Arcadia or Aurora first to go

[Cynthia Darch]

Having travelled many times on both since launch, things are looking bleak for both these ships. I have to say I always had a preference for Arcadia but oh she has gone downhill so much, but Aurora is older so which one is going first and when do you think.

[jeanlyon]

Why is it looking bleak?  Just cruised on Aurora in October and she was really good.  That's not to say they won't decide to sell them.  But nobody knows and usually it's a last minute decision.

[Pine Man]

20 minutes ago, Cynthia Darch said:

which one is going first and when do you think.

I don't think about it at all.

 

Both ships are superb and I will continue to cruise on them as long as they survive.

[Selbourne]

All ships have a limited lifespan and these two ships are no different, but I don’t accept the premise that the future is bleak for them. Admittedly, they don’t really fit with P&Os current direction of travel, or target market, but these ships can command hefty price premiums as they offer an adult only environment and tend to have far more interesting itineraries than the repetitive and limited schedules of the larger ships. They also cater for large numbers of passengers who would move to other lines, rather than move to bigger ships with P&O. I don’t think that P&O would replace them when they go, but for as long as the ships can keep going making a profit that exceeds their resale value, I feel that they have a future. 

[zap99]

44 minutes ago, Cynthia Darch said:

Having travelled many times on both since launch, things are looking bleak for both these ships. I have to say I always had a preference for Arcadia but oh she has gone downhill so much, but Aurora is older so which one is going first and when do you think.

I note that you have moved to Saga as P&O has moved so far down market. I wonder why you are interested in Aurora and Arcadia. Saga's immediate future in far from ' unbleak '.

[molecrochip]

Both ships are due dry docks across the next 18 months. Aside from the usual engineering works, P&O have already announced significant investment on the hotel side, so rooms, lounges, passenger facilities etc. in monetary terms even if not the detail.

 

This is on top of the new furniture delivered this year.

 

Looking ahead, the spend is focused on keeping the ships with P&O until they are 30+. Due to the pandemic, we can expect the ships to hang around longer than maybe they previously wood have.

 

Please also bear in mind that Arcadia is only 3 years older than Ventura, and no one is writing her off yet!

 

Finally, my overarching caveat, ANY ship could be sold at ANY time if someone offered the right price.

[gsmt47471015]

39 minutes ago, Selbourne said:

All ships have a limited lifespan and these two ships are no different, but I don’t accept the premise that the future is bleak for them. Admittedly, they don’t really fit with P&Os current direction of travel, or target market, but these ships can command hefty price premiums as they offer an adult only environment and tend to have far more interesting itineraries than the repetitive and limited schedules of the larger ships. They also cater for large numbers of passengers who would move to other lines, rather than move to bigger ships with P&O. I don’t think that P&O would replace them when they go, but for as long as the ships can keep going making a profit that exceeds their resale value, I feel that they have a future. 

We spent 65 nights on Aurora in January and so long as she is still in the fleet will be doing so again in January 2025 ,the cabins are a little dated ( mostly the bathrooms ) and we are about to spend 99 nights on Arcadia in January, same applies regarding cabins , overall if these two ships can still turn a profit after maintenance and depreciation and unless an offer to good to turn down appears then I suspect these two ships will be around for a good while yet ( personal opinion of course).I do agree with Selbourne that when the time comes for either or both to go they will probably not be replaced   

[Pippa04]

20 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

Please also bear in mind that Arcadia is only 3 years older than Ventura, and no one is writing her off yet!

 

Now that did surprise me! I always think of Ventura as being "new generation"

[molecrochip]

7 minutes ago, Pippa04 said:

Now that did surprise me! I always think of Ventura as being "new generation"

Ventura is a grand class ship. Grand Princess, the first, debuted in 1998! 2 years before Aurora and 7 years before Arcadia.

[pete14]

31 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

Both ships are due dry docks across the next 18 months. Aside from the usual engineering works, P&O have already announced significant investment on the hotel side, so rooms, lounges, passenger facilities etc. in monetary terms even if not the detail.

 

This is on top of the new furniture delivered this year.

 

Looking ahead, the spend is focused on keeping the ships with P&O until they are 30+. Due to the pandemic, we can expect the ships to hang around longer than maybe they previously wood have.

 

Please also bear in mind that Arcadia is only 3 years older than Ventura, and no one is writing her off yet!

