No Sail Order extended - 100 days

[kk99]

We were supposed to sail Flora this month. This was posted on the Crew Center site. I hope everyone recovers, and no more spread is announced. I do not see Ecuador recovering in the immediate future and wish the residents better days ahead. 
 

Galapagos health authorities announced on Tuesday that 48 crew members aboard the cruise ship Celebrity Flora tested positive for COVID-19. The tests were carried out on all 69 crew members currently on board the ship, and 48 tested positive for the virus. The crew is isolated in single cabins and the ship is under quarantine. Authorities say this is a significant increase to the total number of cases in Galapagos Islands which had only 24 cases reported on the Archipelago.

Galapagos Emergency Operations Committee released the following letter informing the community regarding the COVID-19 tests of Celebrity Flora crew.

[jonthomas]

40 minutes ago, drakes2 said:

Do not make the final payment. Your deposit will become an FCC. There is no guarantee you will get a refund and as time goes on even a lesser chance. No way will a July cruise out of Rome happen.  

 

Very wise advice.

[Pushka]

42 minutes ago, kk99 said:

We were supposed to sail Flora this month. This was posted on the Crew Center site. I hope everyone recovers, and no more spread is announced. I do not see Ecuador recovering in the immediate future and wish the residents better days ahead. 
 

Galapagos health authorities announced on Tuesday that 48 crew members aboard the cruise ship Celebrity Flora tested positive for COVID-19. The tests were carried out on all 69 crew members currently on board the ship, and 48 tested positive for the virus. The crew is isolated in single cabins and the ship is under quarantine. Authorities say this is a significant increase to the total number of cases in Galapagos Islands which had only 24 cases reported on the Archipelago.

Galapagos Emergency Operations Committee released the following letter informing the community regarding the COVID-19 tests of Celebrity Flora crew.

I can understand why remote ports may close to cruise ships for quite some time. 

[VickyMcG]

1 hour ago, kk99 said:

We were supposed to sail Flora this month. This was posted on the Crew Center site. I hope everyone recovers, and no more spread is announced. I do not see Ecuador recovering in the immediate future and wish the residents better days ahead. 
 

Galapagos health authorities announced on Tuesday that 48 crew members aboard the cruise ship Celebrity Flora tested positive for COVID-19. The tests were carried out on all 69 crew members currently on board the ship, and 48 tested positive for the virus. The crew is isolated in single cabins and the ship is under quarantine. Authorities say this is a significant increase to the total number of cases in Galapagos Islands which had only 24 cases reported on the Archipelago.

Galapagos Emergency Operations Committee released the following letter informing the community regarding the COVID-19 tests of Celebrity Flora crew.

 

Oh, my Lord! Where do I find this "Crew Center site"?

Thank you for the information.  How awful for the crew and their families. Frightening. 48 out of 69. 😦

[npcl]

20 minutes ago, VickyMcG said:

Oh, my Lord! Where do I find this "Crew Center site"?

Thank you for the information.  How awful for the crew and their families. Frightening. 48 out of 69. 😦

https://crew-center.com/

 

Some more  information about the COVID-19 on ships.  Not good. 

Edited April 18, 2020 by npcl

[kk99]

 

I  have a friend who works on the ship. I can only hope that everyone’s health is restored, and the safe return to their loved ones as soon as possible. 

 

[RICCruisers]

On 4/16/2020 at 8:58 PM, kearney said:

