Do you REALLY think we'll be cruising this year?

[dandee2]

21 hours ago, Fouremco said:

That would all depend on whether the countries to which the islands belong decide to permit cruise lines to allow passengers ashore. Whether a cruise line owns or leases land in a foreign state, it is subject to that country's legislation.

And if one island decide not to request proof of vaccination NO other island will accept you. They ALL play the game or you become Persona non grata in the places who requested it.

[dandee2]

4 hours ago, rimmit said:

I Also deal daily with vaccines,  just not the R&D side, so I totally agree that some vaccines have yet to be made that we are working toward, RSV being one.  We have a monoclonal antibody that I am sure you are aware of, Pavlizumab, but no vaccine yet, but there are several  in trials right now for that.  EBV, CMV,  this list is big but no HUGE players in which the whole world is focusing their attention like HIV.
 

Vaccines can be typically distributed rather quickly often requiring dry ice or ice packs And a styrofoam container Via overnight shipping.  As long as they stay refrigerated from a distribution standpoint they do pretty well.  What other distribution problems are you referring too?  
 

I agree it’s definitely not as easy as many make it seem,  but it’s a lot better option than some IV therapy.

2009 - H1N1 - 60% of the population was vaccinated in Québec over 3 months between Oct-Dec. 150 deaths Total.

[rimmit]

20 minutes ago, dandee2 said:

2009 - H1N1 - 60% of the population was vaccinated in Québec over 3 months between Oct-Dec. 150 deaths Total.

In my post I was talking about distribution.  I am confused as to the point you are making.

 

The flu vaccine is never 100 percent effective. It is very hit and miss and as you noted half the people don’t get it anyway.

[davekathy]

5 hours ago, tosteve1 said:

health problems may prevent us from cruising at all for quite some time!

Only speaking for yourself, correct? 

Edited April 24, 2020 by davekathy

[madmacs]

I understand that Carnival have enough cash to last the year out, and RCCL and NCL maybe a bit less. This clearly raises big concerns - if the cruise lines can't get back this year. I know they have assets like large ships, but if no-ne is cruising they become liabilities. I was predicting the lines had a 75% chance of surviving, if there are no cruises this year it will become less than 50/50 in my opinion. My experience was in business planning albeit in energy rather than cruising.

 

[drlucy12]

14 minutes ago, madmacs said:

I understand that Carnival have enough cash to last the year out, and RCCL and NCL maybe a bit less. This clearly raises big concerns - if the cruise lines can't get back this year. I know they have assets like large ships, but if no-ne is cruising they become liabilities. I was predicting the lines had a 75% chance of surviving, if there are no cruises this year it will become less than 50/50 in my opinion. My experience was in business planning albeit in energy rather than cruising.

 

I agree.  Cash flow becomes a HUGE problem for them if they cannot start sailing again.  Will they try to start with short cruises to the Caribbean at the end of the year to generate some revenue??  

[tosteve1]

48 minutes ago, davekathy said:

Only speaking for yourself, correct? 

I just mean the cruise lines have to manage risk. Low risk short cruises will probably be considered first. “Proof of concept” so to speak. Taking a huge ship with large numbers of high risk passengers (elderly or with multiple medical conditions) may not be their first priority. 

I have cruises scheduled January to March 2021 and I’m fully expecting some major changes in itinerary if not outright cancellations. And I could easily be considered high risk!

[dandee2]

50 minutes ago, drlucy12 said:

I agree.  Cash flow becomes a HUGE problem for them if they cannot start sailing again.  Will they try to start with short cruises to the Caribbean at the end of the year to generate some revenue??  

You only need a Hurricane between Sept and Dec to sink the idea.

[ipeeinthepool]

2 hours ago, rimmit said:

 

The flu vaccine is never 100 percent effective. It is very hit and miss and as you noted half the people don’t get it anyway.

 

The flu vaccine isn't 100% effective because they are guessing about which virus might be the one that develops during the winter.  Sometimes they guess right and sometimes not so much.  In this case the Covid-19 virus has been well identified.

Edited April 24, 2020 by ipeeinthepool

[rimmit]

8 minutes ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

The flu vaccine isn't 100% effective because they are guessing about which virus might be the one that develops during the winter.  Sometimes they guess right and sometimes not so much.  In this case the Covid-19 virus has ben well identified.

Yes I am well aware.  I spend a good chunk of my day talking to people about vaccines.  The flu mutates yearly and we guess based on the strains that are prevalent in the Southern Hemisphere for their winter season.

 

Covid has thankfully been pretty stable from what we’ve seen thus far, hopefully it stays that way.

[Happy Cruiser 6143]

59 minutes ago, dandee2 said:

You only need a Hurricane between Sept and Dec to sink the idea.

 

Actually, a ship is one of the better places to be in a hurricane.  The ship can sail away from the hurricane.  If you're on land, you're stuck.

[DWhit]

On 4/21/2020 at 10:28 AM, markeb said:

No. 

Yes, you are correct.

[davekathy]

3 hours ago, tosteve1 said:

I just mean the cruise lines have to manage risk. Low risk short cruises will probably be considered first. “Proof of concept” so to speak. Taking a huge ship with large numbers of high risk passengers (elderly or with multiple medical conditions) may not be their first priority. 

I have cruises scheduled January to March 2021 and I’m fully expecting some major changes in itinerary if not outright cancellations. And I could easily be considered high risk!

Our March ans April cruises got canceled. Saw that coming. We have another cruised booked for this September (Canada/Pacific coastal cruise) and planning on going with no itinerary changes.  Three more cruises for 2021. Looking forward to those. We are touching 70 and in excellent health.

