Stock Market and Cruise Cost Plunge?

[lovey1103]

Anyone out there have a sense if prices will drop due to the instability of the US stock market?

Unfortunately plenty of investors are pulling back and thinking twice about their spending habits.

Any comments or sense how this may affect travel?

Edited December 18, 2018 by lovey1103
spelling

[Jeremiah On a Cruise]

I kinda doubt it.

 

The world is flush with cash right now and the economy looks pretty strong.  I'm not seeing the recent pullback having much effect on spending, even discretionary spending like cruises.

[leaveitallbehind]

Highly unlikely IMO.  Prices are dictated by supply and demand and until that changes dramatically in the long term the prices won't change, other than with the normal up and down movement on a given ship and itinerary based on booking patterns.

Edited December 18, 2018 by leaveitallbehind

[The_Big_M]

No. They don't price based on the share price. They price based on bookings.

 

Now there's a certain correlation that as the overall market falls, confidence dries up and so do bookings. But we're a long way off that.

[4774Papa]

The vast majority of Celebrity cruisers are likely retirees.   I have no documentary proof of that, just from my observations from 10 cruises with X.

I suspect that most retirees, like myself have already moved away from risky investments.  Still, it is possible that some cruisers will be affected enough to curtail their spending on cruises.

I do think the FED moving up interest rates will affect the real estate market, but most retirees are probably not looking for new homes or mortgages.

[Stateroom_Sailor]

Does a 100 shares of RCL stock do anything for you on a reposition cruises these days?  That and Carnival stock, hoping to buy at the bottom, though I doubt I'll see $6 like It crashed to in 2009.

[Cruise Junky]

I thought it was interesting to get emails yesterday that Edge was still available for Christmas and New Years. And the fact that Celebrity were advertising it. Not as strongly booked as perhaps led to believe. 

 

Seems like Ike so much of the corporate tax cuts went to buying their own stock back rather than trickle down which also props up market activity. Will be interesting to see where the market is in six months after all the chips fall. It definitely could be bumpy, doesn’t take much to spook investors. 

[jelayne]

2 hours ago, Cruise Junky said:

I thought it was interesting to get emails yesterday that Edge was still available for Christmas and New Years. And the fact that Celebrity were advertising it. Not as strongly booked as perhaps led to believe. 

 

We are booked on the 1/13 sailing which before final payment all suites were sold out. After final payment there were 54 open suites.  Now with under 30 days until sailing there are still about 45 Suites open.  IMHO Celebrity clearly overpriced the Suites and so far no significant price reduction has occurred. 

 

With the high prices and mixed reviews I anticipate that future Edge sailing will see prices drop or will not sail full.   We booked on day 1 and so got a reasonable price but there is no way I would pay the $8k they are asking for a A2 on a 7 day cruise.

[A Sixth?]

4 hours ago, Stateroom_Sailor said:

Does a 100 shares of RCL stock do anything for you on a reposition cruises these days?  That and Carnival stock, hoping to buy at the bottom, though I doubt I'll see $6 like It crashed to in 2009.

 

Yes. I always get some OBC thanks to my 100 shares(wish I'd bought more... think I paid something like $11.00) on Trans Atlantic and odd-ball ones that X doesn't give me anything. 

[Turtles06]

4 hours ago, Stateroom_Sailor said:

Does a 100 shares of RCL stock do anything for you on a reposition cruises these days?  

 

Yes, we received the shareholder's credit on our recent Silhouette TA. It's about the only sort of cruise without some "free" perk that makes the SH credit unavailable. 

[Stateroom_Sailor]

36 minutes ago, Turtles06 said:

 

Yes, we received the shareholder's credit on our recent Silhouette TA. It's about the only sort of cruise without some "free" perk that makes the SH credit unavailable. 

 

Thanks.  We'll likely be doing Reposition / Transatlantic cruises more than half the time, so the perk will come in handy.

[Baron Barracuda]

15 hours ago, lovey1103 said:

Anyone out there have a sense if prices will drop due to the instability of the US stock market?

Unfortunately plenty of investors are pulling back and thinking twice about their spending habits.

Any comments or sense how this may affect travel?

Despite recent volatility stock market is only down a coupe % for the year.  Unemployment is low and consumer confidence high.  No reason for anyone to change travel plans.  Barring another great recession, believe travel industry is more interested in price of oil which is down almost 20% YTD.  Doubt you'll see any of that savings passed on to customers though.

[jsf]

With the way the market has been dropping lately (All 2018 gains gone) I have to gauge the long term outlook  as I look to cruising. We have a 10 day cruise planned for April but after that I'll have to think hard about vacations and the costs now that I'm retired.

Edited December 18, 2018 by jsf
spell

[davekathy]

My Magic 8 Ball says, "very doubtful". 

[leaveitallbehind]

1 hour ago, davekathy said:

My Magic 8 Ball says, "very doubtful". 

 

Love the 8 ball!  Very resourceful tool.

[Stateroom_Sailor]

3 hours ago, Baron Barracuda said:

Despite recent volatility stock market is only down a coupe % for the year.  Unemployment is low and consumer confidence high.  No reason for anyone to change travel plans.  Barring another great recession, believe travel industry is more interested in price of oil which is down almost 20% YTD.  Doubt you'll see any of that savings passed on to customers though.

 

I'm no stock expert, but here's a graph of Mainstreet vs Wallstreet, they're not always in sync.  If we can have a jobless recovery, I imagine the inverse could happen as well.