I just took a quick look at the CDC orders.... personally I don't know how they (cruise lines) can actually comply with the request without resulting in increasing the cost of cruising some 3 or 4 fold (at least). I have pulled a couple of requirements to provide an example of items that make me wonder how they can fulfill these requirements..... here are a few of them

f. Onboard isolation, quarantine, and social distancing protocols to minimize the risk of transmission and spread of COVID-19; Okay this makes sense... but how do you do this on elevators, in the main dining room, buffet, theater etc... one idea... cut occupancy 50% and then have two or three seats between groups in the theater. Remove bar stools, pool chairs so people are sitting further apart. Limit how many people can be in a shop at a time... close the spa.. since those services are hands on... Are hot tubs okay?
g. Onboard medical staffing, including number and type of staff, and equipment in sufficient quantity to provide a hospital level of care (e.g., ventilators, facemasks, personal protective equipment) for the infected without the need for hospitalization onshore;  Wow, hospital level care... how many doctors and nurses would have to be added to the crew.... how many ventilators would be acceptable 5, 10 50? Also "without the need for hospitalization onshore" suggests that each ship also needs to be able to provide ICU level of care... is that even possible?
h. An outbreak management and response plan to provision and assist an affected cruise ship that relies on industry resources, e.g., mobilization of additional cruise ships or other vessels to act as “hospital” ship for the infected, “quarantine” ship for the exposed, and “residential” ship for those providing care and treatment, including the ability to transport individuals between ships as needed; So does this mean that each cruise line needs to have a hospital and a quarantine ship floating around the Caribbean, Alaska or near Hawaii... just in case? Oh that won't cost anything 
 

So I only pulled a few of the required elements for a plan to return to cruising. It looks to me like a wish list. Personally I think this would kill the cruise industry... completely unrealistic. I wonder if the US navy will be developing a similar plan... would be interesting to see if they will give sailors enough space for proper social distancing.. and no sharing of beds/bunks... if they are not going to make similar changes... why not.. don't they care about the lives of our sailors? Anyway.... if his goes through say good by to cruising or be prepared to pay a much much higher fee... and less fun.

 

I'm not positive if the cruise lines will need to comply with all of the requirements you have listed.  The following is another part of the CDC Order that was published that extended the No Sail Order:

 

"This Order shall continue in operation until the earliest of (1) the expiration of the Secretary of Health and Human Services' declaration that COVID-19 constitutes a public health emergency; (2) the CDC Director rescinds or modifies the order based on specific public health or other considerations; or (3) 100 days from the date of publication in the Federal Register"

 

Alex Azar is the Secretary of HHS and he can remove his declaration or Robert Redford, the CDC Director, can rescind or modify the order.  Azar is a Cabinet member and serves at the pleasure of the President.  I'm not sure who Redford works for.  We all know how the President feels about "Opening America Again".

 

I do realize this only impacts ships that sail out of US ports.  If the CLIA accepts all of the requirements, then the cruise lines would likely need to comply or resign as members.  I doubt CLIA will accept all of the requirements since it is my understanding the cruise lines fund CLIA. 

 

Here is a link to the full CDC Order that was published on 4/15/2020.

 

https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/04/15/2020-07930/no-sail-order-and-suspension-of-further-embarkation-notice-of-modification-and-extension-and-other

 

[rimmit]

Given the sheer number of data points that cruise ships are mobile incubators of Covid, there is no scenario outside of a miracle cure of an already FDA approved drug that gets the cruise ships moving again in the near future.  They have burned every bit of goodwill they had this last month with outbreak after outbreak and have been nothing but headaches for a multitude of foreign countries.

 

There is no reasonable scientific argument that anyone can make that can be presented To the CDC or foreign government that will allow cruise ships to start cruising again before a vaccine is available.  If anyone has anyway to make cruising safe enough to get the CDC to give a thumbs up I would love to hear it as I have quite bit of FCCs and airline vouchers I need to use.

[EscapeFromConnecticut]

1 hour ago, rimmit said:

Given the sheer number of data points that cruise ships are mobile incubators of Covid, there is no scenario outside of a miracle cure of an already FDA approved drug that gets the cruise ships moving again in the near future.  They have burned every bit of goodwill they had this last month with outbreak after outbreak and have been nothing but headaches for a multitude of foreign countries.

 

There is no reasonable scientific argument that anyone can make that can be presented To the CDC or foreign government that will allow cruise ships to start cruising again before a vaccine is available.  If anyone has anyway to make cruising safe enough to get the CDC to give a thumbs up I would love to hear it as I have quite bit of FCCs and airline vouchers I need to use.

