What will happen to pricing when cruises start back up?

[Ourusualbeach]

8 minutes ago, livingonthebeach said:

 

It increases confidence thus borrowing power.

 

"The company’s share price has been down 80 percent since the beginning of the year. On Monday, shares jumped 25 percent when Saudi Arabia’s public investment fund took an 8.2 percent stake in the company."

 

 

Carnival at $11 vs a high of about $60 down more off its high than Royal at 33 vs a high of $135 is.  Last weeks trading patterns look pretty similar.

 

 

Edited April 13, 2020 by Ourusualbeach

[livingonthebeach]

6 minutes ago, Ourusualbeach said:

Carnival at $11 vs a high of about $60 down more off its high than Royal at 33 vs a high of $135 is.  Last weeks trading patterns look pretty similar.

 

 

 

Using your charts RCL was down 16% in the same time period CCL was down 8%.   Royal was down by twice the percentage -- I don't know about you, but I'd rather lose 8% than 16% of anything.  Thanks for the charts. 

[firefly333]

1 minute ago, livingonthebeach said:

 

Using your charts RCL was down 16% in the same time period CCL was down 8%.   Royal was down by twice the percentage -- I don't know about you, but I'd rather lose 8% than 16% of anything.  Thanks for the charts. 

Well fyi, I bought 200 and 500 shares of carnival and rcl, I'm guessing about 15 years and and I paid within $7 the same for both. They were both at approximately same price per share, but rcl outperformed ccl by about 400%. From that standpoint, rcl might outperform again. I'm almost breaking even with what i paid for rcl, but down a bunch on ccl. Look at a 15 year chart for fun. 

[Iamcruzin]

On 3/24/2020 at 5:59 PM, 20165 said:

1000% agree and very true in regards to the last recession.  I dont think people will be beating down the cruise line doors to cruise, with the exception of people on this board, but we are a small percentage of cruisers.  Cruise lines are going to have to calm peoples fear of that many people being in close proximity before things go back to normal for them.

Even those here like myself wouldn't jump on a cruise right off the bat even at a discounted price. I'm curious to read the on board experience reviews of those who will sail first. There is so much to consider. Will the on board experience in terms of food, entertainment be cut to recoup financially. New cruises won't know the difference but we will. Will the CDC regulations be so stringent that it will change the overall experience? Will on board pricing be so extreme that I won't be able to afford a drink package of an individual drink. I understand those with FCC's rushing to book but for those who received cash back and aren't tied to one line will certainly shop around. Not being able to recreate the same vacation experience might influence cruisers to opt for a different type of vacation.  

[Ourusualbeach]

9 minutes ago, livingonthebeach said:

 

Using your charts RCL was down 16% in the same time period CCL was down 8%.   Royal was down by twice the percentage -- I don't know about you, but I'd rather lose 8% than 16% of anything.  Thanks for the charts. 

How so?  Same  time period Royal started off at $30 and is at $33.  Carnival started off at $15 and is now at $11.

 

Yeah Carnival gained more on one day but over the long run isn’t performing as well as Royal.  

[livingonthebeach]

2 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

Well fyi, I bought 200 and 500 shares of carnival and rcl, I'm guessing about 15 years and and I paid within $7 the same for both. They were both at approximately same price per share, but rcl outperformed ccl by about 400%. From that standpoint, rcl might outperform again. I'm almost breaking even with what i paid for rcl, but down a bunch on ccl. Look at a 15 year chart for fun. 

 

I was going by the current downturn but that's interesting to go back 15 years.   If you paid $7 for both you are ahead as RCL is around $32 and CCL $11.  Carnival has more liquidity than Royal and for that reason I predict it will come out of this mess on better footing.  I posted a video of Royal's Chairman and CEO pumping up his travel partners and it just doesn't inspire confidence either. 

[livingonthebeach]

3 minutes ago, Ourusualbeach said:

How so?  Same  time period Royal started off at $30 and is at $33.  Carnival started off at $15 and is now at $11.

 

Yeah Carnival gained more on one day but over the long run isn’t performing as well as Royal.  

 

I was looking at the percentage of that day only -- sorry my bad. 

[Ourusualbeach]

Just now, livingonthebeach said:

 

I was looking at the percentage of that day only -- sorry my bad. 

