Changes in Onboard Behavior & Procedures after Cruises restart sailing again...

[HotinHavasu]

On 4/21/2020 at 7:24 PM, navybankerteacher said:

What cruise was that - where “...the CDC came on board and took new cleanliness measures.”?

Panama Canal

 

[navybankerteacher]

2 hours ago, SRF said:

 

But, once a vaccine and antibody test are readily available, they can only infect those that did not take steps (vaccination) to prevent being infected.

 

And that is THEIR choice to not be protected.

But it is a choice which impacts others - anyone who fails to get immunized does not only put himself at risk, he also chooses to put others at risk as well — some of whom might have conditions which preclude their own immunization.   

[bonsai3s]

Refocus...

Place your anger towards the CCP...Chinese Communist Party.

(Not the people, the government.)

CCP has lied to the world.

 

Vaccine? The virus already mutated.

 

This will all come to pass.  And hope good things comes out of it.

Cruising will come back...different, but could be even better.

Cleaner and safer ships.  Healthier passengers. Better medical units. Less crowded.

 

I predict the first few sailings will be truly wonderful...cruise lines can't wait to start sailing...the crew members are eager to get back to work....................the service will be outstanding.  Happy Sailing.

[clo]

24 minutes ago, bonsai3s said:

Refocus...

Place your anger towards the CCP...Chinese Communist Party.

(Not the people, the government.)

CCP has lied to the world.

And then there's the USCP. Not exactly forthcoming, eh?

[rkacruiser]

7 hours ago, AF-1 said:

Ladies and gentlemen.  I think we are giving out to much info about bacteria and genital areas.  We know about the virus; but we don't need to know every medical condition in detail.  Sorry but this is a little gross.  

 

5 hours ago, clo said:

And I disagree. 

 

I also disagree.  Some of us seemed to have paid little attention to whatever health education we received during our K-12 years--if we received any such education.  

[clo]

2 minutes ago, rkacruiser said:

 

 

I also disagree.  Some of us seemed to have paid little attention to whatever health education we received during our K-12 years--if we received any such education.  

Ignorance is NOT bliss.

[Toofarfromthesea]

On 4/22/2020 at 12:06 PM, navybankerteacher said:

The fat lady hasn’t sung yet. Let’s see what happens as controls are eased.

 

What does that have to do with usefulness of a model which empirically is 2 orders of magnitude off?

[Toofarfromthesea]

20 hours ago, ilikeanswers said:

 

Germany was getting a lot of praise for their low death rate and I remember an article where a German minister told the media "don't congratulate us, it isn't over" 😂 Singapore does demonstrate not to be over confident too soon though their death rate is very good. 

 

To be clear, I wasn't congratulating Florida for it's low number of hospitalizations.  Of course that can change.  Rather my point had to do with the utter uselessness of making any significant decisions, like how many ventilators we need or how many ICU beds we need, based on the results of a model that has empirically been shown to be off by 2 orders of magnitude within its own terms and its own timeframe.  Even in the worst hit spot, NY, the model-predicted need for ventilators was so overstated that they are now shipping some out to other states.

 

[Toofarfromthesea]

7 hours ago, SRF said:

 

The models are not trash.  The data being put into the models is.

 

We DO NOT KNOW HOW MANY CASES THERE ARE/HAVE BEEN.  Even now, they are telling people, if they have mild symptoms to just stay home.  All of those cases are not counted.  Asymptomatic cases are not being counted.

 

Estimates were from 10 to 300 times as many cases as reported.

 

A recent (published this week) study in San Mateo County, found that the unreported, but positive for antibody, was 48 to 85 times the reported cases in that county.

 

 

 

I haven't see the San Mateo study, but I have seen and cited the Santa Clara and LA studies previously.  And now we have results from NY, once again indicating a far higher past infection rate.  While the hope is that the antibodies DO confer immunity, even if they don't the results of these studies are illustrating how much the mortality rate has been overstated.

And we will have to agree to disagree about the models.  A model that is off by 2 orders of magnitude is trash, in my book.

[navybankerteacher]

11 minutes ago, Toofarfromthesea said:

 

What does that have to do with usefulness of a model which empirically is 2 orders of magnitude off?

Sounds impressive - but what meaning has any “order of magnitude” without a reference value? 

In any event there is too much as yet unknown to make judgements about meaning and utility  of predictions.