Good points.

 

There will be no partisan political "get out of jail free card" for the CDC No Sail Order. Because biology would overrule it; put thousands of people into ships for a week at a time & you'll just have another round of desperate portside ambulance transfers and quarantines. The same virus that killed lots of passengers and sickened many more has not gone anywhere.

 

Political opinions carry no weight with science. That's why even Arnold Donald admitted on MSNBC this week that cruising is done until social distancing isn't necessary any more. 

 

 If Azar and Trump wanted their fingerprints on a "reopening of cruising," the CDC order would have been deeply watered down & weakened last week. Didn't happen.

 

 

[TeeRick]

9 hours ago, rimmit said:

Given the sheer number of data points that cruise ships are mobile incubators of Covid, there is no scenario outside of a miracle cure of an already FDA approved drug that gets the cruise ships moving again in the near future.  They have burned every bit of goodwill they had this last month with outbreak after outbreak and have been nothing but headaches for a multitude of foreign countries.

 

There is no reasonable scientific argument that anyone can make that can be presented To the CDC or foreign government that will allow cruise ships to start cruising again before a vaccine is available.  If anyone has anyway to make cruising safe enough to get the CDC to give a thumbs up I would love to hear it as I have quite bit of FCCs and airline vouchers I need to use.

There are a substantial number of therapeutic anti-viral drugs in development and in clinical trials for COVID-19 right now.  The safe and efficacious ones will be given rapid approval by the FDA and by similar regulatory agencies in other countries.  Very promising results reported this week with the Gilead drug Remdesivir.  

[VickyMcG]

31 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

There are a substantial number of therapeutic anti-viral drugs in development and in clinical trials for COVID-19 right now.  The safe and efficacious ones will be given rapid approval by the FDA and by similar regulatory agencies in other countries.  Very promising results reported this week with the Gilead drug Remdesivir.  

I was so glad to hear about the Remdesivir, except it turns out Gilead's results were leaked (by them) and seems a small portion of the trial at that, taken out of context, thus anecdotal evidence.  Alas, still no silver bullet.  

But it will happen, it's just....when?!

[rimmit]

27 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

There are a substantial number of therapeutic anti-viral drugs in development and in clinical trials for COVID-19 right now.  The safe and efficacious ones will be given rapid approval by the FDA and by similar regulatory agencies in other countries.  Very promising results reported this week with the Gilead drug Remdesivir.  

Yes I have been following Remdesivir.  It is definitely hopeful, however, it is unlikely to be a miracle drug or a drug that would allow cruisers to return to cruising.  In the study, at time of enrollment they excluded ventilated patients, which is a huge portion of the patient population.  They were continued on Remdesivir if They ended up on the vent, but for enrollment purposes they were not included, so they were receiving the drug earlier in the disease process.  Also it is administered IV, so really to get it you would need to be bad enough to require inpatient admission.  So it’s not an outpatient therapy.

 

Early results are very promising and I am very hopeful to have it in our bag of tricks to fight this, but I don’t think it’s gonna make things better for cruising.  For cruises to take place they are going to need a drug that pretty much can stop Covid in its tracks, or render it down to the level of a common cold, and be given as prophylaxis to all known contacts (or basically an entire ship) quickly and efficiently to prevent further infection and transmission.  Basically we need a pill that can prevent further transmission and also reduce Covid to the point where the likelihood of ventilation is negligible.

 

If there is a drug that can do that, I could see the CDC signing off on allowing cruises to go if they have a large enough supply of the drug on board to give to an entire ship in the event of an outbreak. Let’s hope they can find one from our existing FDA approved antiviral therapies. 

