Carnival Stock Below $10

[tidecat]

Around a month from now, we should get earnings for both NCLH and RCL. If they have similarly bad news, I could see CCL being drug below $5.

[BlerkOne]

4 hours ago, d12j28 said:

They would lose out if they cut back on free rooms. Real gamblers aren't going to pay for a cruise just to gamble on a Carnival ship. They'll take their money where it's wanted.

Nah. Gamblers are fickle and change with the wind, if not more often. Besides, real gamblers stick to land based casinos. They can't just walk next door to a different casino at sea.

[BlerkOne]

1 hour ago, tidecat said:

Around a month from now, we should get earnings for both NCLH and RCL. If they have similarly bad news, I could see CCL being drug below $5.

RCL has been taking on more and more debt. They have a lot more downside possibility.

 

NCL is likely the first to go bankrupt, if any of the big 3 do.

[Tom-n-Cheryl]

6 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

RCL has been taking on more and more debt. They have a lot more downside possibility.

 

NCL is likely the first to go bankrupt, if any of the big 3 do.

 

Can you imagine a post (big 3) bankrupt cruise line? I'm trying to picture what would occur - I mean, it's not like one of the others would have the $'s to scoop up the remnants of the "biggest loser", would they?

 

Tom

[At Sea At Peace]

2 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

RCL has been taking on more and more debt. They have a lot more downside possibility.

 

NCL is likely the first to go bankrupt, if any of the big 3 do.

 

Could be, yet to see.

 

IMO, RCL is the pickle in the middle.  CCL is simply too big to sail.  NCL is small enough to be eaten (acquired).  RCL, with its own brand, plus Celebrity and Silverseas (and 50% interest in others), looks to have a fleet (some paid for, a lot of new and trending) of its own, the Celebrity 'upclass and age' demographic that will continue more so in tougher times, etc. re: Silverseas.  

 

Its debt, although heavily leveraged, is backstopped though 2023 for revolving debt to settle expiring maturities.  That puts it 'pretty much in the clear' until 2024 'sans any other surprises.

 

Just IMO.

 

 

[BlerkOne]

4 minutes ago, Tom-n-Cheryl said:

 

Can you imagine a post (big 3) bankrupt cruise line? I'm trying to picture what would occur - I mean, it's not like one of the others would have the $'s to scoop up the remnants of the "biggest loser", would they?

 

Tom

If Carnival goes bankrupt, creditors will be left to get what they can from scrapping the ships and I don't see that. Most likely they would restructure the Carnival debt.

[BlerkOne]

5 minutes ago, At Sea At Peace said:

 

Could be, yet to see.

 

IMO, RCL is the pickle in the middle.  C

 

 

Could be. RCL has basically forced shipbuilders to back financing if they want an order for a new ship. Lots of dominoes could fall.

[cruisingguy007]

15 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

If Carnival goes bankrupt, creditors will be left to get what they can from scrapping the ships and I don't see that. Most likely they would restructure the Carnival debt.

 

Could go that way but sometimes a write off/down is just as valuable as repayment, occasionally even more valuable based on the way the loan is structured and default language (on paper anyway). It seems some of this type language is in these loans. Claiming promised theoreticals and stated penalty assessment losses could spike the paper write off beyond the amortized repayment amount, way way way beyond if specific triggers are written in and they usually are when this kind of money is involved. That way, you make money if repaid or not, win-win. Some folks look for these opportunistic ventures, essentially, looking to bet on dead horses for that paper/tax position or debt dumping. Ideally, these same folks could maximize the write offs and then just start over with clean loans, it isn't like Carnival doesn't know how to do this, it''s just doing it from so far behind becomes more challenging than simply starting over. Restructuring (kicking the can) only works when the finish line (black) is visible, it isn't viable for a decade and even then, only under optimal conditions and if everything goes right.  Anyone who doesn't see this as a possibility is fooling themselves.  

[BermudaBound2014]

Why not just file Chapter 11, wipe out the debt and emerge clean? 

[bucfan2]

1 hour ago, BlerkOne said:

 They have a lot more downside possibility.

 

Hmmm… more downside possibility is better than less. 

[JT1962]

42 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Why not just file Chapter 11, wipe out the debt and emerge clean? 

Isn’t much of the debt secured by some, if not all, of the ships? If the lenders take the ships to settle part of the debt, Carnival would have no ships left and have no way to continue in business. 

[tidecat]

42 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Why not just file Chapter 11, wipe out the debt and emerge clean? 

Creditors would object to a bankruptcy, and the courts may not allow it. It would also make no sense to declare bankruptcy when bills are able to be paid.

 

Remember that EBITDA less the interest expense was only around negative $100 million for Q3. With seven billion on hand in liquidity, this could go on for a while, although debt maturities prevent it from going on for 5-6 years.

 

There are also still ships that haven't resumed service yet, so as those last few ships come online, there should be more revenue.

[grandgeezer]

26 minutes ago, JT1962 said:

Isn’t much of the debt secured by some, if not all, of the ships? If the lenders take the ships to settle part of the debt, Carnival would have no ships left and have no way to continue in business. 

Why in the world would a financial institution take possession of a cruise ship? Where would they keep it? There are enormous costs to maintain it even if it’s just sitting there. There would be no market for it as the whole industry has the same problem. If and when the find a buyer, they would be lucky to get pennys on the dollar. Better off to sell it for scrap.

 

[cruisingguy007]

12 minutes ago, grandgeezer said:

Why in the world would a financial institution take possession of a cruise ship? Where would they keep it? There are enormous costs to maintain it even if it’s just sitting there. There would be no market for it as the whole industry has the same problem. If and when the find a buyer, they would be lucky to get pennys on the dollar. Better off to sell it for scrap.

