New Vessel ordered for the Carnival Group with Fincantieri.

[longhorn2004]

On 1/16/2024 at 3:38 PM, Nathan Graveson said:

Hi all,

 

I want to cover a few things I have been thinking about after I found out about this news the other day...

I must say, these are my personal opinions, I do have mixed feelings when it comes to Carnival Corp, both in good and bad ways, but that's besides the point.

 

Now, firstly, the shipyard... It must be said that Fincantieri are not a BAD shipyard by any means, however, they lack the experience of building larger, 200,000+ gross ton vessels, something only 2 shipyards in the world have mastered, that being Chantiers De L'Atlantique (Oasis-Class and World-Class) in St. Nazaire, France and Meyer Turku (First 2 Oasis-Class vessels, Excel-Class & Icon-Class) in Turku, Finland. This means that Fincantieri simply do not have either the space/facilities to construct them over that size, or they like to overcomplicate the designs, making it difficult to construct anyways.

 

Then, we have to look back at the failed Pinnacle-Project of the 2000s. A project as ambitious as ever, but was lost to the financial issues facing the Euro currency trade. From what I have though about, we could very well see a new design inspired by that project, with the large promenade deck that wraps around the whole ship above the lifeboat deck, to the top-deck attractions - which it must be said a new, longer version of Bolt would be installed. Also, talking of the Pinnacle-Project, we need to cover size... cause it matters.

 

208,000 gross tons is what is being reported here. That so happens to be the exact same tonnage of the new Disney Adventure (formerly Global Dream), but no, its not a coincidence. Also mentioned in one of the articles is that this new ship class will be based on Princess Cruises new Prototype ships, the Sphere-Class, which is 180,000 gross tons. What we can expect from this ship is for it to carry much of the same hull design - only enlarged and modified to meet the demands of the increase in tonnage on the main superstructure. No, there won't be a large sphere in the middle, however we can expect a large ocean-view window on each side of the superstructure.

 

Then the competition. Icon of the Seas, is the comparison most people are making, but remember, Royal can do anything and do it well, Carnival can't. Royal could build a 300,000 gross ton vessel any day and it wouldn't even shock us cause they know how to perfect a product, again, Carnival just can't. If Carnival really want to shock the industry, they are gonna have to really push themselves to be bold and different cause the Excel-Class played it safe, nearly identical across the four brands that got them, only few changes. So whatever this new ship class is, it better be different and unique, or else Carnival will fall flat on their faces and Royal will coast on with the majority Market Share....

Isn't the Sun Princess a version of the XL class? So what you are stating ( and I kind of agree) expect a larger XL class type of ship. 

 

Eventually the smaller ports are going to need a new class of ship. Spirit Class, Conquest and Sunshine classes cannot sell forever, though paid for. Carnival cannot send the Dream to Tampa, Baltimore, or Mobile.

[bg2310]

Per https://www.seatrade-cruise.com/shipbuilding-refurb-equipment/carnival-signals-cruise-newbuild-orders-cards-probable-2027-delivery it's kind of almost all but confirmed, just a matter of finalizing the deal:

 

A Carnival Corp. spokesperson told Seatrade Cruise News: 'While we don’t comment on speculation, [CEO] Josh Weinstein has said publicly that we are talking with shipyards and he would be surprised if we haven't ordered a ship in the next six months. We expect to order newbuilds for delivery — probably beginning in 2027 — at a rate of one to two per year.'

[notscb]

On 1/16/2024 at 4:38 PM, Nathan Graveson said:

because they know how to perfect a product. Carnival just can't.

Disagree. It's just a different product.

 

I appreciate you sharing your speculations, but 75% of Royal's brand is marketing, 25% is onboard experience as evidenced by all of those "loyal to royal" folks who would never check out the Celebration, Jubilee or Mardi Gras which are all getting rave reviews.

 

Marketing might be Royal's strong suit, but discounting Carnival's product when their new ships are getting the reviews that they are is missing something.

Edited January 18 by notscb

[slavens_09]

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2927801-carnival’s-next-class-of-ship/#comment-65120215

 

I figured this was going to happen. But it’s even earlier than I thought.

