any will be made after the new Love Boat series on TV starts. 

Zero

[At Sea At Peace]

15 hours ago, TwoBadKnees said:

How exposed is the Saudi Carnival Corp investment to a CCL bankruptcy?

Would they invest more, or would they think that would be "putting good money after bad"?

 

Good questions.

 

First, the SA Public Investment Fund, is currently a $600 billion sovereign wealth fund.

 

Here's what they have at risk (appears <1% based on above and below).

 

They built their stake to 8.2% pre-March 26th, 2020 when the shares were floating between $15-$17 (reported to be $700+ million; no billions and billions).  Within weeks the shares dropped to almost $10.  So, they are patient.  Oddly, Carnival announced April 1st that they were issuing 71.875 million shares in stock in an offering at $8.  😲

 

In 2022 there were reports that Carnival was in negotiations to sell the Seabourn luxury line to the SA PIF.  It reports that its current stake in Carnivals stock is 5.1% and some $50-$70 million in bonds (no billions here either).

 

The Saudi tourism has reportedly boomed 121% over pre-pandemic levels.

 

They also have something in the ground, being pumped and sold at historic rates that the rest of the world mostly does not or does not choose to.  So, they are likely the top candidate to be at the bidding table for a luxury subsidiary line of CCL or RCL, or even the entire NCL line.  They won't be paying top dollar under these conditions.

 

JIMO

 

 

[lostsoulcruiser]

On 10/2/2022 at 10:50 AM, mz-s said:

Carnival has more debt than its assets are worth and isn't making money so the only reason the stock isn't at $0 now is investors believe the industry has at least some upside potential.

Incorrect on a number of levels based on Carnival's latest balance sheet information:

Total Assets=51917; Liabilities = 43538

Plant Property Equipment (ships) = 39300

 

Plus they still have 7 billion cash on hand

 

They are still bleeding cash but that slowed down in the last quarter as they were positive on EBITDA which is the first steps towards overall return to profitability.  

 

Would not be surprised if they started to slow down or delay new builds as the interest rates on new debt will be crushing.  

Make no mistake they have a long way to go and they probably cannot handle another shock but again future bookings are up, on-board spending is up and the cabins are filling up again.  

[grandgeezer]

11 hours ago, amcankid said:

I’m wondering what affect if any will be made after the new Love Boat series on TV starts. 

You do know the new Love Boat series is a reality show along the same lines of The Bachelor and The Bachelorette, right?

[tidecat]

1 hour ago, lostsoulcruiser said:

Would not be surprised if they started to slow down or delay new builds as the interest rates on new debt will be crushing.  

Make no mistake they have a long way to go and they probably cannot handle another shock but again future bookings are up, on-board spending is up and the cabins are filling up again.  

Not much left on the Carnival Corp orderbook. Two Princess (Sun Princess in 2024, other in 2025), Carnival Celebration (2022), Carnival Jubilee (2023), and P&O UK's Arvia (2022), and Cunard's Queen Anne (2024). It could be 2030 before any line gets a newbuild.

[lostsoulcruiser]

• Cruise operator Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Inc (NYSE: NCLH) updated its global health and safety protocols by removing all COVID-19 testing, masking and vaccination requirements, effective October 4, 2022.
• The cruise line decided on relaxation after positive progress in the public health environment.
• Norwegian will continue to follow the travel guidelines required by the destinations it visits. 
• "Many travelers have been patiently waiting to take their long-awaited vacation at sea and we cannot wait to celebrate their return," said CEO Harry Sommer.
• The cruise line, with a fleet of eighteen contemporary ships, sails to nearly 400 destinations worldwide.

 

The above from a NCL press release will stimulate all cruise stocks, expect Carnival to follow (they will have to follow and want to follow).

[BlerkOne]

25 minutes ago, lostsoulcruiser said:

• Cruise operator Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Inc (NYSE: NCLH) updated its global health and safety protocols by removing all COVID-19 testing, masking and vaccination requirements, effective October 4, 2022.
• The cruise line decided on relaxation after positive progress in the public health environment.
• Norwegian will continue to follow the travel guidelines required by the destinations it visits. 
• "Many travelers have been patiently waiting to take their long-awaited vacation at sea and we cannot wait to celebrate their return," said CEO Harry Sommer.
• The cruise line, with a fleet of eighteen contemporary ships, sails to nearly 400 destinations worldwide.

 

The above from a NCL press release will stimulate all cruise stocks, expect Carnival to follow (they will have to follow and want to follow).

Apparently NCL influences the whole market. 🤣

[Inveterate Cruiser]

Those who picked up some Carnival stock at $6.80+ Monday morning would be up 10% already today.........

[CruzDayz]

5 minutes ago, Inveterate Cruiser said:

Those who picked up some Carnival stock at $6.80+ Monday morning would be up 10% already today.........

I was still holding out for more at $5.00 or under, but I'm glad that it went up with most of the market.

[BoozinCroozin]

My take on it is that the cruise lines are feeling the pressure of the loans. CCL has some odd $30B in loans. In every business you can see a death spiral as it is happening. No, I am not talking bankruptcy, but a company that is so lost they don't know what to do. What CCL is doing is all knee-jerk now: cutting back on everything, charging for everything, increasing prices and services. People may say it is a "small thing", but popcorn was the start. Everyone said it was nothing. Then it was services, dining options, no dining options late at night except paid room service, no 24-hour pizza. The hits will just keep adding up until you realize how much nickel and diming is happening. My next cruise is almost 2x what I reserved it for a few months ago. But just remember, when all this happens, they never undo it. So this will continue for an extremely long time. They will also continue to cut, cut, and cut, until they see bookings start to decline.

