No Sail Order extended - 100 days

[npcl]

1 hour ago, Charles4515 said:

 

I don’t think most people are reading the order. The content of the CDC order, the conclusions and recommendations for future sailings are much more important than quibbling over the dates. Time will tell about when sailings actually return not how long the order is in effect for now.


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One interesting thing is what the document says that CLIA presented in their March plan, which they said that they could implement in 7 days then, yet it appears that they have still not implemented.

[rimmit]

2 hours ago, Charles4515 said:

 

I don’t think most people are reading the order. The content of the CDC order, the conclusions and recommendations for future sailings are much more important than quibbling over the dates. Time will tell about when sailings actually return not how long the order is in effect for now.


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I agree.  Everyone is focused on the potential end date.  The date DOESNT MATTER.  The most important part of the document is what the government wants to see the cruiselines do to make it such that they aren’t using all the resources of the US to bail them out every time there is a quarantine.  They want hospital ships, quarantine ships, residential ships and a full fledged hospital Capable of dealing with covid patients for extended periods of time on the actual cruise ship.

 

Based on the document there is zero chance the cruiselines are sailing in 100 days out of the US unless covid just magically Disappears from the face of the earth.  I would be shocked if any other country does not follow the CDC lead on this matter

Edited April 14, 2020 by rimmit

[markeb]

5 minutes ago, rimmit said:

I agree.  Everyone is focused on the potential end date.  The date DOESNT MATTER.  The most important part of the document is what the government wants to see the cruiselines do to make it such that they aren’t using all the resources of the US to bail them out every time there is a quarantine.  They want hospital ships, quarantine ships, residential ships and a full fledged hospital Capable of dealing with covid patients for extended periods of time on the actual cruise ship.

 

Based on the document there is zero chance the cruiselines are sailing in 100 days unless covid just magically Disappears from the face of the earth.  

 

This.

 

I've luckily never been in the medical facility of a cruise ship, but even on the biggest ones (Oasis, for instance) I can't imagine having the space or adequate staff to provide respiratory support at sea without the risk of aerosolizing virus to someone with a sprained ankle or a suspected MI. And they're going to have to have evacuation agreements for COVID-19 using commercial assets in pretty much every port of call (and agreements they can actually get the patient to the commercial asset).

 

Basically, this is a "so you're saying there's a chance" order...

Edited April 14, 2020 by markeb

[HS2BS]

Revised order will be filed tomorrow(4/15) in the federal registry, then we will be able to see what the CDC is requiring the cruise lines to do.

 

Hal

[rimmit]

7 minutes ago, HS2BS said:

Revised order will be filed tomorrow(4/15) in the federal registry, then we will be able to see what the CDC is requiring the cruise lines to do.

 

Hal

We will see.  Given things have only gotten worse for the Ruby Princess since the last revision I don’t think it’s gonna get any better for the cruise lines.  That’s for sure.

[kwokpot]

17 minutes ago, markeb said:

 

This.

 

I've luckily never been in the medical facility of a cruise ship, but even on the biggest ones (Oasis, for instance) I can't imagine having the space or adequate staff to provide respiratory support at sea without the risk of aerosolizing virus to someone with a sprained ankle or a suspected MI. And they're going to have to have evacuation agreements for COVID-19 using commercial assets in pretty much every port of call (and agreements they can actually get the patient to the commercial asset).

 

Basically, this is a "so you're saying there's a chance" order...

My impression is that cruiselines have been cutting back on the quality of the medical staff. I remember last year there was a case where a crew member had an injury that was misdiagnosed by the medical staff and given the wrong medication. The crew member ultimately had to have his arm amputated.

Having said that I had the unfortunate medical situation 15 years ago on a Princess(!!!) ship where I had to go to the Medical Facility. I was having severe abdominal pains. When it got to painful to bare I went to seek medical help. The facility itself was extremely clean and pretty extensive I have to say. I was given an EKG and all sorts of test were done. Results were immediate and they ruled out any heart condition or appendix issues. They decided to give me morphine shots for the pain - I had two shots of morphine until the pain had subsided. I was probably in the Medical Center for 5-6 hours. Costs were around $300. It was on a TA from NY to UK - The pain was happening the night before we docked in Glasgow area. I was feeling better by early afternoon but too late to go into Glasgow! 

