Do you REALLY think we'll be cruising this year?

[rimmit]

8 minutes ago, yorky said:

Disagree on the two areas in bold above. 

I should clarify what I mean by threat.  At a level of concern for governments such they believe adherence to social distancing is still required to stem the disease.  If the government is willing to put 20,000 people into a basketball arena with no social distancing, then cruising will likely come after that.
 

Until the government is giving the OK for 20,000 people to be in close contact for 4 hours to watch a game,  they are not letting us on a boat with 5,000 with even less space for 14 straight days.

 

The CDC guidelines to meet are brutal and if not impossible to meet for cruise lines as long as covid is viewed as a threat.  No cruise line can meet them.  The US govt will have to rescind it’s view of Covid as A public health emergency in order for the CDC to reconsider their current requirements.  For them to do that the US govt would have to view Covid as not a threat.

Edited April 22, 2020 by rimmit

[sanger727]

I'm certainly no doctor or expert on vaccines. But for those that think that since our medical technology has progressed since the 50s so surely we would have a vaccine quickly; I'm not so sure. It sounds reasonable. But I did listen to a doctor who was speaking about vaccine testing on radio show recently. The issue isn't with developing the medication that in theory should produce antibodies. They already have that developed. The issue is with testing to determine (1) does the presence of antibodies produce an immune reaction (2) What level of antibodies produce an immune reaction (3) does this medication produce that level of antibodies and at what dose and (4) does this medication at this dose produce an immune reaction.

 

They haven't even figured out number 1 yet. They have to solve for 1 to make it through this process to get to number 4.  And the way they test number 4 is once they have solve for all of the others, they give the vaccine to a large scale of people in the community and wait 6 months to a year and see how many catch the virus and compare it to the number of people who catch it who didn't have the vaccine. That is why this process takes years.

 

If they could just give the vaccine in different doses to thousands of] people and then expose each of them to coronavirus and see who gets sick, then yes, they could get this done much faster. But I don't think they consider that an ethical way of doing vaccine research. I don't think this is an issue of if we have the medical technology to do it. It's an issue of how long does each step take so you can wait for natural community exposure to occur in a sufficient size group of people to then say, yes, this is effective.

 

I am sure that because of the community impact and the need that they will fast track it rather than doing the full testing a vaccine would normally get to get a gold stamp approval from the FDA under the normal process. But when we are using social distancing to avoid infecting others, we have slowed the spread which may actually make the testing harder. When we do give vaccines to people or when people do have antibodies and they don't get re-infected; is it because of social distancing or is it because of an immune response.

Edited April 22, 2020 by sanger727

[Bo1953]

7 hours ago, Ronin23 said:

It’s lees about their ability to fill ships, more about them being able to do so safely and actually having somewhere to cruise to. 

I understand your position on this.

 

I understand, if accurate, what the position of those, who per the article, are still booking sailings.

 

I only posted the article as a point of information, without prejudice despite my view on sailing.

 

bon voyage

[Bo1953]

26 minutes ago, hcat said:

Thanks for the link.. Obviously a positive outlook put forward.

One of the links in that article was also  mentioned the possibility of cruising this summer, Not sure that will happen but who knows????

Yes, I agree who really knows, except that I do not have access to any of the information that the 'professionals' are using to make the projections.

 

I cannot 'reliably' or accurately post anything supportive or debunking the posits in the article.

 

I can choose to be ready to sail when X and/or other cruise lines get the okay to do so. I do have a few booked already and waiting and luggage is ready, too!!!! LOL

 

bon voyage

[edunava]

Good morning from Barcelona.

 

It seems that there is a certain obsession with the coronavirus vaccine, I remind you that being vaccinated does not make you immune to the disease, even having overcome the coronavirus makes you safe, there are many people who have become ill again after having overcome it.
The flu vaccine has been around for many years and every winter hundreds of thousands of people die from the flu and many of them were vaccinated, which shows that a simple thing like the flu can be fatal.
Even if a coronavirus vaccine is obtained, the disease will not be eradicated and I sincerely believe that we will have to get used to it and live with the utmost precautions, but without fear or obsession, because it will be years before the solution is found and I think that the tourism and / or cruise industry can be paralyzed for so long.

 

Friends, take good care of yourselves.

Edu.

[twins_to_alaska]

No.

 

[Oceangoer2]

20 hours ago, Fouremco said:

Other countries aren't rushing as quickly to re-open, recognizing the dangers associated with doing so too soon. Consequently, even if the US is open for business, there may be nowhere to sail to. Suspending the PVSA might be one option, allowing cruises with no foreign destinations, but there are definite complications.

Very few ports nationally will accept cruise ships.  As well, there may be no airlines open to fly us to pick up a ship or take us to any land holiday.  Moot point right now and the foreseeable future.

[Oceangoer2]

8 hours ago, JRG said:

 

Everybody is crawling from the wreckage of their cruise plans and we are no exception,  but we did find opportunity in the face of adversity.   We grabbed one of the last cabins on a heavily discounted Galapagos cruise (48 passengers) in November that we otherwise would have never considered at a price we'll never see again.  If it cancels then c'est la vie .     I say take advantage of the cruiseline and airline cancellation fee waivers and use it to your advantage to find deals in future travel windows.

