Carnival Stock Below $10

[1kaper]

51 minutes ago, Arizona Sunshine said:

In a note to clients today, HSBC lowered their target for CCL to 6.80.

 

AS

 

Out of curiosity, for a layman like me who doesn't invest, what does that mean?

[Arizona Sunshine]

It means that the bank's analyst thinks the stock will fall to that price. (From 10.72 where it is today.)

 

AS

 

 

[ew101]

One of the things Wall Street likes to see in a company is how well management responds to adversity.  There is even a model- Porter's Five Forces- all the things that customers, suppliers and competitors can do to impact your business.  Some of these are out of your (short term) control.  The cruise industry and the Pandemic, the car companies and chip shortages, etc.   

 

In terms of the Pandemic, there are Harvard case studies on Zoom, the video conferencing people.  They did a masterful job of scaling up and adding features and using a very "agile" culture to respond.  Their stock price rocketed up.    These days, they are getting yelled at- as people are going back to the office and more competitors are entering and responding in the collaboration market- their stock price is falling.     

 

I would give the cruise industry low marks for their actions in early 2020- lots of anger, indignation and denial.   But, lately, looking at Carnival, they are doing their best to focus on selling cabins, poker chips and drink packages.   Senior leaders are all over guest satisfaction scores.  They are keeping people (staff + passengers) safe (as best they can).   This is despite fuel costs, shortages of staff, bacon, etc.  

Edited August 15, 2022 by ew101

[Ptroxx]

4 hours ago, Arizona Sunshine said:

In a note to clients today, HSBC lowered their target for CCL to 6.80.

 

AS

Lol. Last time it’s been that low was 1991.  Lowest it been in between was Covid April when it was 8.49.   
I just don’t see it getting that low again.  
 

thats why I jumped in at 8.49.   

[topaz123]

Excellent time to jump on the stock......unless you are part of the "GIMME NOW" generation. Besides you get OBC for a small purchase.....Purchasing another 100 now....

[mz-s]

3 hours ago, Tom-n-Cheryl said:

I've got to think that (at least for now) dropping fuel prices will give them a tad more breathing room.. or buy them more time.

 

Tom

 

Carnival doesn't just buy fuel at whatever the daily rate is at the local Citgo, they have huge contracts with suppliers. They probably negotiated a fuel contract when prices were at rock bottom.

 

3 hours ago, 1kaper said:

 

Out of curiosity, for a layman like me who doesn't invest, what does that mean?

 

That's where they expect the stock to be priced within a given timeframe, usually a year. The point is not necessarily the actual price they predict - but if that price is higher or lower than it is now, and by how much. That shows whether the analyst expects the company to be better or worse off then.

[At Sea At Peace]

14 minutes ago, DrSea said:

It's documented all over the threads and even youtube cruise channels with people demonizing the CDC both before and after restrictions were lifted. I heard from the very mouth of the former CDC guy in charge of the cruise industry with my own ears that all this was done to help the cruise industry, not penalize them. Yet others were bemoaning how unfair the CDC was singling out the cruise industry and not the airlines etc.

 

Some people just can't stop complaining. 

 

Some on CC were talking like they are epidemiologists and making up wild assertions that the scientific facts just simply did not support. It's what led me to put in my signature that I am an epidemiologist. I get their perspective. Sciencing is harder than people give credit for and people don't like uncertainty. 

 

This is a CCL stock thread.

[BlerkOne]

Royal just keeps piling on debt which can't be good.

[JT1962]

13 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

Royal just keeps piling on debt which can't be good.

They are using the new debt, which will be due in 2027, to pay off some debt which is due in 2022 & 2023. So the total debt isn’t substantially  increasing.
 

“The Company intends to use the proceeds from the sale of the Notes to repay principal payments on debt maturing in 2022 and/or 2023 (including to pay fees and expenses in connection with such repayments).”

 

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/royal-caribbean-group-announces-upsizing-and-pricing-of-1-250-000-000-senior-unsecured-notes-to-refinance-near-term-debt-maturities-301605996.html

Edited August 16, 2022 by JT1962

[mz-s]

15 minutes ago, JT1962 said:

They are using the new debt, which will be due in 2027, to pay off some debt which is due in 2022 & 2023. So the total debt isn’t substantially  increasing.
 

“The Company intends to use the proceeds from the sale of the Notes to repay principal payments on debt maturing in 2022 and/or 2023 (including to pay fees and expenses in connection with such repayments).”

 

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/royal-caribbean-group-announces-upsizing-and-pricing-of-1-250-000-000-senior-unsecured-notes-to-refinance-near-term-debt-maturities-301605996.html

 

Isn't that like putting your mortgage payment on a credit card?