Edited April 24, 2020 by davekathy

[Nimbet]

I have two cruises scheduled for August 2020. Many will think I’m crazy but if they aren’t cancelled I plan to go. I suspect that they will be cancelled. Definitely want the cruise credit vs refund.

Edited April 24, 2020 by Nimbet

[tosteve1]

2 minutes ago, davekathy said:

Our March ans April cruises got canceled. Saw that coming. We have another cruised booked for this September (Canada/Pacific coastal cruise) and planning on going with no itinerary changes.  Three more cruises for 2021. Looking forward to those. We are touching 70 and in excellent health.

I hope you’re right! We’ve been planning > 1 year!

[Charles4515]

Our March ans April cruises got canceled. Saw that coming. We have another cruised booked for this September (Canada/Pacific coastal cruise) and planning on going with no itinerary changes.  Three more cruises for 2021. Looking forward to those. We are touching 70 and in excellent health.

  Seven of my former coworkers that I know about that I worked with for years before I retired have passed from the Coronavirus. My cousins law partner passed away yesterday. I am in excellent health too but I won’t consider a cruise until there are drugs that will treat the virus. Probably won’t cruise until there is a vaccine unless the virus disappears.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Forums

 

 

 

[mayleeman]

Some people who were downplaying the coronavirus early on (say, mid-March) were basing their views on the fact that, back then, COVID-19 had only killed a small number compared to the seasonal flu. There are quite a few people still saying things about how we don't shut down for the flu despite it killing 35,000 to 61,000 (avg by CDC estimate) yearly in the US. Someone in my November roll call ssys the current shut down of cruising and other businesses is "disgraceful," and "shameful" so they want to be able to cruise again soon.

 

Well, we are now at 52,000+ deaths in the US, with 2,000+ more added on most days. We actually passed the number killed in the Korean War a while back (35,000), and within 3 to 4 days will pass the 58,000 Americans who lost their lives in Vietnam.

 

I am bringing these comparisons up because at least in Vietnam, we knew the deaths would stop soon when the US finally wound down its involvement. The disruptions in policy making, the social unrest, and the anger caused by that war, however, have continued for decades. 

 

The numbers are still rising rapidly, not falling, with no end in sight--at least not in the sight of anyone other than politicians who are wanting to reopen economies. 

 

When the numbers diminish to less than 100 per day, with the ability to track the sources of infection, there will be cruising. Meanwhile, we can dream but we should accept that no miracle will make this go away.

Edited April 24, 2020 by mayleeman

[davekathy]

8 minutes ago, Charles4515 said:

  Seven of my former coworkers that I know about that I worked with for years before I retired have passed from the Coronavirus. My cousins law partner passed away yesterday. I am in excellent health too but I won’t consider a cruise until there are drugs that will treat the virus. Probably won’t cruise until there is a vaccine unless the virus disappears.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Forums

 

 

 

It's all about personal choices. We are taking it one day at a time. Since March, two of our cruises were cancelled by Celebrity and we had to cancel our June land vacation that required flying. Hoping to do our July land trip and September cruise. 🤞

[davekathy]

15 minutes ago, tosteve1 said:

I hope you’re right! We’ve been planning > 1 year!

...🤞

[Charles4515]

It's all about personal choices. We are taking it one day at a time. Since March, two of our cruises were cancelled by Celebrity and we had to cancel our June land vacation that required flying. Hoping to do our July land trip and September cruise. 🤞

 

I hope they don’t start up cruises again until at minimum there are drugs that will treat the virus.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Forums

[davekathy]

1 minute ago, Charles4515 said:

 

I hope they don’t start up cruises again until at minimum there are drugs that will treat the virus.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Forums

Your choice not to cruise if Celebrity decides to start cruising before a vaccine. Again it's all about choices. We also hope there will be a vaccine soon. We like to travel and cruising is only one type of vacation we take in a years time. We'll continue to wear our rose colored glasses as our glasses are always have full.

[Charles4515]

Your choice not to cruise if Celebrity decides to start cruising before a vaccine. Again it's all about choices. We also hope there will be a vaccine soon. We like to travel and cruising is only one type of vacation we take in a years time. We'll continue to wear our rose colored glasses as our glasses are always have full.

If they restart cruises too soon and ships become hotspots again that will likely be the end of cruising. It would be better for them to wait. I also feel a responsibility to the human race that overrides my desire to cruise again soon.


Sent from my iPhone using Forums

[davekathy]

11 minutes ago, Charles4515 said:

 

If they restart cruises too soon and ships become hotspots again that will likely be the end of cruising. It would be better for them to wait. I also feel a responsibility to the human race that overrides my desire to cruise again soon.


Sent from my iPhone using Forums

 

See,that's your choice. 

[Charles4515]

See,that's your choice. 

 

That is right. I am also aware from reading these forums that there are many who are eager to cruise regardless of consequences to themselves and to others. So we must depend on the CDC and governments to make the right choice of when to permit cruises to restart.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Forums

[davekathy]

17 minutes ago, Charles4515 said:

 

That is right. I am also aware from reading these that there are many who think only of themselves. So we must depend on the CDC and governments to make the right choice of when to permit cruises to restart.


Sent from my iPhone using Forums

 

That's right.  We'll  let Celebrity decide to cancel or not to cancel our future cruises based on the experts recommendations. No kicking and screaming from us when Celebrity canceled our B2B cruise on the Summit for March and April. Life goes on. Beautiful weather here for morning walks, yard work and an occasional motorcycle ride.