[Tom-n-Cheryl]

4 minutes ago, BoozinCroozin said:

... But just remember, when all this happens, they never undo it. So this will continue for an extremely long time. ..

 

Yep - that's pretty much the case across a lot of the economy. COVID continues to be a great "excuse" - it's getting rather long in the tooth though...

 

Tom

[BlerkOne]

3 hours ago, BoozinCroozin said:

My take on it is that the cruise lines are feeling the pressure of the loans. CCL has some odd $30B in loans.

RCL has over $20 billion in debt and less cash on hand.

 

Carnival has enough cash to even play the spread between CUK and CCL stock.

[SwordBlazer Cruising]

5 hours ago, BoozinCroozin said:

My take on it is that the cruise lines are feeling the pressure of the loans. CCL has some odd $30B in loans. In every business you can see a death spiral as it is happening. No, I am not talking bankruptcy, but a company that is so lost they don't know what to do. What CCL is doing is all knee-jerk now: cutting back on everything, charging for everything, increasing prices and services. People may say it is a "small thing", but popcorn was the start. Everyone said it was nothing. Then it was services, dining options, no dining options late at night except paid room service, no 24-hour pizza. The hits will just keep adding up until you realize how much nickel and diming is happening. My next cruise is almost 2x what I reserved it for a few months ago. But just remember, when all this happens, they never undo it. So this will continue for an extremely long time. They will also continue to cut, cut, and cut, until they see bookings start to decline.

I think the big 3 have zero choice. It is either close up shop or do what they need to stimulate their business. This is similar, although not on the same scale as hotels. Housekeeping every other day, or on request, no more breaks at certain hotels, no lounge for elites and have you seen the rates for hotels these days? 300+ certain markets for Fairfield or Courtyard. 
 

The crusielines have to manage their debt the way they need to and I am very sure their finance people are infinitely smarter than me.

[cruisingguy007]

23 minutes ago, SwordBlazer Cruising said:

I think the big 3 have zero choice. It is either close up shop or do what they need to stimulate their business. This is similar, although not on the same scale as hotels. Housekeeping every other day, or on request, no more breaks at certain hotels, no lounge for elites and have you seen the rates for hotels these days? 300+ certain markets for Fairfield or Courtyard. 
 

The crusielines have to manage their debt the way they need to and I am very sure their finance people are infinitely smarter than me.

 

Another big problem is that things have to go perfect and return exactly to pre-covid levels for all the fiscal hypotheses to play out. I just don't see that happening, there will be hiccups. Plus, plenty of folks who are still put off cruising. Not everyone is going to be as enthusiastic about catching covid as some ardent cruisers here are. I've read several posts about some folks getting covid on nearly every cruise since the restart and being totally fine with it lol. That's devotion! There is still a subset who won't cruise with a higher risk of covid and winter covid surge/flu season will be unknown until Dec.

 

Couple that with high airfares to get to ports for many, a cooling economy and higher costs for daily living and the risk is certainly there of things not returning to pre-covid levels. The drive to port people will probably remain strong but that still doesn't mean it won't take discounts to attract them. The discounts certainly attract the blue cards, they've been disproportionately represented on the cruises I've taken since the restart, lots and lots and lots of blue cards. The real question is will they return without the huge discounts?        

Edited October 5, 2022 by cruisingguy007

[firefly333]

Another future influence on profitability is LNG. Mardi gras uses LNG, and then celebration, then jubilee. Princess new ship will be LNG. Another carnival maybe it was P & O. Rcl new icon ots is being retrofitted for lng. 

 

Yes this is a stock not the price of LNG, but a fast way to track the LNG price. I dont own this stock but bullish on the whole sector short term. Burns cleaner than bunker oil. Yahoo says the chart is bullish short, medium and long term ... which is probably bearish for ccl if prices on LNG keep moving higher. No more black cloud from the smoke stack on your aft cabin as soot. 

 

[BlerkOne]

11 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

Another future influence on profitability is LNG. Mardi gras uses LNG, and then celebration, then jubilee. Princess new ship will be LNG. Another carnival maybe it was P & O. Rcl new icon ots is being retrofitted for lng. 

 

 

 

 

and yet NCL is choosing to go with methanol. Wonder what that is going to lead to.

[BlerkOne]

1 minute ago, At Sea At Peace said:

 

Yep.  Or, just look away from the accumulating truth.

 

 

 

 

The truth is CCL was ahead of the curve in acquiring money. RCL, pick up most of their debt over the past year and has just a fraction of the cash on hand that Carnival does.

[firefly333]

45 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

and yet NCL is choosing to go with methanol. Wonder what that is going to lead to.

Idk. I do see carnival is way ahead in the percentage of LNG ships coming. Costs more idk. Carnival embracing the green thing. 

 

As more ships embrace it, the price of LNG will have more and more effect. That's a 6 month chart and they had a fire ruined earnings and still hotter than  a firecracker. Agree carnival was early with mardi gras. We need more solar power onboard. 

[BlerkOne]

I see Carnival has made two purchases of CUK stock in 2 days. Not a huge amount, but it adds up.

 

https://www.carnivalcorp.com/static-files/21a27a21-c75d-4a6f-8685-e891bac23680

 

https://www.carnivalcorp.com/static-files/11814141-ccf8-40a6-ae33-dccad172985b