Positive outlook

[molecrochip]

One hopes that things are looking up. Carnival corp, P&O's parent company today released its Q1 figures. Q1 includes the Wave period which motivates bookings for the year ahead.

 

Headlines:

- Loss was lower than expected. (bear in mind that most profit is made in Q3)

- EBITDA was higher than expected.

- Fuel was $31m worse than predicted

- Revenue was 95% of 2019 levels (some ships e.g. Costa still note back).

- Highest booking volumes for an quarter in history. Record breaking in North America and Australia.

- Record Q1 customer deposits - record broken by 16%.

- Positive cash in-flow from operations for first time post Pandemic.

- More liquidity than at end of Q4.

 

[Windsurfboy]

Shares up , but still well under water c.f. pre covid

[wowzz]

Shares have soared by over 1% today! 

At this rate, by 2027 I'll have recouped my losses. 

[david63]

They were doing OK until @molecrochip started this topic🤨

[yorkshirephil]

4 minutes ago, david63 said:

They were doing OK until @molecrochip started this topic🤨

The market doesn't seem as impressed as Moley, beating targets is OK as long as they were not set too low in the first place. 

[davecttr]

The share price is well down on the price I paid but I did not buy for the share price. This year my shareholder benefit is 28% of the share purchase price tax free. Not a bad rate of interest 🤑

[jh1809]

So what's EBITDA?

 

[yorkshirephil]

2 minutes ago, jh1809 said:

So what's EBITDA?

 

Bit like Allisons bread; wi' nowt taken aht

[jh1809]

Thanks.

[Yorkypete]

It looks like good news for Carnival but statistics can hide a lot.Carnival expected to lose some $750 million for the first quarter but ONLY lost $693 million which by all accounts is good. They also hold $5.7billion in deposits. This is our money paid in advance  ( often paid many months in advance) and they will be getting a large amount of interest on this.Couple that with having to pay for the whole cruise months in advance and the cruise companies will be making millions for nothing. A good business if you could get away with something like this in the real world.

[majortom10]

26 minutes ago, Yorkypete said:

It looks like good news for Carnival but statistics can hide a lot.Carnival expected to lose some $750 million for the first quarter but ONLY lost $693 million which by all accounts is good. They also hold $5.7billion in deposits. This is our money paid in advance  ( often paid many months in advance) and they will be getting a large amount of interest on this.Couple that with having to pay for the whole cruise months in advance and the cruise companies will be making millions for nothing. A good business if you could get away with something like this in the real world.

Don't all holiday companies have customers deposits well in advance and earn interest on sum. They also demand full payment of holiday 12+ weeks in advance as per booking conditions. Cruise companies are no different than any holiday company.

Edited March 27, 2023 by majortom10

[wowzz]

2 hours ago, Yorkypete said:

Couple that with having to pay for the whole cruise months in advance and the cruise companies will be making millions for nothing. A good business if you could get away with something like this in the real world.

Apart from the fact that Carnival took on an enormous amount of debt during the pandemic at  eyewatering rates of interest. The amount of interest they get on customer payments is insignificant in comparison.

And as for getting away with it - how about supermarkets who sell products and get paid immediately but take 90 days to pay their suppliers ? There are far more obvious "targets" out there than cruise lines.

[tring]

11 minutes ago, wowzz said:

Apart from the fact that Carnival took on an enormous amount of debt during the pandemic at  eyewatering rates of interest. The amount of interest they get on customer payments is insignificant in comparison.

 

 

What they will be doing with the deposits/payments though is to pay down some of their debt, so effecively they are benefiting from more than what they would get if the money was put on deposit.  That is basically why holiday companies could not refund those payments when covid struck.

 

Not sure what rate their debts are at currently though as Moley has said in recent months that those really high interest loans have been re financed at lower rates.

 

2 hours ago, majortom10 said:

Don't all holiday companies have customers deposits well in advance and earn interest on sum. They also demand full payment of holiday 12+ weeks in advance as per booking conditions. Cruise companies are no different than any holiday company.

 

Many, yes, but not all holiday companies.  Kuoni only take full payment one month before you travel. 

 

They are also happy to let you transfer a booking to another country, even relatively near the travel date.  They cannot do that after they have allocated a flight to you though, which is fairly near departure (possibly only about a month from what I remember).  They can do that because they just buy flights according to how many bookings they have, so until you are actually named against a specific flight, they could allocate that flight to someone else and are willing to do so without charge as long as you do not transfer to a cheaper flight/holiday.  The disadvantage of that is until you are allocated that flight you cannot book flight seats, but I think you can ask to have your flight confirmed to your name a bit earlier to allow that.  Has not been a problem for us to buy flight seats with Emirates just before travel though.

  

[terrierjohn]

2 hours ago, Yorkypete said:

It looks like good news for Carnival but statistics can hide a lot.Carnival expected to lose some $750 million for the first quarter but ONLY lost $693 million which by all accounts is good. They also hold $5.7billion in deposits. This is our money paid in advance  ( often paid many months in advance) and they will be getting a large amount of interest on this.Couple that with having to pay for the whole cruise months in advance and the cruise companies will be making millions for nothing. A good business if you could get away with something like this in the real world.