 

 

[Lastdance]

6 hours ago, jelayne said:

 

We are booked on the 1/13 sailing which before final payment all suites were sold out. After final payment there were 54 open suites.  Now with under 30 days until sailing there are still about 45 Suites open.  IMHO Celebrity clearly overpriced the Suites and so far no significant price reduction has occurred. 

 

With the high prices and mixed reviews I anticipate that future Edge sailing will see prices drop or will not sail full.   We booked on day 1 and so got a reasonable price but there is no way I would pay the $8k they are asking for a A2 on a 7 day cruise.

 

I am with you on that for sure.  I booked the first hour for the TA, so I will go on it to see it for myself, but prices are sky high and reviews are questionable at best...I llove suites, but prices are rediculous...

Edited December 18, 2018 by Lastdance

[Baron Barracuda]

8 minutes ago, Stateroom_Sailor said:

 

I'm no stock expert, but here's a graph of Mainstreet vs Wallstreet, they're not always in sync.  If we can have a jobless recovery, I imagine the inverse could happen as well.

 

 

 

Labor participation rate only tracks those employed as % of total population.  Doesn't mean the remainder are looking for jobs.  # is influenced by a number of factors including early-retiring baby boomers and impact of opiod epidemic.

 

Better indicator is the unemployment rate, which at 3.7% is at lowest level since the 1960's

 

Jobless recovery ???????

[Lastdance]

Do not forget about how the perception of investors affects everything, not to mention our global economy...way too many unknowns...stagnation or more sell-offs?  Corrections...come on down...does not mean I want the market to go down, but times are volitile...

Edited December 18, 2018 by Lastdance

[Cruise Junky]

2 hours ago, Lastdance said:

Do not forget about how the perception of investors affects everything, not to mention our global economy...way too many unknowns...stagnation or more sell-offs?  Corrections...come on down...does not mean I want the market to go down, but times are volitile...

And Brexit. The drop in the pound and the Canadian dollar would also have an affect. It’s not all about the US for cruiselines. 

[OCruisers]

While none of us like to see the market down or want to see it go into a MAJOR correction/recession, we know it could and not recover for a long time.

It will not be a factor in our cruise plans.  

[The_Big_M]

13 hours ago, Baron Barracuda said:

 

Labor participation rate only tracks those employed as % of total population.  Doesn't mean the remainder are looking for jobs.  # is influenced by a number of factors including early-retiring baby boomers and impact of opiod epidemic.

 

Better indicator is the unemployment rate, which at 3.7% is at lowest level since the 1960's

 

Jobless recovery ???????

Unemployment rate only tracks those not looking for work, and also disregards the nature of work, even if it's not what the employee is seeking. Doesn't mean that the person has got the amount of employment e.g. full time they are looking for, or whether they've just given up in despair.

 

With the increase in 'uber' style jobs in the economy that weren't there in the 60s,  people take them as they have to since they can't get a real job. 
But this isn't reflected in the stats, but doesn't mean that they're comfortably off, or have stable employment, all preconditions to a satisfyling quality of life.. and buying cruises.

[oneputt18]

23 hours ago, Cruise Junky said:

I thought it was interesting to get emails yesterday that Edge was still available for Christmas and New Years. And the fact that Celebrity were advertising it. Not as strongly booked as perhaps led to believe. 

 

Seems like Ike so much of the corporate tax cuts went to buying their own stock back rather than trickle down which also props up market activity. Will be interesting to see where the market is in six months after all the chips fall. It definitely could be bumpy, doesn’t take much to spook investors. 

Prices are ridiculous, $5,000 per person for Aqua class on the 7 day New Years Eve cruise.

[bobndee]

On 12/18/2018 at 7:23 AM, 4774Papa said:

The vast majority of Celebrity cruisers are likely retirees.   I have no documentary proof of that, just from my observations from 10 cruises with X.

I suspect that most retirees, like myself have already moved away from risky investments.  Still, it is possible that some cruisers will be affected enough to curtail their spending on cruises.

I do think the FED moving up interest rates will affect the real estate market, but most retirees are probably not looking for new homes or mortgages.

 

We are retirees, too, and have what we think are fairly conservative investments.  We still lost over $50,000 in Oct & Nov BEFORE the most recent drop.  So we canceled a planned river cruise next year for a more modest resort stay.

 

[Baron Barracuda]

6 hours ago, The_Big_M said:

Unemployment rate only tracks those not looking for work, and also disregards the nature of work, even if it's not what the employee is seeking. Doesn't mean that the person has got the amount of employment e.g. full time they are looking for, or whether they've just given up in despair.

 

With the increase in 'uber' style jobs in the economy that weren't there in the 60s,  people take them as they have to since they can't get a real job. 
But this isn't reflected in the stats, but doesn't mean that they're comfortably off, or have stable employment, all preconditions to a satisfyling quality of life.. and buying cruises.

 

The unemployment rate (u3) does not include those not looking for work.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics does track under-employed workers (Uber and other involuntary part-time) in their U6 rate.  This currently stands at 7.4%,  down from over 17% at the start of the recovery.

 

U6 unemployment rate counts not only people without work seeking full-time employment (the more familiar U-3 rate), but also counts "marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons." Note that some of these part-time workers counted as employed by U-3 could be working as little as an hour a week. And the "marginally attached workers" include those who have gotten discouraged and stopped looking, but still want to work.