Edited April 14, 2020 by kwokpot

[wrk2cruise]

Just saw a post announcing Carnival is extending their suspension to late June.  The interesting thing is they were suspending 3 ships through the end of the year.  My suspicion is they are holding these ships back to use for the segregation called out in the order.   Just my opinion.   I don't know why that post was removed from the Celebrity page.  Even though it was about Carnival it's important to Celebrity customers to know what other lines are doing.

 

FYI    Carnival Corp CEO is going to be on CNBC at 4 pm today.

[kwokpot]

1 minute ago, wrk2cruise said:

Just saw a post announcing Carnival is extending their suspension to late June.  The interesting thing is they were suspending 3 ships through the end of the year.  My suspicion is they are holding these ships back to use for the segregation called out in the order.   Just my opinion.   I don't know why that post was removed from the Celebrity page.  Even though it was about Carnival it's important to Celebrity customers to know what other lines are doing.

 

FYI    Carnival Corp CEO is going to be on CNBC at 4 pm today.

The ships singled out have other issues. One of them is supposed to have a major drydock that may or may not happen. One of them is sailing out of NYC, the epicenter of the virus. The last one was supposed to have a TA to Europe them a TA back to Florida which now probably won't occur. That's why those ships have their itineraries postponed further out. 

[Artisticgirl]

37 minutes ago, wrk2cruise said:

Just saw a post announcing Carnival is extending their suspension to late June.  The interesting thing is they were suspending 3 ships through the end of the year.  My suspicion is they are holding these ships back to use for the segregation called out in the order.   Just my opinion.   I don't know why that post was removed from the Celebrity page.  Even though it was about Carnival it's important to Celebrity customers to know what other lines are doing.

 

FYI    Carnival Corp CEO is going to be on CNBC at 4 pm today.

Celebrity only has cancellations until May 11 for Europe sailings.  I'm booked for June 12th.. waiting to see if they will cancel. 

[Pushka]

5 hours ago, Charles4515 said:

 

I don’t think most people are reading the order. The content of the CDC order, the conclusions and recommendations for future sailings are much more important than quibbling over the dates. Time will tell about when sailings actually return not how long the order is in effect for now.


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That order was written carefully to prevent cruise ships from sailing unless Covid was beaten, without actually stating so. There is no way every cruise ship can meet those incredibly onerous conditions in an appropriate time in an emergency. 

[Pushka]

3 hours ago, rimmit said:

We will see.  Given things have only gotten worse for the Ruby Princess since the last revision I don’t think it’s gonna get any better for the cruise lines.  That’s for sure.

Ruby Princess has pretty much killed off cruises in Australia for quite some time. 18 deaths from that cruise, and 700 infections, and now, the cause of a shut down of two hospitals in Tasmania from infected Ruby passengers, a criminal investigation and now an independent commonwealth investigation will do that. 

[SeaHunt]

Here's the Princess extension announcement if you haven't seen it:

 

https://www.princess.com/news/notices_and_advisories/notices/global-ship-operations-pause-extended.html

[LMaxwell]

33 minutes ago, Pushka said:

Ruby Princess has pretty much killed off cruises in Australia for quite some time. 18 deaths from that cruise, and 700 infections, and now, the cause of a shut down of two hospitals in Tasmania from infected Ruby passengers, a criminal investigation and now an independent commonwealth investigation will do that. 

 

Do you have links for the latest updates w that case? I haven't looked up since early in the weekend. 

[Pushka]

6 minutes ago, LMaxwell said:

 

Do you have links for the latest updates w that case? I haven't looked up since early in the weekend. 

The stories on Ruby are updated several times a day. This is one from yesterday 

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-14/coronavirus-investigation-into-ruby-princess-will-take-months/12146398
 

This is a good website for any updates in Australia. 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/justin/

 

[LMaxwell]

9 minutes ago, Pushka said:

The stories on Ruby are updated several times a day. This is one from yesterday 

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-14/coronavirus-investigation-into-ruby-princess-will-take-months/12146398
 

This is a good website for any updates in Australia. 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/justin/

 

Thanks I'll bookmark it great 

[Pushka]

9 minutes ago, LMaxwell said:

Thanks I'll bookmark it great 

 

This website is partially Government funded, not biased toward our current Government and doesn't carry paid for ads, or celebrity trash so it is my "go to" when I really want to know the reality. 