[Toofarfromthesea]

5 hours ago, clo said:

You're talking about on a ship, right? I'd wondered about that. I'm not being sarcastic: how does one eat with a mask on? I have a really dry mouth so when we're in a store  I'll turn away from anything/anybody, slip my mask down, take a quick sip and replace it. A few seconds. I would also anticipate compliance to be very slim. I don't disagree with you, just don't see it happening.

 

I saw your other post about your reaction to seeing someone in a store without a mask and I would like to nominate you for Sergeant of Masks for the House of Representatives.  Have you seen them carefully social distancing and then going up to the podium and pulling down their masks to speak?  Are they so vain that they won't speak *through* the mask?  Surgeons do it all the time.

If they aren't dunking the whole podium in anti-viral disinfectant after each speaker then I think that's a problem.  I even saw a clip of one with her mask around her neck who wiped her nose with her finger and then gripped the podium.  It was as disgusting as watching Mike Bloomberg eat pizza from a shared box.

We need you in DC to whip those Congress critters into shape!!!

[ilikeanswers]

4 minutes ago, Toofarfromthesea said:

I haven't see the San Mateo study, but I have seen and cited the Santa Clara and LA studies previously.  .

 

I don't know about LA but the Santa Clara IMO was far too small to be of any real use. I would look at those in Europe and Asia as they have a far bigger data set when trying to understand or predict the behaviour of the virus and disease. 

[Toofarfromthesea]

9 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

Sounds impressive - but what meaning has any “order of magnitude” without a reference value? 

In any event there is too much as yet unknown to make judgements about meaning and utility  of predictions.

 

It is commonly understood (Google the term order of magnitude) that in the absence of a different measure of scale an order of magnitude means a base of 10.  Hence being off by an order of magnitude means being off by a factor of ten.  Being off by 2 orders of magnitude means being off by 2 factors of 10, i.e., 100.  The model predicted 185,000, the empirical was 2,000.  2 orders of magnitude, since it more a nearest thing than an exact thing, sonce it derives from scientific notation.

Gotta say, though, even if you didn't understand what order of magnitude meant, it is still a huge difference between an expected of 185,000 and an actual of 2,000, which was the real point.

[Toofarfromthesea]

10 minutes ago, ilikeanswers said:

 

I don't know about LA but the Santa Clara IMO was far too small to be of any real use. I would look at those in Europe and Asia as they have a far bigger data set when trying to understand or predict the behaviour of the virus and disease. 

 

I haven't seen any results or studies of antibody testing in Europe.  Can you point me to any?  I see Germany is getting ready to start a large-scale antibody testing study that should be helpful.  I can't find any other reports of large-scale antibody testing in Europe.  Other testing, yes.  But not antibody testing.

Have you looked at the study they did in NY, whose results were announced yesterday?

[ontheweb]

4 hours ago, navybankerteacher said:

But it is a choice which impacts others - anyone who fails to get immunized does not only put himself at risk, he also chooses to put others at risk as well — some of whom might have conditions which preclude their own immunization.   

I know of a youngster, kindergarten age, who was exempt from the measles vaccine because he has a compromised immunity system. In the end, his parents chose to have him get the vaccine because with measles going around because of the people not getting their kids immunized for "religious" reasons they felt it was the lesser risk than him getting the measles due to the lack of herd immunity. So yes, there is definitely a negative effect on others from skipping vaccinations.

[PoppyandNana]

7 hours ago, Roger88 said:

I expect masks and gloves to be mandatory now. Also, I expect elderly people to go thorugh some checks a few day before boarding and moreover, this thing will be enforced on the governmental level. I only hope that a number of these limitations will be dismissed eventually. But this is the reality that awaits us right now 

Are you referring to Celebrity's policy of not allowing someone over 70 who has diabetes, heart condition et al?  Happens to fit my description to a tee.  Can't imagine asking my doctor to sign X's form.   Wouldn't this policy apply to the vast majority of cruise passengers or at least a signifiant portion of them?

[AF-1]

I understand why those of you who disagree with me.  And that's ok.  We live another day.  

[chipmaster]

36 minutes ago, Toofarfromthesea said:

 

I haven't seen any results or studies of antibody testing in Europe.  Can you point me to any?  I see Germany is getting ready to start a large-scale antibody testing study that should be helpful.  I can't find any other reports of large-scale antibody testing in Europe.  Other testing, yes.  But not antibody testing.

