What will happen to pricing when cruises start back up?

[Hoopster95]

1 hour ago, Rancher Dave said:

Also, consider new ships are coming onto the scene so there will be even more cabins to fill.  

 

This is the only time I've seen this in this thread, and it been discussed in threads months/years ago... what happens during an economic slowdown to all the 5000 passenger ships? ... all Mega ships, not just Royals, there are so many 4000-5000 passenger ships now.

 

So I'm NCL's exec and I know only Loyal to Royal cruisers cannot be enticed, but they do not make up Royal's biggest market share. I would offer to redeem any RCL FCC's at an increased value (double? 150%??). I wonder how many new NCL cruisers they would magically get? We'll see how hard each company works to get back any market share at all.

 

By the way, pre-pandemic there were many deals at less than 1st day deployment prices after the final payment date.

[lovescats5]

Not sure how this relates to this subject but I was looking at our cruise in Sept. on Ovation and saw that Quantum was sailing Alaska.  Found the Grand Loft at $5000 cheaper, same time of year, and then realized it was Sept. 2021.  So if you want a good room in Star Class take a look.  Wish we could have jumped on that but already have Anthem booked for Thanksgiving for 2021.

[ano]

On 3/24/2020 at 11:57 AM, BND said:

Super basic supply and demand.  Initially they will be low to encourage bookings.  As demand increases, prices will increase.

True, but don't forget the cruise lines have full control over supply. Its called mothballing ships. Nothing says they all have to sail.

[firefly333]

I called to book 2 days ago. Every price on next years adventure OTS went up yesterday $13 or more. My rcl agent said they got a lot of bookings yesterday. She thinks maybe the stimulus. I doubt it, but for whatever reason by the time I could book i had to pay more, and that's just a 4 or 5 day cruise up that much. Someone else said what they were watching is up $500.

 

Galveston is being booking for next year. 

 

She said they are like airlines supply and demand when I complained about paying more.

 

I keep hearing about deals. I'm ready to jump on them if they appear.  Prices may not be sky high but they arent cheap like carnivals either. Some are playing to get 125% fcc and booking close in hoping to get cancelled again driving pricing up.

[fla gang]

Where will the cruises go if most of the islands are still shut down?

 

[cublet]

Hello,

 

My 2021 ex UK sailings are currently much more expensive, c£500, than when I looked them last year (November) under a non-promo regime.

 

Regards,

 

Cublet

[Cruise a holic]

I have three future Royal Caribbean cruises planned for next year.  Had to cancel this years cruises.  The prices have jumped up.  I will watch as perhaps they will go down in a few months.

[gatour]

On 3/24/2020 at 3:13 PM, xDisconnections said:

Lowering prices during an unusual circumstance won’t artificially create any real demand. The only thing it will do is cause the path to recovery to become more challenging. This would be disastrous for its ADR and RevPAR and will be more difficult to revert to its original non-discounted price point as soon as the general public becomes accustomed to the current price.

 

Once that happens, you’ll see a downward spiral where the cruise line will need to implement cost cutting measures in nearly every department in order to keep or retain profits and revenue. Another impact based on cruise fares will be the target demographic and who is able to afford the cruises. Before you know it, the product will be completely different and you may not recognize it or be fond of it.

After 9/11, I was able to book a room at the Contemporary Resort at Walt Disney World for a bit over $200, normally that room would have gone for $400.  I would not booked that room for $400 but was willing to book it at $200.  It was definitely an example of supply/demand.  Disney had a supply of rooms but the demand was weak so they decreased the price to increase the demand.

[Beardface]

On 3/24/2020 at 2:00 PM, drsel said:

Prices will have to go up because the cruise lines have to make up the huge losses

 

Hard disagreement.

 

The demand for cruising is going to crater over the short term.  For the general public, CV-19 was basically sold as a virus that started in China, and made its way into the US through all the cruise ports.  They look at what happened on the Diamond Princess and the Ruby Princess, and they're going to stay away.  And just in general, people who liked to casually cruise are going to be apprehensive about being on a ship in the water and the hygiene associated with that.  Not because of the ships themselves, but because of how unhygienic they have seen other people on these ships in the past.  That is going to negatively impact demand as well.  And all of this is before you realize the US just saw 3.3 million people file for unemployment this week, completely and utterly obliterating the previous weekly high since the 60s by around 500%.  And its not like a lot of these jobs are going to be immediately coming back, so people are going to have to make tough decisions with their money, and that's probably going to rule out going on a multi-thousand dollar luxury vacation on a cruise for a hefty chunk of the population that was hit by this economic downturn.

 

All this means is, the cruise lines will HAVE to adjust.  If they raise their prices, they'll destroy their demand more than it was already hurt.  In the short term, they'll have to drastically drop prices to kick start the industry again.  The demand just isn't going to be there to sell out these ships on a consistent basis.  And unless you see these lines start selling and mothballing some of their ships, they have to fill them, or they'll lose money on every sailing.  All this points toward prices needing to fall, at least for the short term.