Edited April 14, 2020 by Pushka

[TeeRick]

On 4/14/2020 at 8:33 AM, bouhunter said:

I was going to post something similar.  The "experts" in the US have openly said they are reporting corona as cause of death even if it may not have been, as long as the person tested positive for it.

 

They keep reporting the "number of cases"  (somewhere around 2,000,000 today in the US?) and death numbers.  It's entirely possible 10's of millions in the US have had it.  The mortality rate is FAR lower and this will be proven eventually once an antibody test is put in place and used extensively.

Actually according to the CDC April 14, there are 579,000 cases in the US and 22,250 deaths.

[K.T.B.]

On 4/14/2020 at 7:38 AM, WrittenOnYourHeart said:

 

Sorry, but no - not all deaths that are not obvious (stroke, heart attack, accident injuries) are being reported as COVID. To be counted as COVID they must have had a positive test. Many people are not tested either because of a lack of tests OR because tests are limited to only those who have possible TYPICAL symptoms AND pre-existing conditions. They are discovering more and more possibly symptoms, some of which seem to have nothing to do with an upper respiratory infection (fatigue, loss of appetite, and diarrhea - this per medical professionals who are seeing the wide range of symptoms with tests where people are able to get them) and so someone with those could in fact have COVID but not even seek treatment because they don't think they do. If people die without having been diagnosed with COVID, especially at home, they will likely be treated as-if, but would not be recorded as a COVID death as there was no positive test.

Not entirely correct.

 

A good friend of mine just lost their cousin a couple of weeks ago.  They had contracted COVID-19 via a hospital visit.  They had stage 4 pancreatic cancer and was living on borrowed time.  (The doctor didn't think he'd survive into February, let alone March.)  The virus had absolutely nothing to do with their death, BUT because they tested positive it was considered a "death by COVID".  The reason being, from what they were told, is the funeral home needs to know in order to protect themselves.

 

So there's at least 1 death where the virus was not the cause, but is part of the statistics.  1 death out of thousands is obviously not going to swing how the stats are read, but it does make you wonder how accurate the numbers are.  Just because they get it doesn't dying from it.  This does NOT lessen its danger though to those who are at risk.  Hopefully when things settle down a bit there will be far more accurate statistics.

[kebrown]

1 hour ago, K.T.B. said:

Not entirely correct.

 

A good friend of mine just lost their cousin a couple of weeks ago.  They had contracted COVID-19 via a hospital visit.  They had stage 4 pancreatic cancer and was living on borrowed time.  (The doctor didn't think he'd survive into February, let alone March.)  The virus had absolutely nothing to do with their death, BUT because they tested positive it was considered a "death by COVID".  The reason being, from what they were told, is the funeral home needs to know in order to protect themselves.

 

So there's at least 1 death where the virus was not the cause, but is part of the statistics.  1 death out of thousands is obviously not going to swing how the stats are read, but it does make you wonder how accurate the numbers are.  Just because they get it doesn't dying from it.  This does NOT lessen its danger though to those who are at risk.  Hopefully when things settle down a bit there will be far more accurate statistics.

I am so glad you shared your friend's experience because this is something that I have suspected for a while.  I believe that the number of deaths being reported around the world from Covid19 are not completely accurate.  I believe that some of these people who died, especially the elderly, were probably already dying from chronic medical conditions before they tested positive for Covid19.  Some of these deaths, in my opinion, are being reported as Covid19 related when in reality, some of these people probably died from preexisting conditions.  I may be wrong, but I do not believe that the number of deaths being reported from this virus is accurate.   I believe the accurate numbers are probably much lower, especially amount the people who had severe preexisting medical conditions.  

[MarLieb]

I thought I had read somewhere that this order may be updated today?  Any news?

[phoenix_dream]

31 minutes ago, kebrown said:

I am so glad you shared your friend's experience because this is something that I have suspected for a while.  I believe that the number of deaths being reported around the world from Covid19 are not completely accurate.  I believe that some of these people who died, especially the elderly, were probably already dying from chronic medical conditions before they tested positive for Covid19.  Some of these deaths, in my opinion, are being reported as Covid19 related when in reality, some of these people probably died from preexisting conditions.  I may be wrong, but I do not believe that the number of deaths being reported from this virus is accurate.   I believe the accurate numbers are probably much lower, especially amount the people who had severe preexisting medical conditions.  

