Carnival Stock Below $10

[BlerkOne]

5 hours ago, FSHLOT said:

I think people are getting tired of CCL always blaming something/someone else. Always an excuse with them. 

I guess some people can't handle the truth.

[ray98]

Yikes.....$7 a share.  They are still losing $8.5m a day during peak season with ships as close to full capacity as they have been since Covid. 

 

I foresee a tough road that may not end well; this debt load coupled with a declining outlook for this market segment due to a recession all adds up to a bad result.

[BlerkOne]

Obviously the gamblers aren't losing enough. Time to cut back on the free cabins.

[d12j28]

4 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

Obviously the gamblers aren't losing enough. Time to cut back on the free cabins.

Maybe you're not spending enough on room service. 

[BlerkOne]

49 minutes ago, d12j28 said:

Maybe you're not spending enough on room service. 

I'm too busy paying for steakhouse and other specialty dining. and wine packages. etc. and I also visit the casino. I likely spend more than many of the so called gamblers.

[BlerkOne]

One might think the earnings report was all doom and gloom. For the rest of the news

 

• Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter of 2022 was over $300 million, turning positive for the first time since the resumption of guest cruise operations and marking a significant milestone.
• Revenue increased by nearly 80% in the third quarter of 2022 compared to second quarter 2022, reflecting continued sequential improvement.
• Occupancy in the third quarter of 2022 increased 15 percentage points from the prior quarter.

[Tom-n-Cheryl]

Agree - I think there's plenty of upside!

[arsenic74]

2 hours ago, firefly333 said:

Rcl has great sales for all. Carnival needs some sales for non casino. They are losing people. I cant tell you how many I see say they have only cruised carnival but trying rcl .. prices I see are just better on rcl. Be competitive carnival. Need a sale.

 

I'm not sure from which planet you're seeing better prices on RCL...

[d12j28]

12 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

I'm too busy paying for steakhouse and other specialty dining. and wine packages. etc. and I also visit the casino. I likely spend more than many of the so called gamblers.

If you spend enough the casino will comp you those specialty dining places. 😁

[BlerkOne]

6 minutes ago, d12j28 said:

If you spend enough the casino will comp you those specialty dining places. 😁

Which is why Carnival needs to cut back on free rooms.

[d12j28]

9 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

Which is why Carnival needs to cut back on free rooms.

They would lose out if they cut back on free rooms. Real gamblers aren't going to pay for a cruise just to gamble on a Carnival ship. They'll take their money where it's wanted.

[At Sea At Peace]

42 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

One might think the earnings report was all doom and gloom. For the rest of the news

 

• Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter of 2022 was over $300 million, turning positive for the first time since the resumption of guest cruise operations and marking a significant milestone.
• Revenue increased by nearly 80% in the third quarter of 2022 compared to second quarter 2022, reflecting continued sequential improvement.
• Occupancy in the third quarter of 2022 increased 15 percentage points from the prior quarter.

 

Possibly.

 

However, this 'was supposed to be' the best quarter, profitable and to sustain it through the next 2 quarters which are historically weak; never mind during a massive economic malaise where discretionary spending is heavily scaled back.

 

IMO, they've adjusted the 'spin' with the EBITDA focus.  Wouldn't everyone like to not take into account their Interest Expense (a cash outflow) and Depreciation (huge for a cruise line with ships)?

 

The cruise industry operators, through no fault of their own, were building on an expanding customer base by both age and geographic demographics, rolling out new ships at record sizes and rates.  Their growth rate was solid.

 

Then...

 

Covid.

Lockdowns.

CDC.

Vaccinations.

Masks.

Fuel surge.

Food cost surge.

Labor shortage.

 

Now, an economic collapse.

 

Now, cruising for a large piece of the planned (rightfully so, no finger to point) customer growing base, it, as well as the cost to fly to a port and stay at a hotel, is totally 'discretionary' as people deal with the problems of massive inflation, hard costs of gas to drive, fuel to heat homes, electricity powered by the same, and the cost of food (obscene IMO)....

 

A mess.

 

IMO, the final domino.

 

The cruise lines will be crushed in their current form.  None will make it.  CCL is the elephant in the room.  It will go down  first, and hard.  A beast to unwind also.