[20165]

6 minutes ago, Beardface said:

 

Hard disagreement.

 

The demand for cruising is going to crater over the short term.  For the general public, CV-19 was basically sold as a virus that started in China, and made its way into the US through all the cruise ports.  They look at what happened on the Diamond Princess and the Ruby Princess, and they're going to stay away.  And just in general, people who liked to casually cruise are going to be apprehensive about being on a ship in the water and the hygiene associated with that.  Not because of the ships themselves, but because of how unhygienic they have seen other people on these ships in the past.  That is going to negatively impact demand as well.  And all of this is before you realize the US just saw 3.3 million people file for unemployment this week, completely and utterly obliterating the previous weekly high since the 60s by around 500%.  And its not like a lot of these jobs are going to be immediately coming back, so people are going to have to make tough decisions with their money, and that's probably going to rule out going on a multi-thousand dollar luxury vacation on a cruise for a hefty chunk of the population that was hit by this economic downturn.

 

All this means is, the cruise lines will HAVE to adjust.  If they raise their prices, they'll destroy their demand more than it was already hurt.  In the short term, they'll have to drastically drop prices to kick start the industry again.  The demand just isn't going to be there to sell out these ships on a consistent basis.  And unless you see these lines start selling and mothballing some of their ships, they have to fill them, or they'll lose money on every sailing.  All this points toward prices needing to fall, at least for the short term.

I dont have a crystal ball, but i would bet this post is spot on when cruising resumes.  The general public, non CC members, arent going to pay a premium to cruise in the near term and i would be willing to bet some CC members wont either so basically, the majority of people.  I love cruising, but i got into it because its a good value, if that goes away, ill definitely consider other land based options.

[xDisconnections]

49 minutes ago, gatour said:

After 9/11, I was able to book a room at the Contemporary Resort at Walt Disney World for a bit over $200, normally that room would have gone for $400.  I would not booked that room for $400 but was willing to book it at $200.  It was definitely an example of supply/demand.  Disney had a supply of rooms but the demand was weak so they decreased the price to increase the demand.

Things like that are disastrous to the ADR and RevPAR - two extremely important items that determine how a hotel is scored and compared against other properties on an STR Report.

 

Most properties can’t escape once they’re trapped in the lower bracket.

 

The demand was still there but you previously decided not to reserve at its original price point as it was too high. This helped skew the normal clientele.

Edited March 27, 2020 by xDisconnections

[drsel]

1 hour ago, Beardface said:

 

Hard disagreement.

 

The demand for cruising is going to crater over the short term.  For the general public, CV-19 was basically sold as a virus that started in China, and made its way into the US through all the cruise ports.  They look at what happened on the Diamond Princess and the Ruby Princess, and they're going to stay away.  And just in general, people who liked to casually cruise are going to be apprehensive about being on a ship in the water and the hygiene associated with that.  Not because of the ships themselves, but because of how unhygienic they have seen other people on these ships in the past.  That is going to negatively impact demand as well.  And all of this is before you realize the US just saw 3.3 million people file for unemployment this week, completely and utterly obliterating the previous weekly high since the 60s by around 500%.  And its not like a lot of these jobs are going to be immediately coming back, so people are going to have to make tough decisions with their money, and that's probably going to rule out going on a multi-thousand dollar luxury vacation on a cruise for a hefty chunk of the population that was hit by this economic downturn.

 

All this means is, the cruise lines will HAVE to adjust.  If they raise their prices, they'll destroy their demand more than it was already hurt.  In the short term, they'll have to drastically drop prices to kick start the industry again.  The demand just isn't going to be there to sell out these ships on a consistent basis.  And unless you see these lines start selling and mothballing some of their ships, they have to fill them, or they'll lose money on every sailing.  All this points toward prices needing to fall, at least for the short term.

Beardface, U are spot on! Thats a very intelligent analysis. Thanks

[firefly333]

It's all well and good to say you think prices should drop because they did after 9/11 ... my lady at royal Caribbean says they ARE seeing more booking the last few days.

 

Perhaps people are home and bored. She has no reason to lie to me.

 

The two coasts have some deals, Galveston is going up. Maybe people like me decided to drive to the port and not fly to florida. I sure dont want to fly to calif. 

 

I'm booked for next year and if price drop, heck I'm there getting a price drop. Theory is great. But my eyes see reality, prices out of Galveston keep going up for next year. 

 

I do think there will be some close in bargains. I'm not booking until next year and crossing my fingers about the doctors note. The doctors note will be my issue personally

[firefly333]

Another little fact is personal investors, us little guys, have a lot more cash on hand than during previous market crashes. 

 

They been saying even before the market crash millennial have a lot more to put down on houses than any time in the past.

 

The individual consumer is in better shape this downturn.

 

True there are the same people who weren't savers before broke and filing for unemployment, I've heard some will get more than their old salaries. I expect this group will be ok too. Some will sit home as long as they can draw a nice unemployment check.