Have you looked at the study they did in NY, whose results were announced yesterday?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/us/coronavirus-early-outbreaks-cities.html

 

An interesting set of studies are coming out about how much earlier the SARs-CoV-19 virus was in the US and how many people were exposed.

 

One thing is the anti-body test quality and false positive are very high, thus take the large number with a "grain of salt"  but it shouldn't surprise anyone the difficulty in a developing Pandemic with limited heath care resources to stop the spread, much is being devoted to accessing how widespread it is.  All you need is look at the hospitals in Detroit, Boston, New York and see that most testing will be focused on those most ill and not evaluating the larger population.  It was the same in China and Europe, of course the total exposed is much larger.   

 

Even if you take the validity of the test the fact that 5% of the population had been exposed and in the new NYC one as much as a quarter, the fascination with the implied low mortality rate is morbid!

 

While the death rate % is low, the huge numbers infected means the same number of deaths, yeah fewer of those infected are dying but the story of this large number of infected is too many are dying, thus no different than what we have now, a terrible new disease killing tens of thousand a WEEK not a month.   

 

So yeah death rate for infected is very low, the bad news everyone eventually will catch it and guess what some one you know, work with our neighbor will die from it.    

 

Now the large implication is how hard we want to trade off economic hardship versus pushing out the death curve,?

 

People seem to think if enough people get exposed > 50% that herd immunity may rule and we can remove all restrictions.   But it is too early to understand if having been exposed once gives you immunity, there are documented cases of re-infection and it is to early yet to understand if those that infected could on 2nd round ( with marginal body function as noted in many studies now; obesity, hypertension, cardiac and respiratory issues, diabetes etc. etc. ).  Those most at risk for being admitted to hospital are likely the same kind I see on the cruise, they aren't fairing very well. 

Edited April 23, 2020 by chipmaster

[navybankerteacher]

23 minutes ago, Toofarfromthesea said:

 

...  
Gotta say, though, even if you didn't understand what order of magnitude meant, it is still a huge difference between an expected of 185,000 and an actual of 2,000, which was the real point.

The real point is that there is too much still to learn —-  (“empirical” is an impressive term -  but it’s meaning has to reflect the size of the sample — the gathering of which is on-going) : the  ultimate extent of this round of infections,  whether re-infection can occur among previously infected, secondary symptoms which may emerge, the impact of pending loosening restrictions, the likelihood of a second round later this year —  to take too much comfort from what has been learned to date. 

[ilikeanswers]

The antibody tests and the studies various companies have done with them are problematic in themselves:

 

Antibody surveys suggesting vast undercount of coronavirus infections may be unreliable

 

Will antibody tests for the coronavirus really change everything?

 

A lot of these studies and tests are being rushed and not being put through the proper rigors of the scientific method. I know we want immediate answers but the reality is if we want accurate answers we have to wait for the long term studies along with thorough examinations of the statistics and that is going to take time. 

[clo]

1 hour ago, Toofarfromthesea said:

We need you in DC to whip those Congress critters into shape!!!

I would like nothing better!!!!!!!!!! In our family when there's a tough issue to deal with, my husband calls in Bruno aka ME 🙂

[clo]

1 hour ago, PoppyandNana said:

Wouldn't this policy apply to the vast majority of cruise passengers or at least a signifiant portion of them?

I would think that most of us in the 70+ group have some kind of "underlying" issue.

[TheJuryIsStillOut]

42 minutes ago, clo said:

I would think that most of us in the 70+ group have some kind of "underlying" issue.

In the under 70 group also.

[Roz]

7 minutes ago, TheJuryIsStillOut said:

In the under 70 group also.

 

This is true.  I'm 67 and work with a lot of people in their late 20s/early 30s.  A lot of them have diabetes, HBP, are allergic to peanuts, wheat, and milk, and overall are very sickly.  We Baby Boomers, on the other hand, are quite hearty even though we grew up eating bologna sandwiches on Wonder Bread spread with Miracle Whip.

[rkacruiser]

5 minutes ago, Roz said:

 

 I'm 67  We Baby Boomers, on the other hand, are quite hearty even though we grew up eating bologna sandwiches on Wonder Bread spread with Miracle Whip.

 

😀  My goodness! How have we ever been able to stay alive?