 

The newest, most efficient and best ships will still sail; under what organizational umbrella is still yet to be seen.

 

🙄

 

The 'debt issues' trading is nasty also.  Regardless of the debt collateral held, in a reorganization process there is 'the cost of the process' (nasty law firms, reorganization support firms etc.) and the potential for 'a haircut' on the debt, on top of suspended interest payments, add to the debtholders desire to unload.

Edited September 30, 2022 by At Sea At Peace

[Tom-n-Cheryl]

If they had only put coffee makers in the rooms years ago!

 

😉

[BamaCruiser39]

28 minutes ago, d12j28 said:

They would lose out if they cut back on free rooms. Real gamblers aren't going to pay for a cruise just to gamble on a Carnival ship. They'll take their money where it's wanted.

Yup. That's exactly why I'm sailing on Carnival for the first time in a few weeks. I was an NCL loyalist (so much so that I was on their first post-Covid sailing out of the US even after a somewhat short-notice port and ship change) until they lessened their casino comps post-Covid  (and kept asinine $20 per day "admin fees" for comped bookings) and sent most of their non-high rollers to Carnival/RCCL/Celebrity who are offering better comps for less actual and theo loss. 

[ontheweb]

1 hour ago, BlerkOne said:

One might think the earnings report was all doom and gloom. For the rest of the news

 

• Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter of 2022 was over $300 million, turning positive for the first time since the resumption of guest cruise operations and marking a significant milestone.
• Revenue increased by nearly 80% in the third quarter of 2022 compared to second quarter 2022, reflecting continued sequential improvement.
• Occupancy in the third quarter of 2022 increased 15 percentage points from the prior quarter.

Somehow the market reaction to the quarterly report did not seem to take in all the positives you have pointed out. 🤦‍♂️

[BamaCruiser39]

Just now, BamaCruiser39 said:

Yup. That's exactly why I'm sailing on Carnival for the first time in a few weeks. I was an NCL loyalist (so much so that I was on their first post-Covid sailing out of the US even after a somewhat short-notice departure port and ship change) until they lessened their casino comps post-Covid  (and kept their asinine $20 per day "admin fees" for comped bookings).

 

It seems that of most of NCL's non-high rollers are going to Carnival/RCCL/Celebrity who are offering much better comps based on less actual and theo loss. 

 

[foodsvcmgr]

I’m the contrarian here, I bought all three major cruise stocks today.

I think too many people are viewing the cruise market with Depression era thought processes.

Undoubtably there will be a percentage of people near the bottom of the economic spectrum who had been hoping to take a vacation or cruise and now are unable to do so due to other out of control expenses.

However for many others cruising is now thought of as a right or entitlement almost, other discretionary spending will be cut out far sooner than vacations.

Read surveys and opinion polls on this topic,

not just stock analysts and the bots that are programmed to bail and drive shares down.

Besides buying stock, I’m still cruising, aren’t you?

[aimee0715]

16 minutes ago, foodsvcmgr said:

I’m the contrarian here, I bought all three major cruise stocks today.

I think too many people are viewing the cruise market with Depression era thought processes.

Undoubtably there will be a percentage of people near the bottom of the economic spectrum who had been hoping to take a vacation or cruise and now are unable to do so due to other out of control expenses.

However for many others cruising is now thought of as a right or entitlement almost, other discretionary spending will be cut out far sooner than vacations.

Read surveys and opinion polls on this topic,

not just stock analysts and the bots that are programmed to bail and drive shares down.

Besides buying stock, I’m still cruising, aren’t you?

I own CCL stock and considering buying the other two.  We normally sail Princess but we're booked on Celebrity in November, NCL in February, and a b2b on Virgin in May.  Still cruising for sure!

[firefly333]

1 hour ago, arsenic74 said:

 

I'm not sure from which planet you're seeing better prices on RCL...

Galveston. And it doesnt hurt rcl now give me a solo discount and I get 250 off balcony. $721 allure inside next sept inclusive fees and taxes. Cant even do vista under $800. Jubilee is over $1200 the cheapest date, and much more other dates. Cant do the one date on jubilee .. booked dream that date jan 2024. 