[tidecat]

5 hours ago, longhorn2004 said:

Isn't the Sun Princess a version of the XL class? So what you are stating ( and I kind of agree) expect a larger XL class type of ship. 

 

Eventually the smaller ports are going to need a new class of ship. Spirit Class, Conquest and Sunshine classes cannot sell forever, though paid for. Carnival cannot send the Dream to Tampa, Baltimore, or Mobile.

Sun Princess is actually based on Fincatieri's Project Mille, which has been the common starting point for Virgin Voyages, MSC's Seaside class, and Norwegian's Leonardo class (Prima, Viva, etc.). You could argue that Carnival's canceled Pinnacle project is actually part of this as well, given the emphasis on the exterior promenade. 

 

The XL class was built by Meyer Turku and Meyer Werft.

 

The similarities in design are obvious between the two, but I'm not sure how similar they are in terms of engines, propulsion, and hotel mechanical systems. For some things they are likely using the same suppliers anyway. One thing that is definitely different on Sun Princess and Star Princess is the design of the theater - it can be a proscenium, keyhole, or theater in the round. There are some major layout changes from the Meyer builds that were made to accommodate that, although most of that won't be visible to passengers.

 

I agree with you on the smaller ships, although that is likely to be the next series after this one. The remaining Fantasy/Spirit class vessels will be pushed to 32-35 years old. Mobile can likely handle the Conquest class as far out as 2040. Norfolk should be able to step up with Charleston gone, and would likely support even more volume with Baltimore gone. If Carnival Cruise Line goes "fun-sized" again, it is about saving the relationship with Baltimore, Jacksonville, and Tampa. Keep in mind Luminosa (built 2009) could very well be in service until 2044, which may keep one of those three ports in the game for a while. Given how much younger AIDA's fleet is, Carnival Cruise Line I could see AIDA getting a "XXL" around 2030 but giving up two Sphinx class as replacements for Elation and Paradise.

[ProgRockCruiser]

On 1/16/2024 at 11:01 AM, Joebucks said:

I have never been on a more crowded ship than the Vista class. 

Interesting - I've heard that from a few posters.  We sailed on Vista in early Dec (2023) and I continuously commented to my wife that there did not seem to be crowds anywhere of any significance.  Yeah, there were line-ups for the comedy shows, but you could still slip in a few minutes before and get a spot and the side/back.  And occasionally "everyone" would decide they wanted a Guys Burger, so the line-up got big, but go back 30 min later and it was back to normal.  And sometimes we couldn't get seats at the bar at Alchemy, so we had to sit in the second row seating.

 

The captain did comment that they were sailing below max capacity, can't remember the exact figure but I wanna say about 80% to 85% (so probably 100% to 105% of double occupancy).

 

Shrug.

[longhorn2004]

14 hours ago, tidecat said:

Sun Princess is actually based on Fincatieri's Project Mille, which has been the common starting point for Virgin Voyages, MSC's Seaside class, and Norwegian's Leonardo class (Prima, Viva, etc.). You could argue that Carnival's canceled Pinnacle project is actually part of this as well, given the emphasis on the exterior promenade. 

 

The XL class was built by Meyer Turku and Meyer Werft.

 

The similarities in design are obvious between the two, but I'm not sure how similar they are in terms of engines, propulsion, and hotel mechanical systems. For some things they are likely using the same suppliers anyway. One thing that is definitely different on Sun Princess and Star Princess is the design of the theater - it can be a proscenium, keyhole, or theater in the round. There are some major layout changes from the Meyer builds that were made to accommodate that, although most of that won't be visible to passengers.

 

I agree with you on the smaller ships, although that is likely to be the next series after this one. The remaining Fantasy/Spirit class vessels will be pushed to 32-35 years old. Mobile can likely handle the Conquest class as far out as 2040. Norfolk should be able to step up with Charleston gone, and would likely support even more volume with Baltimore gone. If Carnival Cruise Line goes "fun-sized" again, it is about saving the relationship with Baltimore, Jacksonville, and Tampa. Keep in mind Luminosa (built 2009) could very well be in service until 2044, which may keep one of those three ports in the game for a while. Given how much younger AIDA's fleet is, Carnival Cruise Line I could see AIDA getting a "XXL" around 2030 but giving up two Sphinx class as replacements for Elation and Paradise.

