August start-up

[navybankerteacher]

How likely do you think it is that the early August cruises scheduled to sail from Florida and Texas ports will actually sail? Given the strong uptick in infections in both states, might their governments re-think the rapid re-opening they have so far permitted.

 

 Also, will many people think it advisable to fly into those states?

 

Finally, will the lines themselves want to board people who have flown in, or who have lived among a population with steadily increasing infections?

Edited June 18, 2020 by navybankerteacher

[Heidi13]

With the virus numbers in both those States, we would not consider flying into any of their ports, even if the border was open.

[Nic6318]

Hi

 

If you were a healthy person working on one of these ships, would you seriously pull up to POM and just say "Welcome back folks, have a good time". 

 

Who knows, another month or so and it might all go away. 😃

[lenquixote66]

4 hours ago, navybankerteacher said:

How likely do you think it is that the early August cruises scheduled to sail from Florida and Texas ports will actually sail? Given the strong uptick in infections in both states, might their governments re-think the rapid re-opening they have so far permitted.

 

 Also, will many people think it advisable to fly into those states?

 

Finally, will the lines themselves want to board people who have flown in, or who have lived among a population with steadily increasing infections?

No,no and no.My prediction in March was no cruising leaving from a US port until 2021 at the earliest.

[Joebucks]

I don't see it happening. Too much activity less than 2 months away.

[navybankerteacher]

I just checked a travel web site which shows upcoming cruises.  They indicate that there are seven August Carnival sailings from Galveston which are sold out - and a larger number from Florida ports also sold out.   I guess the customer base is still there.

 

Wow!

[RocketMan275]

4 hours ago, navybankerteacher said:

How likely do you think it is that the early August cruises scheduled to sail from Florida and Texas ports will actually sail? Given the strong uptick in infections in both states, might their governments re-think the rapid re-opening they have so far permitted.

 

 Also, will many people think it advisable to fly into those states?

 

Finally, will the lines themselves want to board people who have flown in, or who have lived among a population with steadily increasing infections?

Is there a "strong uptick" or is this "strong uptick" a result of more testing? We should see an increase in deaths if infections were increasing but weekly fatalities are down 40% from a month ago in Texas.

 

  In Texas, weekly fatalities are down 40% from a month ago.

[bigrednole]

I don't see August happening and glad we moved our August cruise when we did. Back then the cruise was $2,400 for a balcony room. The same room is $5,300 now. If we waited, we would not be able to take a cruise over Thanksgiving and that would have pushed us to Easter.

[navybankerteacher]

59 minutes ago, RocketMan275 said:

Is there a "strong uptick" or is this "strong uptick" a result of more testing? We should see an increase in deaths if infections were increasing but weekly fatalities are down 40% from a month ago in Texas.

 

  In Texas, weekly fatalities are down 40% from a month ago.

But hospitalizations are sharply up from a couple of weeks ago - and fatalities are climbing as well.  The fact is, it takes a while for people to sicken, and then, in extreme cases, to die - so the harvest from the surge in infections following the Memorial Day irresponsibility has yet to come in.

[BSR]

My cruise in August was canceled.   I don't think there will be any sailings in August. 

[Nic6318]

16 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

But hospitalizations are sharply up from a couple of weeks ago - and fatalities are climbing as well.  The fact is, it takes a while for people to sicken, and then, in extreme cases, to die - so the harvest from the surge in infections following the Memorial Day irresponsibility has yet to come in.

 

Hi 

Don't forget that the more susceptible (older &/or compromised) would have been the first to succumb. All that means is that there could be a slowing of deaths at this time,  only to see it grow as well, if the new case #'s continue to grow. If hospitalizations increase, the number of deaths will also increase. That would only be natural unless a specific change to treatment improves the survival rate. 

 

Just as you only had to wait a few weeks to see the effects of a relaxation in restrictions, you would only have to wait another 3-4 wks. to see if fatalities are actually declining or have just paused. 

 

Without any real effort in containment, why would anyone expect this to go away? All I hear is that we will be living with this for a undetermined time. Would you rather go forward with the numbers going up or down? I do believe we understand what it takes to bring those numbers down. I think it is up to each of us to do what we can. If enough people say they can't/won't do what it takes, the the end is already written. 

[Smurf2017]

Now throw in the announcement today from Carnival that they are selling 6 ships and I think we can all see where this is going. 

