Iona Construction ?

[Adawn47]

3 minutes ago, wowzz said:

With far better air condition and purification than on a cruise ship.

But, at the end of the day, it is a personal choice, although presently most world governments seem to be taking the same approach as me. (Which in itself is not necessarily a recommendation - just a reflection of perceived risks)

Which it has been throughout this whole pandemic.  Trial and error and personal choice. Thanks for the lively debate wowzz 😉

Avril 

[wowzz]

15 minutes ago, Adawn47 said:

Which it has been throughout this whole pandemic.  Trial and error and personal choice. Thanks for the lively debate wowzz 😉

Avril 

Exactly - there is no 100% answer to any of this.

Off for our first pub lunch next week - hoorah!

[Son of Anarchy]

56 minutes ago, Adawn47 said:

 

You're  assuming again that only airports will be monitoring and using infection prevention measures. So will cruise ships. Flights are leaving again for the continent and as seen on the media not everyone on the flights or in the terminals are using masks, there is also no social distancing whatsoever. Cruise ships and terminals however,  are having to conform to new rules and put more health and hygiene measures in place including masks and social distancing. On a flight you are confined for x number hours. On a ship you can  walk around  easily avoiding people if necessary and spend a lot of time outside. So to answer your question wowzz. I would feel safer on a 14 night cruise.

Avril 

 

Oddly enough, a few days ago we were chatting about what cruises were/might be available and the ole lady said that she would not do a TA because she didn't want to be on the plane for 8 eight hour flight.

[terrierjohn]

1 hour ago, wowzz said:

With far better air condition and purification than on a cruise ship.

But, at the end of the day, it is a personal choice, although presently most world governments seem to be taking the same approach as me. (Which in itself is not necessarily a recommendation - just a reflection of perceived risks)

I always thought that aircon on planes was over 90% recirculated, with less than 10% "fresh" air probably  contaminated with exhaust gases.

[wowzz]

4 minutes ago, terrierjohn said:

I always thought that aircon on planes was over 90% recirculated, with less than 10% "fresh" air probably  contaminated with exhaust gases.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton1/2020/04/22/how-coronavirus-spread-in-one-restaurant-shows-why-air-travel-is-safer-than-you-think/#18a780f19722

 

[terrierjohn]

53 minutes ago, wowzz said:

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton1/2020/04/22/how-coronavirus-spread-in-one-restaurant-shows-why-air-travel-is-safer-than-you-think/#18a780f19722

 

If that were true then presumably all those passenger not sitting in an aisle seat would eventually die of oxygen starvation, which of course might account for why its much easier to fall asleep in a non window seat, or could it just be the blast of cold air you receive from the air vents in a window seat!

Of course any aerospace contributor to a business magazine would be unlikely to be totally unbiased, and is very likely to be selective in the statistics he uses to make his positive case for air travel, but clearly you would know this wowzz.

Edited July 1, 2020 by terrierjohn

[wowzz]

2 minutes ago, terrierjohn said:

If that were true then presumably all those passenger not sitting in an aisle seat would eventually die of oxygen starvation, which of course might account for why its much easier to fall asleep in a non window seat, or could it just be the blast of cold air you receive from the air vents.!

Of course any aerospace contributor to a business magazine would be unlikely to be totally unbiased, and is very likely to be selective in the statistics he uses to make his positive case for air travel, but clearly you would know this wowzz.

John, try this one

https://blueswandaily.com/coronavirus-air-as-pure-as-an-operating-theatre-when-grounded-aircraft-return-to-the-air-airlines-need-to-be-proactive-in-downplaying-the-chances-of-catching-viruses-onboard/

I can send you more links, but you will probably dispute the validity of all of them!

[terrierjohn]

7 minutes ago, wowzz said:

John, try this one

https://blueswandaily.com/coronavirus-air-as-pure-as-an-operating-theatre-when-grounded-aircraft-return-to-the-air-airlines-need-to-be-proactive-in-downplaying-the-chances-of-catching-viruses-onboard/

I can send you more links, but you will probably dispute the validity of all of them!

Quite true wowzz I am such a cynic I have difficulty believing things I write!

But even the title of your latest find raises my suspicions even before I open it.

 

PS You will note that they don't put the "fresh air" through the Hepa filter, cpuld that be because the exhaust fumes might necessitate several in flight changes.

Edited July 1, 2020 by terrierjohn

[wowzz]

1 minute ago, terrierjohn said:

Quite true wowzz I am such a cynic I have difficulty believing things I write!

But even the title of your latest find raises my suspicions even before I open it.

And here's another one

https://www.nytimes.com/wirecutter/blog/can-hepa-air-purifiers-capture-coronavirus/

 

If you read my prior link, you see that airlines have been underplaying the efficiency of the hepa filters, which are far better at scrubbing out the virus than the cheap masks that people wear. The complete opposite of what you are implying. 