So while other brands upgauge, the ships that are being replaced at other brands will migrate over to Carnival because they are newer and can replace ships approaching 30 years of age.

[BlerkOne]

20 hours ago, tidecat said:

Sun Princess is actually based on Fincatieri's Project Mille, which has been the common starting point for Virgin Voyages, MSC's Seaside class, and Norwegian's Leonardo class (Prima, Viva, etc.).

 

 

Sun Princess uses LNG, I don't believe any of the others do.

[dolphinsfan246]

[vwrestler171]

Carnival needs to take notes from Royal Caribbean on how to design ships. There is no reason that Mardi Gras should have the same mount of people as the Oasis class, despite being 25-30% smaller. 

[vwrestler171]

On 1/19/2024 at 7:22 AM, ProgRockCruiser said:

Interesting - I've heard that from a few posters.  We sailed on Vista in early Dec (2023) and I continuously commented to my wife that there did not seem to be crowds anywhere of any significance.  Yeah, there were line-ups for the comedy shows, but you could still slip in a few minutes before and get a spot and the side/back.  And occasionally "everyone" would decide they wanted a Guys Burger, so the line-up got big, but go back 30 min later and it was back to normal.  And sometimes we couldn't get seats at the bar at Alchemy, so we had to sit in the second row seating.

 

The captain did comment that they were sailing below max capacity, can't remember the exact figure but I wanna say about 80% to 85% (so probably 100% to 105% of double occupancy).

 

Shrug.

I agree, I've never felt crowded on the Vista class.  I was on the Mardi Gras while sailings were capped at around 60% and I will not do that class of ship again.  Even at 60%, the piano bar was over full, the comedy club was always out of room and the line for pizza stretched down to guest services.  

[BlerkOne]

1 hour ago, vwrestler171 said:

Carnival needs to take notes from Royal Caribbean on how to design ships. There is no reason that Mardi Gras should have the same mount of people as the Oasis class, despite being 25-30% smaller. 

The myth of gross tonnage.

[tidecat]

14 hours ago, vwrestler171 said:

Carnival needs to take notes from Royal Caribbean on how to design ships. There is no reason that Mardi Gras should have the same mount of people as the Oasis class, despite being 25-30% smaller. 

There's actually a very good reason: cost per lower berth. Carnival wants to beat Royal on price. They can't do that by building a significantly more expensive ship.

 

If the $1.6 billion figure being tossed about in the media is accurate for the new ship, that is a significant increase from the Excel class ($950 million) for what would only about a 10% increase in passenger capacity. But it would still be cheaper than Royal's Icon class.

[dolphinsfan246]

54 minutes ago, tidecat said:

There's actually a very good reason: cost per lower berth. Carnival wants to beat Royal on price. They can't do that by building a significantly more expensive ship.

 

If the $1.6 billion figure being tossed about in the media is accurate for the new ship, that is a significant increase from the Excel class ($950 million) for what would only about a 10% increase in passenger capacity. But it would still be cheaper than Royal's Icon class.

This 100%. Which is why it’s hard to believe the 1.6 billion price tag right now. Seems awfully high for Carnival, however given the current rate of inflation I guess it’s possible it would cost that by 2028/29. Carnival makes their living beating everyone on price. There’s a huge demographic that will do without the quirky new features of Icon if it means it will save them a couple grand. 

Edited January 22 by dolphinsfan246
Spelling

[vwrestler171]

18 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

The myth of gross tonnage.

 

What do you mean by that?

 

5 hours ago, tidecat said:

There's actually a very good reason: cost per lower berth. Carnival wants to beat Royal on price. They can't do that by building a significantly more expensive ship.

 

If the $1.6 billion figure being tossed about in the media is accurate for the new ship, that is a significant increase from the Excel class ($950 million) for what would only about a 10% increase in passenger capacity. But it would still be cheaper than Royal's Icon class.

 

Exactly, just cram more people into less space.