[lifes-a-beach]

The reported hospitalizations in Texas was 2,326 on Monday. 

 

Since mid-May tests in Florida were mandated for long term care facilities and jails.  This had the logical result of more positive results. 

 

As for deaths, Texas is reporting 2,117 out of a population of 29,000,000. 

 

Florida reports 3,064 deaths out of a population of 21,480,000. 

 

 

 

 

[navybankerteacher]

1 hour ago, lifes-a-beach said:

The reported hospitalizations in Texas was 2,326 on Monday. 

 

Since mid-May tests in Florida were mandated for long term care facilities and jails.  This had the logical result of more positive results. 

 

As for deaths, Texas is reporting 2,117 out of a population of 29,000,000. 

 

Florida reports 3,064 deaths out of a population of 21,480,000. 

 

 

 

 

Yes - a low percentage.  Can you advise how many thousand deaths would justify real controls, strictly enforced?

 

Or is it immaterial as long as most of them are older than you?

[evandbob]

It's not only the COVID situation in the homeports that cruisers need to be concerned with - how about the ports of call they will visit?  Will there be restrictions on what activities are available, will tour buses be half filled?  Forget snorkeling, and don't even think of snorkeling with a rental mask, UGH!

 

Would cruisers be allowed outside of the port area without a negative COVID test?  Or will everyone be forced to stay on the ship?  Some Caribbean ports are just now re-opening to limited and restricted air travelers only and have not mentioned any easing of cruise line bans.

[RocketMan275]

2 hours ago, navybankerteacher said:

But hospitalizations are sharply up from a couple of weeks ago - and fatalities are climbing as well.  The fact is, it takes a while for people to sicken, and then, in extreme cases, to die - so the harvest from the surge in infections following the Memorial Day irresponsibility has yet to come in.

First, Memorial Day was the 25th of May.  It's been over three weeks since then.  Two weeks is the usual quarantine time to allow infections to surface.  IOW, there's been plenty of time for that "harvest" to "come in".

Second, IIRC, the principal reasons given for these protocols was to 'flatten the curve' and to ensure the virus did not saturate ICU hospital beds.  The latest figures for Texas show less than 11% of the ICU beds are taken by virus patients.  

The real reason behind the increase in reported infections is the wide-availability of testing.  Anyone can get tested now for practically any reason.  BTW, in my home town the biggest public hospital reports: “We have tested hundreds of asymptomatic patients that are coming in for elective procedures, and we’ve had one test positive,” he said. “So, candidly, I would have thought we’d have more, test positive.”

 

And this: "Currently just under 3 percent of the County residents who’ve been tested — have tested positive."

 

[lifes-a-beach]

1 hour ago, navybankerteacher said:

Yes - a low percentage.  Can you advise how many thousand deaths would justify real controls, strictly enforced?

 

Or is it immaterial as long as most of them are older than you?

No need to be snarky.

 

I made four statements of fact.  

 

To your first question I must say no, I can’t.  What I do know is that we do not have to speculate on the number of deaths caused by poverty.  We do not have to speculate on the chronic health problems associated with poverty.  We do not have to speculate on the numbers of deaths associated with consumption of drugs and alcohol, particularly by those living in poverty.  Whatever your idea of “real controls strictly enforced” is, if that includes shutting down the economy and putting 60,000,000 people out of work and creating generational poverty I must object.  If, however, those ideas include suggesting that all Americans at risk wear a face covering when in public, wash their hands often for at least 20 seconds, practice social distancing and stay at home if they are sick, I fully support those recommendations which, by the way, haven’t changed.  

 

And speaking of immaterial, your second question truly is.

[chipmaster]

5 hours ago, RocketMan275 said:

Is there a "strong uptick" or is this "strong uptick" a result of more testing? We should see an increase in deaths if infections were increasing but weekly fatalities are down 40% from a month ago in Texas.

 

  In Texas, weekly fatalities are down 40% from a month ago.

 

Let's see in two weeks

[clo]

29 minutes ago, lifes-a-beach said:

 If, however, those ideas include suggesting that all Americans at risk wear a face covering when in public,

Which California mandated today.

[CruiserBruce]

We need to be able to think and analyze these stats a little more. We need to be asking questions like:

 

What is the percentage of positives in testing? There has been a lot of talk about spikes in Florida. They had been averaging 4-5% positives in tests...an acceptable level by most scientists. But over the last 7 or so days, they have trended up to 7%. Most states are using 8% as a redline, so a problem would seem to be developing, even if the Governor wants to ignore or deny it. This takes out "increasing testing" out as a cause of more cases.