 

Finally, my overarching caveat, ANY ship could be sold at ANY time if someone offered the right price.

But let us not let the facts as you have so helpfully provided get in the way of another ‘scare story’ based on no evidence apart from their age. Aurora last month was excellent, comfortable and a pleasure to sail on.

[jh1809]

I suspect that P&O would be reluctant to give up on an annual round-the-world cruise, and I believe that Aurora and Arcadia are their only ships small enough to go through the Panama Canal. Yes, a RTW could go via Cape Horn instead, but it would add substantially to the length of the cruise, and also I imagine that some potential passengers would be reluctant to brave the Cape, with its reputation for storms.

[molecrochip]

7 minutes ago, jh1809 said:

I suspect that P&O would be reluctant to give up on an annual round-the-world cruise, and I believe that Aurora and Arcadia are their only ships small enough to go through the Panama Canal. Yes, a RTW could go via Cape Horn instead, but it would add substantially to the length of the cruise, and also I imagine that some potential passengers would be reluctant to brave the Cape, with its reputation for storms.

Grand class can transit the Panama Canal including Azura/Ventura.

[Gettingwarmer]

17 minutes ago, jh1809 said:

I suspect that P&O would be reluctant to give up on an annual round-the-world cruise, and I believe that Aurora and Arcadia are their only ships small enough to go through the Panama Canal. Yes, a RTW could go via Cape Horn instead, but it would add substantially to the length of the cruise, and also I imagine that some potential passengers would be reluctant to brave the Cape, with its reputation for storms.

The larger ships can go through the new Panama Canal locks. 

[daiB]

2 hours ago, molecrochip said:

Ventura is a grand class ship. Grand Princess, the first, debuted in 1998! 2 years before Aurora and 7 years before Arcadia.

I was going to say that. 🙂

[jaydee6969]

2 hours ago, molecrochip said:

Grand class can transit the Panama Canal including Azura/Ventura.

 

After sailing on Arcadia for the first time this year, not a ship for us and has put us off booking a world cruise on her or Aurora.

 

But on Azura/Ventura would be a different prospect.

[Cathygh]

13 hours ago, jaydee6969 said:

 

After sailing on Arcadia for the first time this year, not a ship for us and has put us off booking a world cruise on her or Aurora.

 

But on Azura/Ventura would be a different prospect.

What put me off Arcadia was the cruise cough I had for 3 weeks when on board(August) which disappeared when I was in the fresh air. I have done 12 cruises since the restart, including one last month, and I only had the problem on Arcadia. 

 

If I were to bet on any ship beeing sold off I would chose Ventura or Azura. If P&O can't fill their ships to the level required for a good profit cutting capacity by 3000 might make a difference, and give them a cash injection

[Fionboard]

I have been on Aurora 3 times this year and boarding Arcadia today for the third time this year. Love both ships (despite the cost) and hope they are around for some time yet. If one were to go, I think Ventura would make a good adults only replacement. 

[tring]

20 minutes ago, Fionboard said:

I have been on Aurora 3 times this year and boarding Arcadia today for the third time this year. Love both ships (despite the cost) and hope they are around for some time yet. If one were to go, I think Ventura would make a good adults only replacement. 

 

Molecrochip has mentioned on the past that once Aurora and Arcadia go, there will be no need for an adult only ship.  Obviously that does not fit in with their new target market at all.

 

Longer cruises will always tend to have that group of passengers onboard though, as people of working age are less likely to do them.

 

 

Edited December 21, 2023 by tring

[Fionboard]

1 hour ago, tring said:

 

Molecrochip has mentioned on the past that once Aurora and Arcadia go, there will be no need for an adult only ship.  Obviously that does not fit in with their new target market at all.

 

Longer cruises will always tend to have that group of passengers onboard though, as people of working age are less likely to do them.

 

 

Think there will always be a demand for adults only cruises. Not all pax on the two small ships are elderly and they are very popular. Virgin, I believe, are adults only and they are aimed at the younger "party" crowd. Not for me obviously! 

[twotravellersLondon]

2 hours ago, tring said:

Molecrochip has mentioned on the past that once Aurora and Arcadia go, there will be no need for an adult only ship.  Obviously that does not fit in with their new target market at all.