 

To me,  it seems like posters are polarized between the Hemingway approach (cruise like there is no tomorrow ) and the JD Salinger approach (reclusive apprehension).

 

We prefer the Hemingway approach.   For the JD Salingers of the cruising world,  never fear,  for you the sun also rises.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bridging the gap between the two approaches...quite the diplomat!

[Georgia_Peaches]

For the first time since the initial round of cancellations I am coming around to thinking that 2020 cruising season just won't happen.  And it greatly pains me to say this.  In fact, I have scoffed at the nay-sayers!  I hope I am wrong and in the event that there are cruises in 2020, I invite someone to start a thread seeking all the nay-sayers (of which I am now)  to stop by and admit they were wrong...this I will happily do. 

[EscapeFromConnecticut]

6 hours ago, upwarduk said:

Wish Celebrity would take note of this and cancel European sailings NOW.

No way will they be able to home port in Barcelona this summer.

A few weeks ago, President Macron of France suggested that all Schengin countries kept their borders shut until at least September, as he didn’t want tourists bringing a second wave of the virus to Europe.

Celebrity very much knows about it. Almost certainly learned well before the general public heard.

 

So why don't they cancel? Interest-free loan from their customers.

 

Delay cancellations as long as practical, sell new fall/winter cruises that also stand no chance of ever sailing, divert disappointed customers to FCC or else drag out their refund for three months ... repeat cycle.

 

Ponzi, meet scheme.

[TeeRick]

The OP MarkWiltonM has done a nice job in the original post explaining the concerns from many of us here.  

 

If cruising opened up this year- how many of us would still choose to go?  I do not think I would trust the cruise industry even after a few "clean" trial cruises to be honest with passengers about the lack of virus infections on their ships.  Period.  

 

I would not want to take even a small chance of being isolated or stranded on a sick ship with no where to dock.

 

I would not want to go into various ports in different countries and risk that a mini-outbreak was happening there unknown at the time.  Or that one had happened on my cruise ship and I was unaware but infecting people in ports.

 

My answer is a definite No for cruising this year.

[yorky]

25 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

The OP MarkWiltonM has done a nice job in the original post explaining the concerns from many of us here.  

 

If cruising opened up this year- how many of us would still choose to go?  I do not think I would trust the cruise industry even after a few "clean" trial cruises to be honest with passengers about the lack of virus infections on their ships.  Period.  

 

I would not want to take even a small chance of being isolated or stranded on a sick ship with no where to dock.

 

I would not want to go into various ports in different countries and risk that a mini-outbreak was happening there unknown at the time.  Or that one had happened on my cruise ship and I was unaware but infecting people in ports.

 

My answer is a definite No for cruising this year.

Personally I’m comfortable from the start of next year. However even October this year is still six months away and a lot could change by then. We are a month into lockdown and things are starting to improve with the curve now moving in the right direction.  We would probably give this year a miss if we had a cruise booked.

[TeeRick]

Just now, yorky said:

Personally I’m comfortable from the start of next year. However even October this year is still six months away and a lot could change by then. We are a month into lockdown and things are starting to improve with the curve now moving in the right direction.  We would probably give this year a miss if we had a cruise booked.

My next booked and not-cancelled cruise is currently August 2021.  I am somewhat hopeful about that one.

[MarkWiltonM]

4 hours ago, sanger727 said:

I'm certainly no doctor or expert on vaccines. But for those that think that since our medical technology has progressed since the 50s so surely we would have a vaccine quickly; I'm not so sure.

 

Found this on the CDC website: "Before a vaccine is ever given to people, FDA oversees extensive lab testing of the vaccine that can take several years to make sure it is safe and effective. After the lab, testing in people begins, and it can take several more years before the clinical studies are complete and the vaccine is licensed." 

 

Yes, they hope to speed up the process for COVID-19 but many vaccine experts are cautious/skeptical.  I am most definitely not an "anti-vaccer," but there have been vaccines that caused serious adverse reactions and this can only be determined through widespread testing over a reasonably long period of time. (This does not apply to the annual flu vaccine, which is a combination of well-known and thoroughly tested vaccines.) It's never ideal to be one of the first to try a new vaccine, unless there are compelling medical reasons that outweigh any unknown risks.  I love cruising, but not that much.  Ideally, they would find a highly effective antiviral treatment for COVID-19.  That may be faster than a vaccine.

[yorky]

22 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

My next booked and not-cancelled cruise is currently August 2021.  I am somewhat hopeful about that one.

If we feel the timing is not right in February we will move our Asia cruise through to next November. We may lose our £300 deposit because we won’t be paying the balance if unsure but we are ok with that. We had £480 in FCC deducted from the cruise total due to problems last September so may have a bit of a fight to get that moved but hopefully not. In truth moving it back would not be an issue for us, getting three weeks off in November is no more difficult than February at my project. One way or another I expect us to be cruising next year. We are 58/48 with no medical conditions.