 

Why not read it, before commenting.

[terrierjohn]

1 hour ago, wowzz said:

And here's another one

https://www.nytimes.com/wirecutter/blog/can-hepa-air-purifiers-capture-coronavirus/

 

If you read my prior link, you see that airlines have been underplaying the efficiency of the hepa filters, which are far better at scrubbing out the virus than the cheap masks that people wear. The complete opposite of what you are implying. 

 

Why not read it, before commenting.

But wowzz you're as cynical as me on lots of other things, why then so gullible on airline supporting sites?😉

[wowzz]

23 minutes ago, terrierjohn said:

But wowzz you're as cynical as me on lots of other things, why then so gullible on airline supporting sites?😉

True, but the last link was regarding HEPA filters, nothing to do with airlines as such.

[davecttr]

5 hours ago, wowzz said:

The main difference is that if you have 3000 infected people from a cruise ship suddenly descending on a place like Cartagena, the consequences are dramatically different compared to 200 people on an easyJet flight.

maybe inserting 'potentially' before 3000 would be better but I get your point. If we look at the situation last week where an average of 1 in 17 hundred people were infected we could expect a ship like Iona might have approx 3 people infected at the start of the cruise.. A week later that could be 300 or more. Iona is cruising the fjords next summer, maybe, I don't know what the locals will think of 6000 passengers descending on Geiranger or Olden.

[wowzz]

52 minutes ago, davecttr said:

maybe inserting 'potentially' before 3000 would be better

I do love a bit of hyperbole! 

[terrierjohn]

2 hours ago, wowzz said:

True, but the last link was regarding HEPA filters, nothing to do with airlines as such.

Strange but the attached link suggests that normal HVAC systems even with HEPA filters are unlikely to filter out viruses.

But the article does go on to suggest that cruise ship aircon systems are very unlikely to spread any viruses around the ship, however it might of course be a biased report.

 

https://www.swzmaritime.nl/news/2020/02/20/hvac-not-likely-to-play-role-in-coronavirus-spread-on-cruise-ship/?gdpr=accept

Edited July 1, 2020 by terrierjohn

[No pager thank you]

3 hours ago, davecttr said:

If we look at the situation last week where an average of 1 in 17 hundred people were infected we could expect a ship like Iona might have approx 3 people infected at the start of the cruise.. A week later that could be 300 or more. 

I don't think that we could expect this - possibly a little pessimistic?  Just trying to be a bit more positive.  Awaits critique 😉

 

The 1 in 1,700 estimate was inferred from the ONS testing, but it needs to be further broken down to the following:

 

1) People who know that they are infected and show clear signs of infection.  They would be unlikely to attempt to board and a pre screening could pick them up to deny boarding.

2) People who do not know that they are infected because they are pre-symptomatic having been infected in the 14 days prior to cruising.

3) People who do not know they are infected and have incubated prior to embarkation, but are asymptomatic.

 

The risk comes with the latter two groups.  The infected could include ships company as well as passengers.

 

The highest risk comes with the third group who would be infected, wouldn't know about it, and wouldn't present any symptoms which would enable ships company to quarantine them in a timely way and the occupants of their cabin, or move to the medical centre. 

 

What I don't think is well known is the prevalence of people who are in the third category only.  I'm happy to revisit if anyone knows this? 

 

However, it would be fair to say that if the overall ratio is 1:1700 then this sub ratio would be much lower.  So saying 3 on average on Iona??

 

I would also suggest that if the uncontrolled reproduction rate of the virus is broadly 3 with a 5-14 day incubation period, then it's a bit tough to say it would be 100 factor in a week on a cruise ship; particularly if any control factors were at least partially effective. 

 

That said I did hear about 1 becoming 53 in a US choir practice.  Passenger choirs practice will have to go on P&O.

 

More positively, there was some interesting research from Sweden today suggesting that natural immunity may be higher than first thought.

 

As I wrote last night, I don't buy the planes are safer environments argument, but I do think that there is a danger of over-estimating the entry and transmission risk overall. 

 

At some point we need to be able to have the choice over how comfortable we feel to live our lives.  I fully respect everyone who is clear that their view is only when the vaccine arrives and it may well be that public health pushes that, when it comes to cruise ship travel.  But I haven't given up on my Christmas cruise yet.  Give it until September 😉

 

[Addict]

You lot really have gone off on a tangent haven't you.  Please remember this page was set up to follow Iona's Construction and to follow progress up to delivery.  I'm sure there are plenty of other pages for discussions about Coronavirus where you can discuss your theories.

[wowzz]

1 hour ago, Addict said:

You lot really have gone off on a tangent haven't you.  Please remember this page was set up to follow Iona's Construction and to follow progress up to delivery.  I'm sure there are plenty of other pages for discussions about Coronavirus where you can discuss your theories.