 

We think it's a bit of a misconception that P&O target a more mature group when in fact the company really does cater for all ages. Certain cruises on certain ships may give the impression that the P&O age group is about 75 but in reality the average age of a P&O cruiser is 42.

 

And in addition... P&O Cruises' new December 2023 "Holiday Like Never Before" campaign, inviting holidaymakers to rethink what they believe they know of a cruise experience indicates very clearly whom their target audience is... they are people like those in the video... scaling mountains, seriously trail-biking and kayaking... these are the people who will buy a cruise, pay top-dollar for exciting adventurous excursions and live life to the full regardless of the additional cost... that's the market that P&O would like.

 

The world has changed... the impact of the pandemic on the psyche, the cost of living, the rise in interest rates, global uncertainty and the reluctance of a great many people to commit themselves in advance to an extended period away from home, their families, their friends, their support groups and their clinicians... just some of the factors. A year ago we booked a very long cruise... we wouldn't do that now.

 

The result of changing attitudes is that the industry estimates are that in the foreseeable future the UK cruise industry will plateaux out at the same levels of revenue as was achieved in 2019... there will be no growth... not even to cover the effects of inflation.

 

The cruise demographics have seen a marked change... pre-covid there was a tendancy to believe that cruising was for the golden oldies with copper bottomed, cast iron inflation-proof pensions to older generous annuities but future estimates show that the 20-30 year olds are more likely to dominate the cruise market. In fact we've seen one study that shows that 10% of 55s and over, who have cruised, will not cruise again. Even way back in 2018 Paul Ludlow commented on the age range of passengers and mentioned how, on an Azura cruise earlier that year, 73 per cent of guests were under 55.

 

Another interesting fact is that the people are cruising for a shorter length of time... average now of only 9-10 days. And many of these people do so as "digital nomads"... there is very little difference between "working from home" and "working from a cruise ship"... I did it seamlessly for five years... although I always made sure that I was available for Board meetings.

 

Aurora and Arcadia are market dependent... if their cruises sell at a price that will allow P&O to break even and make a profit... there is no need to remove them from the fleet. If their market diminishes... it may well be another story. The question are these ship losing passengers to other lines and are they attracting new passengers as those folk mature into a more relaxed lifestyle?

Edited December 21, 2023 by twotravellersLondon

[david63]

3 hours ago, Cathygh said:

If I were to bet on any ship beeing sold off I would chose Ventura or Azura. If P&O can't fill their ships to the level required for a good profit cutting capacity by 3000 might make a difference, and give them a cash injection

Not sure that is true. The bigger the ship the lower the capacity required to break even on a cruise.

[Selbourne]

53 minutes ago, twotravellersLondon said:

 

We think it's a bit of a misconception that P&O target a more mature group when in fact the company really does cater for all ages. Certain cruises on certain ships may give the impression that the P&O age group is about 75 but in reality the average age of a P&O cruiser is 42.

 

And in addition... P&O Cruises' new December 2023 "Holiday Like Never Before" campaign, inviting holidaymakers to rethink what they believe they know of a cruise experience indicates very clearly whom their target audience is... they are people like those in the video... scaling mountains, seriously trail-biking and kayaking... these are the people who will buy a cruise, pay top-dollar for exciting adventurous excursions and live life to the full regardless of the additional cost... that's the market that P&O would like.

 

The world has changed... the impact of the pandemic on the psyche, the cost of living, the rise in interest rates, global uncertainty and the reluctance of a great many people to commit themselves in advance to an extended period away from home, their families, their friends, their support groups and their clinicians... just some of the factors. A year ago we booked a very long cruise... we wouldn't do that now.

 

The result of changing attitudes is that the industry estimates are that in the foreseeable future the UK cruise industry will plateaux out at the same levels of revenue as was achieved in 2019... there will be no growth... not even to cover the effects of inflation.

 

The cruise demographics have seen a marked change... pre-covid there was a tendancy to believe that cruising was for the golden oldies with copper bottomed, cast iron inflation-proof pensions to older generous annuities but future estimates show that the 20-30 year olds are more likely to dominate the cruise market. In fact we've seen one study that shows that 10% of 55s and over, who have cruised, will not cruise again. Even way back in 2018 Paul Ludlow commented on the age range of passengers and mentioned how, on an Azura cruise earlier that year, 73 per cent of guests were under 55.