 

Yes, increasing testing could mean more cases. But if it's only RNA testing, that means current active sickness, not past sickness. So that means relatively new sick people, and the problem is there...Covid is actively spreading. If it includes antibody tests, which seem to have poor accuracy (RNA tests have pretty good accuracy for current active disease), then it's a different set of stats and meanings. 

[navybankerteacher]

1 hour ago, lifes-a-beach said:

No need to be snarky.

 

I made four statements of fact.  

 

To your first question I must say no, I can’t.  What I do know is that we do not have to speculate on the number of deaths caused by poverty.  We do not have to speculate on the chronic health problems associated with poverty.  We do not have to speculate on the numbers of deaths associated with consumption of drugs and alcohol, particularly by those living in poverty.  Whatever your idea of “real controls strictly enforced” is, if that includes shutting down the economy and putting 60,000,000 people out of work and creating generational poverty I must object.  If, however, those ideas include suggesting that all Americans at risk wear a face covering when in public, wash their hands often for at least 20 seconds, practice social distancing and stay at home if they are sick, I fully support those recommendations which, by the way, haven’t changed.  

 

And speaking of immaterial, your second question truly is.

There is a wide difference between shutting down the economy and doing nothing to contain contagion.   The primary problem in places like Texas and Florida is that people seemed to resist the notion of containment — no REQUIREMENT for masks or social distancing, no gradual and monitored reopening - just a bunch of yahoos hanging out together as though there was NOTHING  to be concerned with.

 

CT, NY and NJ are reopening - getting back to life as normal as possible - but still REQUIRING (not suggesting) precautions.  I guess it takes a real scare to get a critical mass of the population to take things seriously.  Unfortunately, I believe that Texas and Florida, among other areas, need to start taking things seriously - it’s not just increased testing that is doing things — it is increased infections leading to increased hospitalizations:  the real situation.

[BSR]

56 minutes ago, clo said:

Which California mandated today.

Our Governor issued a statewide order that will require people to wear masks in most indoor settings and outdoors when distancing isn’t possible.

[clo]

40 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

There is a wide difference between shutting down the economy and doing nothing to contain contagion.

There must be a word for it but I don't know it. There seem to be people who present very extreme either/or scenarios. 

[navybankerteacher]

3 minutes ago, clo said:

There must be a word for it but I don't know it. There seem to be people who present very extreme either/or scenarios. 

“Stupid” or “irresponsible” comes to mind - I think one or the other covers it.

[lifes-a-beach]

9 hours ago, navybankerteacher said:

There is a wide difference between shutting down the economy and doing nothing to contain contagion.   The primary problem in places like Texas and Florida is that people seemed to resist the notion of containment — no REQUIREMENT for masks or social distancing, no gradual and monitored reopening - just a bunch of yahoos hanging out together as though there was NOTHING  to be concerned with.

 

CT, NY and NJ are reopening - getting back to life as normal as possible - but still REQUIRING (not suggesting) precautions.  I guess it takes a real scare to get a critical mass of the population to take things seriously.  Unfortunately, I believe that Texas and Florida, among other areas, need to start taking things seriously - it’s not just increased testing that is doing things — it is increased infections leading to increased hospitalizations:  the real situation.

“...no gradual and monitored reopening”?  Texas’ Governor has done exactly that and continues to.  You can read for yourself, although it is not exactly a page turner.  You also may not know that the individual counties in Texas have the authority to require measures which are not mandated statewide.  

 

https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/coronavirus/opentexas.aspx

 

If by “...people seem to resist the notion of containment” you mean the wearing of masks and social distancing, I agree.  Some more than others.  There is definitely a feeling in many counties that one should decide for one’s self rather than tolerate such “REQUIREMENTS”.  I am personally grateful that Texas continues to take the matter seriously while respecting the rights of local populations to decide for themselves using real data and yes, noting hospital capacity and especially ER capacity. 

 

Its unfortunate that that your perception is of “a bunch of yahoos”.  One can certainly choose to only see that demographic in any state or country they choose - they most certainly exist - but it doesn’t make it true of the general population.  I feel that as long as consistent common sense prevails Texas will be fine.  I don’t presume to know anything about Connecticut, New York or New Jersey.  

 

Edited June 19, 2020 by lifes-a-beach