[JT1962]

11 minutes ago, mz-s said:

 

Isn't that like putting your mortgage payment on a credit card?

 

It’s like refinancing your mortgage to give you some breathing room. Companies refinance debt often. Carnival has chosen to issue more stock recently to pay off debt, which reduces debt, but dilutes and lowers the value of the stock. All of the cruise lines have major debt issues and the next few years will be tough for some, if not all of them.

[mz-s]

1 hour ago, JT1962 said:

 

It’s like refinancing your mortgage to give you some breathing room. Companies refinance debt often. Carnival has chosen to issue more stock recently to pay off debt, which reduces debt, but dilutes and lowers the value of the stock. All of the cruise lines have major debt issues and the next few years will be tough for some, if not all of them.

I see, thanks!

[BlerkOne]

5 hours ago, JT1962 said:

They are using the new debt, which will be due in 2027, to pay off some debt which is due in 2022 & 2023. So the total debt isn’t substantially  increasing.
 

“The Company intends to use the proceeds from the sale of the Notes to repay principal payments on debt maturing in 2022 and/or 2023 (including to pay fees and expenses in connection with such repayments).”

 

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/royal-caribbean-group-announces-upsizing-and-pricing-of-1-250-000-000-senior-unsecured-notes-to-refinance-near-term-debt-maturities-301605996.html

It is exactly what Carnival does, but some slam Carnival when they do it.

 

Interest rates are higher now. Last time, Carnival elected to issue stock that they had already filed for.

[BlerkOne]

CCL is over $11 now.

[tidecat]

Some analysts seem intent on dying on the hill that we're going to have a severe recession. I just don't see Carnival getting to below $7 in the next 12 months as long as GDP stays within striking distance if not above zero.

[BlerkOne]

20 hours ago, mz-s said:

 

Carnival doesn't just buy fuel at whatever the daily rate is at the local Citgo, they have huge contracts with suppliers. They probably negotiated a fuel contract when prices were at rock bottom.

 

Carnival doesn't hedge fuel.

[cruisingguy007]

34 minutes ago, tidecat said:

Some analysts seem intent on dying on the hill that we're going to have a severe recession. I just don't see Carnival getting to below $7 in the next 12 months as long as GDP stays within striking distance if not above zero.

 

Some believe that a new strain of covid will come along that will once again cause havoc, that many past cruisers won't return to cruising and risk getting sick (people are still reporting large covid issues on some cruises), or that the economy will continue to soften further and prices continue to increase. Is it doom/gloom? Sure, but possible no doubt. If you cover every position then you can claim you were right, no matter what, even a broken clock is right twice a day.    

Edited August 16, 2022 by cruisingguy007

[Illbcruzn4life]

1 hour ago, BlerkOne said:

CCL is over $11 now.

RCL is over $44 now

[Ptroxx]

13 minutes ago, Illbcruzn4life said:

RCL is over $44 now

Why would this matter here in CC section.   I’m sure there’s a post like this on RCL.   

[BlerkOne]

50 minutes ago, Illbcruzn4life said:

RCL is over $44 now

Carnival can have that effect. 😁

[BlerkOne]

1 hour ago, cruisingguy007 said:

 

Some believe that a new strain of covid will come along that will once again cause havoc, that many past cruisers won't return to cruising and risk getting sick (people are still reporting large covid issues on some cruises), or that the economy will continue to soften further and prices continue to increase. Is it doom/gloom? Sure, but possible no doubt. If you cover every position then you can claim you were right, no matter what, even a broken clock is right twice a day.    

Cruisers can have some relief in that a booster that helps with the latest variants has been approved in England and so is coming!

[cruisingguy007]

3 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

Cruisers can have some relief in that a booster that helps with the latest variants has been approved in England and so is coming!

 

Should be coming here soon too, contracts are just being finalized, the price went up about 50% per dose and they are making sure there is enough doses before announcing the roll out. Should be sometime in Sept so that's great news, the sooner the better IMO. Should be a quick roll out once the ball gets rolling. There is talk of authorizing another booster of the current vaccine and then offering the updated version ASAP but there are two camps with differing opinions on if it should be offered or just have folks wait. The under 50 folks are well past due so they need to get it together and make a decision.       

[ontheweb]

2 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

CCL is over $11 now.

Woo Hoo! But being over $10 a share is not really some magic place.

[CruzDayz]

50 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

Woo Hoo! But being over $10 a share is not really some magic place.

It is when it has been hanging around $8.00 for awhile. Baby steps. 🙂

[Tom-n-Cheryl]

1 hour ago, CruzDayz said:

It is when it has been hanging around $8.00 for awhile. Baby steps. 🙂

 

If I had only invested $1B when it was $8, I could have made out like a bandit !

Tom