[VickyMcG]

13 minutes ago, rimmit said:

Yes I have been following Remdesivir.  It is definitely hopeful, however, it is unlikely to be a miracle drug or a drug that would allow cruisers to return to cruising.  In the study, at time of enrollment they excluded ventilated patients, which is a huge portion of the patient population.  They were continued on Remdesivir if They ended up on the vent, but for enrollment purposes they were not included, so they were receiving the drug earlier in the disease process.  Also it is administered IV, so really to get it you would need to be bad enough to require inpatient admission.  So it’s not an outpatient therapy.

 

Early results are very promising and I am very hopeful to have it in our bag of tricks to fight this, but I don’t think it’s gonna make things better for cruising.  For cruises to take place they are going to need a drug that pretty much can stop Covid in its tracks, or render it down to the level of a common cold, and be given as prophylaxis to all known contacts (or basically an entire ship) quickly and efficiently to prevent further infection and transmission.  Basically we need a pill that can prevent further transmission and also reduce Covid to the point where the likelihood of ventilation is negligible.

 

If there is a drug that can do that, I could see the CDC signing off on allowing cruises to go if they have a large enough supply of the drug on board to give to an entire ship in the event of an outbreak. Let’s hope they can find one from our existing FDA approved antiviral therapies. 

Yeah, as I said, anecdotal.  Inconclusive....this is a very complicated virus. 

[kearney]

They have been looking for a vaccine for the common cold for decades... with no success. Since the common cold is a form of the coronavirus... I really wonder about the possibility that a successful one can be developed quickly. I worked back in the early 2000s on a flu vaccine that was hoped to be part of a pandemic flu response. One of the things I learned from our research team... is that a vaccine that works in a hamster only proves that it works on a hamster. Until we get a successful human trial and not a safety study,... I just don't think we will see something in time to save the 2021 or 2022 seasons. I think 2020 is done. We do know that the annual flu vaccine is often a miss and again they have been working on a universal flu vaccine (one that would work on multiple strains) for at least a decade.  Short of that, we need an effective and cost effective treatment that has a high success rate. I am concerned about the patient cost of Remdesivir.. I think that is one reason people were so hopeful for a low cost generic hydroxychloroquine drug. I keep hearing mixed results for that... but I suspect that its effectiveness is tied to using zinc and azithromycin combination and it may only work in a subset of people. I did read one doctor having luck using a different antibiotic than azithromycin... since it could contribute to heart issues for some patients. In any event... if they could come up with an approved drug treatment... that might help cruise lines conform to CDC needs in that they might need fewer ventilators and medical staff than the would need if they sailed today.  

 

Reading the requirements... I just don't see cruise lines returning to anything that resembles past operations in a very long time... and if they do start up again... it will be a very different experience... at least that is my concern...but then again... what won't be changing? Even going out to eat or to the theater is likely to change noticeably

[TeeRick]

If you go back to my original comment in post 235,  I was just pointing out that there are multiple therapeutics being investigated right now.  I did mention Remdesivir as only one of them with early positive clinical results (leaked-yes) but there will be others- perhaps all sooner than a vaccine approach.  Anything will help.  By help I mean effective therapy for hospitalized COVID-19 patients.  That would be wonderful.  Who in the world other than those on cruise critic care if drugs or vaccines can be rapidly developed for cruise passengers like me?  Rightfully we should be a very low priority.

[VickyMcG]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_on_cruise_ships

you can see how many crew members on any given ship are infected. On wikipedia or the Crew Center website. 😪

[npcl]

On 4/19/2020 at 5:47 AM, TeeRick said:

If you go back to my original comment in post 235,  I was just pointing out that there are multiple therapeutics being investigated right now.  I did mention Remdesivir as only one of them with early positive clinical results (leaked-yes) but there will be others- perhaps all sooner than a vaccine approach.  Anything will help.  By help I mean effective therapy for hospitalized COVID-19 patients.  That would be wonderful.  Who in the world other than those on cruise critic care if drugs or vaccines can be rapidly developed for cruise passengers like me?  Rightfully we should be a very low priority.