No worries.  Personally I think if we get to that stage it will be all 3 going down and not just one. 

[molly361]

Balcony price for our end of August 4 night trip  NOT the direction I thought pricing would go

 

4 NIGHT

Bahamas & Perfect Day Cruise

LEAVING FROM:Orlando (Port Canaveral), Florida, onboard Mariner of the Seas

VISITING:Orlando (Port Canaveral), Florida | Perfect Day at CocoCay, Bahamas | Nassau, Bahamas | Cruising | Orlando (Port Canaveral), Florida

from USD*$ 715Avg Per PersonValid for departure onAug 24, 2020VIEW 1 DATE+ Taxes, fees and port expenses $87.28 USD*

chevro

[livingonthebeach]

1 minute ago, Ourusualbeach said:

No worries.  Personally I think if we get to that stage it will be all 3 going down and not just one. 

 

Yes -- very true.  Let's hope it doesn't get to that point.  🤞

[Biker19]

1 minute ago, molly361 said:

Balcony price for our end of August 4 night trip  NOT the direction I thought pricing would go

I have a feeling it will be quite different inside final payment.

[molly361]

3 minutes ago, Biker19 said:

I have a feeling it will be quite different inside final payment.

That will be okay by me

[robmtx]

We booked 2 CP Balcs on Oasis, June 2020, originally at $2414 per cabin, later reduced to $1877 after a price match. In looking at same exact cruise for June 2021 the current website price for a CP Balc is $3098. So this represents a 28% increase from the original price BUT a whopping 65% increase over our final invoice. 125% FCC won't even put a dent in it.

 

[20165]

4 minutes ago, robmtx said:

We booked 2 CP Balcs on Oasis, June 2020, originally at $2414 per cabin, later reduced to $1877 after a price match. In looking at same exact cruise for June 2021 the current website price for a CP Balc is $3098. So this represents a 28% increase from the original price BUT a whopping 65% increase over our final invoice. 125% FCC won't even put a dent in it.

 

yep, thats our concern.  If we dont rebook our cruise this year, next year the prices will start to creep up as peoples memory of this fades.  

[Iamcruzin]

On 3/25/2020 at 1:43 PM, mitsugirly said:

 

If I go with the 125% and rebook (already looking at another cruise) I should have some left over as well. I was concerned about the left over amount and if you just lost it. Are you confirming that you won't? The only reason I will have any left over is because the price of another cruise is a lot higher than the one we had booked so we are having to let "them pick" our room to even be able to go...therefore, in that case, we'll have some left over. 

 

 

 

Ahh, so you have to cruise the first one before getting the rest for another cruise? That's crappy. 😞 

These FCC's sound like a pain in the @$$                      

[zekekelso]

I think prices will be way up to pay for all the changes imposed on the industry. 
 

I hope prices will be dirt cheap to lure people back. We’ll see which way it goes. 

[zekekelso]

1 hour ago, livingonthebeach said:

 

It increases confidence thus borrowing power.

 

"The company’s share price has been down 80 percent since the beginning of the year. On Monday, shares jumped 25 percent when Saudi Arabia’s public investment fund took an 8.2 percent stake in the company."

 

 

I agree it gave “the market” confidence. But in reality, for every one of those shares they bought, somebody else dumped shares. 

[NordicPrince]

5 minutes ago, zekekelso said:

I agree it gave “the market” confidence. But in reality, for every one of those shares they bought, somebody else dumped shares. 

The Saudi Investment purchased newly issued shares from the Carnival Corporation which put funds directly into the Carnival Corporation accounts. They did not buy shares which were on the open market so nobody dumped shares. The overall effect was that the share ownership was diluted so existing shareholders in effect own less of the company than what they did before the new stock offering was made.

The Saudis basically bought in at 20 cents on the dollar, hoping that their investment will be a long term winner.

What will happen tomorrow will be anyone's guess. We have had many good times cruising which we never thought we would have the opportunity to do, and look forward to doing it again, maybe in 2021 or 2022.

In the meanwhile, buckle on your helmets and stay safe.

[drsel]

Balcony price for our end of August 4 night trip onAug 24, 2020VIEW 1 DATE+ Taxes, fees and port expenses $87.28 USD* chevro

$715 + taxes is too much for a 4 night Caribbean Cruise. Plenty of deals below $60 pppd.