On the other side of that argument, there are likely many deaths which occurred earlier this year(and perhaps end of last) that were actually caused by Covid-19, but the hospitals were not yet testing for that, and probably just assumed it was the flu or pneumonia brought on by more common ways.  Same for people who were sick, never went to the hospital, but died at home from stroke or heart attack brought on by the virus but never identified as such.

 

To me what is even more important than the number of deaths, is the death rate per infection.  With the lack of testing as well as the almost complete lack of antibody testing we have no way of knowing how many people have actually been infected with this virus.  I suspect the death rate is actually much lower than being reported but I have no data to back that up (nor does anyone have any data to refute it for that matter).

[Charles4515]

I thought I had read somewhere that this order may be updated today?  Any news?

Yes, published this morning.

https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/04/15/2020-07930/no-sail-order-and-suspension-of-further-embarkation-notice-of-modification-and-extension-and-other


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[npcl]

13 minutes ago, phoenix_dream said:

On the other side of that argument, there are likely many deaths which occurred earlier this year(and perhaps end of last) that were actually caused by Covid-19, but the hospitals were not yet testing for that, and probably just assumed it was the flu or pneumonia brought on by more common ways.  Same for people who were sick, never went to the hospital, but died at home from stroke or heart attack brought on by the virus but never identified as such.

 

To me what is even more important than the number of deaths, is the death rate per infection.  With the lack of testing as well as the almost complete lack of antibody testing we have no way of knowing how many people have actually been infected with this virus.  I suspect the death rate is actually much lower than being reported but I have no data to back that up (nor does anyone have any data to refute it for that matter).

Not very likely.  The pneumonia caused by Covid-19 is a bit unique. The Doctor that got in trouble in China for sending out warnings did so because the characteristics of the form of Pneumonia was not normal.  Is it possible a couple of cases got into the US in late December or January? Certainly.  But if it was spreading in any way it would have been quite noticeable.

[markeb]

42 minutes ago, kebrown said:

I am so glad you shared your friend's experience because this is something that I have suspected for a while.  I believe that the number of deaths being reported around the world from Covid19 are not completely accurate.  I believe that some of these people who died, especially the elderly, were probably already dying from chronic medical conditions before they tested positive for Covid19.  Some of these deaths, in my opinion, are being reported as Covid19 related when in reality, some of these people probably died from preexisting conditions.  I may be wrong, but I do not believe that the number of deaths being reported from this virus is accurate.   I believe the accurate numbers are probably much lower, especially amount the people who had severe preexisting medical conditions.  

 

Honestly, there's no way for them to be completely accurate. We're very much still in the "fog of war" stage here. This is the world's first Internet Pandemic. It's April; we're still less than 6 months into this. The first report to WHO was at the end of December, and the first recognized case was likely in November. It only seems like forever.

 

The case reporting requirements and definitions changed dramatically in the first month or so internationally. "Case" has been defined as anyone who tests positive, with or without symptoms. Post-mortem testing isn't occurring due to lack of test materials. From a pure epidemiology standpoint in an active outbreak, counting everyone who tested positive for COVID-19 as a COVID-19 death during the active management stage makes sense. But that still misses people who were never tested. It certainly includes people where the virus was at best a contributing cause of death. Eventually we'll have an estimate of the actual denominator from serosurveys and other retrospective epidemiology studies, but they don't help management at this time. They'll help actually understand the scope down the road.

 

We actually lost a family member. She was SARS-CoV-2, positive, Flu A positive, and probably septic. The Flu A and sepsis were probably the proximal cause of death and COVID-19 should be a complication. I'm sure she was reported as a COVID-19 death, and is probably on the death certificate for mortuary reasons. It's complicated.

 

And the worst thing you could do now is change the reporting definition yet again. It would just confuse everyone. Things will get revised once this is under control, whenever that is.

[MarLieb]

58 minutes ago, Charles4515 said:

 

Yes, published this morning.

https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/04/15/2020-07930/no-sail-order-and-suspension-of-further-embarkation-notice-of-modification-and-extension-and-other


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Thank you so much!  Do you happen to know if anything has changed from the last order?  I read through both and they sound the same.  Does this one re-set the clock on the 100 days?  I guess I'm just unclear as to the reason to re-publish.  Thank you!