Yes , but we all like a  bit  of thread drift.

But, I do agree with you. I won't post again unless it is Iona specific. 

To John, nopager etc - nice to have a debate with no rudeness. I'm happy to fly, but not to cruise. Just my decision.

As a final personal point of view, I am cancelling our villa in Spain in September,  we hopefully will be going to Lanzarote in November, and I will be cancelling our cruise to the US and Caribbean in January on Ventura. 

In the current environment,  I see no benefit in booking too far ahead. 

Final post on this thread.

[brian1]

11 hours ago, No pager thank you said:

I don't think that we could expect this - possibly a little pessimistic?  Just trying to be a bit more positive.  Awaits critique 😉

 

The 1 in 1,700 estimate was inferred from the ONS testing, but it needs to be further broken down to the following:

 

1) People who know that they are infected and show clear signs of infection.  They would be unlikely to attempt to board and a pre screening could pick them up to deny boarding.

2) People who do not know that they are infected because they are pre-symptomatic having been infected in the 14 days prior to cruising.

3) People who do not know they are infected and have incubated prior to embarkation, but are asymptomatic.

 

The risk comes with the latter two groups.  The infected could include ships company as well as passengers.

 

The highest risk comes with the third group who would be infected, wouldn't know about it, and wouldn't present any symptoms which would enable ships company to quarantine them in a timely way and the occupants of their cabin, or move to the medical centre. 

 

What I don't think is well known is the prevalence of people who are in the third category only.  I'm happy to revisit if anyone knows this? 

 

However, it would be fair to say that if the overall ratio is 1:1700 then this sub ratio would be much lower.  So saying 3 on average on Iona??

 

I would also suggest that if the uncontrolled reproduction rate of the virus is broadly 3 with a 5-14 day incubation period, then it's a bit tough to say it would be 100 factor in a week on a cruise ship; particularly if any control factors were at least partially effective. 

 

That said I did hear about 1 becoming 53 in a US choir practice.  Passenger choirs practice will have to go on P&O.

 

More positively, there was some interesting research from Sweden today suggesting that natural immunity may be higher than first thought.

 

As I wrote last night, I don't buy the planes are safer environments argument, but I do think that there is a danger of over-estimating the entry and transmission risk overall. 

 

At some point we need to be able to have the choice over how comfortable we feel to live our lives.  I fully respect everyone who is clear that their view is only when the vaccine arrives and it may well be that public health pushes that, when it comes to cruise ship travel.  But I haven't given up on my Christmas cruise yet.  Give it until September 😉

 

Gary and me will be ok then.We both can't sing.

[grapau27]

14 hours ago, Addict said:

You lot really have gone off on a tangent haven't you.  Please remember this page was set up to follow Iona's Construction and to follow progress up to delivery.  I'm sure there are plenty of other pages for discussions about Coronavirus where you can discuss your theories.

I read on another thread that the Meyer shipyard are struggling.

Odyssey had an expensive fire accident to cover and the late delivery and payment for Iona is a concern.

 

[Addict]

39 minutes ago, grapau27 said:

I read on another thread that the Meyer shipyard are struggling.

Odyssey had an expensive fire accident to cover and the late delivery and payment for Iona is a concern.

 

Yes, I read that too.  We can only hope but I'm sure it will all work out.  We are not due to sail until 14 November so still crossing fingers all will be well.  In the meantime, it's been fun seeing the heart messages and handbrake turns in the trails. LOL

[brian1]

I'd tell Gary to cross off "relight my fire" on his repertoire.

[Addict]

5 minutes ago, brian1 said:

I'd tell Gary to cross off "relight my fire" on his repertoire.

 

I have no idea whether Gary was due on our sailing or not.  Not bothered either. LOL  But it does worry me whenever there is a code call for fire on a ship (forget what the code is). 🙂 

[sddsddean]

6 minutes ago, Addict said:

 

I have no idea whether Gary was due on our sailing or not.  Not bothered either. LOL  But it does worry me whenever there is a code call for fire on a ship (forget what the code is). 🙂 

Bravo bravo bravo (which means someone has been good at lighting fires!)

Simon

 

[Addict]

9 minutes ago, sddsddean said:

Bravo bravo bravo (which means someone has been good at lighting fires!)

Simon

 

 

That's the one.  Thankfully not heard it too often.  Alpha is much more common sadly.

[brian1]

Whatever it is, the Captain woke us up with it in the middle of the night on the Diamond Princess.When it was over he said a crew member had chucked a ceegareta butta (that's an  Italian accent) into his trash basket and decided to shorten his contract with us.On the other subject,I'm more of a Robbie kinda guy actually.

Edited July 2, 2020 by brian1