Edited April 22, 2020 by yorky

[yorky]

12 minutes ago, MarkWiltonM said:

 

Found this on the CDC website: "Before a vaccine is ever given to people, FDA oversees extensive lab testing of the vaccine that can take several years to make sure it is safe and effective. After the lab, testing in people begins, and it can take several more years before the clinical studies are complete and the vaccine is licensed." 

 

Yes, they hope to speed up the process for COVID-19 but many vaccine experts are cautious/skeptical.  I am most definitely not an "anti-vaccer," but there have been vaccines that caused serious adverse reactions and this can only be determined through widespread testing over a reasonably long period of time. (This does not apply to the annual flu vaccine, which is a combination of well-known and thoroughly tested vaccines.) It's never ideal to be one of the first to try a new vaccine, unless there are compelling medical reasons that outweigh any unknown risks.  I love cruising, but not that much.  Ideally, they would find a highly effective antiviral treatment for COVID-19.  That may be faster than a vaccine.

I never take the flue vaccine, don’t trust it. I very much doubt I would take one for Covid 19 for the same reason.

Edited April 22, 2020 by yorky

[PROCRUISE]

Hopeful that our December cruise might go but still feel it is doubtful.

As far as a vaccine is concerned, we currently have NO vaccines against any virus. Flu shots yes, that might help lessen ones chances or if they get the flu it might be less severe but no vaccine. The death rate during the usual flu season doesn't seem to bother anyone.

 

[jonthomas]

The USA article says that so many are booking for 2021. It doesn't say, so many have worthless FCCs, that whether they believe there will be cruises or not, they are applying them to anything.

 

All cruiselines are stalling to give out any real refunds, hoping to hang on to as much money as they can to help them stay "afloat."

 

I don't think too many will be making final payments, giving more of their money away. 

 

I repeat my stand, that NO cruises for 2020 but hopeful for 2021, even that may be foolish, just aspirational. 

[basil1]

I don't know if it will happen this year. I am hoping for next year though. The thing is, that  I think people have forgotten, that the shelter in place/ stay at home orders were to flatten the curve...not eradicate the virus. Whether we stay at home for 2 more weeks or 2 more months the virus will still be there. So for those who think they can wait until it magically disappears you'll be waiting forever. Even once there is a vaccine it will be like the seasonal flu vaccine in that some people won't get the vaccine. And with the regular flu you can get the vaccine and still get the seasonal flu. That could, possibly, be the case with a covid 19 vaccine (who knows?). 

The scary thing is, as someone else said, getting stuck on a ship and not being able to dock or get off. That's just crazy!

[kwokpot]

I was watching CNBC business news channel this morning. They had the CEO of Delta airlines on. Good interview. In his opinion, the airline industry WILL NOT get back to normal, meaning business  pre Coivid19, until 2-3 years. He said that without hesitation and it wasn't even an answer to worse case scenario. So if the CEO of one of the 3 legacy airlines thinks business will take 2-3 years to get back to pre-Covid19 levels, imagine what that portends for the Cruise Industry!

[yorky]

16 minutes ago, kwokpot said:

I was watching CNBC business news channel this morning. They had the CEO of Delta airlines on. Good interview. In his opinion, the airline industry WILL NOT get back to normal, meaning business  pre Coivid19, until 2-3 years. He said that without hesitation and it wasn't even an answer to worse case scenario. So if the CEO of one of the 3 legacy airlines thinks business will take 2-3 years to get back to pre-Covid19 levels, imagine what that portends for the Cruise Industry!

I think he’s probably right, but then I think that probably also applies to many businesses .The cruise industry will obviously also take time, don’t think anyone is saying it will be back to normal levels in 6 months time.

[NantahalaCruiser]

23 hours ago, phoenix_dream said:

I think there will be some small amount of sailings beginning late this year out of the US.  I think these will be,  in essence, test runs so to speak.  I think they will be short (2-3 days), and perhaps even cruises to nowhere for people just wanting to get on a ship again.

Cruises to nowhere from US ports are currently not allowed. Would take some sort of waiver to implement one.

[NantahalaCruiser]

39 minutes ago, PROCRUISE said:

Hopeful that our December cruise might go but still feel it is doubtful.

As far as a vaccine is concerned, we currently have NO vaccines against any virus. Flu shots yes, that might help lessen ones chances or if they get the flu it might be less severe but no vaccine. The death rate during the usual flu season doesn't seem to bother anyone.

 

Flu shots are vaccines; however, they are not always useful due to the mutational variations.

[RICCruisers]

1 hour ago, yorky said:

I never take the flue vaccine, don’t trust it. I very much doubt I would take one for Covid 19 for the same reason.

You may not have choice about getting the vaccine. If an effective one is developed, cruise  companies may make it a requirement to board the ship. 

[dallasdan]

I don't get a flu shot, so I wouldn't take a Covid 19 vaccine shot either.  So if they implemented a policy of requiring a vaccine to sail, then my cruise days would be over.  However, I don't see how they can implement a policy like that.  There are many different reasons why some people wouldn't get the vaccine.  Also, how would prove it.  A note from a doctor?