 

It's the other half booking I'd guess. 

 

Stories about 9/11 ... I see a nice price on dream 5 day in August on carnival. If you want close in, carnival has deals.

[Sunny AZ Girl]

48 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

I do think there will be some close in bargains. I'm not booking until next year and crossing my fingers about the doctors note. The doctors note will be my issue personally

That is also my concern.  My DH will be 71 before our next cruise in 2021, but he is in perfect health at this time, not even on any medications.  That could change, but I am reading that doctors are refusing to sign that note due to liability concerns.

[firefly333]

7 minutes ago, Sunny AZ Girl said:

That is also my concern.  My DH will be 71 before our next cruise in 2021, but he is in perfect health at this time, not even on any medications.  That could change, but I am reading that doctors are refusing to sign that note due to liability concerns.

Yep I am not on meds either. I plan on doing some doctor shopping. ... if need be. There wouldnt probably be a vaccine by then. It's not like I couldnt catch a cold or regular flu before this.

 

Someone said try a video doctor, like they will, i kinda doubt it. I will go in by October if things are back to some normal and go thru blood tests and see what is said. But i plan on asking about a note before i make a appointment. Right now I'm on lockdown lol. Crossing fingers and toes.

[crisndeefromde]

I just really wonder how a medical note at the age of 70 and above is truly going to make a difference.  Neither of us have hit that mark yet but in a few years for sure,  We are knock on wood healthy, however, a medical issue can hit you at any age at any time and then what...make everyone have a note from their doctor  that at that time of signing the paper the passenger was in good health to sail?  I like the idea of temperature taking...that might solve some noro or other things that come on board but the note?  not sold on that one yet either.   Heck who is going to sail the longer cruises?  Just my thoughts.

[drsel]

As of now prices have fallen just a little bit, but not a big crash as anticipated.

Still can't find any bargains for Europe or Asia.

[20165]

The cruise we are looking at rebooking our june cruise to is waaaay cheaper than it has ever been in the past.  we are looking at rebooking over thanksgiving this year for $2k for the two of us balcony cabin.  we have never seen that cabin that cheap on thanksgiving week. 

[firefly333]

Stu on fbn interviewed someone from a ta site who said maybe it was inquiries up 40%, something was up 40%. People want to put those fccs to work, or carnival that $300 or $600 free obc.

 

Might be bargains out of nyc if they ever open, or after final payment, but out of Galveston rcl is playing games. Up one day down the next the same prices back and forth.

 

I'm sorely tempted by partial panama only offered this December but not next. But I fear panama might not be open or the ports I want, which is only reason I'd book it. Price not nudging.

[firefly333]

10 minutes ago, 20165 said:

The cruise we are looking at rebooking our june cruise to is waaaay cheaper than it has ever been in the past.  we are looking at rebooking over thanksgiving this year for $2k for the two of us balcony cabin.  we have never seen that cabin that cheap on thanksgiving week. 

This year since its iffy, prices are weak. .. its 2021 rising.

 

Another reason I'm tempted for the december partial panama cruise on jewel out of Galveston.. the price. Wouldnt get this chance again on rcl maybe. Carnival does this route but rare for rcl. 

Edited April 13, 2020 by firefly333

[20165]

9 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

This year since its iffy, prices are weak. .. its 2021 rising.

 

Another reason I'm tempted for the december partial panama cruise on jewel out of Galveston.. the price. Wouldnt get this chance again on rcl maybe. Carnival does this route but rare for rcl. 

absolutely the reason, but we are in the low risk category so if they are sailing by then, we are in.

Edited April 13, 2020 by 20165

[livingonthebeach]

I tend to agree with most of you.  Initially, the prices will more than likely drop due to the need to fill cabins and increase consumer confidence.  As for the long term, in order to stay profitable, fares will probably increase. 

 

It appears RCL has enough liquidity to last 10 months with 0 revenue -- any no-sail order beyond that time puts the company in reorganization / restructuring even bankruptcy peril. 

 

There will be no stimulus nor bail out funds for the cruise industry, unfortunately.  My hope is they don't go poof.  Carnival has a better chance of survival due to size and the fact the Saudi's stepped in to buy an 8 per cent stake. 

 

Let's hope for the best outcome!

[Ourusualbeach]

14 minutes ago, livingonthebeach said:

Carnival has a better chance of survival due to size and the fact the Saudi's stepped in to buy an 8 per cent stake. 

How does the Saudis buying 8% on the open market increase Carnivals chances? They did not inject $1 more into Carnival.

Edited April 13, 2020 by Ourusualbeach

[livingonthebeach]

4 minutes ago, Ourusualbeach said:

How does the Saudis buying 8% on the open market increase Carnivals chances? They did not inject $1 more into Carnival.

 

It increases confidence thus borrowing power.

 

"The company’s share price has been down 80 percent since the beginning of the year. On Monday, shares jumped 25 percent when Saudi Arabia’s public investment fund took an 8.2 percent stake in the company."