Gettingwarmer Posted October 10, 2022 #101 Share Posted October 10, 2022 Just now, sandancer said: July 2023? Are you saying that the obc won’t apply after that. It is renewed every year. With the reduction in price it cannot be guaranteed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wowzz Posted October 10, 2022 #102 Share Posted October 10, 2022 1 hour ago, sandancer said: July 2023? Are you saying that the obc won’t apply after that. The shareholded obc benefit has to approved every year, around July, so theoretically it can be withdrawn. Personally I think it unlikely that it will be stopped, given the resentment such action would cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCFC Posted October 10, 2022 #103 Share Posted October 10, 2022 Its approved at the AGM in March, cant see them stopping it, the share price is irrelevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Son of Anarchy Posted October 10, 2022 #104 Share Posted October 10, 2022 2 hours ago, sandancer said: July 2023? Are you saying that the obc won’t apply after that. Every year Carnival state how much the shareholder OBC is for each of their cruise companies. We first bought shares about 12 years ago. Each year since the shareholder OBC has been renewed and is currently applicable on cruises through 31 July 2023 2021 US Annual Report (carnivalcorporation.com) I can't remember what time of year they announce the next "extension" of shareholder OBC. They can always choose not to renew/extend it, but have always done so since we got our shares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare silkworms Posted October 11, 2022 #105 Share Posted October 11, 2022 Bought shares last week at 5.28, today they are under £5! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
majortom10 Posted October 11, 2022 #106 Share Posted October 11, 2022 I should imagine the Carnival senior management are very worried about the share price. Not all due to the general fall in markets around the world, there has to be a lack of confidence regarding the debt and whether Carnival will survive. Think recent announcement by new CEO that all cruises are being sold too cheap is not the problem. If they increase fares across all the brand's bookings will drop and put further strain on share price and the company. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davecttr Posted October 11, 2022 #107 Share Posted October 11, 2022 If Carnival go belly up what happens to the money I forked out on my April cruise moved twice because of the disease. I paid by credit card so it it actually the banks money which is at risk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cruise_Rookie_2010 Posted October 11, 2022 #108 Share Posted October 11, 2022 2 hours ago, davecttr said: If Carnival go belly up what happens to the money I forked out on my April cruise moved twice because of the disease. I paid by credit card so it it actually the banks money which is at risk. If you paid by credit card, in the event of bankruptcy, you're protected. You simply claim against the credit card company. There's not a great chance of that event happening, the share price has absolutely no effect on the operation of the company, it's cash (or access to further borrowing) which determines whether the business continues to operate. All major cruise companies shares are trading at many times less than their historic highs at the minute (Norwegian down approx 80% vs all time high, Royal Caribbean down 70%), Carnival is simply the worst of the bunch right now. Being the biggest player, should sentiment change on the future of cruising, it's also possible it'll bounce right back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cruise_Rookie_2010 Posted October 11, 2022 #109 Share Posted October 11, 2022 6 hours ago, majortom10 said: I should imagine the Carnival senior management are very worried about the share price. Not all due to the general fall in markets around the world, there has to be a lack of confidence regarding the debt and whether Carnival will survive. Think recent announcement by new CEO that all cruises are being sold too cheap is not the problem. If they increase fares across all the brand's bookings will drop and put further strain on share price and the company. Can't say I completely disagree with the new CEO, current pricing of some cruises makes you wonder how on earth they are making anything on them. We've enjoyed 2 cruises this year and paid approx £50 per night (pp). Show me any similar holiday that could match that kind of value, no doubt it's to ensure customers keep sailing during the uncertain period we've just experienced, but if this continues & people start to think any increase is unjustified the whole industry is in trouble. Before C19 we would budget between £80-120 pppn (inside/balcony) and felt we got incredible value for money. With all the new ships being launched it's going to be a buyers market for the next year or so, unless cruise lines cut capacity by phasing out older/smaller ships earlier than planned. Until then I'm booking as many bargain cruises as I can without being sacked. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cruise_Rookie_2010 Posted October 11, 2022 #110 Share Posted October 11, 2022 6 hours ago, silkworms said: Bought shares last week at 5.28, today they are under £5! Don't look would be my advice, I paid £12.30 each and thought they were cheap at the time. The shareholder benefit is helping soften the blow ( a little). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