Is this an about turn for you Pete, weren't you recently predicting that Carnival were going bust?

[Yorkypete]

28 minutes ago, terrierjohn said:

Is this an about turn for you Pete, weren't you recently predicting that Carnival were going bust?

Not an about turn at all. I was suggesting that 'only $693 million in debt' is a good figure to some...but it is still  a massive debt...and remember Carnival have got rid of some ships. I still predict that at least P&O will be in trouble within a few years. This is based two-fold. Firstly with them only bringing out large ships they will be  less itineries they can produce meaning people will get fed up of same old same old. The only happy people will be those who treat cruises as floating holiday camps. Secondly climate change legislation will mean less and less ports will want large numbers of people in their towns and polluting ships in their waters. I want a cruise which will take me to places of interest and culture, not some floating Disney World.

[Yorkypete]

3 hours ago, majortom10 said:

Don't all holiday companies have customers deposits well in advance and earn interest on sum. They also demand full payment of holiday 12+ weeks in advance as per booking conditions. Cruise companies are no different than any holiday company.

Some holiday companies may. Most hotels I stay in you can pay on arrival, having paid a 10% deposit.

 

[terrierjohn]

1 minute ago, Yorkypete said:

Not an about turn at all. I was suggesting that 'only $693 million in debt' is a good figure to some...but it is still  a massive debt...and remember Carnival have got rid of some ships. I still predict that at least P&O will be in trouble within a few years. This is based two-fold. Firstly with them only bringing out large ships they will be  less itineries they can produce meaning people will get fed up of same old same old. The only happy people will be those who treat cruises as floating holiday camps. Secondly climate change legislation will mean less and less ports will want large numbers of people in their towns and polluting ships in their waters. I want a cruise which will take me to places of interest and culture, not some floating Disney World.

I think when it comes to cruising you are in a minority. If you really want to immerse yourself in culture somewhere interesting, then you are much better doing a land based holiday, and IMO the majority of new cruisers  do want a floating resort.

I have already expressed my doubts that environmental issues are likely to significantly impact the cruise industry. Will check back with you in 10 years time, if I am still here.

[terrierjohn]

4 minutes ago, Yorkypete said:

Some holiday companies may. Most hotels I stay in you can pay on arrival, having paid a 10% deposit.

 

Very many holiday cottage type holiday companies want final payment 3 months out, just like P&O, granted Premier Inn type hotels do offer an option to pay on arrival.

[wowzz]

28 minutes ago, terrierjohn said:

Premier Inn type hotels do offer an option to pay on arrival.

 Deleted.

Edited March 27, 2023 by wowzz

[Yorkypete]

21 minutes ago, wowzz said:

 Deleted.

I stay in 4* hotels, mainly in Malta. Premier Inn are a little bit too small for a two week stay.

 

[Yorkypete]

49 minutes ago, terrierjohn said:

Very many holiday cottage type holiday companies want final payment 3 months out, just like P&O, granted Premier Inn type hotels do offer an option to pay on arrival.

I certainly do not stay in Premier Inn types abroad. It is usually 4* hotels in Malta and other areas and most want a deposit and pay the balance on arrival. As to wanting ports on a cruise rather than a floating theme park I would guess I was in the majority of those retired passengers. Maybe the ships will eventually be filled with the under thirties but thankfully I will not be amongst them.

[yorkshirephil]

7 hours ago, Yorkypete said:

As to wanting ports on a cruise rather than a floating theme park I would guess I was in the majority of those retired passengers. Maybe the ships will eventually be filled with the under thirties but thankfully I will not be amongst them.

My experience over the last six years since retirement is that a lot of retired people want the ship to be the holiday resort as they are too infirm to walk around a lot or have been there before. We are now dropping into this category, when we go to the Caribbean in winter we will stop on the ship in some ports and it is surprising how many are just happy to sit out in the sun/shade.

[Josy1953]

13 minutes ago, yorkshirephil said:

My experience over the last six years since retirement is that a lot of retired people want the ship to be the holiday resort as they are too infirm to walk around a lot or have been there before. We are now dropping into this category, when we go to the Caribbean in winter we will stop on the ship in some ports and it is surprising how many are just happy to sit out in the sun/shade.

We are in the later years of life but we still like to get off the ship at every port to go for a stroll around regardless of how many times we may have visited the parts before.

[Britboys]

One of the other little nuggets to come out of the report is that apart from the 4 ships that are currently on order, there will be no further new ships ordered before 2026 at the earliest and maybe beyond that. Also, that growth in the fleet will be much slower after 26/27. 

This suggests that it is very unlikely that P&O will get another ship for a few years yet. Of course that doesn't 100% rule out a change of plan or the possibility of a ship being transferred between brands but certainly looks unlikely.

Edited March 28, 2023 by Britboys

[terrierjohn]

36 minutes ago, Josy1953 said:

We are in the later years of life but we still like to get off the ship at every port to go for a stroll around regardless of how many times we may have visited the parts before.

Going for a stroll around somewhere you have been before, which is what we .mainly do, isn't really the same as seeking out the local culture and visiting different places.

Edited March 28, 2023 by terrierjohn