 

 

Yup! 

[JT1962]

14 minutes ago, grandgeezer said:

Why in the world would a financial institution take possession of a cruise ship? Where would they keep it? There are enormous costs to maintain it even if it’s just sitting there. There would be no market for it as the whole industry has the same problem. If and when the find a buyer, they would be lucky to get pennys on the dollar. Better off to sell it for scrap.

 

I agree that the bank or lending institution would not want it, but Carnival may not still have it, unless the lenders agree to restructure / write down the debt. Carnival can’t just file bankruptcy, get rid of the debt, keep the ships and move on with no debt.

Edited October 1, 2022 by JT1962

[foodsvcmgr]

Don’t discount the virtual pyramid scheme known as cash flow.

As long as cash flow doesn’t get cut off again, such as the Covid shut down, that can cover for lack of actual profits for many years.

[Crusin Hogs]

With Carnival basically  turning their nose up at 30 to 40 % of their  customers  , for not being vaxed , That is one reason for the fare  cuts in price ,They are trying to make up for lost $$$ , The crowd they are now getting ,  will not spend the extra money on  t shirts, pictures , excursions   ect  ,, That  is why you now see  all the fights  ects on the ships ,, We  are platinum and will not cruise till all test and mask are gone , We have dozens of friends doing the same ,, They can  either wake up or go bankrupt 

[eroller]

4 hours ago, At Sea At Peace said:

 

Actually, you have to combine the two Carnival entities, under stock symbols CCL and CUK, to get the total Carnival Market CAP.

 

EOD today (pretty ugly the three leaders for the biggest losers for the day on Yahoo finance) ~

 

CCL $9.017B

CUK $7.700B

 

=$16.717B

 

NCL $4.787B

RCL $9.668B

 

 

Thank you.  I knew Carnival Corp was duel listed but I didn’t realize you combined the two in order to get the true market cap.  

[Inveterate Cruiser]

4 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

RCL has been taking on more and more debt. They have a lot more downside possibility.

 

NCL is likely the first to go bankrupt, if any of the big 3 do.

 

I disagree. Carnival will be the first to go down. 

[Inveterate Cruiser]

11 hours ago, ray98 said:

Yikes.....$7 a share.  They are still losing $8.5m a day during peak season with ships as close to full capacity as they have been since Covid. 

 

I foresee a tough road that may not end well; this debt load coupled with a declining outlook for this market segment due to a recession all adds up to a bad result.

 

Agreed. 90% occupancy and they're still losing $0.65 a share which is probably what drove the big sell off. I missed getting some stock at $7.01 today but think I will have more opportunity to do so next week or when RCL or NCLH report results. 

 

I never got a good sense of why the loss was so much larger than expected. Interest and depreciation expenses can be forecasted so that's unlikely the reason. I suspect it was the spike in oil prices and food inflation in June-Aug 2022 which means those should abate as the year goes by and in 2023. Unfortunately, I think Carnival also needs to learn from RCL's playbook - cut out free lunches at Cucina and Jiji, cut out lobster and steak at the MDR, raise drink package prices, sell far more specialty dining...... 

[cruisingguy007]

8 minutes ago, Inveterate Cruiser said:

90% occupancy and they're still losing $0.65 a share which is probably what drove the big sell off.

 

More likely is that folks are simply tax harvesting to offset other capital gains liabilities. There are a lot of people with large amounts of shares plus other equities/investments. The small fish who buy a few shares in hopes that they can hang on to them for a big return one day are a blip on the radar. Institutional investors and shakers and movers don't really play the game the same and loses can be booked for advantage and to open up  other positions.

[BlerkOne]

11 hours ago, ontheweb said:

Somehow the market reaction to the quarterly report did not seem to take in all the positives you have pointed out. 🤦‍♂️

They probably got their stock advice from internet cruise boards.

[BlerkOne]

5 hours ago, JT1962 said:

I agree that the bank or lending institution would not want it, but Carnival may not still have it, unless the lenders agree to restructure / write down the debt. Carnival can’t just file bankruptcy, get rid of the debt, keep the ships and move on with no debt.

They lose the ships guaranteed - they are pledged as collateral. Bankruptcy has no impact.

Edited October 1, 2022 by BlerkOne

[BlerkOne]

2 hours ago, Inveterate Cruiser said:

 

Agreed. 90% occupancy and they're still losing $0.65 a share which is probably what drove the big sell off. I missed getting some stock at $7.01 today but think I will have more opportunity to do so next week or when RCL or NCLH report results. 

 

 

Giving away too many free cabins. I may pick up some RCL at $30.

[pc_load_letter]

4 hours ago, Crusin Hogs said:

With Carnival basically  turning their nose up at 30 to 40 % of their  customers  , for not being vaxed , That is one reason for the fare  cuts in price ,They are trying to make up for lost $$$ , The crowd they are now getting ,  will not spend the extra money on  t shirts, pictures , excursions   ect  ,, That  is why you now see  all the fights  ects on the ships ,, We  are platinum and will not cruise till all test and mask are gone , We have dozens of friends doing the same ,, They can  either wake up or go bankrupt 

 

Hi there! I am sorry, I am trying to understand your statement. When did they turn their nose up at the 30-40% of their customers? Are you referring to unvaxed?

 

Unvaxed have always been able to cruise. I think it was carnival that had 5% reserved for unvaxed folks right from the beginning.

 

I totally respect your choice to not be vaxed. But there are no masks any longer. But yes, for unvaxed there is still pre-cruise testing.