majortom10 Posted October 11, 2022 #111 Share Posted October 11, 2022 54 minutes ago, Cruise_Rookie_2010 said: Can't say I completely disagree with the new CEO, current pricing of some cruises makes you wonder how on earth they are making anything on them. We've enjoyed 2 cruises this year and paid approx £50 per night (pp). Show me any similar holiday that could match that kind of value, no doubt it's to ensure customers keep sailing during the uncertain period we've just experienced, but if this continues & people start to think any increase is unjustified the whole industry is in trouble. Before C19 we would budget between £80-120 pppn (inside/balcony) and felt we got incredible value for money. With all the new ships being launched it's going to be a buyers market for the next year or so, unless cruise lines cut capacity by phasing out older/smaller ships earlier than planned. Until then I'm booking as many bargain cruises as I can without being sacked. They are only selling at that price currently due to people not cruising because of cost of living crisis/fuel prices or because of fear of COVID. The cost of living crisis isn't going to change anytime soon so in raising prices will just mean less bookings and lowering prices to fill ships. Unfortunately it is a vicious circle that isn't going to change and improve Carnival's finances or share price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
molecrochip Posted October 11, 2022 #112 Share Posted October 11, 2022 7 hours ago, majortom10 said: I should imagine the Carnival senior management are very worried about the share price. Not all due to the general fall in markets around the world, there has to be a lack of confidence regarding the debt and whether Carnival will survive. Think recent announcement by new CEO that all cruises are being sold too cheap is not the problem. If they increase fares across all the brand's bookings will drop and put further strain on share price and the company. I'm not convinced that the share price is a major concern here. The entire cruise market has followed a similar trend therefore its not just Carnival who have tanked. Carnival are the biggest therefore their movement has been the biggest but that's to be expected. The analysts expected better from the last earnings call as they had been led to expect better. There was an analyst on CNBC the following day who was clear that Carnival said one thing in their statement then back-tracked on that in their earnings call. This details a company with mixed opinions as to where it is headed. The earnings calls have been an Arnold & David double act for years to the degree that they could finish each other's sentences. This time Josh and David were not on the same page. Yes, some elements are being sold to cheaply but thats strategy. If you're an expanding value driven brand - CCL, P&O, Princess to name a few, as you add significant capacity, you reduce cost to fill the capacity whilst still making your previous levels of profit. Then once you have all your customers covered to existing customers, you incrementally increase the price of the product. What you have is a two year gap in that cycle which has pushed back capacity additions and thus pushed back price rises. If you're a Cunard, HAL, Seaborn then you add capacity at a much slower scale and therefore don't alter your pricing structure. These brands are typically looking for existing cruise sector customers who want to 'step-up'. What is interesting is P&O have yet to have the new CEOs detailed strategic review which, for example, Princess has - remember those very successful Princess Plus fares? Its not a surprise that P&O weren't first as Josh had been closer to P&O and Cunard before leaving for the US. I wonder if 2023 could be the time for Paul Ludlow to say '2 new ships, covid restart complete, job done' and move elsewhere within the Company. His track record says that he is career ambitious. Are we at the bottom? I think that may wait for January depending largely on oil prices. I think we -could hit £4 before we see the turn. My end of 2023 target is £10ps. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pmd98052 Posted October 13, 2022 #113 Share Posted October 13, 2022 On 10/11/2022 at 6:20 PM, Cruise_Rookie_2010 said: Don't look would be my advice, I paid £12.30 each and thought they were cheap at the time. The shareholder benefit is helping soften the blow ( a little). heh - I have 100 shares bought years ago at $37. 