Remdesivir info was not leaked by the company.  It was a video of a presentation by a principal investigator to fellow staff members at University of Chicago talking about what they were seeing.  That got into the hands of a reporter.

 

I have been involved with several clinical trials.  What appeared to be positive indications on a drugs use, often do not hold up to analysis when all of the trail results are in.  In this case the Remdesivir trial is a non-blinded, single arm study.  One where it is very easy to jump to conclusions that do not hold up on analysis. 

 

We will see about Remdesivir when the trial results come out from both the Gilead trial and the more telling results from blinded two arm NIH trial. Especially since Remdesivir has a fairly substantial side effect profile.

 

Yes, this is pretty much all hands on deck when it comes to developing both new therapeutics, as well as vaccines. Therapeutics have the advantage in that they can be tested faster and have a lower  hurdle to cross when it comes to risk profile (after all they are just given to ill patients) than vaccines that must meet a very high safety profile.

 

 

Edited April 21, 2020 by npcl

[npcl]

1 hour ago, VickyMcG said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_on_cruise_ships

you can see how many crew members on any given ship are infected. On wikipedia or the Crew Center website. 😪

Keep in mind that those are the confirmed cases, does not include the "flu like symptoms" cases that were never tested, such as on the Zaandam which had 9 confirmed cases (now 11) even though it had a couple of hundred with "flu like symptoms" that were never tested and allowed to leave as long as they did not have a fever.

[TeeRick]

19 hours ago, npcl said:

Remdesivir info was not leaked by the company.  It was a video of a presentation by a principal investigator to fellow staff members at University of Chicago talking about what they were seeing.  That got into the hands of a reporter.

 

I have been involved with several clinical trials.  What appeared to be positive indications on a drugs use, often do not hold up to analysis when all of the trail results are in.  In this case the Remdesivir trial is a non-blinded, single arm study.  One where it is very easy to jump to conclusions that do not hold up on analysis. 

 

We will see about Remdesivir when the trial results come out from both the Gilead trial and the more telling results from blinded two arm NIH trial. Especially since Remdesivir has a fairly substantial side effect profile.

 

Yes, this is pretty much all hands on deck when it comes to developing both new therapeutics, as well as vaccines. Therapeutics have the advantage in that they can be tested faster and have a lower  hurdle to cross when it comes to risk profile (after all they are just given to ill patients) than vaccines that must meet a very high safety profile.

 

 

npcl- I completely agree with your comments.  Thanks!

[VickyMcG]

So, the Celebrity Flora is now in Baltra (Galapagos island).  48 of their 96 crew members are down with this nasty virus.  They are staying on board.  I wonder if they will cancel our June 14th cruise?

Ecuador is in terrible shape.  😢

[marieps]

Very sorry for your situation.  We planned for more than 18 months to do Xpedition in 2012.  I hope you get to go at some point.  The experience is unlike any we've known.

[TeeRick]

12 hours ago, VickyMcG said:

So, the Celebrity Flora is now in Baltra (Galapagos island).  48 of their 96 crew members are down with this nasty virus.  They are staying on board.  I wonder if they will cancel our June 14th cruise?

Ecuador is in terrible shape.  😢

I would not be thinking that a June 14th cruise there (or anywhere) will happen at this point.

[VickyMcG]

43 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

I would not be thinking that a June 14th cruise there (or anywhere) will happen at this point.

 I think you are right, TeeRick,  maybe we can wait it out, get the FCC and go next year.🙏

[VickyMcG]

Ridiculous, my flight was canceled to the Galapagos, but the cruise is still on! My cruise tour begins June 12 on Celebrity Flora. And 48 crew members are sick onboard with the Corona virus.  That's half the crew!  Come on, cancel it already. It's a month out. Most irritating.

Edited May 13, 2020 by VickyMcG

[WNcruiser]

I am really surprised there hasn't been an announcement yet. I thought for sure we would have seen an extension of cancellations by yesterday or today. RCI/X have been a little behind Carnival/Princess who made their announcement last week.