[stobe1]

Royal Caribbean has said that their next class of ships will be about the size of Voyager or Liberty Class. So they are going back to the drawing board with medium-sized ships now. Carnival seems to be about a decade behind Royal as of late in trying to compete with ship size so maybe the trend will shift more toward smaller ships rather than continuing to continually attempting to one up their previous builds.

Edited January 22 by stobe1

[BlerkOne]

6 hours ago, vwrestler171 said:

 

What do you mean by that?

 

 

 

It is a measure of volume, not area. 100 foot ceilings increase gross tonnage but not an inch more room for passengers.

[Captain Carnival]

What’s needed is for a new moderate sized vessel such as a Fantasy/Spirit hybrid that can replace and succeed the remaining ships that can sail into Tampa and JaxPort.

[787cruiser]

I for one am surprised. I would have placed a large bet on Carnival not going bigger in their next order. I was expecting a larger order of "smaller ships" to replaced the aging fantasy, sunshine and spirits rather than a smaller order of "Mega" cruise ships. I would also have guessed a few ships in the 150-160,000GT area. Certainly not 200,000GT+

[CarnivalShips480]

Carnival doesn't need to replace the Fantasy, Spirit and Sunshine class yet. They still have years left in them, some way more than others of course.

[Old Fart Cruisers]

15 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

It is a measure of volume, not area. 100 foot ceilings increase gross tonnage but not an inch more room for passengers.

Gross tonnage is calculated based on "the moulded volume of all enclosed spaces of the ship"

 

I have a question about this, that I have tried searching and can't find the answer.  Maybe one of the experts on this site can help with.  Is an area with nothing above it still considered enclosed, or could it be considered an open deck area?  I'm thinking about areas such as Central Park on RCI Oasis class ships which are fully enclosed on all sides, but not enclosed above.  Would those ships be considered even 'bigger' if there was a roof over these areas?

 

[787cruiser]

1 hour ago, CarnivalShips480 said:

Carnival doesn't need to replace the Fantasy, Spirit and Sunshine class yet. They still have years left in them, some way more than others of course.

 

Spirit maybe not yet but fantasy and sunshine are approaching 30 yr mark and by the time these new vessels come online they will be up for retirement (at least from Carnival corp). For a leading cruise line a 30year old ship is OLD.

[chengkp75]

26 minutes ago, Old Fart Cruisers said:

Gross tonnage is calculated based on "the moulded volume of all enclosed spaces of the ship"

 

I have a question about this, that I have tried searching and can't find the answer.  Maybe one of the experts on this site can help with.  Is an area with nothing above it still considered enclosed, or could it be considered an open deck area?  I'm thinking about areas such as Central Park on RCI Oasis class ships which are fully enclosed on all sides, but not enclosed above.  Would those ships be considered even 'bigger' if there was a roof over these areas?

 

No, a space with no roof is not considered "enclosed" for purposes of Gross Tonnage calculation.  If there was a roof, and the aft end was enclosed up to that roof, then, yes, the GT would be greater.

[mz-s]

6 hours ago, Captain Carnival said:

What’s needed is for a new moderate sized vessel such as a Fantasy/Spirit hybrid that can replace and succeed the remaining ships that can sail into Tampa and JaxPort.

 

Will never happen with the mass market lines - if those cities want a cruising future with a mass market line, they'll have to build taller bridges, a tunnel, or move the cruise port outside of the bridge path.

[Joebucks]

1 hour ago, CarnivalShips480 said:

Carnival doesn't need to replace the Fantasy, Spirit and Sunshine class yet. They still have years left in them, some way more than others of course.

 

When you compare what the going rate is for the newest ships vs the oldest, there's a reason a lot of the Fantasy class has already been retired. However, the more important priority is not maximizing those markets, as much as it is maximizing the business as a whole. 

 

23 hours ago, vwrestler171 said:

 

What do you mean by that?

 

As others have already commented, it is a calculation of "internal space." Where a high ceiling, unused space, or 5 more sq ft in a room is "proven to be a more spacious and better experience."

 

You can have 5 different ship designs, all with the same "gross tonnage," and have 5 different experiences.