🙂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ludoernie Posted October 13, 2022 #114 Share Posted October 13, 2022 Thinking of buying some shares, can anyone tell me do you have to book through p&o to get the obc or can you still book with a travel agent thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianI Posted October 13, 2022 #115 Share Posted October 13, 2022 You can book your cruise either direct with P&O or with a travel agent. Makes no difference. You just need your cruise booking reference. Brian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ludoernie Posted October 13, 2022 #116 Share Posted October 13, 2022 44 minutes ago, BrianI said: You can book your cruise either direct with P&O or with a travel agent. Makes no difference. You just need your cruise booking reference. Brian Thank you for the info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheshire Posted October 14, 2022 #117 Share Posted October 14, 2022 Vary easy transaction and with even just 100 shares the onboard spend is a return of nearly 30% per cruise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yorkshirephil Posted November 2, 2022 #118 Share Posted November 2, 2022 Interesting comment about improved booking volumes since the relaxation of protocols. CARNIVAL EXPECTING Q4 LOSS, SHARES SINK (Sharecast News) - Carnival shares sank on Friday after the cruise operator said it expects to make a loss in the fourth quarter. The company said it expects a net loss and breakeven to slightly negative adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter ending November 30. In its results for the third quarter, Carnival said net losses narrowed to $770m from $2.8bn in the same period a year earlier, as onboard and other revenues rose to $4.3bn from $546m. Chief executive officer Josh Weinstein said: "Since announcing the relaxation of our protocols last month, we have seen a meaningful improvement in booking volumes and are now running considerably ahead of strong 2019 levels. "We expect to further capitalise on this momentum with renewed efforts to generate demand. We are focused on delivering significant revenue growth over the long-term, while taking advantage of near-term tactics to quickly capture price and bookings in the interim." Weinstein said Carnival continued its positive trajectory in Q3, achieving more than $300m of adjusted EBITDA and reaching nearly 90% occupancy on its August sailings. "We are continuing to close the gap to 2019 as we progress through the year, building occupancy on higher capacity and lower unit costs," he said. London-listed Carnival shares were down 19% at 1605 BST at 595.80p. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wowzz Posted November 2, 2022 #119 Share Posted November 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, yorkshirephil said: London-listed Carnival shares were down 19% at 1605 BST at 595.80p. I think that should read 695.80. Still pretty dismal though ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianI Posted November 2, 2022 #120 Share Posted November 2, 2022 (edited) CARNIVAL EXPECTING Q4 LOSS, SHARES SINK This is an old statement dated 30 Sep. Current price is 697p Brian Edited November 2, 2022 by BrianI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wowzz Posted November 2, 2022 #121 Share Posted November 2, 2022 14 minutes ago, BrianI said: CARNIVAL EXPECTING Q4 LOSS, SHARES SINK This is an old statement dated 30 Sep. Current price is 697p Brian So in fact the share price has improved in recent weeks ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yorkshirephil Posted November 2, 2022 #122 Share Posted November 2, 2022 10 minutes ago, wowzz said: So in fact the share price has improved in recent weeks ! They have, just over £5.00 three weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
molecrochip Posted November 2, 2022 #123 Share Posted November 2, 2022 1 hour ago, yorkshirephil said: They have, just over £5.00 three weeks ago. In fact hit about 474p. NCL and RCI have Q3 updates due shortly so might see some more movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobstheboy Posted November 2, 2022 #124 Share Posted November 2, 2022 19 minutes ago, molecrochip said: In fact hit about 474p. NCL and RCI have Q3 updates due shortly so might see some more movement. Why would NCL and RCI updates be relevant to Carnival shares ? Am I missing something ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrierjohn Posted November 2, 2022 #125 Share Posted November 2, 2022 Just now, bobstheboy said: Why would NCL and RCI updates be relevant to Carnival shares ? Am I missing something ? If they show a further improvement the market will likely assume that Carnival will also have improved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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