 

If you know of a way to get carnival cheaper ... every roll call I got carnival cruisers now because rcl has going going gone last minute they all jumped on. Just got back last sunday. It costs me extra to fly so it's not worth flying to florida to me. I sure wish I could find a way to get carnival for less than advertised. No cheap group rates like rcl. No solo discount. And yes I'm only watching Galveston when I say carnival is pricing itself out of my reach. 

 

Carnival needs to run a sale. All I get emails for is money off a 2nd pax. Great. NOT. I'm solo. I just got the solo discount but my TA hasnt yet applied the 25% off. The $825 is for a inside balcony, allure b2b same price each week before the 25% off solo is applied. Should have the lower price confirmed by monday. I can show you carnivals price side by side .. it's more each week. Yes the 25% off solo on rcl is limited and only against the cruisefare. I'm in the process of seeing which ones I can get repriced. 

 

Carnival does let me book gty which I appreciate. Rcl is goofy and can be higher for solo than for 2. I can name some dates on rcl like march 27 radiance goofy for solo and unfair .. each has their downside. People on rcl threads complain rcl is cheaper out of Galveston than florida. It's not a hot market like for carnival. Carnival for me needs to maybe consider loyalty perks if not a real sale.

 

But for me in texas .. carnival costs more. Again this is before my solo discount is applied. 250 off is diamond plus balcony discount. I have a date on harmony its $18 cheaper to book a balcony than a inside because of my loyalty tier. And jubilee is in by then and of course lots more expensive. I can do side by side all day and for me carnival is always hundreds more expensive. Idk what site I'm allowed to show side by side without getting in trouble. Hopefully I got enough blocked out just the ship, date and type of cabin and price shows .. you all can see carnival. And I'll get 25% more off .. any cabin. 

 

 

Edited September 30, 2022 by firefly333

[eroller]

Never a better time to buy 100 shares and earn that Carnival Corp. shareholder credit.  You will probably never get it cheaper. 

 

While all cruise line stocks are down, currently Carnival Corp stock has dropped so dramatically that Royal Caribbean has a higher market capitalization than Carnival.  That is rather unusual. 

 

 

[cruisingguy007]

44 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

Somehow the market reaction to the quarterly report did not seem to take in all the positives you have pointed out. 🤦‍♂️

 

Yet, there are plenty of positives nonetheless. Sometimes vultures are only happy with a pound of flesh, it's not a surprising reaction and par for the course. Rebounds take time and when you're this dug in, it will be a slow and arduous journey. The market is all about impatience and reactionary fit-pitching. It's more speculation and gambling, based on feelings, than true investing these days.

[firefly333]

If I didnt already have a large ccl position I'd take a chance and buy more.

 

I do think companies with a lot of debt in these higher rate times wouldnt fare well near term. They need to start making a profit. And I dont see my other post but oil is apt to go up this winter. Rcl hedged 6 months out and I remember ccl did not hedge for higher oil prices which hurt them already. 

 

Saudi plans on making sure oil goes higher, opec meets next week. 

[bucfan2]

2 hours ago, ontheweb said:

Somehow the market reaction to the quarterly report did not seem to take in all the positives you have pointed out. 🤦‍♂️

The scary truth is….they’ve been taking it all in. 

[At Sea At Peace]

1 hour ago, eroller said:

Never a better time to buy 100 shares and earn that Carnival Corp. shareholder credit.  You will probably never get it cheaper. 

 

While all cruise line stocks are down, currently Carnival Corp stock has dropped so dramatically that Royal Caribbean has a higher market capitalization than Carnival.  That is rather unusual. 

 

 

 

Actually, you have to combine the two Carnival entities, under stock symbols CCL and CUK, to get the total Carnival Market CAP.

 

EOD today (pretty ugly the three leaders for the biggest losers for the day on Yahoo finance) ~

 

CCL $9.017B

CUK $7.700B

 

=$16.717B

 

NCL $4.787B

RCL $9.668B

 

[ontheweb]

On 8/16/2022 at 1:05 PM, BlerkOne said:

CCL is over $11 now.

And where is it NOW?