 

Another interesting fact is that the people are cruising for a shorter length of time... average now of only 9-10 days. And many of these people do so as "digital nomads"... there is very little difference between "working from home" and "working from a cruise ship"... I did it seamlessly for five years... although I always made sure that I was available for Board meetings.

 

Aurora and Arcadia are market dependent... if their cruises sell at a price that will allow P&O to break even and make a profit... there is no need to remove them from the fleet. If their market diminishes... it may well be another story. The question are these ship losing passengers to other lines and are they attracting new passengers as those folk mature into a more relaxed lifestyle?

You are quite right that P&O don’t target mature cruisers any more, but isn’t the issue more about the fact that Aurora and Arcadia don’t appeal to the target market that you so accurately describe, whereas Iona and Arvia don’t appear to a lot of the older traditional cruisers? Generalisations, I know, and there are plenty of exceptions (including some forum members) both ways, but more accurate than not overall I suspect. 
 

Whilst the average age of P&O cruisers may well be 42, that isn’t universal across all ships. In fact it varies enormously. We’ve done quite a few cruises on Aurora where the average age has been around 75, whereas we’ve been on many cruises on the larger ships where the average age has been 30 years lower. These aren’t my guesstimations, but facts quoted by the Captains in the welcome addresses. 
 

The new generation of cruisers want all the bells and whistles that the new ships have (entertainment, dining choices etc etc) and would find Aurora and Arcadia to be severely lacking in that regard. Equally, many of those who have been on countless cruises will find the very limited and repetitive itineraries of the behemoths to be unappealing and will prefer the more port intensive (and smaller ports) itineraries that Aurora and Arcadia do. Very different markets but obviously the latter is a declining market whereas the former is expanding, hence P&Os market re-positioning. As you say, interesting times ahead. 

[twotravellersLondon]

28 minutes ago, Selbourne said:

You are quite right that P&O don’t target mature cruisers any more, but isn’t the issue more about the fact that Aurora and Arcadia don’t appeal to the target market that you so accurately describe, whereas Iona and Arvia don’t appear to a lot of the older traditional cruisers? Generalisations, I know, and there are plenty of exceptions (including some forum members) both ways, but more accurate than not overall I suspect. 
 

Whilst the average age of P&O cruisers may well be 42, that isn’t universal across all ships. In fact it varies enormously. We’ve done quite a few cruises on Aurora where the average age has been around 75, whereas we’ve been on many cruises on the larger ships where the average age has been 30 years lower. These aren’t my guesstimations, but facts quoted by the Captains in the welcome addresses. 
 

The new generation of cruisers want all the bells and whistles that the new ships have (entertainment, dining choices etc etc) and would find Aurora and Arcadia to be severely lacking in that regard. Equally, many of those who have been on countless cruises will find the very limited and repetitive itineraries of the behemoths to be unappealing and will prefer the more port intensive (and smaller ports) itineraries that Aurora and Arcadia do. Very different markets but obviously the latter is a declining market whereas the former is expanding, hence P&Os market re-positioning. As you say, interesting times ahead. 

 

 

We think that your analysis is bang to rights and P&O really do have two quite different offers.

 

We think back to the days of Trust House Forte... before it was taken over by Grenada and remember that Rocco and his family recognised that they has some very divergent hotels in the company and decided to capitalise on in by placing these is "different groups."

 

Perhaps, just perhaps, there is a place for these ships to be marketed as something like... "P&O Heritage."

[yorkshirephil]

1 minute ago, twotravellersLondon said:

 

 

Perhaps, just perhaps, there is a place for these ships to be marketed as something like... "P&O Heritage."

Might not be a bad idea, include evening turn down, choccies on pillows, ballroom dancing etc, bring back some of the things that people enjoyed that have gone, there are enough posters here that have said they would pay extra for those things. Even if they trialled something like that for a few cruises. 

There are lots of heritage sports and pastimes that do well, we all like a bit of nostalgia sometimes.

[david63]

8 minutes ago, twotravellersLondon said:

Perhaps, just perhaps, there is a place for these ships to be marketed as something like... "P&O Heritage."

I doubt that will happen. My view would be that should either, or both, Arcadia or Aurora leave P&O's fleet then it is more likely that P&O passengers would either gyrate of their own accord or be encouraged/enticed over to Cunard leaving P&O as the "cheap and cheerful" cruise line.